₦airaland Forum

Second point is my principle of approaching stuff from a non-determininalistic viewpoint.

First the narrative here was that all crypt0 investors are conmen or yahoo boys then it moved on to similar narratives and more and more of such...
That has been my trigger point here on many occasions...

There are multiple downsides to crypt0 (just like on any asset) which is I'd be the first to admit. That's why I have never gone advising anyone to get into it.

The point I've always stressed on this thread is simple.. if I'm going to argue against an asset, I'd do it from a position of knowledge not ignorance or a pre-determined appeoach.... I believe in having a diversified portfolio... And just as I'd argue the pros and cons of say buying land is same way I'd do that for stocks, metals, crypt0 e.t.c... but I usually limit my discussion to stuff I know something about (and preferably have owned or traded).

For example, I'd always say that before I put a kobo into any asset/market, I want to see its performance over a period of time... preferably upto a decade or more...That holds true for anything I do and let's me view stuff without bias

Two things I'd like to note though I didn't want to go get into initially....

First is comparing cryt0 to margin trading (noted on some pages back) which I think is quite odd... Margin trading similar to derivative options are a seperate entity from crypt0. One can margin trade virtually any asset be it spot, stocks e.t.c. They existed long before the first bitc0in was mined and even if bitc0in goes into extinction, they'd still exist.
Would I be classed as a margin trader simply cos I decide to buy stocks or buy gold or virtually any other asset with seperate derivative options.

For those unaware, margin trading in simpler terms is equivalent to taking a loan with smaller collateral to buy larger amounts of an asset that you wouldn't have been able to abinitio based on certain set conditions... It can be done on virtually any traded item... In theory, even things as simple as buying tomatoes from the north can be margin traded with the right facility.

The pros and cons of margin trading is up in the air for those interested as it's not something I engage in. But then, the liquidity such brings to a market is unrivalled. That's simply because some larger players would not invest in a market if they don't have the option of hedging their positions. Same way, when not properly regulated, it can also be disastrous just like with the 2008 crash. The NSE for example has been trying to get derivatives put in place for a while to boost liquidity. If that occurs just like you have in other stock markets, would that make those invested in spot stocks derivative traders?

Summary, is that trading margin or other derivatives has nothing to do with crypt0... As a matter of fact, there are more derivative options in traditional markets than in the relatively new crypt0 space.

CodeBlooded:
You mean it would still come down.
Intend on buying doge and not Betc

Like I said earlier, it's difficult at the levels... it's really for you to decide.
If betece continues to rally, it'd pushup.. i.e the dip might have already occured... Personally, I think it rallies higher.
It's the issue with panic selling... Most times getting a re-entry can be tricky....

Below 0.33 yesterday with betece showing strength would have been a buy. Also, unlike other alyts, doge has not rallied as much but has relatively held well against betece...

I'm already in position with doge and would be selling into betece between 0.01-0.012.

OpenHeaven2019:
.

Careful with this, there's alot of stacked shorts already waiting for a squeeze... I'd rather take profits, buy dips than short (not like I trade futures)

I don't believe we're out of the woods yet and I don't think bitc0in will create a new ATH soon. But then, the complacency on this rally with majority second guessing it (because of previous crushed hopes) makes me think it'd rally higher than most expect.... It's in such conditions that bitc0in just loves to keep pushing up... Nd when everyone flips bullish, it dumps again.
Just like many erroneously longed the last selloff into capitulation, many too might erroneously short this bounce into a squeeze...
Let's see how it goes

OpenHeaven2019:
Please don’t get greedy. Market is still in a precarious state. Be careful out there.

Jedisco please check if Btc is printing a head and shoulder pattern?

I don't see an actionable one for now.....

There's a possible structure on the weekly (marked blue) with the left shoulder around 42k, but the head is too big for my liking....
Compared to the one it broke down from (marked orange) which was rather clean....

Ibime:
So what do we now boss?

I'm watching from the sideline with red eye. My $31k bid never clocked in.

What would you do in this position. Wait for breakout or retest or FOMO?

