₦airaland Forum

The strength of Centre back positions is in communication

Two poor defenders who can communicate will perform much better than 2 good defenders who can't communicate

I say that to say, Alonso should not rotate the centreback pairings again

fredoooooo:
Barco over lavia ..

As you said that, he just got pressed to lose ball twice in scenarios Lavia will never get caught in

Rogers why na

Man like JP

Hato should come off for Chavalaria

That throwaway for the first goal was too disgusting

Na wa oh

Amateur stuff from Hato

Calamity defenders

swiz123:
That boy wey no dey pass ball? Always running with the ball and doing akpu obi.

This mumu just hates strong players causing him to rate weaklings like Felix and Wirtz and hate Rogers and Gordon. See what he said about Rogers

May God deliver us from spirit of weaklings

Rogers, £117m signing wey dey full belle unlike Wirtz

Tooooorrrr

afrodoc2:
Omo!

To watch TV don hard pass Further Maths o.

raumdeuter:
Is this true? See as Regina I am a master in my fathers house use our face rub sand

https://x.com/DanielofTruth/status/2098006620584226928

What an immature post

She say "she might still leave one day"

In Polygamy, this is the equivalent of sending an out of favour wife to go live in the village house. Ned is just cleaning up for societal optics but a wife "who might still leave one day" and whose kpekus has been shined in the intervening months in the wilderness is definitely out of favour now.

Unlimited22:
Ladies and gentlemen, although some of us already know, I say make I use this opportunity tell this honourable house say I have joined the League of wicked abroadians. I want to thank everyone(and there’s quite a few of us) who have contributed to this journey, by way of advice, finances, encouragement and support etc. May God bless each and every one of us, and may God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria(if it is necessary)

Late announcement. You no want make village people reason your matter

abduleez1:
Point me where I brought up Dangote Group financials as that of Dangote Refinery?

I simply stated what Dangote Refinery reported as its financials for H1 2026.

Dangote Cement had a total revenue of $3.10bn in FY2025 and a net profit of $740mn.

So how is that the same with Dangote Refinery financials of $13bn with $1.8bn net profit??...When the total Dangote Group revenue minus the new Petrochemical and Fertiliser companies are nowhere near the Refinery's?
And we all know Dangote Cement was the crown jewel and golden egg before the refinery was born.

Anyways, we'll have a clearer picture of the company's true financials sometime early next year when yearly financial reports starts releasing.

Like I've said in some of my posts, I don't believe at the moment Dangote Refinery is worth $50bn. I've said my own personal estimates takes it around $30-40bn.

And for the record, this is a stock value assessment; this is the worth investors believe the Dangote Refinery is worth (or what Dangote is selling to us as his worth).... It doesn't necessarily mean the actual net value of the company.

We can do this merry-go-round of arguments but we damn well know stocks doesn't necessarily mean the actual book value of an enterprise.

Apologies, no offence intended. I just didn't see the relevance of talking about Dangote Group when discussing Refinery valuation. Talking about a different company is not a case for the refinery. Case in point, Tiger Brands was left sucking a lemon with their investment in Dangote Flour mills and had to tuck their tail and run. Dangote Cement won't help you when you are taking a haircut on Flour Mills. So I think it's facetious and misleading especially to retail investors who have incomplete information to be conflating different companies when valuing a totally sperate entity. You see this on social media a lot with Elon Musk companies, his fanboys will be mixing Neuralink with Boring with Tesla with SpaceX to generate interest in a specific single company whereas they are different entities.

The road map is clear as to Dangote Refinery valuation. He cannot trade his way to that valuation, so he will use listings and leverage to get there

Step 1: List a miniscule float on NSE that the Nigerian market can fill to generate a high valuation

Step 2: Use that high valuation to borrow against the company value to pay off existing debt and expand refinery capacity

Step 3: Use the expanded capacity as narrative to list more float on a foreign stock exchange to bring in liquidity that can uphold the valuation achieved in Step 1


It's list - leverage - list. A cycle of expanding Liquidity and leverage, but in all of these, there is not much Capital growth upside on the valuation achieved in Step 1 because he has already cashed his chips early in Step 1. So he will use liquidity expansion from foreign stock exchanges to achieve what the company cannot trade out of with performance.

Man like Welbz

Morgan Rogers- £117m transfer fee wey dey full belle

Unlike 🧢aldi boy Wirz wey need plenty shalaye

Man like Welbz

The nigga literally dribbled 2 defenders with just a swivel of his head

Top play!

No Palmer slander will ever be tolerated

Tooooorrrr

Gittens should go and rest please

We can't squeeze water from stone

Let's see what Quenda can do on that wing

I hate wasting minutes on dead projects, let's see something new

That's what Estevao does

Gusto na correct goat. Which Kain insha'Allah is that

User09:
To be fair, the new shares are just around 3-4% dilution of cap table.A good indication though, means they are retaining ownership and prob still feel strongly about the project. Also them saying they are doubling capacity means excessive Capex which they still are yet to disclose means of possible funding.

