₦airaland Forum

My view on the market;

Eith: broke out of the cup and handle pattern at 4k... A macro retest of 4k in the coming weeks is a no brainer

Dot: been consolidating for weeks..Finally broke out did my buys on this below 30usd. With all the rave about parachain launch one could see this coming... Lets see how far it rallies.... Hopefully it pulls a sol. Kusama is unsurprisingly following dot as they're both linked
Link also look to have started consolidating in a rage similar to what dot did.... I wouldn't want to buy link above 30usd for this macro rally.

Sol: After the initial mega rally, its startted the second one... As explained in the '10 things learned post' such moves can be upto a 2x with coyns of its market cap... Looking at 300-400 on it... Unfortunately, I'm not as well exposed to it as I'd have liked... A further dip to low 200 and I'd be adding up.

Xrp: with every other major breaking out of previous range... It's only expected that it should move... SEC stuff seems to be suppressing this..

Lots of coyns with blockchains are doing well... Terra, avax, sol, ....

Bitc0in.... Stuck in the middle of no where... Still holding out for a dip to deploy my final fiat bags of this macro rally.... But then, the longer it holds 60k, the less likely that is... Eitherway, should resolve within a week or two

EarlyCareer:
Keep up the great work, Jedisco. Many newbies will thank you for this in the near future.

Me,...been away for a while. My focus is on accumulating mostly eith, and some matic long term. 2022 may be a favourable year for crypto.

Hopefully.

Eith is a no brainer... It'd outperform over 95% of alyt coyns and perhaps even bitc0in in the long-term. It's amazing how folks are largely underexposed to it incl yours truly....
Most of the well performing alyt coyns e.g. aave, matic are built on eith. Eith is really changing the landscape of crypt0 trading... Its a pity the huge fees of platforms built directly on it limit its use... But then, those huge fees are cos strong money prefers eith... The amount of eith burnt daily in fees is staggering

Matic is built on eith and should outperform it at certain points of the market but they're pretty much linked....

Daemo111:
I remember @Jedisco said when ADA moves after a beer market, it's a sign that the market is on bullish mode. All my coin/tokens are coming back to life, some in profit already and we just gtn started. HODL.

Hmmm....

Samken2:
What is the best digital urrency platform best for beginners

By platform do you mean centralised exchanges?
By that, there is no best, it all depends on the one which suits you best with a good security track record.

Some folks also keep their coyns in private wallets and use decentralised exchanges when needed

ActivistSlimfeez:
Can we connect man, really have some stuff to ask you, I will be pleased if you can chat me via WhatsApp on zero eight zero 69150847

Generally, I prefer to keep discussions on NL for privacy reasons

ActivistSlimfeez:
I wish we should create a WhatsApp group for a recent update, as time goes on, we can now migrate to Telegram, let us come together to achieve this financial freedoms.

There should be lots of WhatsApp nd TG crypt0 groups already.
The reason I like this on NL is that it's open and anyone can vet what's being posted while maintaining their privacy. I generally use WhatsApp for personal communication and fo my information finding on website fora

@Gabrielyulaw

I've used a number of apps on occasion but I'm not sure how many aside binaz has the p2p option for Nigeria.

Bundle is sleek though the fees are a bit higher and security doesn't serm as robust...
Someone has mentioned pasxful...

Perhaps, you should ask on the other thread- some folks seems to have been told how to go about their verification issues

2ubaba:
Hello Jedisco please look into $Link I want to take a position. Or suggest a trade that will have a good run weekly. Also BTT is looking good as well.

Link forms part of my portfolio and I believe under 30 usd is a hood place to accumulate for the long-term. Link hasn't performed as well of late so it's worth holding other coyns aside it.
I don't trade weekly and seriously speaking have no idea on a coyn that gives sich return.
As a matter of fact, most new folks who approach crypt0 looking for daily or weekly returns get rekt....
On btt, most micros are moving... Wouldn't be surprised if it does

Sandor2:
Shiba fantom is the next level meme coin . Guys get in early

Careful so you don't get rug pulled... It's always that way after a meme coyn pumps different random coyns turn up that end up wrecking folks

astalover13:
Wow, I didn't even know that ordinary people could actually make money by trading crypt0currency. I mean, I tried to do that, but it was too complicated. It's still pretty interesting for me, but I know that I'd never try it again. My maximum is buying NFTs, and I just bought one from myimpactpower. I think it's easier to just buy a token and wait for it to grow over time, but trading requires you to check the exchange rates every day, and you need to analyze when it's the best time to sell or buy something.