Hehe... This man... shared thoughts on betece

You just dey remind me what I did when bitc0in capitulated last March...when I finally bought at 5.8-6.2k then despite seeing it bounce at 4k and knowing it was a good place to bid... I kept moving my targets lower and pulling my bids on dips... When it started rallying, I started looking for same level I ran away from before..... At the end, vex come dey catch me cos I had fiat, witnessed the dip, but ended up buying at similar levels to those affected by it.. looking back now, it should have been an instant buy..
It was getting obvious you wouldn't buy below 40k

Buying such betece dips are difficult, but I like to see them from a risk/reward view.... At low 30k's, the risk of further downside is much lower.. Betece will respect structure and there's only so low it can dip moreso with negative funding and max fear in the market....
In current market conditions, I don't see as good an entry above 40k- lot's of resistance above and it's difficult to say where betece will get another selloff...
There's resistance around 45k, another at 50k and lastly 55k (if it gets there)... So personally, if it crosses 40k, my focus will be more on profit taking for me and compounding on dips..

Tkulthenoble:
The return is huge if we buy the dip see doge coming back with 6,000+%

Nope... Very unlikely at it's current market cap

jedisco:
On betece.....

Throughout this selloff, it's held the 21ema on the 4gr chart (1st pic) as resistance....continuously rejecting off it... Getting above and flipping this would be key for any further upside.... Currently sits at 36.9k which is close to the previous high of 38k

On the daily chart, yesterday's close lost the daily support of 36.7k... not a good sign...

Overall, 30k is still holding as support and the 37-38k level is resistance... Soon enough, one of them would give and let this drawn out horror end

jedisco:
On this...
First 4hrly close above the 4hr ema since 58k... Betece Now in the process of confirming it as support and also looking to make a higher high above the last high of 38k...
Hold this and me thinks the bottom (at least for now) is in
Interesting times....

Still on betece....
On the 4hr chart, it nicely confimed the 21ema as support... Secondly, it had it's first higher high sice 58k... I'm looking at a confirmation with a higher low before more upside.. I should have watched this all along

On the daily, (2nd chart)... Yesterday's candle was a good one... Claimed back the range... A dip into the 36.7-37.5k region (previous daily support) should serve as a good place for re-entry before further upside... To me, this would be the last place I'm willing to add spot betece for now. Above 40k, I don't see a good risk-reward for an entry

Third pic is the 4hr chart with potential dip zone.... Also worth keeping an eye on the 21 ema....

On the bear side, if betece fails to take 40k this rally and starts dipping below 34k, then I'd say there's a high chance it nukes 30k... I wouldn't be bidding low if it occurs...

On alyts, good chance they revisit the lower levels in the coming weeks... But for now, as far as betece continues to hold, worth playing them level by level

CodeBlooded:
What do you suggest I do now ?

Difficult to say cos this can very well be an exit pump..... I'd let the market cool down nd get into entries on betece dips

OpenHeaven2019:
If you had any doubt that the last dip was orchestrated, the images below should put them to rest.

Hehe... It's same cycle that keeps recurring

Whales sell into euphoria for a while (this time at 60k)>> afterwards, the FUD mill goes on and all the bad news starts reeling out>>they then start market selling causing a dip, at first>>folks are buying and longing the dip but with persistent selling, they cause a capitulation cascade of leveraged traders to fill their resting bids below>>of course there'd be a bounce and not all their bids are filled>>they sacrifice some betece and market sell into the bounce and thesame time adding more FUD (remember the new china release 2 days ago), this time, new folks capitulate and sell their bags at a loss into support>>>When they're done buying, they increase the volume on the positive news>>>Folks who recently sold at a loss will then FOMO into the pump...

People are saying its Elon musk that caused the pump... Not necessarily... Those who caused it where the whales who were buying 30k past few days... Now, retail is pumping the news.... Don't be surprised there's more good news over the next few days of what institutions bought at 30k causing further FOMO

CodeBlooded:
Wow
Made the biggest wrong decision in trading yesterday. Sold off my doge at 0.25 thinking I’d find a spot to re enter but I seems to have missed it totally. I was already losing before I sold off. Now watching doge pump without me having any even when I was already in minus before. It hurts like hell.

Apologies.... Just learn from it....

During yesterday's drop was about the worst time to sell......
If you're going to close positions to buy lower, then be sure of levels before pulling the trigger.... Cos most times, once stuff starts nuking and you panic sell, you end up selling the bottom...
Most folks who sold yesterday would end up buying higher.

