₦airaland Forum

ACA finally exits Aradel

https://guardian.ng/business-services/aca-exits-aradel-holdings-in-n387-4-billion-deal/

Dangote refinery still at 550k bpd for now from a high of 610k bpd in August.

Nigeria’s 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery could play a crucial role in cushioning West Africa from potential supply shocks if Russia goes ahead with a proposed ban on diesel exports, Argus Media has reported.

Drone strikes push Russian diesel exports to 5-Year Low. 16 of 38 plants were hit since August, cutting >1M barrels/day in capacity.
Moscow is now considering a FULL ban on diesel exports after already halting gasoline sales. Domestic output still exceeds demand by 50%, but the export collapse drains revenues, strains the budget, and sparks talk of oil production cuts.

mikeapollo:
What is progressive in asking individuals to pay almost 25 percent CGT but companies would pay 10 percent?
Who carries higher relative risk burden in the capital market between a company and an individual and who should be rewarded or incentivized more?

CGT rate for companies was raised from 10% to 30% the last I checked while for individuals it’s progressive and ranges from 7% to 25%.

sboga:
i don sleep on dis cgt matter kai dis is serious
so fg wan chop 25% of my profit on top all the fees i don pay
is there no way out of dis lamba?
25%
omo

Let’s all just wait and follow the Taiwo Oyedele meeting. We would summarize the nuances after that.

I entered a twitter space two days ago where tax (as related to the stock market and fixed income market) was being discussed, they invited a tax expert but I entered late and they were almost done. But it seemed the tax guy (guest speaker) did a good job answering most of the questions.

So I believe there would be clarity when more of these guys come out to explain the nuances involved.

I strongly believe they have modelled their system based on the European model but in a little bit more progressive way.

kintus:
I previously mentioned the confusion surrounding CGT and how it is negatively affecting the market, though I was rebutted. I sincerely hope that the FG, CBN, NGX, and all other relevant bodies will come out to clearly explain how these policies will impact the market going forward. Sweeping issues under the carpet is no longer acceptable, as people are now more informed. This is my candid opinion.

I would dig further but I think I have heard Taiwo Oyedele say there are exemptions. The problem with information on this new tax laws generally is that people prefer to listen to influencers and non tax experts and then ignore Taiwo and the FIRS guys who are all over the place answering questions and explaining.

“There is an exemption threshold raised: for sale of shares in Nigerian companies, the gross proceeds threshold is now ₦150 million in any 12 consecutive months. 
Also, gains do not exceed ₦10 million in that period may qualify under the exemption”.
“For individuals, CGT continues but will be taxed at the individual’s applicable income tax rate (“progressive tax band”) rather than a flat 10%”.

awesomeJ:
September should still manage a marginal green close sha.

DANGCEM might also get UPdated soon!

I believe even MTN might rebound before the end of the month.

MTN just scatter everywhere today.

Locotrader:
Never you compare investment one with Morgan Capital again.

LED TV and LCD TV energy consumption are not same.one is low in power consumption while the other is high.Go for LED ooooo.

Be rest assured you will make huge savings with Morgan Capital and Atlas portfolios than when using investment one.
Investment one is LCD with very high brokerage fees and will also restrict you from making huge profit by frustrating your orders not to be executed and disallowing you to trade volumes.
I am telling you the truth from practical experience.Run oooo

Save yourself stress and use Morgan Capital if it is mandatory to choose from the two you mentioned.

What’s your opinion on cardinal stone (if you’ve had experience with it)?

awesomeJ:
Exactly.
My outlook are that they'll get reserves to $45bn soon and move exchange rate below 1400.

At 1400, if Brent stays at current levels, Dangote would cut gantry price to #770

I believe so too. The only threat to that is that from October to December they have maturities and other payments to make but it would be interesting to see how they manage this. I won’t be surprised if the reserves come down for a while in this period due to this but hopefully they are still able to maintain the upward trend of both the reserves and the FX irrespective.

awesomeJ:
Yes. His comments did send the wrong signals too. The impact might have just been 20% or less but I would say it still had an impact.


I just never liked why he made it seem like defending the currency was a bad thing.

It's basically in their mandate to guarantee the value of the legal tender or so.