Alot of people including yours truly do struggle with the market volatility... But if you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, one begins to see clear actionable trends.
Day trading is tricky... I don't do it as its too emotional and takes my view off what truly matters....
But it's interesting you're buying nfts if you struggled eith regular coyns... How do you valuate your nfts

On majors.....

Good to see bnb follow eith a d go for its ATH... Bnb is one of my exchange toke9of choice. It usually respects structure and I expect itd consolidate around its ATH and possibly pullback to 500.

Dot on the other hand looks more bullish.... Currently at ATH... It's consolidated enough to breakout from this range... Would be glorious if it could pull a SOL


XRP.... At this moment seems to be the only lagging major... I know the uncertainty around the lawsuit has depressed prices.... But with other majors gunning for ATH, if the lawsuit goes its way, it should get to 2 dolls very quickly

jedisco:
Nope.... While I was waiting for a entry at a rerest, to coyn took off like a rocket
.
If it retraces to 0.4, I'd get a position which I'd hold unto for a while..

Thing to note is that most sport tokens are built on chz... And most have been bleeding for weeks... A chz rally might just awaken the dead

Took a position on this at 0.4... usually, I don't trade to catch the bottom but it does feel good to snipe the bottom/top from time to time...

Over the next 1-2 weeks, I'd look to get dome exposure to sport tokens... Currently looking at psg and juv..... Not decided yet.

Also got dome wrx at 1.4 which looks to have held

Lazyyouth4u:
Donald Trump, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Kanye West are/were not the most emotional intelligent people you will ever meet and are/were known to always lose control of their emotions but were/are not financial disasters.

Ordinary folks with all the financial education and the so called behavioral skills in the world will never be wealthy if they do not have opportunities. The world is a capitalistic jungle with limited opportunities. And most people will unfortunately not be wealthy. Just learn to live within your means and hope for the best.

It seems you think about wealth and money a little too much. You are a young man. Please learn to relax and enjoy life while you can. Life is too short to spend our short existence here thinking about being wealthy all the time. If you can feed and care for your family, you are already a winner. There are people that cannot even afford to put food on their families’ tables.

I align with some of your thoughts about money but I tend to me in-between both. Of course this is a niche thread and ome would expect to find those focused on financial matters...
That said, I've come across well to do folks who seem obsessed with making money just for the sole purpose of having an extra zero in their account or the adrenaline rush that comes with that. To them, making money is an art which they must continually fine-tune... Recently had emotional discussions with someone who's very frugal to the point of taking significant risks he could avoid which are affecting his health. At a stage, I had to ask him whats his purpose in life and what's the aim of his accumulated wealth

I take a more liberal approach to this... My main aim of investing is to be able to lead a 'relatively' comfortable life... By comfortable I mean some level above the basics such as a number of properties, being able to pursue a hobby (travelling e.t.c), grant my kids good education with something extra to push-start their lives, have some to spare for those around and retire early perhaps to the country side and enjoy life for what it's worth.....

Munamoqel:
stop narrowing the refinery operation to the sale of petrol only. The refinery in imo is currently selling Ago (blue gas) and hfo (5 million ) monthly. U choose the product u make .vitol want to be buying 20m litres of various product from dangote refinery .this include aviation fuels unlead fuel and other to supply their customer globally . Vitol sell over 80 m litres of product daily . (World biggest oil traders ) they buy globally from refinery
.the 20bn dollar dangote refinery is not made for Nigeria only .it target is the global markets that why it can blend several grade of crude not only bonny light. It has a 7m jetty that can export. Right now a ship is loading over 35mt tonnes of urea to Brazil. They paid 12 m USD for a single shipment . Dangote sell @ 290 to vitol oil trading 1bn litres per month @market price .vitol sell to NNPC @295 ( sole importer since 2015) NNPC sells to depots @146 and depot sell filling station @154 station sell to you at 165 and u enjoy you life .end of the year NNPC slam Faac accounts a 1 trillion naira loss or Nass make a appropriation in the budget for Bleep billion to pay for it .within concern dangote with una poor run country.

