₦airaland Forum

Kazikazi:
How can you avoid a slowing down of consumption while the population is shrinking? Think about real estate!

Population ususally shrinks with enormous per capita income growths and people compensating consumption it by buying luxuries.
Moreover, China is an export led economy and also depends upon consumption of other countries.

obaaderemi:
So what is South Africa's problem that has slowed its growth down to less than -1%?Care to analyse it like you analysed Nigeria's case? I tell you it's not a rule of the thumb that poor economies grow faster than rich economies. Another example is Chile whose economy grew by 1.7% in 2017.

Le'me simplify it for you. We all Asians and Africans have suffered economic depressions in first half of past centuries and great divergence has put us miles behind west.
Your ultimate aim is to catch up with them economically again.
Opportunity comes here because their population is either at replacement rates or declining and hence, we are able to get hands on some of their industries and technologies.
The country who won't make efforts to tap this market can't be deemed successful.

obaaderemi:
You are wrong. Nigeria's GDP growth wasn't eaten by its population growth. We grew at an average of 6% between 2009 and 2015.Among these years,we were adjudged by world bank as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. I maintain, if we are growing at 2% now- a couple of years after exiting a major recession-- I don't think that's too bad. . You might want to consider countries such as Venezuela which is growing at -14%. It shows Nigeria's economy is faarrr more diverse than we thought.

I'm wondering just because Venezuela in bigger crisis, one will stop improving his own country.
I'm afraid that you are taking me otherwise as if I was making it Nigeria vs Kenya or India which I'm definitely not doing.
Indeed, Nigeria's 6% growth rate was impressive then but what now? Why it declined to 2%? If everything is dominated by oil then you have switch to a diversified economy. Given that major consumer countries in West and East have been moving towards other sources, oil can't be relied for long term.

And current 2% growth rate is lower than Nigeria's population growth rate. If a country with 0.5% population growth rate in Europe grows at this rate, its fine but at Nigeria's stage less than 5% can't be called Good, less than 4% can be disastrous. Because Nigeria's income is declining, not increasing right now.

I don't have anything to do with your politicians sharing photos of airports and infrastructure.
In India, they were made themselves by private firms and they are more common here because they are built if needed only.

You guys direly need to finish that bloody Boko Haram and diversify industry. The easiest and most profitable industries are Clothe and steel industries. They'll easily solve Nigeria's unemployment issue in few years plus will make it largest exporter to other African countries.

obaaderemi:
If this is anything to go by, then I wonder why Nigeria continues to attract more FDI than other African countries.

Nigeria is Africa's giant! It's most populated there, has second largest African economy and one of largest producers of oil. Big countries obviously have higher FDI than smaller ones.
Nigeria was in fact far richer than India and South East Asian countries for past 100 recorded years for natural reasons, overtaken by them very recently because Asia was getting industrialized.

Nigeria's enormous untapped potential could make it emerge another great power emerge on globe and first from Africa. A pivotal role similar to USA in North America, Brazil in South America, India in Southern Asia and China-Japan in Eastern Asia.

In end of this century when India and China both will start to decline, world can only look at Nigeria as new global growth driver. So, they need to prepare from now.

darfay:
Why do indians promote English at the expense of Hindi

English has become a symbol of high education in India.
First, Hindi is not accepted as national language in most parts of India. Hindi is a horrible mix of Sanskrit, Arabic & English with north Indian native languages.
South & East Indian counterparts have still their real languages alive. English is the string Indians themselves use to connect with fellow Indians.
Second, leaving all this emotional drama, English is the language of interaction with foreigners, English is the language of people we are selling our products at high profit, English has become the language of science and business. Why not learn English?

rvp20183:
Yes Kenya pop growth rate last I checked was 2.7% - I think the aim should be have pop growth around 1-2% - and then try to stick there. Anything less than 1% or a decline then become problematic. So if India is already on 2% - then it's indeed hit a sweat-pot demographically. Kenya need to further drop.

