₦airaland Forum

Redoil:
no be me talk am oooooooooooooooo.

.

only on paper.

“The little amount of money I made while running my business was enough to handle most of my needs, then. Now I earn more here, since the wages have been reviewed, but despite that, that amount can only get me about one-third of the items I was earning then could get me. Until we begin to see the effects of these reforms, positively, it would be foolhardy for us to celebrate,” he stated.

Adesuyi believed Ajayi’s comments captured those of many Nigerians presently living below poverty line. He would want the government to be intentional in ensuring this class of Nigerians is taken out of poverty.

One of the ways, he explained, is to strengthen the naira, since the nation’s present economic woes, he stated, had to do with the declining fortunes of the nation’s currency.

While charging Nigerians on the need to be hopeful, Alaje would, however, want the government to do everything within its power to sustain the ‘little gains’ it had recorded in the area of currency stability.

“One of the ways government can do that is to discourage the use of foreign currency during electioneering period. For instance, it should ensure there is no such exchange of foreign currency either for delegates, or any other politically-exposed persons as the elections in 2027 draw nearer,” he stated.

The renowned economist warned that ignoring such warnings would again put pressure on the dollar, and ‘evaporate’ whatever gains had been made in the area of currency stability.

The best way to continually strengthen the naira is to reduce inflation and one sure way of reducing inflation is to reduce M2 money supply (growth of naira supply into the system either via borrowings, economic expansion (lesser effect), or printing).

Our recent problem with the naira started in 2020 when due to the pandemic, we increased money supply by 31.8% (one of the highest increase in decades). That was when the parallel market began to deviate from the official market again (first time then since 2017). At that time, the CBN didn’t allow the naira float to reflect the drastic increase in M2 money supply. They would have done it eventually anyway.
This was postponed until 2023 when the naira was floated. The problem is that as at the time it was floated (2023), we had serious scarcity of FX already such that by September 2023, our letters of credit for imports were being rejected because the forex backlogs kept growing. We also had problems meeting our budget without the CBN printing new naira into the system (ways and means). The CBN continued to print until the end of 2023 to meet up the budget (7 trillion naira was printed in FY2023 by both Buhari and BAT to meet up the budget and pay salaries). So this was double jeopardy and it meant except we borrow heavily at once (in dollars), the parallel market would continue to go haywire at a faster rate. But we had very little external options for fast borrowing, so the CBN had to float again in early 2024 (from 800 to the parallel market rate of 1400) to at least trap some of the remittances and direct them into the official market and allow FPI’s flow in again (they were going down throughout 2023).

This is how we got to where we are. In 2025, this situation has gotten way better. Our year to date money supply has reduced significantly from over 40% in 2023 and 2024, to 15.78% as of June 2025. This is why the naira is not depreciating fast in 2025 like we saw in 2023 and 2024.

“The Nigeria Tax Act 2025 taxes capital gains on share disposals at personal income tax rates (up to 25%) for individuals, integrating them into PIT. Exemptions apply if aggregate proceeds < ₦150M and gains ≤ ₦10M in 12 months.

Withholding tax typically applies to dividends/interest, not directly to capital gains on stock sales, which are self-assessed upon filing. Confirm with FIRS for your specifics”.

(Grok)

civilserva:
You are right about one thing, macroeconomics isn't for amateurs hawking "Aba originals" in Lagos. But dismissing critics as haters? That's the bigotry shining through, assuming anyone questioning the emperor's borrowing spree must be tribal or ignorant, not, say, a citizen tired of policies that jacked inflation to 34%, shuttered factories, and left families choosing between garri and school fees. The government got reforms to tout (FX backlog cleared, reserves up), but debt trap? That is on his watch too.
Sad sad? Nah, just frustrating when defenders turn into denialists. Let's debate data, not demean. What is your take on that 52.7% debt-to-GDP breaching the fiscal rule?

