Jedisco's Posts
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jedisco: jedisco:If xrp makes a runner, I'd look to cut some around 2 dolls and perhaps bid a retest of 1.6...
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jedisco: jedisco:I'd look to cut some of my Aave around 700 if it gets there... Don't think the top is in, but in these market conditions, I like having firepower and would be bidding 580-600 for a repeat
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On betece.... I've attached 2 charts which contain same untouched trendlines from my January post... First is a daily chart which also shows the RSI has been making lower highs and lower lows for sometime now... 2nd is a 4hr chart which sheds more light on recent PA Lets see the bullish vs bearish case... Bullish case: 1. Betece held the 21 week EMA last week despite the selloff 2. Both 4hrly and daily RSI are bottoming with the 4hr already in oversold territory... Good also is that they are forming bullish divergence so far 3. The hash ribbons (shared here a while back) which is quite an accurate indicator has already printed a capitulation signal, soon enough, it'd print a buy signal which would signifiy a good opportunity 4. Market is extremely bearish currently- though not a technical reason, I'd be surprised betece dumps thru 40k straightaway without at least getting a relief rally considering market sentiment Bearish case: 1. Betece has lost the diagonal support (see attached charts)... While this can be a fakeout, what happens when it gets to retest that trendline would be significant. For a support that has held for long, loosing it proper would mean significant downside.. 2. Though the daily RSI is at bottom, there's still some room to go lower into the oversold territory... 3. With repeated rejection off 60k, betece has to find proper support where new buyers are willing to go all in... Below 40k has lots of support clusters and would be a sweet area for new money. In summary, there are good reasons to support either scenario.... But personally, I wouldn't be selling betece into an RSI that looks that way now.... I'm playing this bullish and would be adding on dips and targeting the 49.5 k region to reduce exposure and re-evaluate. If things nuke, so be it
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jedisco:I remember sharing this in January when betece was at a similar precarious situation, reason I quoted this post is that I'd be sharing same charts in that post, see what's happened since and examine the bullish and bearish case |
On Elon... There's been alot of talk about his effect on this space and him being the cause of this drop.... While one cannot deny the correlation between the timing of his tweets and some market moves, the thing is with crypt0, it's easy to get carried away with the narrative and forget the big picture... If you've traded this market long enough, you'd agree that from time to time, bitc0in correlates with certain things before going on to do its thing.. Take the last year for example... It was once so correlated with the US stock market that it'd mimic intraday US market moves... I had to start monitoring the S&P then.... everyone then was about how the US stock market controls crypt0.... After a while, betece moved its way... Later it was how betece would always dump at the opening of trading hours in Asia...this continued for a while before decoupling... Now it's Elon... I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few months, we'd ne blaming dips on something else Case in point is that the initial part of this bullrun has been quite fast and most new folks who joined this space recently are only used to bitc0in going up and call dooms day on every dip... Wouldn't blame no one. Bitc0in has had 6 straight green months... It's easy to forget that rarely occurs. Folks should also remember it's also had 6 straight red months too and it wasn't the end of crypt0. Give bitc0in some credit it's come a long way. In the 2017 run, as betece travelled from 2 to 20k, there were multiple >30% retracements. Each of those pullbacks came with its own narrative and FUD, weak hands sold, strong hands bought... This rally is just having its first really deep retracement... Of course, there'd be more in future, and there'd always be a narrative... Let's look at some narratives over the last year From 12-10k: Bitfinex CEO arrested and investigated. From 58-43k: US stock market crashing and crypt0 going much lower From 60-47k: US president announced new tax rules and US citizens closing crypt0 trades.. Some people bought these dips, some panic sold into these dips, some simply stayed away But then, (although not apparent at the time), looking at the monthly chart (attached), we can see thst as far back as January, 60k had already started showing sighs of being proper resistance... Personally, I believe big money have just been taking profits at that level and looking to reload lower. My point is that in crypt0, volatility is part of the game and there'd always be a narrative for every dip.... Every dip comes with proper FUD and every rally with proper FOMO.... One can play it to their benefit or get lost with the narrative. I prefer to filter out the noise and focus on what's important..cos in this space, the majority never wins
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IMAliyu:Betece was able to close above the weekly ema last week which was a good thing... It's a weekly candle and still has 7 days to close.... At this stage, a monday/Tuesday selloff before reclaiming the range and closing as a bullish hammer will not surprise me |
jedisco:Almost there..... Will ada give me 1.8 ![]()
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jedisco:Link at 35 LTC at 250 Hmm.... |
jedisco:On the breakout group, I went with aave and it's had a nice bounce so far...... Still think the others are equally as hot |