I think in summary India & Kenya will start to enjoy demographic dividend soon. I think in 10yrs - the current largest pop cohort in kenya (5-10) will exist childhood - and we should start seeing an inverted pop structure - rather than pyramid - and the result economic benefit at micro(family) and macro-level will be apparent.

I'm talking about fertility rate buddy. India's population growth rate is 1.09% and fertility rate is 2.3 children per women. If you actually have 2% population growth rate, then look over, its high.
Population Growth Rate of India: 1.098% p.a.

Fertility Rate of India: 2.34 children per women

Now, give me stats for Kenya and Nigeria.

I'm repeating, population growth rate higher than 1.5% per year and fertility rate more than 3 children per women is an issue which can your hold per capita income back even after enormous growth.

And don't confuse population growth rate with fertility rate. Fertility rate defines your future population growth rate.

TayserMahri:
Perfect! Both countries actually need to go slow on the planned parenthood thing as they edge towards proper middle income countries. We can actually beat the middle income trap by letting lose on the planned parenthood completely. The millenials in both countries dont have that "fill the world" mentality. Most of them will end up with one or two kids anyway (except Somalis lol ) without the planned parenthood indoctrination. No hating on Somalis but dang!!

Look when per capita income growth rate has not gone below 5% for last 27 years continuously, population growth rate isn't an issue in India.

Middle income traps happen because of slowdown of consumption and lack of sophisticated technologies, not growing population.

rvp20183:
On a side note, how does it feel to be in a country with 1.2 billion humans !!? Just the feel of it. I usually find it astounding, even surreal, almost like talking of light years. If Indians and Chinese decide to jump at once i bet this planet would wobble by a few inches and we might address or even exacerbate global warming.

Does not make much difference with an area of 3.3 million square kilometers, our country is populous but not that congested as its large in area also.

We just read the we are second most populous from our books and astound ourselves.

Our most cities are highly congested though except some well planned like Bangalore, New Mumbai, Surat and Chandigarh. We have very few cities which can compete with western countries, China has a lot.

Delhi is one of worst cities in India you'd like to reside, Chandigarh & Surat are best.

rvp20183:
I disagree.It nearly impossible for a country to become middle class with 3 kids on average - that way too much dependacy ratio.Unless the country was to hit a natural resource jackpot. The only way to avoid the middle trap is to invest in high quality of education and compete in high tech stuff. China will likely avoid middle income trap because they are transitioning to high tech stuff.

India's average fertility rate lies between 1.8 to 2.3 and for Kenya might be 2.5 to 3.
High tech stuff is indeed needed to avoid middle income trap but declining manpower is a bigger burden to economy.

All I'm saying that we both are perfect. Our fertility rate and population growth rates are favourable to our development stage and we should not try to push it further down artificially. It should decline with same speed as that of increment in our income levels otherwise growth will stop.

https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/b77y9kGTmGV0lK5RmStNLP/Will-India-turn-old-before-it-becomes-rich.html

rvp20183:
It appears only Afgan is red outside Africa . Africa need to really stop breeding. Whatever economic growth (3-4%) we have in sub-sahara africa is in vain if the whole map is Red.

Other Asian country that should red is Yemen. This list is bugged.

rvp20183:
India like Kenya - need to go down to blue - 1-2 kids from 2-3 kids.

No, we both are perfect. Both overpopulation (becomes burden) and population decline hurts.

There are three kind of people: Kids, Adults and Aged.
Only adults earn. Overpopulation causes increment in number of dependent kids. So, Africa is suffering.

Population decline causes more aged people and lack of manpower with increased spending on pensions. So, growth slows and economy even starts to decline.
Example: China & Japan.
Western manpower losses are being compensated by immigrants.

Countries in green are best. Red have population has burden and Blue are suffering manpower decline.

rvp20183:
See strong correlation btw fertility and HDI.

It is natural actually. We should not interfere with it.

For example, a European country Moldava is poorer than African countries but its socially developed like rest of Europe and its population is declining.