OpenHeaven2019:
Biggest lesson is to take profits. Leave moon boys, be smart and take profits.

The last few days will come again.

Imagine people who got OGN at $0.4 watch it go to $10 and refuse to sell. The dip took it back to sub $1 and they regretted not selling.

Don’t be that guy. Sell and take profits.

Selling at loss is a crime, not taking profits is a bigger crime.

Up only is a myth!

Hehe... Nice one...

In summary, it's best to take profits on the way up...so one can have firepower to bid red days

jedisco:
Who else has noticed a significant uptick in USDC and Tether printing since this selloff... Especially USDC? I'm talking of 10-100's of millions..
Though a hard metric to use, but it reminds me of the selloff at 12k

It can be a sign of new money (likely institutional) flowing into the market....
I'd look later to see if the number of wallets holding large sums of betece has been on an increase....

One thing to note is that when large traders buy, they may market buy causing an uptick or immediate pump which folks fomo into to lift prices higher...
Whereas, when institutions buy, it's usually via resting bids which can take days to fill... They wouldn't chase prices. So if it rallies, they wait for it to come back down... That's something to note...e.g like when Tesla nd the rest bought earlier this year, the only notable thing was just that 30k didn't break despite dips to 28k... It was later on after price had lifted and it was announced, that it became obvious that some folks were buying at that level.

The question now is are they buying now or are they waiting for lower prices to ladder in bids

On this, seems 30k was bid heavily..... The printing press was in overdrive

I was looking at the usdc and usdt market cap charts on coinmarketcap (attached)... Though its a lagging one (hence its not a smooth curve)... But almost 10 billion usd was added to the market over these past few days... Not including busd and Tusd which also saw some uptick....

I still believe there's a non-negligible chance that in the future, price may come to dip briefly below 30k to clear all liquidity there... Eitherway, I don't think that happens soon.

jedisco:
Good pm my people... At times like this, if you've not planned ahead, its good to avoid making panicky decisions. Take a deep breath, switch off alerts, get on with life and revisit issues in 1-2 days..

Stay safe out there friends

This didn't age badly... It's always darkest before daybreak....
It's worth remembering lessons learnt on this selloff cos it'd occur again and again in future... Always remember... this market flows in cycles.....

jedisco:
Some ray of hope...
Have you ever noticed during this rin that anyday all alyts sre in green and have done significant percentages, buying then is usually a wrong time irrespective of technicals as 2-4 days down the line, there'd be some retrace...

It's usually that way to in bear markets... In bear markets to... A week or two of proper red is usually followed by good green.. What I do then is to buy every week or 2 weeks.. once I see betece is holding support, I target alyts that have held against betece (but are well down in usdt and at support) and buy... Usually, I'm in profit the next week...

I'm not saying this to advise folks to jump into alyts with such uncertainty, but for those stuck, this might also not be a hood time to panic sell...

For those with sole intent on buying alyts eitherway, I'd advise to stick to majors... Most are around significant support...
Eith- 1850, 1500
Ada- 1
LTC- 120-100
Bnb- 200
Xrp- 0.6-0.7
Alyts can dip much lower than we think, but there's only so far they can dip...esp majors...

Out of curiosity... Did anyone snipe some of these entries?
Was a difficult one at the time... But yes, if you bought the dip, you deserve the pump...

P.s... stuff is still in range... Not expecting most coins to start creating ATH as yet.... Difficult to say how far up they'd rally, but as always, a good number who panic sold into major support would fomo in at higher prices to push stuff up...... The daily- weekly candles should serve as a good guide on when to take profits

Same Goldman Sachs in 2021 are soon to publish an article arguing for and actually classing crypt0 as a new asset class... (Reminds me a bit of myself)

I'd post some snapshots here but should be a good read for those interested in the workings of the space....

Two things to note from the snapshots are:
1. 90% of all bitc0in that would ever exist has already been issued... Out of this, a small but significant percentage is lost.
2. The supply of bitc0in is cut in half every 4 years...
In essence, it's deflationary...as demand grows, supply reduces.


In summary, I'd argue against the consistent back and forth here regarding crypt0... At this stage of its existence, one of two things can either be true about crypt0 viz-
1. It turns out to be the greatest ponzi scheme known to man- one that lasted over a decade, managed to hoodwink lots of both regular folks and institutions in different continents, one that made Governments enact rules governing its trade and taxation (after being unable to ban it) and various central banks look into further utilisation... Would be one hell of a scheme..