jedisco:Glad I got into this position... It looks to be revving it's cylinders.... Hopefully, it doesn't collapse under the Betece pressure.... Once betece settles, it should make a runner... |
Almajirihunter:Added to initial post |
People fail to understand that it's easier for betece to dump on a day everyone thinks its bullish and going to the moon e.g at when it was 62k than on a day when the overwhelming majority thinks it's bearish and going to nuke..... This market does not reward fear. |
Mizwalterz:EPS is a coyn that has been listed for less than 8 weeks.... Ideally, one should wait for such coyns to selloff before going close... Portfolio allocation, is an important aspect of risk management... If you don't want to buy betece, then sensibly own some majors that'd maintain structure during dips... They have less volatility and nay not pump as much but you're more likely to leave this space with profits than randomly chasing new coyns.. One thing you should remember is that every rally comes with it's new coyns... The new coyns that did well this rally would be lost the next as folls would move on... It's the major caps you're likely to hold even in dips cos you're sure it'd bounce back in time |
Almajirihunter:I don't gie advice on when to buy coins... But my best trades in this space were days like this when I woke and the sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish (with everyone feeling the market is going much lower) and I averaged into bitc0in... (E.g 44.5k, 42.5k, 40.5k) Almost always, 2-3 weeks down the line, I looked like a genius.... On betece it's easier cos at this stage, even if the market continues dipping, It'd very likely comeback to retest this level in few weeks... Another advantage of buying such dips and is that when stuff reverses and those who were scared now FOMO into pupms and start telling how things are going to the moon, you'd smile, be level headed and take profits cos you bought a dip and know things don't go up in a straight line... |
It's interesting how same thing keeps happening in this market over and over again and yet people react thesame way anytime it happens... Let me draw our attention to the weekly RSI so people can appreciate where we are in the market... First RSI shows momentum in the market... Mostly likened to buying/selling pressure.... When it's oversold, it means folks are selling more. I've attached the weekly RSI which spans over the last 6 years... Generally, the midrange (around 50-56) acts as support in a bull market amd as resistance in a bear market... The point I'm making is simple... If you're sh*tying your pants on this, you're better off packing your load when there's a relief rally and leaving crypt0... The RSI will definitely dip into oversold territory one day and would remain there for months (of course there'd always be a narrative).... Thesame euphoria we witnessed over the past months will be replaced by proper FUD.... Folks are already asking a bear market and I'm smiling... In a bear market, the FUD is x10 of what we have now, it's unrelenting and unforgivable..... It's easy to say I'd buy the blood during a rally, it's another to really buy it when it comes It's interesting how this space has grown.. I've not yet seen anyone who's traded crypt0 over 1 year that's calling dooms day on this.... Even if it dips much lower folks have seen worse and they know stuff will still rebound..
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jedisco:Update on this..... It's called respecting a level.... Bulls are lurking Two other things I see..... 1. Two wicks on the weekly charts to around 43k (blue arrows)... This selloff didn't takeout the previous wick... Further makes me think perhaps one more capitulation dip to take out liquidity on both levels... 2. A pattern that looks like a 'head and shoulder pattern' on the weekly... That'd be a bearish one if it breaks down... Personally, I'm not so bothered about it... There's also a bullish case and patterns should be played only on confirmation
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Ibime:No wahala... Hopefully, the week brings good news |
Ibime:Ok... But at what rate did you sell? Just curious |
Ibime:My brother you know at 60k, Bitc0in still has about the highest ROI among investments of the past decade...... People are used to bitc0in always on the move.. sometimes, it just ranges. Last year, bitc0in spent 6-8 weeks in a very narrow range between 9k and 9.4k... it's about a trillion dollar industry now, rapid movements will take time... The expansion we're enjoying as this bullrun was cooked in almost 3 years of proper consolidation... Many folks came in after 20k and are used to bitc0in only going up... This time last year, virtually no one would have envisaged a 60k bitc0in in February this year... One thing you're very right about is always being cautious in buying... whether dips or rallies.... Out of curiosity, at what price did you sell? |
DigitalMallam:Hehe... What coyn did you buy? 2ndly... Did you think the market only goes in one direction? The fear is getting palpable... |
Ibime:Crypt0 space is still relatively new... lot's of possibilities into the future...lets see how it goes... You're right in buying dips with caution to avoid catching a falling knife... That's why it's sensible to buy in stages or close to support zones and not all at once... One can always add on confirmation... But same way, we should exercise more caution in buying green.... But quick question.... What was betece's performance before institutions came along? Secondly, do you really think big money isn't layering into this dip?..... If no one was buying, it'd have dipped to 20k already.... As brutal as the capitulation to 4k last year was it was guzzled up..... People underestimate how far this space has come P.s... it's always interesting how quickly narratives in crypt0 change... It can switch from really bullish to proper bearish in hours... |
jedisco:Got there...no problems... Some bids still sitting in the support cluster beneath...