When we speak of Government debt, I think it has become pertinent to separate the local debt from foreign debt. This Government met a foreign debt of about $43 Billion and they have added approximately $3 Billion since then ( mostly world bank loans at cheap rates). So the foreign debt is about $46 Billion.
The local debt was about 26 trillion naira under Buhari. When you add the ways and means of about 23 trillion naira (plus interest) it took local debt to around 50 trillion naira.

This Government has borrowed about 24 trillion naira in local debts (mostly due to inflation and increased interest rates on the treasury bills and Government bonds).

So this Government has borrowed:

Domestic debt: 24 trillion naira
Foreign debt: $3 Billion

With the rebasing of the GDP now showing GDP of 372 trillion naira and a debt of 149 trillion naira (as at Q1 2025), the debt to GDP is no longer 50% but back to around 40%.

stokfrick:
Something must be fishy somewhere!
It funny how some people are quick to defend the government on tax issues and attack their fellow citizens(soft targets) but, deliberately turn a blind eye and are slow to criticize and pressure the Nigerian government when they fail to meet their obligations to the average citizens.
For more than 10 years the issue of fuel subsidy removal lingered and was seen as what what will bring solution to our economic problems and the lives of our people, fix infrastructure, health, education etc.
They also sang the song of currency deviation(more than 100% devaluation) as another solution to our problems, that the naira will no longer be pegged.

Immediately this man entered he did both of them at once, even stopped subsidizing university education for citizens.
Fast-forward more than 2 years down the line, more Nigerians have been thrown deep into poverty and hardship.
Even our health system is in deeper shit.
Insecurity is worse than ever before.
But the government doesn't care.

All the funds accrued from all the different subsidy removal and the so called devaluation of naira runs into trillions of naira, with nothing to show for it.

not even those defending this tax strategy of impoverishing the citizens the more are asking questions instead they are folishly defending them. It baffles me really.
They are quick to refer to global best practices for taxation. How about achieving global best standards of living for your citizens before taxing them to stupor.
No accountability with public funds, nothing.
If you try to probe, they shut you up or kill you
Any their defendants see nothing wrong with that.
As long as we have senseless leaders and followers this country will never progress.
Individually you can support them all you want because somehow you are benefiting from the mess but be careful because one day it will comeback and hunt you.

Good points made but there is a misconception about the tax bill. The tax bill has not increased existing taxes for anyone earning below 1.5 million naira monthly and even those earning above that have only had slight increases in a progressive manner (the higher you earn, the more you pay). Even for those investing in the stock market, over 80% may likely not pay taxes because they are small scale investors.
I read in some summaries that only those investing above 100 million naira per annum would be taxed (but I have to confirm this).
What the tax bill has done is that it has made tax evasion more difficult and expanded the net without increasing the taxes significantly.
It’s true that Government is wasteful but taxes are vital. The most taxed state Lagos is also the most fiscally viable state that doesn’t depend on FAAC. The countries in the world with the most diverse resources also do not play with their taxes and they tax heavily.

Kushites:
Nigeria has a strategic military alliance with China, and has purchased advanced air defence systems from them, with an even BIGGER deal in the pipeline.

See video.

Not sure why foreigners in America know all this news, yet you people don’t.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMgRMYnnRPc?si=N3c_eokSWkFAdNtZ

Because they only follow those who are focussed on political news and so they don’t search for new developments.

pluto09:
I can't see the naira appreciating significantly in the short to medium term.
What is important for us now is a relative stability and ability to grow the reserves. A plus/minus 5% around 1550 should just be ok.

Nah, appreciation to the 1300/1400 level in the next 3 months would speed up the decline in inflation which is ongoing and in turn allow us reduce MPR rates faster. We need some appreciation at least.

megawealth01:
We are watching. All I know is JAGABAN go help me reduce the rate soon

I think 1200 at this time would be a good balance for the economy. But anything less than 1000 in 2025 may affect the economy negatively by increasing imports (because the purchasing power level is already above 900 at least). FAAC would also be severely affected and exporters of cocoa and cashew may lose interest. So 1200 would be very good for 2025, and then maybe have it stabilised at 950/1000 in 2026.

