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Travel / Re: Canada Visit/tourist Visa Discussion. by erwinschro: 4:37pm On Jan 21 |
Hi All, I applied for a visit visa on November 23rd and my biometric letter was sent on Dec 5th. My biometrics are still valid till 2026 and I volunteered to update my biometrics so that I could get a longer validity visa. I didn’t read it closely and I thought I had 90 days to submit it but the BIL actually expired on the 5th of January. On the IRCC portal my biometrics appears as completed on 24th November (the day after I applied). Can I still request for a new BIL via the web form or will I have to apply all over again? |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 4:58pm On Jun 13, 2023 |
+60% on Access since this post at the start of the year. I knew it was cheap but I never expected this performance in my wildest dreams. I would have been very content with this performance over the course of 2-3 years. As for the company itself, they are doing the damn thing. 186bn LTM profits, but N100bn or so in impairments just for Ghana so the performance is actually delicious. Me and Herbert Wigwe don enter one knicker. We pin here erwinschro: 1 Like |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 2:37am On Jun 12, 2023 |
essentialone: Last week or so |
Politics / Re: Nigerian Bonds Post Huge Gains On News Of A Possible Tinubu Win - Bloomberg by erwinschro: 2:52am On Feb 28, 2023 |
"“Tinubu, who we perceive as being the least market-friendly of the three main candidates, is currently in the driver’s seat, but it is still early days and the positive reaction in Nigerian credit could indicate that markets think Obi stands a fighting chance,” said Patrick Curran, a senior economist at Tellimer Ltd. “There is likely to be a positive macro policy shift at the margin no matter who wins the election.” Sensationalist headline and isn't the gotcha moment some jagabandits think it is |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 6:45am On Jan 04, 2023 |
Agbalowomeri: I totally agree with you that those metrics have a large effect on short-term repricing and Access is not great in those metrics. Everyone has what they are looking for in the market and I am not looking for a quick repricing so I didn't write my response from that perspective. Like I said, I think the market is punishing them for the dividend payout and to me it's unjustified. Our market has a strong taste for dividends because our macro environment forces investors to demand more of their profits up-front. But what really matters from a value perspective is the *ability* to pay dividends (or otherwise return cash to shareholders) in the future. That ability comes from cash profits minus whatever amount you need to spend to maintain your competitive position and unit volume. Out of 150bn cash profits, Access kept N120bn to finance acquisitions but it doesn't cost that much money to maintain their volume or competitive position. So projecting into the future it's a potential double whammy of expanding payouts on increasing profits. I believe that they can continue to expand that ability at satisfying rates for me, but everyone has to make that determination themselves 6 Likes |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 12:42pm On Jan 03, 2023 |
Abbasmh: Both are good banks but I like access more at current prices for the following reasons: Access bank is the largest bank in Nigeria by assets, customer base and deposits but on a relative valuation basis, Access is the cheapest T1 bank. They earned N4.85/share in the last 12 months and trading at N8.50 - just 1.7x earnings which is the cheapest of all the banks. Access along with UBA also trade at the lowest multiple to book value in the industry (0.3x). In other words, a bank with over N1trn shareholder's funds and almost N11 trillion in customer deposits that earned N175bn in last twelve months is trading at a market capitalization of less than N300bn. Perhaps the market perceives more risk in Access and I can't pretend to be able to evaluate that accurately but I don't think they are that much less disciplined in lending than any other bank. What I think is more likely is that they are being punished for their relatively low dividend payout, which I think is unjustified. They have a lot of free cash and can probably double their dividend at any time they decide to slow down with the acquisitions. They are in a growth phase and surely can't keep swallowing other banks and financial institutions at this pace forever. The icing on the cake for me was that Herbert Wigwe bought almost N1bn worth of shares in November at an average price of about N8. Many people don't give any weight to insider dealings because you can't know what drives their decisions. The way I see it; there are many reasons why an insider may sell shares that have nothing to do with underlying business value but there can only be one reason why they are buying. 16 Likes |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 2:03am On Dec 30, 2022 |
