₦airaland Forum

It is disgusting and I don't support it. I don't subscribe to the aphorism, "in war, all is fair".

However, any smart person will know that it is a mind game, a way to demoralize PDP supporters from coming out to vote on April 11, or giving impression that APC is now in charge.

Kind of: "See your party. It is dead".

This man comes with a lot of goodwill.

I have never seen someone with such goodwill in my life.

The international community respect is just too much.

I pray he doesn't disappoint, because the expectations are very high.

Who's Maheeda?

In Cyprus here, we don't know her.

joseph1832:
So GMB was born poor also, but how come we didn't hear him say "he had no shoe" when he was campaigning?.

He didn't dwell on that.

Many people were born without shoes.

Obasanjo was. Buhari was. Shagari was.

Buhari reared cattle as a young village boy.

No big deal in being born poor. 70% of accomplished men in Nigeria, especially of their era, we're.

They look alike.

manck2:
[b][size=18pt]The Law Require Before Declaring Anyone Winner...


Keep quiet, the law require buhari to get 1/3 of the total vote cast, in 2/3 of the state Jonathan won, except if they have change the law.

So you are going to see people go to court over the issue.



the law requires the winner to have the following.

1. buhari most win by a simple majority .
2. Buhari most get 1/3 of the total vote in a state of 2/3 Jonathan state won ( the argument of Awolowo Vs shagari under Justice Akinjide case) (reason why this law, is because of tribalism in nigeria.)
3. buhari most get at least 1/3 the total vote in a state in 2/3 of the total number of state.




If buhari does not have 1/3 of the total vote cast in a state in 2/3 of the state Jonathan won, the result will be cancelled. And a run off would be call

So show me, the final result.

You have to look at the state Jonathan won, and see, if number 2 happen, this is the most important part, in nigeria election. except if they have change the law. but if the law is still the same.. you a person most have all this to be declare winner.

In the case of awolowo vs Shagari.

Awolowo won 5 state(ogun, ondo, lagos, oyo, bendle),
azikiwe won 4 state( anambra, imo, cross rivers, rivers),
waziri won 2 state borno and gongola.
Aminu kano won kano state.

When you add 5 + 4 + 2 + 1= 12 state.. of 19 state.

Shagari won just 7 states.. it is not required by law to win 2/3 of the state, but more of 1/3 of the total vote in 2/3 of the total states. And 1/3 of 2/3 of your closest rival state won.

This is why Orubabe may have been fighting jega.


To explain this following requirement

1. win by a simple majority .
2. Buhari most get 1/3 of the total vote in a state of 2/3 Jonathan state won ( the argument of Awolowo/Akinjide/Shagari case)
3. buhari most get at least 1/3 the total vote in a state in 2/3 of the total number of state.


2. If Jonathan won 12 states.. Nigeria law requires buhari to get 1/3 of the total vote cast 8 states of those state Jonathan won.

If Jonathan won Benue, Imo, and rivers state.. Buhari is required by law to get 1/3 of the total vote cast in 2 of this state.. May be imo or rivers or benue and imo.



3. This law means buhari most get 1/3 of the total vote cast in 2/3 of the total state cast. meaning if there are 12 state in Nigeria.. buhari most get 1/3 of the total vote cast in 8 states of Nigeria.

Only 1 and 3 did buhari meet. So you dont have to congratulate anyone yet. There may be a run off of the election. if a court case is heard.[/size][/b]

Funniest post I have seen in recent time. After the bus has left the station.

Texcoco:
[color=#1980BC] Since the array of loyalties didn't throw a landslide (but pipped the narrowest of margins even as bad as PDP is percieved )to an election far removed from them as the presidential especially with them having a big stake as Osnibajo,we are wondering how they can source a victory if Ambode so much as conceed 10% of yoruba votes...now observing your stance "yorubas don care about tribe" we must presume they don't care about parties but the character and expertise btw two candidates [as it proved with Jimi in 2011] therefore Ambode will surely conceed at least 10% of APC votes casted last weekend via a shift or split in yoruba votes....Ambode is gone[/color]

Yorubas care about parties. Only very few don't.


Tinubu has enough loyalists in Lagos grassroots to deliver Lagos. That is the message. Those men and women that can die for Jagaban.