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WTF is this ![]() Reason why I keep off new and popular coyns until the hype has died down....then I evaluate how many trapped folks are looking to escape
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nna777:Lol... Sometimes, such posts make me wish the bullrun is over mk all man settle down |
Ibime:On buying, you must not buy everything today, it's always good to have cash just in case or stacked low bids on majors On Elon, one cannot deny the effect of Elon's tweets right now but seriously, I think it hastens what's already in place... Right now, it's difficult to agree with.. Lemme give examples... Every proper betece dip comes with a narrative... It's the narrative that makes folks irrationally sell causing a capitulation. It's that same irrational selling that whales use to fill their bags.. That's why when folks say I wish bitc0in will dip to --- so I buy, I just smile cos they've not experienced the fear surrounding such dips The last brutal betece dip from 12k to 10k, the narrative was that bitfinex ceo was arrested and the exchange partly hacked... Of course, fear was plapable... Looking back, we see how it went... Same also, with the selloff to 4k last year.... Very very few bought in... Most thought the market was done Recently, when it was announced that Tesla sold some part of their holdings, that happened when betece was at 52k... It didn't stop a rally to 60k and subsequent rejection..... Also, Tesla was done buying bitc0in before they made the announcement... It was after the announcement that the coyn rallied past 40k... Personally, I'd say the buying that caused the breakout occured around the bottom of the initial selloff at 28-30k..... Regarding betece currently, there's a daily cluster around 43k, there's chance price goes for it... Most times, when betece starts selling off slowly like this, I start getting skeptical...same with when it starts toying around resistance.... I've come to see that when betece is ready to break a resistance/support, it goes for it and doesn't toy around. I have some low bids on the leveraged tokens of certain coyns, just hoping they fill up overnight |
Of late, there's been an increase in the number of posts offering free this and free that... Even though I know most are scams, I'm saying this cos there seem to be some new folks buying in... The other day, someone was looking to buy an unlisted coyn as their first coyn in crypt0...... It's no doubt that such folks would likely lose it all... People should understand that there's no free lunch... Also, folks should understand that with unlisted coyns come huge volatility... If you've been unable to trade the 'slow moving' large caps profitably, chances are you'd get eaten up in that space if not careful... Finally, can those offering numerous 'free tokens' please tone down on spamming this thread?... |
Ibime:My brother, this market no easy.... No free lunch... But I tell myself, if I can't buy proper fear, then I shouldn't be buying proper greed.. On LTC, there's been so much buying at 300 without a proper bounce that I'm holding fire for now... Makes me think it'd dip to 250.... Same with link too (a dip to 35)... Also, I'm yet to see some proper capitulation on betece.. On betece, if I was buying it, I wouldn't be as bothered... I'd just place my bids at levels and go to bed.... Even if it sells off to 38k, in a matter of weeks, it'd be knocking on the doors of 46k again... on betece, I can blindly buy strong support... Na alyts dey give wahala |
Ojemedad:Lol... When the time to buy the lowest of the low comes, you'd be thanking God for not buying last week.... It's easy to quote those saying buy the blood and sell the greed when the market is green.... It's another thing to really buy the blood brother... |
Finally... On betece... I'm still waiting for the daily close...and yes the daily candle is looking nasty so far. But just a quick reminder... Betece is oversold on the 4hr RSI (1st chart) and close to being oversold on the daily RSI (2nd).... On both, it's already printed bullish divergence (i.e lower price on lower selling momentum)... That's typical of panic selling The last time the daily RSI dipped this low was over a year ago... Even the selloff from 12 to 10k last year didn't dip this low on the RSI... That should give an idea of how often it happens. On this whole rally up, the 4hr RSI printing bullish divergences while being oversold has marked a good point of entry on a selloff In summary, even though betece is looking more and more like it'd nuke downward (and yes it may), selling into an oversold RSI both on the 4hr and daily doesn't look like a good idea....Such opportunities should be bought and make no mistake, whatever the narrative, folks are buying this fear....
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Ibime:I'm waiting for betece daily close and would be sharing thoughts on it looking at both the bullish and bearish case... But one thing I know about this market is that it does not reward fear.. Funny enough, it's more likely to reward greed than fear...... On majors.... Ada seems to be on board now, Xlm and xrp are looking to be next.... I'm not so keen on etc yet except for range plays... It's just had a parabolic rally which was also based on eiths strength... safe to assume it'd consolidate for a while........ But then, it's close to the daily support, an entry at that support should portend a good risktp reward |
Still on majors.... Ltc and link (to a lesser extent) have been following a distinct pattern since the turn of this year.... Take LTC for example (1st chart)... It's usually 2-3 weeks of an upward rally and then 1-2 weeks of a selloff to confirm support before resuming the upward rally... But then, it maintains an uptrend by still maintaining higher lows and higher highs each time That this pattern has been in repeat for so long makes me think that same folks who are buying the pullbacks are those selling the rallies.. it's called smart money... LTC's current support are at 300 and 250... For link its 40 and 35 For those that keep asking what to buy at the highs, this is the time to ready your shopping bags... LTC from its current 300 back to 420 is a cool 40%, if it dips to 250, that's even better. If you were happy with buying the top, you should be more happy in buying the pullback.
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Betece with 7 straight red candles on the 30 min chart... Looking like one of those times where it creates one fat red candle or a selloff that's bought up The fear in the market is getting palpable....but not just there yet... Just see the red piling up
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...... Similar scenario with xlm... Also, these ema supports are not static...