Nope, there are usually only 2 reasons for a small float, the same reason SpaceX released a very small float and it is aimed at the debt markets later down the line

1.) Restricting supply so there is enough liquidity to buy up a small float at a valuation you wish to achieve . . . .but there is not enough liquidity to buy up a large float that will reflect the true price investors are willing to pay

2.) The small float being bought up at the price you set puts the company at a massive valuation which you can pledge against massive borrowing

So the intention is massive borrowing based on overvaluation. And the float is small enough that you (Dangote and friends) can personally provide enough liquidity to keep it above the strike price at which you would be forced to liquidate stock to pay off debts. It's an infinite loop. This is the SpaceX playbook.

Your final sentence gives the game away -

User09:
Also them saying they are doubling capacity means excessive Capex which they still are yet to disclose means of possible funding.

Yes, they will have excessive CAPEX for expanding the refinery by unlocking borrowings from the debt markets that the overvaluation will allow them to unlock, and pledge that value against the debt.

User09:
I could stress test their entire numbers and at best I see a $15 - $18bn valuation and I wonder their hedge is against crude oil pricing. Any body who wants to enter should probably wait 6 months post IPO, lets see what it looks like then

Any reasonable Price to Earnings valuation will put them around the numbers you have stated. Even without looking at the numbers in detail, I know instinctively the initial business case would have been to deliver a 20-30% IRR on a $10bln investment. Refining is a low margin business, not a blue sky business, so even in optimistic market conditions provided by the Iran war, let's say it has over performed by 50% using Crude Oil price growth as a benchmark, it would be an investment that is performing to the returns expected from a $15bln investment (which is exactly 50% above the initial business case)

So how do you turn a circa $15bln low margin, high volume business into a $50-60bln valuation? By promising Blue Sky shyt like expanding into the worlds largest refinery and let the market price it in. Never mind that the cost of expansion already will load leverage that will dilute most of the growth in the Net Asset Value.

Abduleez1 is bringing Dangote Group financials to bolster the case for the refinery which is what we usually see from Elon Musk fanboys who will be conflating the financials of one company with another to sell/buy the hype

As I always say, the capital markets are different from the real economy. Dangote will achieve his IPO valuation as Capital markets are irrational but fundamentals will always show he is overselling his value. When companies float with opaque financials and usually at the period of maximum EBITDA as is the case with current oil prices, they are usually looking to capitalise on a unique moment in time that doesn't stack up over the 20-30 years you expect an investment to trade it's way back to zero NPV. Narrative investing now pays off more than traditional valuations and unscrupulous CEOs are taking advantage of the asymmetry in information since retail will go off narratives than traditional Balance Sheet valuations and EBITDA multiples. And Hedge funds know this and will help the CEOs knowing retail will provide the liquidity backfill. So I can't fault Dangote for going the route that most CEOs are going down. Elon and Huang etc already proved narrative is King but it's incredulous to me that a margin business like refining will try to sell low probability fantasy like the tech industry does.

Usually in the months or year leading to IPO, you see a lot of creative accounting to bolster EBITDA multiple valuations. If you stress test the refineries $0.5bln loss last year against $1.8bln profit YTD, I'm sure you will see a lot of creative accounting, balance sheet revaluations etc aimed toward this IPO. Last year I was Finance no2 in a FTSE listed company that got bought out. We took the most optimistic scenario on most balance sheet scenarios in the 6 months while the bids were coming in. That helped keep and push up the valuations. As soon as we were taken over, the new company instructed me to immediately write down so many Balance Sheet items which amounted to about 4% of our NAV which was the most pessimistic view as it should have been around 2% write down using a balanced approach. Again, it's easier for them to report to the market the value of write downs they absorbed immediately upon takeover, then slowly write them back up as profit over the next 2 years to smoothen their quarterly earnings until analysts forget about the takeover.

Silentgroper:
Let's get one thing clear here ..


Una fit boast with CL , but you see that world champion , make una help me dead that talk ..

E no get weight ..


World champion, world champion , yet who una manage win due to fatigue for the world champion still chop una anyhow for CL the following season ..


Pls for all our sake , dead that world champion talk ...

Fatigue agenda is back!

BlueRayDick:
I have a friend currently sitting in my DM eager to put any liquid he can lay his hands on into buying Dangote refinery shares at the IPO. My guy just wants me to say the word "GO" so he can buy as many shares as he can afford. I just told him to allowme till weekend when I will be less busy so I can send him voice note on the dangers that comes with this kind of IPO Dangote dey do.