Texcoco:
[color=#1980BC] But GEJ was successful spliting your votes, go figure the landslide in little abia and ebonyi wiping out SW differentials including Lagos combined....didn't you see how PDP narrowly lost Lagos?? Was it expected to be so? Now that the contest will be btw two yorubas, we urge you to do the maths. [/color]

LOL. Yorubas don't care about tribe. It is you people that do.

Nobody cares if Jimi is Yoruba or not. He's PDP and the array of Tinubu's loyalists that are well-grounded in every corner of Lagos are enough to take care of him.

Texcoco:
[color=#1980BC] Cold fear don dey catch you ba?? Don't worry, Ambode will bear the whiplash of the Buhari's victory...If PDP voters will be disillusioned and might not turn up,APC voters will all go on vacation out of over celebration.....whatever happens,Jimi Agbaje will split Yoruba votes, Ambode can as well park to his Ondo hometown... [/color]

The same way we heard GEJ will "split Yoruba votes" and win all Igbo votes to win Lagos. Some of you even claimed Igbos/Niger Deltans are more than Yorubas in Lagos and will swing votes in favour of GEJ.

The result? A 165k gap.

chukwudi44:
Lol fear don de catch you ni? I bet you 99 99% of those who voted for PDP last Saturday will repeat the same pattern next week. But at 30% of those who voted APC last Saturday will switch to PDP next week.
.you call okada riders as barely few thousands, you seriously think only the okada riders were affected? What about their customers? What about the millions ofpoor people who bear the brunt of Fashola's elitist policies?
=bros ask the average yoruba man in Lagos, their mantra is change in Abuja and Lagos

Your view is respected, but I see sentiments written all over it. Unfortunately, analysis is not by sentiments.

ndcide:
Jarus, why do you believe in Ambode?

Frankly, I have never been torn between political choices.

I like articulate personalities and I think Jimi has that more than Ambode.

My only reason for wanting Ambode ahead of him is to continue Fashola's legacies.

That said, my goal in this thread is to analyse a political likelihood not an expression of "likeness for Ambode" which is your question.

The thing wey Pa Eziachi dey see sitting, his "GEJtillsomething" grandchildren no dey see standing.

RE-ASSESSING JIMI AGBAJE's CHANCE IN LAGOS

Does Jimi Agbaje still stand a chance in Lagos?

APC beat PDP by 165k votes in the presidential elections.

There are many people, especially okada riders and taxi drivers, that wanted to vote for Buhari but not Ambode.

I don't see their population covering up the 165k gap.

More significantly, I see many pro-PDP Lagosians, especially Igbos and Niger Deltans, getting disillusioned and not coming out to vote on April 11 because Jonathan has lost.

And the reverse will be the case for Tinubu's loyalists, those men and women in those Lagos communities, who are likely going to be more encouraged to come out to vote.

And "Federal might" (Police in particular) may not be motivated to cooperate again.

Agbaje may lose by even bigger margin.

securi:
Bros, I didn't dispute that Sir. I responded to someone accussing the northern Govs for not delivering their states and explained reasons being ethnic alliance and that the Govs can't do much in such situation. Its only SW votes that looks reasonable I agree with you Bros.

Fair enough.

Well, I think we have different motives for what we do here.

All my social media political comments have been based on my personal convictions, not for any pecuniary consideration.


I have spent personal resources on Buhari. In 2011, we Nairalanders rooting for Buhari raised close to N1m to sponsor radio jingles for him. We never expected anything.

This year, I spent close to 100k from personal resources for the Buhari project, sponsoring radio jingles for the General, just because of my belief in his ability.

I have never been approached by APC for anything and I don't want to. If anything, the two invites I got were from PDP.

One was from one of the TAN groups sometime in November last year to work for them. I rejected the offer.

I got another from Kwara PDP of a position if they win, I ignored too.

I accept his explanation that he may not have been offered any inducement to "port", but I think people without ideology and don't stand for anything are the ones that move from one camp to another. Consistency of political beliefs is key for me

oyb:
abegi - we have the same disgust for FFK. the abrupt unprincipled flipflopping is sickening

he made his choice - he thought he was on the winning team - let him wander in the wilderness

pathetic - several of us on the celebratory thread were raw in 2011, but we still carried on - Jarus could have chosen to become a pdp knave - and so could so many others. we dont need the noisemaking of a mindless mercenary

Don't mind the guy.

A lillupitian and naïve political commentator.