Yes but you must also remember that at the time (and even till now) when people hear defending, they struggle to differentiate it from what Emiefele was doing.

So he was probably trying to give a signal that he hasn’t abandoned free market principles.

Remember how Bloomberg and Nairametrics made the topic of defending a hot one then especially with dwindling reserves at the time that dwindled by $2 Billion in one month. Maybe he didn’t communicate very clearly and that might have contributed.

awesomeJ:
However, I do agree that allowing it get to 1500 was perhaps not the best they could have done.


There was a time in April 2024 when it gained significantly to the 1000 - 1100


The Cardoso went on an interview to say CBN had no interest whatsoever in defending the currency, and that sent a terrible signal to the market, triggering another crash.

Why would you ask a CBN ever say you have no interest defending your currency, then what's your purpose? What's your benefit to the citizens, is it to be wearing suit and speaking English while your citizens lose purchasing power on a daily basis.

If you can't guarantee (defend) the value of a currency, why issue it?

You might be correct but I don’t think that was the major reason for the crash (might have been part of it). The FPI’s just cashed out at the time as they usually do in such situations. It appreciated way too suddenly from 1625 to 1078 in 1 month yet reserves were declining and no one was sure of net reserves. Foreign investors who bought naira at 1625, only had to buy back their dollars with 1078 (almost 600 naira gain). This in itself was not a problem but for the fact that Cardoso didn’t have the net reserves at the time to steady the ship.

ositadima1:
If that’s the case, we should see the exchange rate drop significantly—after all, it’s a free float, just like how stocks fall when someone is dumping.

I agree but our foreign debt servicing has increased so much. This year alone, we are to spend over $5 Billion on debt servicing. So many things changed since 2022 when the developed world began to hike their rates.
Hopefully, with the growing reserves and drop in inflation, the naira appreciates significantly.

ositadima1:
While you look at the data presented by the government, let me approach it logically. There’s no way we could have the minimal reduction you claim and still see the price holding at ₦1,500 for this long. The whole idea behind floating is to raise prices to limit demand. If the same quantity is being maintained as before, the price will keep climbing until demand falls to a level the CBN can manage. It’s the same principle with everything else—if the demand for bread is too high, bakers will raise prices to discourage some buyers until demand becomes manageable. The only exception would be if significantly more dollars were coming in, enough to cushion the old level of demand.

True, you answered it in your last paragraph. More dollars have come in through FPI’s in 2025 that imitates the 2014/2015 levels. Only 2019 comes close in the last 10 years.

ositadima1:
I don’t think your comparison is correct. Unlike now, when we have fuel in abundance, dollars are still scarce. What’s really happening is that the high price has reduced demand—there’s less appetite for it because of the cost. The other argument, that floating allows the price to find its true level, also has its problems. As stock traders, we know that the price of a stock is rarely its true value; it’s either overshooting or undershooting and mostly depends on how it’s presented. So, floating may not necessarily lead to true value discovery.

I also don’t buy the argument that floating allows a currency determine its true value. So called true value is what marketers and investors are willing to price it at at that time and must not necessarily be determined because you floated or did not float. Governments float however, in order not to drain their reserves because like in the filling station example, people no longer see the need to queue at filling stations when the price at black market is thesame and you are likely to get it faster.

My analogy may not be 100% similar but I used it to highlight the similar market forces at play.

You are right that demand for dollars reduced because it’s high but when I view our trade data, it hasn’t been that significant. For instance, compare imports of manufactured goods and raw materials in Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 or even Q4 2022 (Q4’s generally see increased imports) to Q2 2025. I don’t see that significant drop in imports but I would do the calculation for you.

In Q4 2022, imports of manufactured goods valued at 2.447 trillion naira (2447.76 bn in screenshot below) was $5.44 Billion (using 450/$) as at Q4 2022

In Q2 2025, import of manufactured goods valued at 7.88 trillion naira (7883 bn in screenshot below) was $4.92 Billion (using 1600/$ for Q2 2025).

Q4 2022 - $5.44 Billion
Q2 2025 - $4.92 Billion

Not so much difference despite the fact that Q4 normally see increased imports of manufactured goods than other quarters due to festivities.

