₦airaland Forum

Inflation should even be less than 20% now. The reasons we still have it this high are due to stuff like rent/real estate prices which are up by more than 40% in places like Lagos compared to 2024 and then restaurants still have their items increasing with a rate of increase above 20% YOY. Basic food in the market and perishable goods (which are 44% of the total basket) from my view have only slightly increased since September 2024.
Some have reduced, others stable. Fuel at this time last year was 865/900 and it’s around thesame price today. Inflation rate should be around 15% - 18% to end this year.

Raider76:
Not sure the European refiners have anything to do with the 66m liters per day. It was just a fraudulent inflation done by the importers, in collaborarion with NNPC officials, politicians, and labor unions to siphon money from the government and the consumers, through a manipulation of the subsidy system. Unfortunately this arrangement has operated for so long that huge investments have been made in the form of large tank farms, port facilities, transportation trucks, filling stations, blending facilities abroad, and so on.

The government should have foreseen the coming to reality of the Dangote Refinery and start to plan for a new system. The government must still come in and buy off the port and tankfarm infrastructure of the importers and convert them into a strategic fuel reserve syatem, along with the existing fuel depots of the NNPC. This will allow the private sector refining industry to develop and fully remove government hands from refining. Funds to purchase fuel importers tankfarms can be raised through the sale of the government's refineries and/or listing the NNPCL on the NGX and raising funds by selling off government shares.

NNPC was doing crude swap close to 400k bpd of crude with European refineries to get just PMS (if I remember correctly).

So I think they were involved. Now they are running under capacity because they no longer have to produce such huge volumes for West Africa anymore and a refinery is something that goes under after some time when it can’t supply to capacity like before. It starts running at a loss because it would then start requiring some level of maintenance constantly.

This is not the only reason European refineries are shutting down though. The main reason is that most are old but this is one of the reason.

Agbalowomeri:
Has Nigeria totally stopped PMS importation?

No just reduced.

awesomeJ:
And Alhaji said they're making adjustments to turn it to a 700k bpd facility by next year.

Those European refiners were consistently supplying a phantom 66 million litres per day PMS to Nigeria in 2022, paid for through debt and about 400k bpd crude oil swap by NNPC to them. From the 66 million litres per day PMS supplied, some were sold to Niger, Benin, Togo, Cameroon and even as far as Ghana and Senegal.

Those guys were making a killing from our stupidity.

The situation in 2022 was so sad because due to this we couldn’t even benefit from the high oil prices in 2022 (due to Russia- Ukraine war) while Angola and other oil countries swelled with oil money.

Dangote at 700k bpd capacity saves us a lot by meeting our true consumption which is around 40 million litres per day and exporting the rest because they would still have about 20 million litres per day left over to export.

awesomeJ:
@GeneralDae,

True FX gains were huge contributors in 2024.

Now beyond 2024, that shift in currency value has also translated to gross assets doubling or tripping for some of the banks in the past 2 years.


So if Access has 13trn to work with in 2023, now that their assets have grown to near 40trn, it's easier to make more money.

My point is the effect of the FX isn't just the one off gains, it's also translated to higher asset base, so if they maintain the same average ROAE or even a lower ROAE, they'll still be making so much cos the A has ballooned.

True and once this whole forbearance issue is put behind us (for the most part) we would have fundamentally stronger banks. I also think this recapitalisation process that has occurred side by side the devaluation, would yield more pros than cons for the Banks.

Streetinvestor2:
So bank results for H1 is bad in some people eyes.I guess u expected the banks to perform miracle with the new OS. Or u expected them to print naira. Are this banks not in the Nigerian economic space. U didn't thank God they didn't declare loss with this bad government when many SME which are thr customers are closing shop.
Is it not Nigerians facing hunger and poverty that this banks make money by rendering services and products. If u are a business man u will know how ur turnover that use to hit this banks have significantly dropped. The banks made money last Yr the government cornered it and insisted they must raise new funds not minding the dilution it could cause for bank.The bank results is a reflection of the Nigerian economy.
The loss in some bank will reverse next week because thr results are very ok.infact I was expecting dividend only from zenith, gtb and stanbic

The banks are really trying to be honest. Most of the profits they made in 2023 and 2024 were to an extent due to devaluation but no devaluation between 2024 and 2025 with same CRR of 50% and other conditions, but they are still making profits.

