₦airaland Forum

Response01:
One of the few real crypto guru is back.

Now I can sit back and enjoy good content

Oya o, make we hear from your mouth about this market brother.

Gracias but def wouldn't consider myself a guru in this space...

Been in fewer trades of late as I've largely been on oda stuff

Got some crv at 3.5.
Also sold my matic earlier at 2.4 and compounded by buying back at 1.8

Other coyns I had in mind and bullish on are Avax and Luna but they didn't dip into by buy zone (below 60 and 40 respectively). Hence, I let my stash ride

Dot dipped into my buy zone (below 30), but I didn't like the way it failed to rally andcapitulated after breaking ATH, hence I stayed away.

Another coyn I added a small position to was harmony-one at 0.18...

The potential trade I'm looking at now is to sell some of my Luna at any 120 (depending on how it behaves at that region) so I could compound lower. I'm bullish on Luna cos of the way it's UST synthetic stable coyn which has been on a tear of recent. Another is to offload some of my one at 0.27-0.3...for same purpose of compounding.

An important thing has been to earn interest on my passive holdings.

On Bitc0in, the initiall selloff was to 42k and over the past year, anytime it sells off, it goes back after a while to take out the initial low. Except this time is different, I'd expect 42k to be revisited.

luvlyoracle:
Baba jedisco long time
I have missed your analysis.
Hope u good

Gracias!
Market has been slow with betece doing its think... Thankfully, part of my portfolio has held up well

emmanuelewumi:
Inflation and devaluation are taken into consideration when determining the coupons for fixed income Investments

I'm not looking at things from a personal pov. For an individual with free cash looking to invest, it could represent an excellent opportunity. Also, irrespective of what inflation that amounts from it, such an individual will feel it less as they'd be the first recipients of new money.

My post is about what effects such rates have on the economy not whether it's a good individual investment or not

emmanuelewumi:
Successful Investors don't do blame games, don't wail , but move on and are on the lookout for the next opportunities.


There will be losses and gains, but generally the gains are more than the losses, so regrets are not in their dictionary.

This is not about wailing or making excuses as I didn't do any of that. It's also not about being a successful investor. I'm simply pointing out the long-term effects of a macroeconomic decision. I can well go on and purchase the bond but wouldn't turn a blind eye to obvious facts cos it suits me
I did this specifically cos on this thread, folks like to climb on a high horse and see the average Nigerian as 'lazy'. I remember when an 'investor' on this thread who owned a BDC was bloating how he made millions weekly by simply round-tripping the dollar, that same person still turned around to blame smugglers for the devaluation of the naira. I had to take out time to let him know he's worse.

Another is the high TB rates that were in play years back
Did we on this thread benefit from it? Yes
Was it of any benefit to the nation? No
Did such rates play a role in the subsequent devaluation of the naira? Yes
Did hapless Nigerians have to bear the brunt of inflation due to a poor decision by their CBN? Yes

ositadima1:
Maybe, or maybe not. If and only if the bond revenue is used for what it was mapped out to be used for. I remember seeing on the DMO website what projects the collected moneys would be used for.

For example,what the roads that will be built will return in value creation, if done well should exceede the coupon payouts.

My issue is why the government still retains such high bond rates even when it's obvious they'd still be oversubscribed at much lower rates. It doesn't just add up. Imagine lending money from your bank and also asking them to increase the lending rate because you're feeling generous.

Even if the overall value that comes from such projects well exceeds the payout, we know that would not accure to the government directly to facilitate payouts. Every country prints money- this has become more obvious with COVID. How they use such money is what differentiates sensible nations from others.

I have reattached a snapshot of 10yr bond rates of different nations. Some are in the negative (i.e folks pay to hold bonds), some well in the positive. Irrespective of whether it's a chicken or egg scenario, one thing is clear- the performance of the national currencies with the highest paying bonds tend to be abysmal... The profits may look good on the surface, but the maths will always add up.

In summary, while we reap the fruits DMO bonds at rates which we know are detrimental to the economy given that the interest is practically new money printed out of thin air, let's not come back and blame the poorer masses who would bear the brunt of our profits when in the coming years when inflation continues to keep above 10%.