Streetinvestor2:
So the cbn is the one determining the exchange value indirectly as they like.So how do we now say this is truly what naira should exchange or are u agree 1500 is what it worth to a dollar

In a normal society, banks determine the exchange rate because most of the trading are done there. The BDC’s are mostly at the airports and they also buy from banks to serve tourists and travelers mainly. That’s all.
In these normal situations, banks and central banks activities in the market determines the rate not BDC’s or aboki’s.
BDC’s or aboki can only add their small premiums to the rates but the more they are supplied by banks, the more some BDC’s begin to reduce their rates too. Market foxes.

Streetinvestor2:
So who is funding the aboki now.Has banks and cbn stopped selling to exchange guys weekly or monthly now.

There is supply now for CBN and banks which means majority of people who normally get from official sources do not have to depend on aboki.
Just like we don’t have fuel scarcity at the moment, the black market guys are now more passive currently because no queues at filling stations (official channels).

guyzgirl:
I see the cut, which is small but reasonable, as they have to manage the easing. But what I find more hampering is the new 75% CRR on government deposits, that is really going to squeeze banks and impact their willingness to cut rates as well.

75% on non TSA public funds e.g MDA’s who are not part of the TSA system. The banks would rather hesitate to collect those Government funds from the MDA’s from now on which would likely drive the MDA’s towards TSA adoption.
Aside that, CRR was actually reduced to 45% not increased.

Streetinvestor2:
How did u arrive at the real value of naira to dollars if the street price than was the real value to me because that one was not being subsidized. That is the 700 plus.The present 1500 is as a result of failed governance and never the real price to me.even as subsidy is removed. The aboki selling 700 plus was not getting it from government then so it was not subsidized

The aboki selling at 700 was getting it from Government indirectly because the market is interconnected. Emiefele releases dollars to banks and sets his own rate by not allowing it get above a certain band say 450/460.

The banks cooperate with the abokis by offloading the dollars to them via round tripping to get their own cuts. The Aboki market becomes the main market indirectly funded by the official market and other sources. When you remove the peg from the official market and the indirect funding is cut off, there is a tendency for the black market to shoot up further showing there’s scarcity.

Take the usual fuel scarcity for instance. Many of the black market sellers still get fuel mainly from the filling stations in times of scarcity to sell higher. If filling stations increase their prices to match that of the black market, that of the black market would go up again until real supply comes into the market (filling stations).

The black market would keep going up in times of scarcity, because at that point, the filling stations (official market) alone cannot satisfy everyone.

The black market was only meant for villages initially and they source from anywhere but majorly filling stations. But now there is scarcity at filling stations and black market is expected to satisfy more people than they did previously so their prices would be inflated.

Filling stations then increase their prices so the market doesn’t drain them off the little they have. Then those who still queued at filling stations to get fuel because it’s cheaper, finally give up and all go to the black market.
This puts more pressure on the black market and their prices gets hiked again away from that new price of filling stations and it goes on and on and on until supply comes.

chimex38:
Update.
Your $45bn minimum year end target still on point.

Hopefully 😊. Although they have lots of maturities in Q4 2025 especially a Eurobond maturity payment.

Gross external reserves $43 Billion already in CBN’s book.

14 banks have fully met the new capital requirements.

50 bps cut. Cardoso, na man you be.

@awesomeJ you were spot on.

awesomeJ:
But Emefiele's LDR policy hasn't been squashed now has it?

650 bps cut with CRR at 35% helps both the economy and the banks.

I think what CBN is also considering is FAAC. This FAAC has always been an issue to the CBN even from the time of Soludo but they tame it via money instruments.

We are now sharing FAAC of over 2 trillion naira every month and a lot of these settle in banks because lots of state Governors use private banks unlike the FG who uses CBN.

The 50% CRR is to absorb this monthly until our growth rate becomes good enough to absorb the flow and inflation gets below 10%. We are coming from an era where we printed 23 trillion naira and now we have increased naira FAAC almost fourfold.

The CBN needs to keep removing as much naira from the system and destroying them (ie not redeploying them to the system by giving them to FG to spend again).

Taiwo Oyedele has advised we share FAAC daily to solve this problem because it’s always been an headache to CBN but even more with increased FAAC.