2. That in some way still brewing but not as clear to us now, it'd play a huge role in shaping finance and transacting in future years just like the internet did with communication....

It's obvious what side of the bet I've taken... Would be a good one to watch how it pans out

Still on crypt0....

I note a number of arguments have been partly put against it here. This snapshot from an article by Goldman Sachs in 2020 summaries most of the arguments put forward against crypt0....and arguing against it being an asset class.

stevemims:
So, one thing we can't take away from Emma and other active members here- their analyses and ideas based on practical experiences are top-notch. That said, I agree with Lazyyouth on being guided with how we paint this Crypt0 narrative, I.e., by just putting money and wait for it to rise without understanding the intricacies that shape the market. However, this investment through blockchain hasn't been unpacked enough. Tobex and Jedisco/jidesco, would it be okay to quote you on a dead thread for more info? Thanks.

You could quote me here, on the crypt0 thread or any thread of your choosing....

But if it's on the economics around crypt0, personal research will usually answer most of your questions....

Lazyyouth4u:
I really enjoy reading your analysis of various asset classes and appreciate how passionate you are about bitc0ins. It shows that you are really invested in it and your emotions are normal for any true investor in an asset class that is going through challenging times that every asset class experiences. Unlike some people that throw around millions of dollars they gained but no in-depth knowledge of the asset class

But I think you are taking it too personally. Let people say whatever they want to say. It’s normal for people to be skeptical of asset classes that they do not understand. But please don’t stop the analysis that you drop every now and then. Some of us learn about the asset class from your posts

Gracias... Good to know people pick up stuff from posts given I largely stay off crypt0 discussions here..I will still post thoughts from time to time.... It's good having healthy discussions around different assets.

Perhaps, I was a bit emotional with some of my responses.. Was a red but healthy week in crypt0 and it was annoying seeing folks who have been waiting on the sidelines to say I told you so (rather ignorantly)... Think I was triggered and went on a rant.... Well weekend is over... New week, new focus....

jedisco:
On betece.....

Throughout this selloff, it's held the 21ema on the 4gr chart (1st pic) as resistance....continuously rejecting off it... Getting above and flipping this would be key for any further upside.... Currently sits at 36.9k which is close to the previous high of 38k

On the daily chart, yesterday's close lost the daily support of 36.7k... not a good sign...

Overall, 30k is still holding as support and the 37-38k level is resistance... Soon enough, one of them would give and let this drawn out horror end

On this...
First 4hrly close above the 4hr ema since 58k... Betece Now in the process of confirming it as support and also looking to make a higher high above the last high of 38k...
Hold this and me thinks the bottom (at least for now) is in
Interesting times....

mike8804:
I never said a coin should be stay away from, I meant a meme coin like Shiba without any use case and having over 3b as market cap can never make you a millionaire just by investing $10. Market cap doesn't determine your choice of coin, market cap only gives you a reasonable profit projection. E.g I want to buy ethereum when the market cap is $300b, for me to double my investment as a holder then the cap has to reach $600b. $300b extra investment to a project no be beans oo even Nigeria no get that kind money. That's why most people trade BTW fluctuations in the market. With good TA skills like @jedisco you can double your money without necessary waiting for x2 of market cap.

My brother it goes both ways oo... E be like say shit coyns never do you something...
Have you ever asked yourself why most people who've been long in this market and trading volume stick mainly to majors? Even if your portfolio is small, to grow it, you have to think like those with larger portfolio...

Like I always say, making money in crypt0 is easy... keeping it is the hard part.

On betece.....

Throughout this selloff, it's held the 21ema on the 4gr chart (1st pic) as resistance....continuously rejecting off it... Getting above and flipping this would be key for any further upside.... Currently sits at 36.9k which is close to the previous high of 38k

On the daily chart, yesterday's close lost the daily support of 36.7k... not a good sign...

Overall, 30k is still holding as support and the 37-38k level is resistance... Soon enough, one of them would give and let this drawn out horror end

DieRich5:
yeah, saw it on Twitter

Anyone can write anything on twitter... Tesla bought their bitc0in at low 30k and sold 10% or so around 50-60k.... A Google search should confirm this

DieRich5:
fake news everywhere

Source?...