India and Kenya on other hand will grow very fast for next 30 years to become upper middle income countries and even developed countries by end of century.
China successfully implemented a robust population control plan which has started to pull their growth back now and push them in middle income trap.
India and Kenya tried but we both were not completely successful and we are going to have this advantage in future.

rvp20183:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/Fertility_rate_world_map_2.png

Map is a bit wrong, Pakistan is must yellow and Bangladesh must be blue.

darfay:
What country are you based in?

Which African countries are the most popular in india?

I'm from India although I keep traveling abroad as per my work issues.
Three coubtries, South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria are most commonly known about by even a street Indian if you ask.
South Africa (Cricket)
Kenya (Bilateral political ties)
Nigerians (Expatriates and students, for oil)

kikuyu1:
Goel,welcome to nl and this thread,potentially the most interesting but doomed by the low collective brainpower of its loudest. I'm also an observer in Kenya and still find it potentially interesting:hopefully you can help. Tell me about Bangladesh-this country has grown phenomenally,GDP,power production,poverty reduction and growing export range including aquaculture and even ships!!
You're closer with eyes on info unlike our own google info-what can you tell us?

Well thanks, I've been once there for a power station (Combined Cycle) project.
All I watched on streets, people its not much different than eastern part of India if not better. Though, my father told me that they we're far behind once but now caught up with us.
Poverty is a relative term. India has more private companies for services which some countries' goverments may do. Similarly, some private companies in other countries do what Government in India does.

The salary they generally earn is lower than Indians a bit but the services provided in their goverment schools, hospitals and offices are much better than India's, corruption is really very low there.
While Soviet Union, China and India failed to implement their socialist dreams of equalist utopian countries which they conceived 70 years ago, Bangladesh, Nepal and Vietenam have used socialism successfully to lift millions outta poverty with industrialisation in less than 50 years. Though, their industries aren't diversified.

NairobiWalker:
He is a racist idiot who can't even string a sentence yet feels like he's better than everyone else on this thread.

Well, where I was racist? Nor, I'm idioted enough to judge countries by posting "pictures". Not understood for sentence remark too.

tylann:
I decided to ignore him

Well, what could I say if you're going to ignore.

Le'm introduce myself because I haven't earlier. I'm a professional pressure equipment related technology engineer from India and research about geopolitical, military technology and economic issues is my hobby.

I had been with a lot of Pakistanis, Chinese, Russians, SE Asians, Iranians, Arabs, Latinos, Europeans & Americans, learning a lot about their countries and teaching them about mine.

This time, I thought of watching Africa. South Africa and Nigeria are to countries most Indians know about. As RSA is mixed with white ethnics and Indians a lot, I came here instead.
I know that you guys got elections soon and wanted to learn about Bihari and Atiku from you guys.

But most on this forum don't hold much of logics or info. Seems like from threads I've watched at least. They don't know about economics specially. I can offer a much better discussion with a pool of information.

obaaderemi:
That's not always the case,mister.
The German economy grew by over 2% while the South African economy, which is a poorer economy grew by 0.7% in 2018.

That means South Africa is suffering an economic crisis. Germany is perfectly scoring what it should.

obaaderemi:
Nigeria grew by over 6% in 2014 before the recession. We are just coming out and really 2% growth is not bad for a country just coming out of recession unless you don't know how bad a recession can be. Ask Malaysia which grew by -0.7% in 1998 during the Asian recession.

Minor inconsistencies due to short term financial crisis don't help to anticipate economic outlook at all.

Malaysia was growing very fast when it needed to.
First, Nigerian GDP growth was eaten by its population growth, second its dependent upon oil, not any of government policies or industrial outlook.


The two key things you've to pick for growth is Stability and then Economic Liberalisation to get investments. This was formula every Asian Economic boom from South Korea to Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Japan, China, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

To ensure investments after economic liberalisation, you need to guarantee stability against internal and external threats that's by a net security provider.