essentialone: There was nothing mysterious about Meyer, at the end of 2021 it was trading below 50% of its liquidation value and at one point even below its net cash. Almost impossible to lose money when you buy at that price. These kinds of mispricings will come about relatively frequently in stocks as thinly traded as that. Most investors will choose to ignore such clear opportunities because of the low trading liquidity which for Meyer is about N2m monthly so building a position that will actually move the needle in your portfolio will take too long and require you to account for a ridiculous % of trading volume while somehow not moving the price too much. For anyone investing sums of less than N1m you can probably compound at 30-50% per year trading these types of stocks, but very quickly you become too big for such trades to be meaningful so you move on to other opportunities, which is precisely why these mispricings will always exist for those with small sums 4 Likes 1 Share |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 12:09am On Dec 28, 2022 |
emmanuelewumi: BUA Foods and PRESCO also above 40% I think |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 1:39pm On Dec 25, 2022 |
emmanuelewumi: I quite like the sustainable growth method and I agree I think this definitely falls into the category of great company selling at a fair price With current Book Value Per Share of N52.7 and 16% sustainable growth rate, after 10 years the book value per share should be N229 at the end of year 10. If nestle maintains their ROE of 113, then that will be N258 in y10 earnings. At the same PE ratio of 16 that is an expected price of N4,128. Dividends have been growing roughly with inflation so you will get at least N1000+ in dividends over 10 years If you pay N980 then the implied 10 year return is (5128/980)^(1/10)-1 which is a rate of return of 17% and I probably understated the total dividends and Nestle's historical PE is more like 34x over the last 10 years. 3 Likes |
Investment / Re: Us Stocks Pick Alert by erwinschro: 12:43pm On Dec 25, 2022 |
yok: There are a lot of good deals in shipping right now because the general outlook on shipping prices next year has caused the market to behave irrationally in pricing. It's interesting how technicals show something about fundamentals The price to ship a container completely crashed this year and every analyst is predicting even lower prices when the recession materializes. However, the outlook cannot be bleak enough to justify the valuations. $ZIM is also a shipping company but domiciled in Israel. They generated $49 in owner's earnings per share in the last 12 months but it is selling for $17 per share. Before I go into all of the other reasons why this is fantastically mispriced, let's even just think about it from the perspective of the business owners: You own half of $ZIM shipping company with 11 ships that made $5.9bn profit in the last 12 months and you and your partner each received a dividend of $1.6bn. Your company has $3.5bn in cash, another $9bn in assets and only $6bn liabilities. Now we are at the end of the year and your partner Mr. Market has heard that shipping prices will crash next year so he is offering you the other 50% of the company for $1bn. It sounds to good to be true, yet that is exactly what Mr. NYSE is doing. |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 1:59pm On Dec 22, 2022 |
yMcy56: Thank you it seems that they were trying to dribble me then |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 1:41am On Dec 20, 2022 |
perfectgen: Since you picked these two companies I assume that you like or understand the economics of those businesses: 85 kobo is probably cheap for SCOA on a statistical basis, but it is an illiquid kobo stock so you won't be able to get many shares without affecting the price. RT briscoe faces the same liquidity issue and they have also lost money every year since 2017 and they have N18 billion in short term borrowings against around N3bn current assets (N9bn total assets). Just my view from a quick glance so make sure to do your research maybe they have something else going on 1 Like |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 11:58am On Dec 16, 2022 |