For Champions Brewery investors.

UBA doesn’t deserve this. Their H1 2025 report is good. I also wonder why Zenith is being punished.

MTN Nigeria to lease 5MHz (900MHz) + 15MHz (1800MHz) spectrum from T2 Mobile (9Mobile) for 3 yrs, effective Oct 1, 2025. This supports national roaming, boosts capacity, and drives digital inclusion. Existing Ntel lease ends Nov 29, 2025.

emmanuelewumi:
Who is the minister of petroleum?

I am sure those agencies report to the minister of petroleum.


Oga at the top does not do right fights, he sends his foot soldiers to do the fight

He will then come in to settle the fight purported started by him low key.

Dangote refinery is of immense help to Tinubu’s Government and he knows it. There is no reason he would want to frustrate it. It would also have been foolish to ban imports outrightly in such a sector as the energy sector.
When it comes to supporting Dangote currently, Tinubu’s Government is doing a lot and this is why importers are crying. Infact I know a special adviser to the Government who revealed that this CNG scheme of Dangote is backed by Tinubu who is collaborating with him via the Government agencies even though Dangote is the one doing the spending.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga make u no dey say some kind things because Tinubu is involved. These decisions u mentioned are major things that affects the country and can not be done or allowed without the knowledge of the president. The 4% tax was not the decisions of custom.It came from ministry of finance .The suspension is equally from the ministry

Oga crude oil matter/ petroleum importation/subsidized dollars for it is not small contract for it to ever happen without the president knowledge unless u are saying the president is incapacitated. I hope u know for sometimes now the president has equally been the minister of petroleum even in the past governments
In the past it is the president table that everything lands.Now with Tinubu the narrative has changed. Thr is always the fall guy but never him.
David umehi generation unborn will tell ur stories as the fall guy..lol

Customs were mainly influenced by NASS who increased their target and they have been insisting on this new fees for a while saying the cost of their operations have increased and many things have to be maintained. I cannot say I am certain Tinubu didn’t see it, but I look out for his reaction more. If Tinubu wanted it, complaints and mummuring alone would not make him reverse it. You may be right that it came to his desk and was approved initially by him. I cannot prove or disprove that.

As for the crude oil and Dangote matter, there was a lot of propaganda involved in it. NNPC didn’t sell crude as agreed because crude production had dropped drastically as at 2023/2024 and they couldn’t fulfill their side of the bargain. Between 2020 and 2022, lots of forward sales were also done. NNPC disappointed Dangote due to these reasons coupled with the fact that the refinery was at the pre commissioning stage and it was a time Dangote needed easy/quick crude for testing but it was also a time where our production was low and we had forex shortages and lots of forward sales. NNPC couldn’t just give Dangote all he needed for pre commissioning at that time (making little profits) and hence they scaled back ownership from 20% to 7.2%.

From the view of Dangote, this was disappointing and rightly so because he then had to spend to import crude at that stage.
When Dangote was complaining, these were the things he was complaining about in the case of NNPC.
Then when he spoke about Malta, opposition twisted it to point at Tinubu with no evidence but the fight was against big oil importers. Also, it would have been foolish for Tinubu to clearly take sides then by banning imports at that early stage.

When NMPDRA spoke saying they couldn’t determine the Dangote fuel quality or it not yet been ready, you cannot automatically say that was Tinubu speaking. Yes, Tinubu would not ban imports but to believe he told NMPDRA boss to give that speech as the excuse would be far too simplistic.