This is my wishful thinking though and what I estimate would make a good balance for the economy 🤣.

Ghanaians recently had cedis suddenly appreciate from 16 cedis to 10 cedis in Q2 (due to high gold prices from Trump’s unpredictability) and it affected them. Remittances dropped sharply and imports increased. Cedis could not take that pressure and it’s back to 12 cedis/$ despite the record high gold prices we still have now.

Roarke:
Thank you. How do one open account with them

Just sign up here. Make sure you submit all documents in correct format (small in size and clear). They would then have to verify (which would take a few days).

https://app.cardinalstone.com/

Dangote is a blessing to Nigeria. This is the highest petroleum export (non crude oil) , I have ever seen. 7.7 trillion naira in Q2, 2025.

From what I see here, refined petroleum products are now second in our exports after crude oil exports, displacing agricultural products (which are usually very low).

Note: Other petroleum products may also include petroleum gases though (usual NBS terminology for gas). Probably they are broken down in the full NBS report.

Roarke:
Good evening House. Can anyone recommend a good stockbroking from with low brokerage fees like Morgan. Your prompt responses would be greatly appreciated

I use cardinal stone. They respond to my mails very quickly whenever I have enquiries.

The CNG direct distribution na the koko. It not only takes away their dues (and possibly jobs), it takes away their power when they decide to strike or cause artificial scarcity.

megawealth01:
I just wish JAGABAN will ban that thing called union sef

Lol. Jagaban is not a military dictator. The unions would sue him to court and win.

megawealth01:
NUPENG abeg REST

They don’t want the free fuel scheme using CNG. They want the old order even if it’s biting the consumers (they don’t care). Dangote already said those of his workers who want to join are free to join. NUPENG must also not force everyone to join or insist that their stickers be placed on the CNG trucks.

emmanuelewumi:
Where is your source? Do you have a link to this

I have no particular source but it’s common knowledge that NUPENG collects huge fees from drivers and some analysts have estimated it to be over 4 Billion naira monthly if you include the new Dangote CNG trucks.
With the new CNG trucks however, NUPENG would lose access to this stream of income especially if the CNG truck drivers are not unionised and they take over the market including big customers like the telcos (who buy expensive diesel). That is the elephant in the room. With Dangote bearing CNG costs for free delivery, he doesn’t need those extra fees which are usually passed on to the consumers.

chimex38:
I dunno about that them sha.
But they've been investing in NGX before now. So...🤷

I think they have their ways. Through ETF’s or stuff like that.

These NUPENG guys are tiring. They are just after their 4 Billion naira monthly fee. Nothing else.

CSCS and 🇳🇬 stock market announced 🇳🇬 capital market will move to a two-day securities settlement cycle effective from November 28th.

mikeapollo:
Do you know how many people in the villages/hamlets that do not have NIN/BVN or TIN?
You think everybody lives in the cities?
The truth is there will be more activity shifted to the informal sector outside the formal banking system.

If you don’t have even NIN or BVN as means of identification, why would you want to do banking? Through the NIN and BVN we formalise the economy more just like India has been doing within the last decade.

Olaide1295:
Omo na wah for you o. The govt has already said no need for TIN if you have NIN.
Your NIN also serves as your Tax ID in 🇳🇬. This takes effect from January.
Your existing TIN remains valid. If you already have one, you do not need to register again. For those without a TIN, you will need your NIN (individuals)

Your NIN is not a direct TIN but you can easily generate your TIN at once using your NIN.

“Wema Bank has now surpassed the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) capital requirement for commercial banks, following the successful conclusion of its N150 billion rights issue. 🎉

With this milestone, the bank is now well ahead of the March 2026 recapitalization deadline set by CBN.

Wema Bank also disclosed that its total qualifying capital has risen to N214.7 billion, comfortably above the N200 billion regulatory threshold”.

mikeapollo:
Please, lets hope and pray that Nigeria doesn't experience extremely violent riots. There should be no room for complacency
A country experiencing endless ethnic killings, kidnappings, banditry, terrorist acts etc. for almost 20 years is a country in delicate, dangerous times.
Boko Haram has not been defeated for more than 15 years now.

True, we pray there should be no riots. But to your second point, don’t you think this is evidence to Nigeria’s strength and ability to keep itself together despite fighting many internal battles all at once for years? How many countries can handle that and not be down by now? (think Sudan conflict).

Nigeria has dealt with Niger Delta Avengers, IPOB agitation, Fulani herdsmen, Bandits, Middle belt crisis, ISWAP, BokoHaram, Lukarawa from the Sahel in Kebbi, etc stretching the military thin across the nation but still keeping it’s
shit together in Abuja.

Streetinvestor2:
.
How .Let me get ur angle

We had a much smaller market and not so much foreign portfolio investors that could easily pull out from holding naira bonds. Civil wars in Africa at the time were more or less the norm than the exception. The world is now more of a global village than it was in 1967.
In light of the above, a civil war then would have hardly had any effect on the naira than a crisis in a small country like Gambia would depreciate their currency today.

Streetinvestor2:
Was naira stable during the civil war or not.

A very different world than now.

Streetinvestor2:
Why won't it be when the naira has become shit money under this government. No be only attractive na romantic

In 2022, bank cards for dollars were not working and popular apps like transfer wise already stopped dealing with Nigerian naira.

Today, the reverse is the case and it seems firms find it more flexible to trade with naira now just like they would find the South African rand for instance. That’s what I mean by attractive. I’m not saying the 1500 value is attractive or where it should stop at rather I believe the naira should strengthen beyond that in the not so distant future.

The naira seem to be becoming more and more attractive and convertible these days

BankyGee:
Galatasaray 😏

Female football, I don't support anybody, but I love watching Madrid because of Caicedo and Barcelona because of Paralluelo

Galatasaray? Osimehn factor or from time?

megawealth01:
NAWAOH

Fintechs are adding too much premium though. The Cryptos, Abokis, CBN and Banks are aligned and have been aligned since May for the most part.

Abuja at night (Wuse 2)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiJVMigoaGY?si=gD10KX2QtNP4Hg3d

megawealth01:

One can always find several rates here:

https://monierate.com/

Mpeace:
I don't know where you pple get these figures. I just sold a few units following this post of yours. They bought at 1,530/1$.

This is the crypto market and IMTO rate which is different from Aboki and CBN/Bank rates for now.

By Monday, the rates would align. Either the crypto rate depreciates back to the CBN rate of 1520 and aboki rate of 1530 OR the CBN and Aboki rates both appreciate to catch up with the crypto rates.

There was holiday on Friday but Cryptos are traded 24/7. Aboki’s to a large extent gets FX from Banks and then add their premiums, so their rates would always go in the direction of the official/CBN rates.

So by Monday, everything would be clear.

awesomeJ:
Good time to hold naira assets o.
And their $21bn liquidity injection hasn't even come.

I considered reactivating my dollar fund account last month, but I was like what's the point really?

MMF will give me 18%
Dollar fund will give 6% and if naira strengthens to 1350, I would have lost 10%


Every strategy needs a good timing.

I don't think now's a good time to be converting naira.

I expected there would be some pressure on the naira by this time due to people stocking up for Christmas and importing ahead. There is also the factor of low crude oil prices at $66 on average in August and spilling into September so far, yet the naira did not weaken.

If it doesn’t weaken (to some extent) between now and November, then December would be very promising because the naira normally does well in December but struggles between June and October (most especially between June and September).