If I don't know of anything else, at least I know of Daar Communications IPO which my papa and so many optimistic investors had their money trapped into after fully subscribing to the shares @ N5 per share in 2008. The Daar Communications stock was on a steady decline for years that it was even below 50 kobo per share at some point. I remember the last time I had a discussion with my old man in 2021 about AIT and Dokpesi name came up, baba dey cuss Dokpesi for the "scam" he package give them at the IPO.

While I understand the gingah wey dey everybody to buy Dangote shares because of the prospects of the refinery earning dollars in the future, I think most Nigerians do not understand that revenue does not necessarily translate to profit.... Neither does it mean the share value will even appreciate to exponential levels.

As someone who has always been risk averse, my advice for people who sort my opinion on this Dangote IPO issue is for them to take things slow. Me Personally I won't buy the shares at the IPO; I will wait for the post-IPO dip and buy then see what happens in the future. I don't want to buy shares that will be valued at N525 at IPO and then after 2 years the same shares will be around N200 to N300.

The refinery definitely has prospects, but there are some cons too with refinery operations. All these yeye wars here and there fit affect feedstock and affect the chances of the refinery operating at optimum capacity. When that happens, profit may dip. Nigeria playing host nation to the refinery does not even have enough feedstock to give the refinery and imported crude may be affected by factors beyond the control of Dangote refinery itself. So, make people no go put money wey be their life savings for investment in refinery in its infancy years.

Usually at IPO is when unscrupulous CEOs will float some future unrealistic promise of revenue and profit flows to justify a jumped up valuation sometimes ten times more than what the company is worth. In Dangotes case, his selling line is expansion of the refinery to become the biggest refinery in the world. Never mind the fact that a good feasibility study may show he doesn't have the space or ship loading space to handle that volume, lacks reliable feedstock and would be capital intensive requiring further funding rounds that will either saddle the company with debt, or cause them to issue more shares to raise the capital needed for expansion. In addition, valuation calculations will be based on an unrealistic volume at unrealistic oil prices which recent wars have afforded him but will not always be the case. At every stage each input of the valuation calculations have been overblown. In addition, he will only float a low percentage of stock (say 10-20%) as there is not enough demand to fill bids if he floats a substantial percentage. We have now gotten to the stage where a $10bln dollar refinery whose profit flows were modelled to cover only $10bln saw costs overrun to $20bln, therefore original volume projections needed to double. . . . is now being valued at $60bln

The real story is Dangote needs to raise money to pay off the borrowings of the overrun and is scamming the public to raise it.

It's straight from the Elon Musk playbook (low float, unrealistic promises and unscrupulous bundling) in order to achieve a ridiculous valuation. Musk took SpaceX ($300bln), bundled in Grok and valued that at $1.4trln, promising AI data centres in space and other nonsense that will achieve trillions in phantom revenue, and released a low float (around 5% if memory recalls). Dangote is following same Yahoo format with his promise of making the refinery the largest in the world while light on details of the impact of the funding raise to achieve that. I only feel sorry for Nigerians who thought the refinery would subsidise their fuel cost only to house a refinery that must sell at the highest international price to justify even 1/3 of it's jumped up valuation. The minute Dangote starts selling below market price to Nigerians, analysts will hammer the stock.

Dangote is pulling an Elon Musk. Promising unrealistic heaven and earth from his refinery to overvalue the IPO and use mugus as exit liquidity. He would soon promise refining capacity on the moon.

Kikelomogbenga:
Just see the difference in reply between Yamal and Mbappe when both were asked about winning the balon dor. Mbappe is really out of touch with reality after two consecutive trophy less season at Madrid. The fans are already losing their patience with him and he's still bragging and begging for the award shamelessly. If Yamal had a great world cup he would have won the balon dor by a wide margin.

Top scorer in LaLiga
Top scorer in UCL
Top scorer in World Cup

No player in history has combined these 3 achievements in the same year

It's Balon d'Or not team award

If Mbappe can't stake his claim, everyone else should be quiet

lordfalcao:
That lewis skelly is highly aggressive and physical. He is the most physical in all arsenal midfielders

🧢aldi the stan of frail players like Wirtz and João Felix can never be a good judge of what physicality looks like

Lewis Skelly is exactly the same height, same weight, same build and same speed as Caicedo who is a very physical player.

airmark:
5ft11 is too short when contesting aerially against Haaland, Sesko both at 6ft 5 and Havertz at 6ft 4. James will be hapless against a cross well delivered on a plate for those strikers that would make first and second runs to displace him in the box.

First and second runs will displace anybody whether 5ft 2 or 6ft 4

The purpose of height is not to get outjumped and there is no way you will jump with James and win clean headet

airmark:
Is he not too short for a CB in EPL?

Not at all. He is perfect for it. With his build, he wins most aerial duels or puts the striker off balance completely. Strikers are mostly unbalanced by body weight in aerial duels, not by height