https://businessday.ng/companies/article/nigerias-sec-says-to-rebuild-e-dividend-platform/ These people have started again. I hope we won't have to start filling forms that we've done before. Still having issues finding some 'shareholder account numbers' for e-dividend mandate 1 Like |
Travel / Re: General USA Student Visa Enquiries-part 17 by erwinschro: 10:58am On Aug 25, 2022 |
apieceofpeace: There is no email after this as far as I am aware. Put your passport number into the tracking page on ustraveldocs and it should say ready for collection. I received the email that it has been picked up 4pm on a Tuesday and I picked it up first thing the next morning. From walter carrington to muri okunlola cannot be more than 20 minutes journey, so if it isn't available for pick up today then certainly by tomorrow. Congrats |
Travel / Re: General USA Student Visa Enquiries-part 17 by erwinschro: 2:56pm On Aug 15, 2022 |
nenyecarino: Change of status is possible theoretically and is supposed to cost around $460 which I guess is cheaper than flying back to Nigeria. The issue is that nowadays processing times are 11-23 months so it is unlikely you can maintain B1/B2 status for that long, and you cannot under any circumstances enroll in classes while on a B1/B2 visa. Moving from one state to another in the US does not change your status and again you have to be EXTREMELY careful not to do anything school related while visiting because they will certainly check this at whatever point you try to change your status. The only realistic choice is to leave the US and re-enter on F1. Thankfully you don't have to come back to Nigeria to do this. You can just go to Canada or Mexico for a weekend and re-enter on f1. Mexico might be easier because you don't need a Mexican visa if you already have a US visa. The laws are nuanced so make sure you know them well so that you can be clear with border officials that you will not be violating the terms of either visas when applying for entry. 13 Likes 1 Share |
Travel / Re: General USA Student Visa Enquiries-part 17 by erwinschro: 3:35pm On Aug 12, 2022 |
Cyingfreeman: I think this is a much better situation but because your interview is before the start date and you have permission to resume late so it shouldn't stop them from giving you a visa in theory. At least if I was in your position I would still carry on and not defer. I don't know what the actual timeline is to receive your passport but its supposed to be 3-5 business days. If you think you can collect your passport and *arrive* in the US by the 26th at the latest then by the grace of God you should be fine, although you might get tough questions at the port of entry |
Travel / Re: General USA Student Visa Enquiries-part 17 by erwinschro: 9:40am On Aug 12, 2022 |
ciarasommy: I think you 100% can be denied for this. Overall, your start date on your I20 is what matters. Even if they give you the visa, you can be denied at the port of entry if you arrive after the start date on your I20. The school is able to give you permission to arrive 1 week late, and in most circumstances this should be fine at the port of entry and they understand the sort of backlogs we have in Nigeria. Anything after 1 week and the chances at the port of entry get dicey. So if your visa appointment is already 1 week after your start date and it takes another 3-5 days to get your passport then the best option is to defer. The consular officers also know this, and likely won't grant you a visa if you will be arriving at the port of entry 2 weeks after the start date. I was in the embassy this morning and it was mostly F1 and they made it a point to tell all the people they gave visas not to arrive after their program start date or they will be sent back to Nigeria 5 Likes 2 Shares |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 2:51pm On Jul 22, 2022 |
emmanuelewumi: Is that not still a form of lending? Debt is debt |
Politics / Re: Your State And Who You Are Supporting For The 2023 Election by erwinschro: 11:27am On Jun 18, 2022 |
HaHaHa Bello don give us wotowoto tire for Kogi state no wonder everyone is so Obidient 4 Likes |
Politics / Re: Your State And Who You Are Supporting For The 2023 Election by erwinschro: 11:02am On Jun 18, 2022 |
I am a Yoruba Muslim from Kogi state but I was born and grew up in Lagos. I have a large and diverse family with a Christian Mother and Muslim dad who each have 10 siblings of their own. My direct family; siblings, parents, real aunties and uncles, and first cousins is well over 60 adults. Every single one of us is seriously Obidient. Not only are we voting we are actively campaigning not just in our hometown in Kogi but also our various places of residence all over the country. 9 Likes |
Politics / Re: Peter Obi Joins Labour Party, To Contest For President by erwinschro: 4:03am On May 28, 2022 |
casualobserver: People like you don't vote lmao. You are still waiting for Tafawa Balewa or Awo or Sardauna to save you. I am going to build a monstrosity of a structure for LP in my wards. Take this as my final response, congratulations on wasting few minutes of my life |
Politics / Re: Peter Obi Joins Labour Party, To Contest For President by erwinschro: 9:12pm On May 27, 2022 |
casualobserver: You are talking about a man who was governor of Anambra for 8 years under APGA when it was a PDP parliament. He did it successfully the. And he will do it now. We do not need lofty 30 year plans. Our situation is dire. We spend almost 100% of revenues servicing debts and interest rates are rising globally. We need fiscal responsibility and we need to tighten our belts. Nigerians will have to suffer to fix this issue. Nigerians will not accept that suffering from criminals who are so obviously sharing the milk and honey of Nigeria in front of our eyes. I believe he is someone that can sell that message, he can create the political will to challenge and actually take down some of the vested interests in the country. Or we can take a chance with 76 year old Atiku or Buhari’s handpicked successor. Your vote, your choice |
Politics / Re: Peter Obi Joins Labour Party, To Contest For President by erwinschro: 8:07pm On May 27, 2022 |
casualobserver: You are setting the HIGHEST benchmark for this man when we are governed by literal, actual, criminals? From my knowledge of politics, full manifesto's come AFTER candidates have secured the tickets which Peter Obi only did a matter of HOURS ago. Please do not try to use these epistle's to bully people. You are well informed but you clearly don't know all and you have not watched all of Peter Obi's speeches. He has said over and over again how we can take the Bangladeshi and vietnamese models of exporting clothes! We have the skillset and women are always the biggest beneficiaries! Both of those countries earn more exporting clothes than we do oil! |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 7:51pm On May 27, 2022 |
megawealth01: you don collect wotowoto tire for there abi � 8 Likes |
Politics / Re: Peter Obi Supporters Are Bullies, Don't Bully Me To Support Him- Mr Macaroni by erwinschro: 1:16pm On May 26, 2022 |
AsampeteNwaanyi: You want nigeria to continue the way it is? |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 12:06pm On May 26, 2022 |
RabbiDoracle: erwinschro: You are there 2 Likes |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 7:29am On May 25, 2022 |
onegentleguy: Not fretting, I am implying that this rise in rates may be exactly the catalyst needed to move the stubborn bank stocks 1 Like |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 12:12am On May 25, 2022 |
The last time CBN was this hawkish was 2016. MPC meeting march 2016 they raised rates 100 bps from 11 to 12%. They raised them again 200bps in july 2016 from 12 to 14% which remained unchanged till 2019. Correlation is not causation, but I suggest you investigate what happened to FUGAZ from march 2016 3 Likes |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 11:55am On May 17, 2022 |
ololufemi: hmm are you sure this #4 is not coming to pass |
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 7:06pm On May 16, 2022 |
onegentleguy: I'm enjoying it |
Investment / Re: Crypto Currency Investors Thread by erwinschro: 8:09am On May 16, 2022 |
seankafor: LOL did you know in the last 7 years Meffy has helped FG print 18 Trillion Naira? Covid was nothing . The difference is if fiat currencies hyperinflate (aka go to 0) it is a total wealth destruction event almost no one can escape it. There will almost always be a new internal order in your county and some form of wealth re-distribution. If you lose all your money in crypto and the regular economy continues as is you are in big trouble. It is all bad, but if Naira or USD goes down at least I know it is the whole country that is also going down 6 Likes |
Investment / Re: Crypto Currency Investors Thread by erwinschro: 6:49am On May 16, 2022 |
ThisisIkemefuna: Ok this is semantics. It is a fair attestion of value by a top international accounting firm. It is not just cash, but the firm does not think that they have misrepresented the value of their assets. Look, I have nothing to gain here and I am not trying to present myself as an expert on crypto - in fact I have never invested in cryptocurrency. What I do not like is securities fraud, and my countrymen losing their life savings to foreign ponzi schemers. Everything I have said anyone can look up for themselves, infact I ENCOURAGE you to. 7 Likes |
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