Summary: Was Tinubu against import ban? Yes. Does that mean Dangote was attacking Tinubu for that? No. He was attacking the marketers like DAPPMANN whom he calls the cabal. Tinubu doesn’t need to ban imports for him to take over the market but where the cabals try to restrict him from doing that, is where he fights (note the difference). Is Tinubu or Oando allowing imports because of Malta blending plant? No. Because no evidence links Malta imports to Oando or Tinubu but rather to another businessman who gave Buhari $1.5 Billion in 2020 in one of those forward sales.
So me I’m all for facts and the evidence and as investors, I’m sure this is the opportunity to learn. If I’m wrong on any of these points, I would gladly take it back.

Every quarrel a private investor has with a Government agency like NNPC or NMPDRA ( not a minister in this case) does not necessarily mean the president is automatically giving the agency orders at that point.

For example, customs on their own imposed a 4% FOB charge on imports. We could easily count it as a Tinubu policy because of course he is the president, right? But I never supported the policy or defended it because it goes against the spirit of the new tax laws and what Tinubu himself preaches about taxes. That we try to reduce the tax as much as possible but rather spread the tax net (expand). Now Tinubu through his minister told customs to suspend it.

Same thing with this Dangote matter. Tinubu has eventually removed Mele Kyari and the new NNPC boss is more friendly to Dangote. There is also the naira for crude policy.
CNG imports are also duty free all round which now makes import and investments in large scale CNG trucks tempting.

Streetinvestor2:
So the enemy of ur enemy is ur enemy. I now see why u only post political related things. I was thinking it was for real knowledge purposes. I never see ur post on the stock business

Lol. It’s for knowledge purposes and I do post about the stock market. I even did today.
I hardly post on individual Nigerian stocks because I am only invested in a few (mostly the well known firms) for now at least.

crownprince2017:
So kyari was working for tinubu, was removed by same tinubu n been probed by same tinubu. Haba, stop these ABA lies na...

The same dangote that hudeyin your brother dragged that time, , your people called him monopoly that government favours only him.

People can change narrative once they discovered there talk cannot longer bring you down.

If Tinubu had immediately banned imports and stood behind Dangote, they would still say Tinubu is giving Dangote monopoly. The major reason Hundyin and the opposition started supporting Dangote in 2024 was that they interpreted his outburst on July 2024 against NMPDRA and DAPPMANN to be all about Tinubu 😆. So they thought Dangote was fighting Tinubu and the enemy of my enemy is my friend 🤣

Streetinvestor2:
This are small union guys
When nnpc was fighting him it was not ordinary. If not that Nigerians started speaking out it won't have been easy.You saw how they quickly packaged ph refinery to be producing. When obj said it was not working. They came for his head.I believed everything calmed down because some agreement was reached with oga at the top behind closed doors to only few ears.Since then alhaji has been hyping the government doings .This is naija we sabi watin dey.kyari was not working for himself

So why do you think the presidency would be against the smooth functioning of the refinery?

People just ran away with the rumour that Dangote was fighting Tinubu. It’s so funny how folks could easily believe some of these rumours.

awesomeJ:
You now made it seem like we were arguing??
We're basically saying the same thing.

And I'm not a politician at all.

I haven't had voter's card since 2011. And i'v never voted.

Arguing? Notice I said true at the beginning. I wasn’t debating your points but I was giving more details especially to Tinubu supporters who keep saying he was bold on subsidy removal. I am saying I doubt he would have allowed full deregulation by now without the Dangote effect which started in October 2024.

awesomeJ:
How about government left the currency to float and there was no refinery, we're still looking for $2bn monthly to import fuel, would the currency not have collapsed?

No one is saying government policies haven't been super helpful, what I'm saying is that when Alhaji decided to stake $20bn on the economy about a decade ago, it was a seed he planted, and the impact of that on the economy shouldn't be understated.