I believe the 50% would be reduced to 25% soon but I get your point that if we are applying 50% CRR then we don’t need necessarily high interest rates to control money supply and inflation.

awesomeJ:
Let them sha cut tomorrow.

If not, I'll visit FedralHighCourt.

If they don’t cut tomorrow then they would cut at the next meeting. I suspect a 25 bps cut but I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold.

ojesymsym:
Morgan has one feature that they do not have, Morgan gives you an immediate estimate of the total cost when you input quantity and price, Stanbic does not however Stanbic allows you to select the duration of days you want your limit price to last, to the best of my knowledge, Morgan will cancel all pending order at the end of the trading day, which means you have to refill an order the next day if it was not fulfilled that day.

In all, they all have their uses. Stanbic is where I do my compounding, because the investment there are mostly from dividends or gains so I tend to indulge more with the dividends that come that secondary income unlike the primary dividend that the first right is for it to be invested.

Morgan is similar to cardinal stone then. For me, I use cardinal stone primarily (especially for equities) then cowry for other investments because the fees on the cowry app for the stock market are way too expensive.

ajalawole:
hope bank monitor btc too

FG is working on taxes from crypto. Even at that, you can’t spend btc in Nigeria, you would still need naira.

Truths9ja:
The extravagant lifestyles of Yahoo guys and girls living in our society is highly bad. Unfortunately they keep on increasing in this criminal acts every day.

This is why this new tax law is supported by me. From January, banks have the liberty to report large transactions to FIRS and people would be given the opportunity to file a tax return and explain. No hiding place for yahoo boys not even crypto can help them because FG is also working on heavy crypto regulation.

ositadima1:
"the principle of compounding is at the core of all inflation analysis. . Economists and policymakers understand that the cumulative effect of rising prices over time is what truly erodes purchasing power."

I assume you’re a stakeholder in the government, probably heading some arm of it. Try to be broad-minded—there’s no cause for celebration here, for the reasons I outlined in my previous post.

Again, I fail to see how your quote counters the fact that inflation rate YOY is dropping and that’s what is measured.

No one is celebrating, just stating facts because it could have been worse. Take a look at what’s happening with Milei’s reforms in Argentina today.

I wish I am a stakeholder in the Government though heading an agency.

No one is celebrating at the moment, we just measuring progress and stating facts as they are now

ositadima1:
You’re trying to sound smart, but your arguments don’t hold up under closer scrutiny. Yes, inflation measures the rate of change in the cost of goods and services, not how far prices have already risen. The problem is that ordinary people feel the compounded effect. Telling them that the rate of increase has slowed down means nothing to someone now paying twice—or even three times—for the same plate of food they bought less than two years ago.

What truly matters to the average person is the compounded inflation over the past two years. Tinubu’s policies drove inflation up astronomically (I’m convinced it was much higher than the 27% reported last year), and now the government is claiming success simply because the pace of increase has slowed. That’s like a doctor taking credit for a patient’s recovery from symptoms caused by the very medication they prescribed in the first place.

Once again, the compounded inflation since Tinubu’s administration began is massive—if not the highest in Nigeria’s history.

I fail to see how your argument counters mine. The NBS and statistical bodies all over the world do not measure compounded rate of inflation from 2 years ago. They simply measure inflation rate year on year and month on month.

jonnysessy:
I love your sarcasm 😄😁😆😅🤣🤣🤣.
Even your moniker makes me laugh till tears started coming out of my eye . Where have you been all this while because this my first time of seeing this Moniker ( not that am old on this thread o)
I wonder how government comes out with inflation figures ( i am science inclined not an economist). You need to visit the market to know that there is no significant change in all these data rolled out.

Can you give me 5 items in the market you bought as at last month or December last year that has had high price increases (more than 30%) from what they were? If you can, then I’ll admit.

tpain121:
No o. It should be 1% .
15-18 percent is still too high.

Have you been to the market today? Items have reduced drastically.

I know this is sarcasm but inflation rate reduction doesn’t mean prices are not rising but they are rising at a slower rate compared to last year. Give me 5 items (any item) that have risen very fast compared to last month if you can. This time last year, I am sure you could easily mention more than 10 of such items.