BTW, there are those in this for the long haul and not interested in every weekly move... Interestingly, those are the people who win big in this game...

You could watch the video below and see someone explaining what bitc0in would be and begging people to buy it for a few dollars 8 years back... I'm sure some would have been more interested in whether it was 1.8 or dipped 1.t dolls then... Today all that doesn't matter...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw29h7LhEuE

My point is folks like Tesla bought cos they believe in the Tech nd know that in future, it wouldn't matter whether he bought for 20k or 40k

Stumbled upon this... It's not as bad as it looks....
Being in the fastest growing asset class comes with some price

olushollys:
I'm on BCH and TFuel now.
Bought BCH @790 now burning down to 547
TFuel @ 0.2997 but still on 0.2454
I have entered and sold several coins and lost much

Hmm.. not so much a drawback considering current market conditions.... Things should balance soon...

DieRich5:
I was wrong, na 43k

Where are you getting this information from? Teslas entry was in the low 30k... Bitc0in pumped from 33 to 38k after the news broke out...

DieRich5:
Update
Tesla buy betec @58 now losing 1 billions

Teslas entry was in the low 30k

On ada...

jedisco:
I've come to see that if you play the bull cycle between majors well, one can navigate this market for most of the bullrun avoiding significant dips in ones portfolio even when betece pullsback

Seeing eith double in the last 2 weeks and not having a good slice wasn't nice... Moreso given eith used to be my benchmark...

I used to play the link/eith chart before, and of recent, it's been the ada/eith...
Caught most of the upside move of ada against eith early this year but not the reverse... Good thing is that I stacked ada ( smarter move would have been to be in eith instead that period)...It's quite easy to get distracted in this market...

Now I'm back to majors... Ada is at weekly resistance against eith again.... If it flips the 0.06 level, then good chance it'd continue its rally to 0.08 and 0.1... Good thing is that it might just have created a higher low

Who else remembers this...
On the ada/betece chart (1st pic), Two important weekly levels are labelled 1 (0.3) and 2 (0.37
While I had thought it'd selloff to 0.3, which was the previous high, it seems to be flipping the 0.37 level...

Whats more interesting is ada/eith (2nd pic) I mentioned before... It's now completely flipped the 0.6 weekly level even with this selloff which is quite impressive. All that's left is a bounce.... Funny thing is that I thought eith held up better until I looked at the charts... I'd be keeping an eye on this

Flipping levels on both eith and betece is bullish.
Even in the midst of chaos, there seems to be some pattern...

NisforNicky:
hi jedisco

I've been following your comments and analysis for some time.
thank you for all the insight you bring here for free!

I have a question pls.

what strong alts can I get this dip period, with the view of hodling for up to 3years?
I may also exchange them in future for beetcee or eith if they perform very well.
I am hoping to get those whose prices are less than $1 for now, since my capital is small

1. 3 years?... Not advisable to trade alyts that way... Except bitc0in.... The market flows in waves, maximizing those moves saves you stress

2. Why are you keen on those less than $1... That's the mistake most new folks make that sees them chasing micros... What's important is your ROI and sustainability of investment not actually the cost of the coyn... Yeah, micros with minimal value tend to be more volatile in both directions, and most times, if not timed well, you're left with nothing.


As a new person in this space, it may be difficult juggling between coyns. It might be better to start with splitting your portfolio accordingly...

Allocating your portfolio depends on the time of the market cycle you're buying. Betece, Eith, Ada, xrp and one of the newer coyns likt (aave, dot, ksm or uni)... would top my list

olushollys:
Na waooo, for una crypto ooo. When i decided to join only ti make some little profits and lose it with over 70% of the original capital. God dey

What coyn did you buy?...and at what price?

LauraClasikVibe:
You know what you doing, the advise is for those that have used their life savings, rent or collected loan or trading for other people, sh!t coin chasers and airdrops specialist. It's good most people are experiencing this so that they know what Crypt0 is all about.

Besides diversification is key, be invested in Money Mutual fund
Fixed Income Fund
FG savings bond
T-bills
Stock Market this way their risk is reduced but first, they need to determine their risk appetite.

I agree... It's good to have a diversified investment portfolio.... That way, one can cycle profits across investment options