China, India and Japan were net security provider of themselves because of their strong militaries, rest were helped by Americans. Africa's problem is lack of stability at first place.

I guess that's census 2011 based on integration of unrecorded people from 2006.

Phone coverage was 87% in 2017 and toilets was 98.5%. Indian census 2021 will release real numbers about India.

1. They are quoting census 2011, in 2014, OD was down to 38%, in 18 just 11%. India has 98.5% sanitation coverage and 89% using them.[/b]Much better than most of Africa.
2. It's more of a matter of culture than needs. Ghana, one of Africa's biggest gainers and socio economic development continues to have highest open defecation rate in world. Countries like Nigeria on other hand lagging behind Ghana and Kenya in most aspects of development don't have recorded Open defecation more than 20-30%.

3. India has been improving much faster than Africa & other parts of world for last 27 years only overshadowed by China. In 1950, India's GDP (PPP) per capita was half of African average. Today, its double.

Be it with ending starvation, urbanization, poverty alleviation, India was fastest in world except East Asian countries. Even if some indicators are left, India will surpass Africa in even those in next 5-7 years.

4. Reliability of data itself is a big factor. Indian census covers every single citizen of India, his rough socio economic development. Meanwhile, countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and most countries in Africa, don't even properly estimate their real population. They depend upon surveys only.

5. India's per capita income, consumption & literacy is increasing and poverty, open defecation etc. are decreasing at fastest rates in world. Africa's high population growth rate and low economic growth rate is reversing little done development.
6. India's economic improvement is credited to industrialization and technology, Africa to natural resources.
There is a very good reason why an average Indian is able to file 65-85 times more IPRs annually than an average African.
As data isn't there, its not good to compare Africa & India. India and Africa don't even have same methods of estimating poverty.

More important, besides those few idioted racist Indians who started making fun of Africans on FB, Indians simply don't care about them.

Daejoyoung:
A 2% growth in Nigeria is equivalent to an 8% growth in Kenya. Smaller economies usually record higher growth than bigger economies because every little thing has an impact on it, this is why Africa is considered to be the fastest growing continent economically this decade, but it's still the poorest with the smallest economies worldwide.

No but "poorer" economies grow much higher than "richer" economies.
China, India & ASEAN are still growing despite being big in size because their economies are big because of populations but economies aren't rich.

If Nigeria is only growing at 2%, there is some serious problem needed to be addressed for sure.

win2kwire:
IGBO people have for over 50 years destroyed the Nigerian passport in all corners of the globe leading to ill treatment and humiliation of innocent Nigerians daily at many airports and cities around the world.

Hey mate, I'm from India & you don't need to be racist to hound one group.

asuustrike1:
There are unclad ladies in US and other European countries yet you rarely see their ladies been raped whereas countries like India and others have high rate of rape inspite of their covering. Therefore,naked and scanty dresses by ladies isn't a excuse for rape.

Factually incorrect, US & Europe have much higher rape rates than India, China & Far East.

Though yeah, cladding has little to do with it as short dresses are becoming more & more common in Indian Cities.
Japanese girls mostly wear short, they have most vulgaris movies, despite that rape rate is low.

Another factor into account here is definition of rape:

US & EU have wider definitions over marital rapes which are covered very loosely in domestic violence in India. Although, clothing trends are opening up & Indian girls wear western more commonly, modesty still matters in most of India.
A girl can't have pre marital sex otherwise she's forced to file rape case against the boyfriend. Or sometimes girl themselves do which is legtimized by police.
In US & EU, conditional pre marital consensual intercourse is never reported as rape unlike India.
Other two factors are under reporting and most important false accuses. Because a third of rape cases are found to be false.
After heinous 2012 rape case, feminist movement is working at full fledge in India. So, excessive media coverage is obvious here. For few years, British media is mad after India.

But it isn't the correct way to make judgements. Asia Pacific maintains some of lowest crime rates in world. Media coverage only makes narratives, stats reflect reality.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics