₦airaland Forum

Nigeria recorded its highest trade surplus in six years in 2025 — and it only took 9 months to achieve

2020
Exports: N12.52trn
Imports: N12.70trn
Total trade: N25.22trn
Trade balance: -N178.26bn (deficit)

2021
Exports: N18.91trn
Imports: N20.84trn
Total trade: N39.75trn
Trade balance: -N1.94trn (deficit)

2022
Exports: N26.80trn
Imports: N25.59trn
Total trade: N52.39trn
Trade balance: N1.21trn (surplus)

2023
Exports: N35.96trn
Imports: N30.86trn
Total trade: N66.83trn
Trade balance: N5.10trn (surplus)

2024
Exports: N77.44trn
Imports: N60.59trn
Total trade: N138.03trn
Trade balance: N16.85trn (surplus)

2025*
Exports: N66.16trn
Imports: N46.84trn
Total trade: N113.00trn
Trade balance: N19.34trn (surplus)

*2025 data is for Jan-Sep

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Streetinvestor2:
Build the reserve or borrow our lives out.Why can't our own reserve grow in organic ways.is this not indirectly defending the naira by F government. U think the FDI don't know that the reserve is just being packaged by FPI

Question 1: How much foreign loans have we borrowed since May 2023?

Question 2: By how much have the reserves grown since May 2023?

ositadima1:
Most people don’t get it. We said as far back as 2023 that the market was undergoing a repricing. I used to buy Hero for ₦250, but it repriced multiple times , to ₦300, then ₦500 (₦400 in some places), then ₦800 (₦700 in some places), and finally to the current ₦1000.

It’s not just beer. Almost everything in the market has repriced. The same LG washing machine I bought for ₦40,000 is now ₦150,000. How do you expect the stocks of companies whose plants and physical assets have also repriced upwards to remain the same?

Like you said, much of the appreciation we saw may simply be repricing, not “growth” in the real sense. I don’t have the strength right now, but one way to look at it is to compare the price of these stocks from 2023 in dollar terms versus their current dollar value, assuming the dollar maintained constant value. (Yes, even the dollar has lost some value, but it’s still the best benchmark we have.)

But so many stocks (including the ASI) have also appreciated in dollar terms compared to 2023. I believe Statisense have done these comparisons with May 2023 more than once. If you are comparing the stock market to 2013 and 2014 then you may have a point.

Streetinvestor2:
So ur so called stable naira at #1447 and stable fuel at #940 is what is making food price down.Why are the prices of finished goods in provisions, cosmetics, building materials,drugs etc not down..
The harvest improved and this is harvest season. The high cost of food in the past yrs was because of so much insecurity in the North.The devaluation/ subsidy removal pushed it to unbearably level. This forced the south into farming. . The vegetables yam,potatoes,rice etc supporting price now is because thr are harvest from everywhere not like before we all was depending on north supply mostly. The food stuff we left for North to farm whr heavily grown too in the south.
Why is the price of meat and fish of any type not coming down
Your failed government management of the economy has improved nothing

At least we agree devaluation and fuel subsidy removal were also responsible for the abnormal food price hike in 2023 and 2024.
If money supply does not reduce and FX rate/ inflation keep rising, all of what you mentioned would mean nothing because food prices would still be indirectly affected. The price of meat, fish and finished goods may be high but they are not rising fast compared to 2024 and this is due to effective monetary policy and FX rate stability.

Streetinvestor2:
This is harvest season so nothing special has this government done.

I disagree. 2023/2024 harvest season still had food inflation rising for the most part although increase in PMS prices from 650 to over 1000 in October/November 2024 contributed to the rising food inflation then. Nevertheless, even in March/April 2025, there was no real spike in food inflation.
This has more to do with a stable naira and other monetary policies as well as stable energy prices.

ogawisdom:
Cost of cars have not reduced at all and most imported items.

Yes food prices have crashed by over 70% in some cases and still coming down. Food is nothing now everyone can afford the basic ones

Food is the most important in the case of Nigeria. If food becomes more affordable for the poor, then we are on our way out of the crises.

This video is spot on though I would put Egypt at no 4 and replace Zambia with Dr Congo.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8OAGwC2Eak?si=gGjZlsGvC9LuORit

iskalamong:
Nice observation.

How consistent has this been?

I am asking to know if its just a theoretical concept or if there are empirical evidence.

Pardon my curiousity.

This is an area I have not looked into previously.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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In this case, it’s merely theoretical. The previous spike in money supply (M1 &M2) had more to do with years of printing (especially in 2022 and 2023) as well as the depreciation of the naira in 2023 and early 2024. Once we stopped printing too much and increased interest rate to match inflation, the depreciation was bound to slow down (and even stop) and then with that, a slow down in money supply.
So in this case, it’s different because the money supply of 2023 and 2024 were not due to accelerated GDP growth or any form of economic expansion from credit but rather naira unification of 2023 and 2024 coupled with heavy printing by the CBN in 2022 and 2023 especially.

Money supply growth continue to decline in 2025 which means inflation would be on a downward trend for the foreseeable future. You can see how high it was in 2024.

Gerrard59:
Perceived access or closeness to people with illegal money, and maybe it is a southern thing because we are southerners. Or do northerners share similar views about money?

You can see such in Lagos and other cities in the south. But is it rampant across Northern Nigeria as well?

It’s all about exaggeration most times and the need for validation or to promote a false image. Southern Nigeria mostly guilty.

mikeapollo:
If the CGT madness is not reversed, virtually every stock will be affected. Some may be affected more or quicker than others, but all stocks will get a hit eventually and it would be opportunity for bargain hunters to accumulate.

I don’t see how the current bearish market is related to CGT.

Heishere:
How does this address his concern?

What was his concern? I am saying the rates are nothing new. We have always had 7 to 9% rates for Eurobonds even when they were not as oversubscribed. No one was expecting the rates to be lower than 8% in the first place so it hardly matters here.

Potvalor:
Exactly, this explains the oversubcription. USA Federal bonds hovers around 4.0-4.5% yield, so a 9ja Eurobond of 8-9% yield is very attractive to both local and foreign investors. Which isn't necessarily a good thing for Nigeria in the long term with our rising debt servicing cost and static dollar revenue. So I don't get why we are the celebrating the oversubscription news.

I don’t think Naija Eurobond has ever been less than 7% for a long time now. There is usually a 3% country risk they add to what should have been 4-5%.

Namaster:
Thanks for pointing this out.

It's s ALARMING.
But also very FUNNY.


The person complaining about FAKE news related to the New Tax Laws is the number one spreader of fake news related to the New Tax Laws.

It's even worse since he's the Chief Architect of the laws.
He's the kind of person they called a SUPER-SPREADER during the time of Corona.

He has been attending conferences and symposiums and telling people that Small Companies are companies with Turnover of #100M or less and Total Fixed Assets of #250M or less WHILE the NTA and NTAA defines Small Companies as companies with Turnover of #50M or less and Total Fixed Assets of #250M or less.

This is very BAD.
And NOBODY on his team corrected him.

It could also be that somebody (the Lawmakers) tampered with the Final Drafts and Oyedele failed to review the ones published in the official gazette.

By the way, PwC published Oyedele's #100M definition on their official website.
An egregious mistake on their part.

Someone should inform Oyedele.
Maybe they'll review the New Laws and POSTPONE the date it goes into effect 'cause #50M is too SMALL a threshold.

There is still confusion over this matter. AI reply:

“Since the specific figure in the final tax law text is still subject to minor conflicting reports (₦50M vs. ₦100M for 0% tax), you should rely on the threshold of \le \text{₦100 Million} for general classification as a small company that benefits from numerous tax reliefs and exemptions under the new law, but be aware that the stricter 0% CIT threshold might be \le \text{₦50 Million}. Consult a tax professional for specific compliance advice”.

GeeKudi:
There must always be a way to spin narratives and propaganda.

We love propaganda and conspiracy theories for Naija, chai 🤣😊

awesomeJ:
Who the sovereignty help?

If all they're coming to do is take out the terrorists that the leaders have only been pleading with, then why not?

Cooperate and offer them weapons that they won't use or offer them money that they would loot when thousands are dying.

If the U.S do this alone, are you sure they would care to easily differentiate who the herder terrorists are from amongst the people in Benue and Plateau? Do they even know or care about the dynamics of the conflict in the middlebelt except for the simplistic “Muslims are killing Christians Slogan”? Do you think this would be easy and quick as Trump boasted and would he care if it spirals into something else?

awesomeJ:
For the sake of the victims and their families, please let it be true.

Should we allow the complacency to linger because we've not been affected?

What the government should do is take the free help.

Cos if the department of war sets aside $5bn for a month long operation, that's already more than our entire military budget for an entire year, why should that be rejected?

When it's not like they have a better strategy than endless reshuffling of service chiefs.

They can cooperate with the Government of course and the Government welcomes that but here they are threatening to directly invade a sovereign nation.

awesomeJ:
Are you saying Christians are not being killed??

If terrorists killed 4 Christians and 6 Muslims, and I say terrorists killed Christians, how is it hard for you to see that my statement is factual.


The US is saying Christians are being massacred in Nigeria, the fact that Muslims are also massacred doesn't invalidate that statement, the only thing that does is if no Christians are indeed killed.

The only thing you can pick the US for is why they aren't showing concerns for slain Muslims as they are for slain Christians.

But that's their choice, it doesn't render their concern invalid.

Whether you like it or not, the US will tilt towards Christianity more, plus their thinking is that the perpetrators are islamists so why should they bother.

It's like if Nigerian terrorists go to a place to kill Nigerians and Israelis and then the US complains about the slain Israelis and you try to say their complaints aren't valid cos Nigerians were also slain. In that context, the US cares more about Israelis ordinarily, then again they believe the perpetrators are themselves Nigerians, so maybe they don't care as much.

Hmm, so by this theory, that would mean the U.S cares so much about Nigerian Christians right? I never knew that.

For the first time since the year began, the Nigerian Naira is not one of the 10 worst currencies on the continent.

emmanuelewumi:
So the writer wants us to keep on importing fuel, if he thinks refineries are making crazy margins in Nigeria he should advise other people to come into the business

I thought some people were so sure Tinubu owns Malta refinery and wants to frustrate Dangote?

awesomeJ:
NGN closing at 1436.97


I knew once 1450 got broken, 1400 wouldn't be as hard!

For me 1100/1200 is the goal for Q1 2026 at most, then we can build from there. If we finish the year at 1300 ish though that would be good.

emmanuelewumi:
The extraordinary profit of last year was a one off thing.

Yet federal government of Nigeria got more than 50% of the huge profit based on forex gain

CBN did not talk about foreberance loans when the banks made the huge profit in 2024.


Now in 2025 when banks can't repeat last years performance, they now remember the foreberance loans given to the banks

If this was done last year banks would have used part of their bumper profit to pay down the loan.


If you want loan term wealth and value creation on NGX, please look beyond banking stocks

Banking stocks are only good for predictable dividend income

The profits of 2023/2024 were mostly due to devaluation. In dollar terms, not much difference. If that’s the case then I wonder how that would have helped with the forbearance loans given the fact that most of the loans are to be paid in dollars.

Utalinmou:
That is the road they are leading us to, I don't understand the madness of this government in trying to rip everyone of any available substance.

A govt that is no longer subsidizing the currency and energy, they have passed the burden to us yet they still want to take more from us. Very insensitive leaders
Is this not wickedness?

How do they want to take from us? CGT? Or the new tax law in general?

Since 2008 (after the global meltdown), the Nigerian stock market cap is currently at its best at $67 Billion aside 2013 when it was at $84 Billion.

BascoVanVeli:
Oh wow I didn't think of that. Thanks.
Brother that's why I don't blame Chioma at all. Even with those 2 once in a lifetime players u can't even reach WAFCON? That's like Liberia having 2 George Weah's and not making an AFCON

The painful thing is that a lot of the times they didn’t qualify in the last 7 years, it was the federation pulling out of the qualifiers due to one issue or the other.

unite4real:
The last FGN sukuk saw subscription of over N2.2 Trillion.
There is a lot of money in circulation

There have been a lot of money in circulation since at least 2021.

ositadima1:
One of the best in what terms? If you’re simply looking at the ASI, then I’d ask, can you trade the ASI? If a few highly capitalized stocks move up, does that automatically mean the market performed well?

My definition of a good month is based on how many stocks crossed the 10% threshold within that month. Why? Because out of over 130 listed stocks, it’s very unlikely that we all picked the few top performers. Therefore, the more stocks performing positively, the better the month, irrespective of market capitalization.

A 10% gain in Airtel Africa is the same as a 10% gain in Chams in percentage terms. So, I attached a table showing the number of stocks that gained over 10%, those that lost more than 10%, and the total sum. This month doesn’t even rank among the top four yet.

I get your point but I was looking strictly at the ASI.

SpaceX:
every month keep outperforming itself for me, keep pushing, it's a process. I was once in your stage of growth.......

?

pluto09:
Index moved from 142 to almost 150 and you said investors are growing weary.

I tire oo. October has been one of the best months this year so far. I think only in July has the market performed better in the first 15 days.

Streetinvestor2:
Walahi, I don't mind.I will take it as necessary sacrifice for future gain

Still a huge risk as there is no guarantee of anything and it depends on the capacity of the new politician or military ruler (since some want that). I think we should first solve the problem of getting competent and adequate replacement(s) to choose from before we allow such risks.

For instance, what would be the policy of the new leadership towards market reforms that would give a boost to the stock market?
Would they continue with the present reforms ( fuel subsidy removal, more flexible FX system, tax reforms) or revoke them? Markets would be jittery because of this and would want to know. This uncertainty would keep your portfolio red for a long time in that instance and the longer the uncertainty remains, or any signal of a return to the former system, the more unstable the market would be. This policy and political somersault may show inconsistency to investors and a very bloody portfolio which you (speaking generally here) may not recover from anytime soon.

So first things first, we must answer the question: If we don’t want this Government anymore (which is allowed), what are our options and how would their immediate policies be interpreted by the market?

Taiwo Oyedele explaining CGT to investors at World Bank /IMF meeting. He says they are still open to taking more inputs from investors.

My message to investors at the ongoing World Bank and IMF meetings in the U.S. on changes to the Capital Gains Tax regime under our new tax reform laws. pic.twitter.com/5IVUH70Gky

— Taiwo Oyedele (@taiwoyedele) October 16, 2025

Foreign investors might be on their way back to the stock market due to FX reforms:

“Last year, Nigeria got kicked out of the Frontier Market club because foreign investors couldn’t take their money out.
Translation: “Una economy no get door.” 😭

Now, FTSE Russell just added Nigeria to the watch list for a comeback”

Source: Cowrywise