Currency peg was removed in 2023, yet the impact was that diesel went from 1050 to 1700.

Maybe it's so easy to forget

It wasn't another currency peg removal that brought diesel down from 1700, it was a local refinery that started producing, what we're saying is that he too (like the government) deserves credit that's not small.

True, without Dangote refinery coming on stream, I doubt Tinubu would have successfully removed fuel subsidy by now. He removed it on May 29th, 2023 and then floated the naira in June. The resulting inflation and increased money supply shut the naira to 1000 by October 2023 and he had to bring back subsidy again by using only the official rate of 800 for PMS imports.

This got worse in February 2024 when we harmonized both official and parallel rates again at 1300/1400. We did that but we were still subsidising PMS imports by using the 800 rate until October 2024 when subsidy was fully removed because of Dangote’s entrance.

Between December 2023 and September 2024, NNPC was owing international oil marketers $6.8 Billion and serious fuel queues returned as a result of this. We were on our way to serious collapse.

Olaide1295:
Don't mind them. Dangote refinery coming to life is because Tinubu set enabling policies.
If dollar peg was still there and Dangote needed to lobby CBN and wait for weeks before he gets USD to buy crude oil, won't the refinery have collapsed?
Good govt. policies have a way of smoothening out business that you will think success has nothing to do with the government.

Nah. I would say in this case, Emiefele supported the refinery by ensuring Dangote had smooth access to FX at official rate. If Dangote was still building at a critical stage in 2023 and 2024, he would have struggled due to the instability and constant devaluation of the naira then but the official rate crawling peg during Buhari’s time (especially from 2016 to 2023) was more stable for him. Also, Emiefele/Buhari took the project as a critical one. But this easy access to cheaper FX would not have continued for long though if FX scarcity at CBN continued and net reserves dried up.

Streetinvestor2:
Gas way is still buy 1200 per kg 2 days ago.

Importers still dominate the market for now alongside NLNG. But wholesale prices in Nigeria range from 740 to 1000 at the moment with Dangote selling the cheapest at 740 as at August 2025. No retailer should be selling above 1300 currently anywhere in Nigeria and none above 1100 anywhere in Lagos but for greed and other factors.

“Dangote’s cooking gas price cheapest in Nigeria Checks by Legit.ng on petroleumpriceng’s price data show that the refinery slashed the LPG price to N740 per kg, the lowest among depot operators and cheapest in Nigeria. The latest price is also the cheapest the refinery has sold cooking gas in 2025 after rates jumped above N1,000 per kilogramme. Experts have hailed the move as exemplary, urging other operators to follow suit. They also attributed the latest price cut to the declining crude oil prices in the international market. Read more”:

https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1669173-after-pms-dangote-refinery-slashes-cooking-gas-price-n800kg-lowest-nigeria/

awesomeJ:
The government is drastically understating the impact of DIL on the economy.

Remove DIL's investment and let's see how well the reforms alone would go.

Diesel was constantly selling for 1700, man came in and crashed it immediately to 1200, inducing a significant relief to everything from the cost of milling flour to the cost of transporting tomatoes.


About this time last year we were hearing landing cost of PMS was 1120, add retailers margin, and we'll be talking 1200 in Lagos, man stepped in and we're doing 860.

Tinubu wants me to believe it's just reforms that are taming inflation?


Then you hear him talking of the largest export of Urea, export of cement.

Imagine how proud I was to read about him shipping hundreds of thousands of tons of PMS to the U.S, and Tinubu wants people to believe it's just reforms that are driving trade surplus??


That man is the only man that can make me get a PVC, I'll wake up at 5am on election day(I typically wake up past 8am), and stay with the vote for as long as needed if he ever chooses to contest.

I won't even care if he embezzles half the national budget, cos I know, unlike some dumb folks that will stash it foolishly in foreign economies, the man will deploy it fully back to help the economy way more than their borehole and street light budgets are currently doing.