No need going back and forth over this. You have some peculiar info about the company but the general dynamics of things would soon play out...

The answer to your last statement is alot. Dangote has a symbiotic relationship with Nigeria. Let's not forget that alot of companies had to go under so the government could supply him with cheap dollars for his refinery. Let's also not forget that the government practically gave him a grant by buying some stake in the refinery at a prenium. Nigerians are very much in the right to have some expectations in return. His saving grace will be to use his leverage to push for an end in subsidy before his refinery comes alive. Theis he already seems to be doing.

@ibeme.... What's your take?

Tobex4realTobex234:
True. Just buy $VOO if you're a newbie in U.S stocks. You would be better of in 10 years. Guess what? $VOO also pays dividends.

If you also think about companies like Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Coinbaz, Netflix, Shopify. They are individual stocks with strong growth potential.

But I don't understand how someone who has no knowledge of the market is buying individual stocks to begin with. Even Warren Buffett has 80% of his allocation in $VOO.

The issue with the US stock market (and others alike) is that the current big hitters e.g tsla would continue to thrive but returns might not be as great. The real alpha came with finding those stocks early... E.g tesla in 2010... Or aapl in the early days of the iPhone.. In retrospect, the signs are usually clear but at the time, the fear is not to buy the losers e.g Myspace instead of Facebook or an experimental gimmick.

Coinbaz is interesting but it's growth is largely correlated with the crypt0 space. While I expect it to trend up with time, I wouldn't consider it a hedge on where to cycle crypt0 profits as it'd likely struggle in a bear market except they expand their offerings into other things like remittance which they seem to be doing.

I'd look into $VOO and see what it's about. At the moment, I'm well tilted towards Crypt0 as I expect stuff to start moving soon... When time to take profits come, options will include locking profits into stable coyns and staking these... Another to me would be metals as xag and xau do look primed... Another would be stocks and the NSE does looks to be on the cusp... Also, it might be a hedge interns of a US market correction.... Ultimately, I'd return home when the time comes.

Munamoqel:
dangote no need subsides .he will.sell to depots owners (52 of them )or NNPC at market determine price and they inreturn supply Nigerians as a loss .right now no physical cash subsidies is been paid but a crude oil swap deal of crude to white products of same value .vitol is biggest oil.supplier in the world is already having a supply contractor 20 m litres daily from dangote refinery. Dangote refinery projects have already earn 150m usd this year from export of 12 ships of fertilzer to Brazil and usa via dangote jetty in the refinery .

Dangote himself would prefer subsidy is removed but are Nigerians ready. If subsidy is still in place, irrespective of if Dangote sells to depots or NNPC, the average Nigerian would see the government allocating a sum for petrol subsidy as paying money to Dangote...

Personally, I believe that's why the refinery has stalled. Dangote is known to finish his projects in good time just like the fertiliser plant. It's interesting why the fertiliser plant kicked up first and has been running for months yet the refinery section keeps being pushed back. Chances are he's told the government he cannot operate without the outright removal of subsidy... Another evidence is the fact that allocation for subsidy in next years budget runs till middle of the year when his refinery should begin....

I've heard alot about the swap stuff... But if it's only crude swaps, how come trillions are being budgeted for subsidy? Where does the money go

Hamachi:
As a SME without large capital for advertising, we just have to resort to using this method.

That's not how to grow your brand.. That's where lots of Nigeria online creators struggle- they're always looking to clickbait. The crypt0 space is a rapidly expanding one with lots of new entrants.
There are lots of crypt0 YouTube channel who've grown to hundreds of thousands of subscribers by simply delivering the right content. Some charge in thousands of dollars for tutorials that can be found online.... If you know what you're doing in crypt0, chances are that folks would seek you out


My point is this, if you really believe in the content you are delivering, either do some of that openly so people can see or pay for an add on nairaland.. Joining a telegram group is free. A weeks worth of NL ad should do more to your platform by way of getting the right folks in than spamming multiple threads.

einsteine:
Good companies on the NSE have been having depressed valuations. It is a long term inefficiency.

That's the worry of many. Good number know that some NSE coys are largely undervalued... But folks aren't rushing in cos the fear of corrupt practices eroding any market fundamentals

I listened to meffy not too long ago talking about Dangote refinery and how he'd float the naira once the refinery begin operations...

While the refinery will fo alot, if not anything by jobs alone, he forgets that Dangote has loans in usd to pay off...

It's interesting how the whole monetary policy of a nation is based on one mans personal business... No doubt, Dangote would milk that refinery for every penny.. The start date has been pushed back several times only for the government to buy up a stake at an exorbitant premium.... Dangote would make sure he's sorted all his other forex needs before the refinery kick starts..


One good thing is that Dangote is likely to insist on removal of petrol subsidy before the refinery begins production... Paying trillions to him in the name of subsidy would be too much bad press for him- something he tends to avoid. Funny enough, a good number of Nigerians wouldn't mind paying higher for petrol as far as Dangote isn't receiving subsidies

emmanuelewumi:
Investors should invest in their financial education. I thank God for some of the older people I met between 2004 and 2009, who advised me to diversify my loot from the stock market.

I was a margin trader with FBN Quest Securities and UBA Stockbroker between 2002 and 2009, the market was good to me. I was using leverage of between 150% to 200% of my capital. I thought I was a genius, until an elderly man explained the importance of diversification and using yield from the assets for the basis of my investments.

This made me to sell 60% of my stocks and invested in real estate and money market instruments.

It is always better to remove the performance of the market between 2006 to 2008 in any serious analysis, there were no fundamentals to explain the sporadic rise.

Government policies also affects Investments, the policy of Obasanjo had a multiplier effects on our economy. Debts were liquidated and foreign direct and portfolio investors came into the country.

Yar Adua, reversed some of the policies and it affected the economy. The sale of 51% of the refineries to Dangote and Otedola consortium for $1 billion was courtesy of Oshiomhole led NLC pressure on government. In the recent financial of the Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries both did not generate a Kobo but workers earned billions of Naira as salaries and loss after tax of about N500 billion was declared.

Crude oil sold at an All Time price of about $100 during the tenure of GEJ but was our reserves was depleted and the country went back into debt.

Buhari came on board a former minister of Petroleum in the late 70s, former Chief of Army staff, retired General and former President. All things being equal with the right entrepreneurial mindset such a person ought to be a billionaire without stealing public funds, but he was just there.

Without having politicians and leaders that are problem solvers and wealth creators, nothing good can happen in the country, except for those who have decided to take their destinies in their own hands through making the right Investments and financial plans

What you said is fact... personally I avoid leverage moreso in a volatile market... It's always sensible to lock-in funds from a volatile market into a less volatile one until the mania dies down...

To me, 2006-2008 is the core of the analysis...its the mania phase a bullrun...where most money is made and lost... Funny enough, it's that mania that drives folks to volatile assets like crpt0. Unfortunately, it's at the manic phase that people rush in with their money..... If the NSE goes on another run like 06-08, I'd sure be a beneficiary.

OBJ did alot for the economy of this nation. He got the right heads in place. The reversal of the sale of refineries was one place where Yaradua shouldn't have listened to the populace... NNPC if well run should be listed on the NSE with valuation in billions of dollars... Yet today, it's a waste pipe.
FDI today is at it's lowest. Foreign portfolio investors who rushed into the Nigerian market during the last 6-10 years were dealt a heavy blow... It's now I understand why most were rushing to leave after the initial set of devaluation... Perhaps they saw something we didn't

ositadima1:
The statement above is not completely correct.

The USA stock market unlike NSE has over 20,000 stocks (NSE has less than 200 listed stocks ). In there u can find all sorts, from badly performing to well performing stocks.

The common advice is to invest in stock indexes, like d ones that mirror S&P 500, NASDAC, dow jones etc. Trading or investing in individual stocks is risky same as in NSE, and u are most likely to loose ur money, except you have skills and knowledge.

Like I had mentioned, the overwhelming majority of growth in the US stock markets are due to a handful of companies.... Take away googl, aapl, amazn tesl and a few others from the US markets and you're left with a poor performing market... But then, they have those trillion dollar coys which can carry the market... Just imagine what a coy of $500 b listed on the NSE will do to the market... Moreso, they've been able to squeeze funds from other jurisdictions into their market...

Like you said above, I've always been a preacher of the fact that very few people do outperform the market in which their asset trades. That's why when I want to invest in an asset class, I look at the strength of the underlying market first...

9% pa isn't bad esp when componded.... If as strong as the s&p is, the annualised return is 9%, how much more our own.

Just got some wrx.. looking at it to be a longer-term hold.. it's been consolidating between 1 and 1.4 for some weeks now... If it dips closer to 1, I'd add up

It's a kind of coyn that moves overnight... It was one of the late movers in may... So it may still have some consolidating to do... Either way, I'm locked in

DieRich5:
.4 I'll buy at dat area also
CHZ been down.............yeah CHZ is the father of sports tokens, I'll be looking at PSG for now

With PSG, I want it to have a weekly green candle first... From current valuations, an x3 is on the cards

donprosper6:
Pls Which coin is likely to turn $1k to 30k in two months? It’s bullish season
I want to buy I need like 3…
Lol it might sound impossible but y’all gurus know a coin that have the Potential.
I’m waiting for a reply pls

You'd end up losing your 1k if you're not careful

Happiness09:
It needs to close above 63,000 today, this is the 3rd week since it's been trying. If it fails by the end of today, we might see 56,000 next week and if Daily closes below 56,000, it's game over.

I'm looking at it differently... I'm not really bothered with specific numbers now as bitc0in will usually do what it wants. One area I'd be watching on a pullback would be the weekly support as I expect buyers to step in there

On the marco scale, the market would still be in a technical uptrend even if it dips to 44k.... The coin pumped from 40k to 67k in less than a month... There should be some healthy consolidation

Reeefe:
Divine down to 0.37 show we load more?

Hehe... questions people ask..

emmanuelewumi:
At an All Time High All Share Index of over 66,000 in 2008 at a PE ratio of over 40 and dividend yield of less than 2%, it is obvious to the informed that the market was gross over valued.

Market capitalisation moved from N600 billion in 2002 to almost N10 Trillion in 2008, how is that possible...

All Share Index moved from 8111 in 2000 to 66,000 in 2008, how possible.

The faster the rise, the deadly the fall and the longer it takes to recover.

Instead of looking at 2008.

Can we look at the growth from 2000 to 2021, where the All Share Index moved from 8111 to 41,000 and market capitalisation moved from less than N600 billion to over N20 Trillion.

Or look at the All Share Index from when it was introduced on January 1st 1984 at 100 to the present 41,000

Of course the market is higher valued today than it was in 1984 or 2000. If it wasn't, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Truly, the 2008 peak was a classic bubble. The first so far in the NSE.. I wouldn't really blame retail money caught at the top that's just normal human nature... Folks would always be bullish at the top... The concern is that the market has continued to punish them for over 10 years... The market has failed to beat inflation (and devaluation in our case) which are critical indices
For comparison, the US stock market has historically beat inflation and so it always made more sense for their citizens to invest in it than keep money in the bank.

Around 2008, there was a worldwide market crash... But then, most other markets put in new highs in less than a decade... Same also with the covid crash. The difference was that even at the lows the covid crash, while certain markets traded far higher than their 2009 lows, the NSE was pushed back to its 2009 lows... Not good..

Everyone invests to make money and enjoy it in their lifetime. The life expectancy in Nigeria is less than 70... 14 years is alot of time to wait...

All said, 2 places I'd spare the NSE are these;

1. The NSE is largely linked to the Nigerian economy which has been largely stagnant over the last decade..


2. Looking at the historic ASI attached, it does seem set to break past this 42000-44000 region which it has struggled with over the past decade. This should see it set on another rally... I'd keep this in mind and revisit in the coming months.... If the last 10 years was a bear market, then hopefully, the bull market should be good... Afterall, some of the money the CBN is printing ought to find its way there

emmanuelewumi:
Market capitalisation is nothing, the bank with the highest market capitalisation might not be the highest in terms of profitability, best in terms of efficiency, the best in terms of return on equity, return on asset and growth rate. The most important things to look at at the intrinsic value of the business, the enterprise value of the business.

If anybody wants to get a 5% equity in any of the big banks in Nigeria there is no way their market capitalisation will not increase by a minimum of 80%.

Zenith Bank at N25, Jim Ovia will not sell his over 2.5 billion units for N70 billion Lai Lai doubt if he would sell for N100 billion which is about N40 per share. The annual dividend of over N7 billion is okay for him.

According to market capitalisation, Zenith Bank is about N800 billion. But the share holders fund alone is over N1 Trillion, deposits is over N4 Trillion and profit after tax is over N200 million.

When the market is low, you can value my property as N100 million. If the property owner is getting an annual rental income of N20 million from the property he is less concerned about whatever valuation ascribed to his Investment property.

When investors know the difference between price and value and understand the valuation of an asset, Investment, Busineses, venture they will be able to make profit through their understanding of the market Dynamics, behavioural finance and Investment psychology

You misunderstand me on certain things...

When looking at a markets, nothing gives a better picture of performance as the market cap over time (by time I mean years-decades)....This is because whatever fundamentals are at play in the individual participants of a market should ultimately affect price over time.
Now moving to individual participants of a market, a whole lot of indicators some of which you mentioned come into play of which the market cap is also among. I don't mean big market cap=huge product. But then, even in the NSE, there's a reason why the so called FUGAZ happen to have the highest market cap. 90% of growth over any timeframe in the US stock market are always accounted for by a handful of companies...... I can go on and on.... If I was to invest in the NSE today, except I have some good underlying info, I'd still be limited to a few big hitters.... Yes I want to be the one who bought Amazon, Apple or even our own Okumu when they were largely undervalued. But I wouldn't devote my whole portfolio to stuff I hope would be the next big thing that ends up being Myspace or Unity bank


If a sensible high net worth person wants to buy 5% in a listed coy, it'd surprise you to know that in that period the price of shares might remain stagnant or even fall not until the very end of their buying. When such folks buy, they do so slowly over a long period of time usually when the market is ranging. Sometimes, they'd even sell some of their buys to maintain price within a given range. I've seen this happen over and over again... The reason why you might see a huge uptick when there little buys on the NSE largely boils down to liquidity...

The example you gave with Zenith is a good one... If a coy has strong fundamentals for a long time that has not reflected in price, then it's either the market is trading at a mark down (which isn't bad) and prices would eventually catch-up or it's just an inefficient market where large coys can do as they please.... I wonder which one the NSE is.

Like I said, every market has period of markups, markdowns and periods where the market finds its true level.
Understanding how that market sentiment operates was the reason why for example I bought Bitc0in in May at 30k usd everyone was screaming how it's going to zero. Of course, I'd do the opposite when it gets to the other end.... Now my worry with the NSE is this: since 2008, it seems to have continually been in a downtrend... When will the markup come?

Finally.... Doge.....
It's day will come... That day seems close

4. Wrx....

An exchange token linked to binaz... With a number of micros putting in straight green candles, I scanned around and came upon chz and this... Chz has since pop'd... This on the other hand is shaping up to have 5 tiny green weekly candle... Mostly, that's followed by a fat green one.... Either way, it's been consolidating at this range for a while... Getting in here ain't a bad bet for the long-term

3. Axs....

One of the meta verse linked coyns that failed to pump eith others.... A flip of 140 should bring a rally...

Its worth noting that this coyn was trading for 2 dolls few weeks back.. so I wonder how much strength it still has