He is a learner. I pity him though.

securi:
Thank you, people voted purely on ethnic and religion line in the north, am sure the Govs tried their best but didn't work.The change to the ppl from the north is for power to return back to them and doesn't have anythng to do with economic and social reform, if GEJ is from the north no matter the shout for change they will still vote him.infact if Buhari and Jonathan have been disqualified then and Sambo and Osibanjo contest all those votes for APC would have gone to Sambo, a northerner is a northerner shikena, if you are in doubt check the voting pattern in 2011 and see if there is much diff in the NE and NW.My worry is that we are still not united, no common interest even with the alliance.

And the people of SS and SE that voted massively for GEJ did not vote along ethnic and religious lines abi?


Na number just pass number, Oga. Both were guilty.

Lawalemi:
Stewpid aboki governors. They chose not to deliver their states to GEJ

There e was not way they could have delivered their stateto GEJ, even if they put guns in front of those voters

IykeChukz:
Love her...
But come to think of it, is she happy for Nigeria or for herself?

Better be Nigeria oh as you learn from history.

Will you be sad for yourself if you become First Lady of Nigeria?

Tunjasko:
Power don change hand....she was part of those who contributed to d Jona downfall.... rest and retire well in otuoke abi na okrika

She was responsible for Jonathan's fall-out with Amaech and many other politicians who happened to be one of the people that spearheaded the loss of her husband.

How much votes did they "share" to Buhari here again?

mbulela:
His Egbon said the same thing before he started licking oil.
Tell him that i said the case is slightly different here; he has adored the general for most of his adult life. Not damascus converts like Egbon Segun and ogbeni Reuben

He stood his ground. He said he would never take it. That politics/government is just not his path.

mbulela:
On an unrelated note, call your friend Simon and tell him to get ready to occupy the former seat of his Egbon Segun :-)

I doubt it. But let me go and tease him sir.

Reporting

mbulela:
Apologies for my typo.
I have modified the post and made myself clearer.
Those guys are GEJ backers through and through.

But they fell out towards the end of last year, or maybe when they saw the handwriting on the wall.

mbulela:
Atedo your godfather has learnt a lesson in his old age.
How a man I once respected rubbished himself in the name of ethnicity. Parochial sentiments I never expected from a seemingly intelligent man.

Well, Atedo was and still remains my "professional mentor". That cannot change. He was a fine investment banker that ranks high on corporate governance.

I have never agreed with his political interventions since he became vocal on politics/political economy post-banking career.

So I don't know what you mean.

And let me tell you another Dele Momodu tale: I have not hidden my disagreement with him on his post-banking political leaning and he knows that. I made that known in my book, The Road to VI, where I dedicated a chapter to him, and I finished the chapter with a statement to the effect that I disagree with his style since he started talking on politics. He had read the book and given his feedback.

So the banker Atedo remains my hero, but the political commentator Atedo I never agreed with from day 1.

mbulela:
Jarus and his Dele Momodu tales!
There is no proof these guys were anything but GEJ cheerleaders. Let's not try to rewrite history that was obvious to even the partially sighted. Next thing we would be told that Hajiya Bola Shagaya votes for Buhari.
They can all realign interests for the sake of their businesses but we as the people do not want business as usual where the interest of a few overwhelms the governance of the masses.

I didn't get your point on this: "These guys were anything but GEJ cheerleaders"


Are you saying these guys did not covertly support Buhari all along?

Are you saying I was not aware of where their support lied throughout?


Please let me know exactly what you meant by that post.

I can ignore your "Dele Momodu tale" part

oyb:
all those guys worked behind the scenes to take gej down

it was only those tandroids making noise

do you know what gej has done to the economy with his incompetence?

do you have any idea how much the fg owes petroleum marketers?

you think they would sit still and let him run them into the ground?

the fact that these guys are appearing so soon in the inner circle is all the answer you need.

They played their card to their chest.

I only pity the Ayeni man, Skye Bank Chairman, and Atedo Peterside. But we are not out for vengeance sha.

They all supported Buhari.

Wale Tinubu, Dangote, Femi Otedola only played their card to their chest.

I was having a chat with someone closed to them and he revealed all that far back February.


Femi Otedola was once going round his office and asking his staff who they will vote for. Knowing him to be GEJ's friend and in other not to offend his Oga, he said he would vote for GEJ. Femi scolded the guy.

They forgot this man fought military regime as ASUU national chair.

Where is guru maharani?

Accepted defeat already