He must make heaven!

Thank God BUA also seems to be following his footsteps!

Even cooking gas. His cooking gas price has always been lower but his production capacity of cooking gas is still not sufficient enough for the market so he doesn’t control the market share at the moment. He has however crashed his cooking gas price to 740. He plans to triple his capacity soon and then he can influence cooking gas prices too like he does PMS.
I believe the reason cement prices are still high at 10k (should be at least 9k) is that there are lots of informal taxes there and Government tax is high and he has complained about this several times. He said 52 kobo out of every 1 naira profit they make goes to various taxes.
We’ll see how the new tax law addresses this issue of multiple taxation.

Dangote cement:

“My new six million tons of cement plant at Itori, Ogun State, is not for the Nigeria market. It's 100% for export - Dangote”

bastardson:
Bro this na illusion.

Nobody born of a woman can win that dude.

Let’s just forget about that. It’s better to focus on 2031.

PBAT no be GEJ.

I no dey even reason 2027 for now.. Totally and absolutely sealed.

Be like sey market dey stagnant. My portfolio is not going up or down.

Yope the market is a bit slow now until probably end of September/ early October. Then the market would come alive again.

awesomeJ:
Naira sustaining it's rally, closing today at 1484.14

With reserves expected to hit $41.8bn after tonight's figures, next resistance is 1450!

Reserves are already $41.84 Billion as at September 15th, 2025.

RodgersAkpafu:
Lets see how sustainable this will be though

Or said in another way
Lets hope this is sustainable

US dollar is taking a beating too. So the naira may just keep strengthening relative to USD especially even without CBN intervening much.

awesomeJ:
USD officially broke its 1500 support today though.

1500 resistance for NGN!

Closing at 1497.47 according to Investment One.

Official rate at the moment from Bloomberg website. Hopefully we get to 1400 between now and end of October.

Dangote Refinery has successfully sold its first gasoline shipment to the U.S., showcasing its capacity to meet high-quality standards.
The shipment was delivered via the tanker Gemini Pearl to Sunoco’s terminal in New York Harbor.
This development positions Nigeria as a significant player in the refined petroleum market globally.
Two additional shipments from the refinery are scheduled to arrive in the U.S. later this month.

Deltamani:
Cook without a Technical and Tactically sound coach ahbi?? Dey play!

But even the foreign/oyinbo coaches don’t really do much better. Unlike the super eagles, where we’ve had a Westerhof, we’ve not really had an outstanding foreign coach so far with the super falcons (except if your post is not insisting we must search for a foreign coach).

awesomeJ:
BUAFOODS kick-starting ASI's journey to 150k today.

August's CPI printing lower.

CBN Should add velocity to these masses by doing a 150bps cut next week, so the momentum can be sustained.

I doubt they would cut by more than 50 bps. You would want FPI to still be interested in holding as much naira as possible especially if the U.S FED doesn’t cut rates on Wednesday.

ArcSEMPECJ:
Please don't insult Americans, they don't place kick backs and blowing of contract terms before their citizens, they value their citizens more than they value the roads they construct....

After constructing the coastal road, how many kidnappers do you think it will recruit in Nigeria Take case study from the existing roads now in the hands of bandits ....

So you believe bandits would hide inside water and then come out to stop fast moving cars on a coastal highway?

Racheal45:
Road make bandit Go still dey kidnapp citizen
Abeg this money should be invested in security instead of road

Bandits on a coastal highway? Where dem one hide? Water?

Kaa4:
I still find it hard to understand the wisdom behind this infrastructure expenditure. Good as it may be, we have better things to do than the amount spent or to be spent on this.

BAT's idea against the whole of the country.

Opportunity right and left.

The Lekki Epe expressway is now getting very busy due to trucks at the Dangote refinery. This road offers a good alternative route. This road has many benefits to be honest and there is never a right time to start anything. Just start and keep going.