This brings me to the DMO and longer-term bond offerings... The DMO should work hand in hand with the CBN to harmonize rates

One thing is clear- the Nigerian economy or FGs revenue from such projects is not growing at such a pace to support the interest payments on bonds from income generated. This simply means that whatever interest is paid on local debt is from new money being minted.

Trickle down economics has not worked in any society. The first recipients of new money into an economy would always benefit the most simply because they bank and use their profits before inflation renders whatever gets to those lower down useless.

Following from what emefiele said and what we've seen with TBs, even if bond rates are halved, they'd still be oversubscribed. The question now is, why has the DMO continued to keep rates well above 10% which simply means that inflation will struggle to get below 10%? There should be more ingenious ways of injecting fresh fiat into the economy than rewarding portfolio investors at the expense of the poor masses

skydiver01:
Kindly find below todays NTB auction results.

Rates are finally beginning to make sense. What surprises me is that the 364 day TB rate which had 3.8 B on offer was oversubscribed to the tune of 63 B- a whooping 16x

This with Emefiele's recent pronouncements on excess liquidity stuck in the banks confirms my previous thesis that even if current TB rates are halved, they'd likely still be oversubscribed. Relatively low TB rates are good for the economy

It's a shame that our banks and CBN have all along been unable to provide an adequate vehicle to channel these funds back into the real economy. Kudos to Emefiele who has finally began to make some good decisions.

Morning my brethren.....
Been a while.... How una dey?

This is becoming more of online bullying than anything else

Can't overstate this.... Times like this are why it's good to earn interest on your crypt0 holdings and look at the bigger picture.
Also, portfolio allocation is key... Even with all the blood... Some coyns have held up better than others. e.g Avax, Luna....

My main sell these past weeks was my matic holding. Sold at 2.4 and bought back at 1.8.

Overall, with all bitc0in selloffs this year, it always goes down in the coming days-weeks to take out the initial low which will be 42.5k in this case....

Seeing a number of suspect and scam posts above.. Folks should beware of links they follow

MapleBae2020:
@jedisco I hope you're ok. It's been a while. Just checking up on you boss

I'm good... Been offline for a while...

Times like this are why it's good to earn interest on your crypt0 Holdings
Market has been slow. Didn't make any new buying aside crv which I mentioned earlier. Also compounded my matic

Would be good to get the full details of what transpired. There's no excuse for violence also, some folks see Uber drivers as people they can trample on

The caption of this post (while still unverified) only serves to promotestereotypes. Africa is not a single country. You wouldn't hear 'European politician' or Asian politician used to refer to folks from those regions

Good resolve.... Kudos

jedisco:
Came across this om defillama.

Shows different defi protocols and the total value locked on them (TVL)...

For those protocols that have tokens, I then looked at the market cap of the tokens.... It gives a good idea of what stuff is overinflated...

For example, Cake has a market cap of abt 4 billion and has 6.3 locked.
Crv has a market cap of 1.5 B but has 20 b locked....
Reason why I'm more bullish on crv that most others there.
Also, I like the way crv seems to be consolidating below 4 usd.... There's something about that number I like...


When I allocate my portfolio, I don't like spreading myself thin... So in each group, I want to select 1-3 tokens I believe would perform best...

There are no majic screens in this market... But if those screaming FA had brought up some reasoning similar to this, then I'd be listening. This thread should be a compendium of folks sharing knowledge

afroxyz:
FA in crypto is diffrent from stocks. In crypto you look at on-chain analysis like the number of active wallets, cash flow into an exchange, no of hodlers etc. Glassnode has some good analytics which can help on crypto FA. Dont know if you follow Will Clemente II on twitter.

I'm a love glassnode analytics... While they have some good FA, most of their charts will fall under TA rather than even FA.
In every market, there is data... Analysis that data to information is what I'm hammering.

Glassnode for example mainly tracks bitc0in... How many of the folks talking FA here own any amount of bitc0in in their portfolio?
Most called me naive when I advise folks who trade substantially to own some bitc0in or eth. How many bought at 30k when the fundamentals were screaming 'buy'?
Why have they been unable to state what coyns they hold and what FA they arrived at that?

I'd post an example of how I arrived at a coyn to trade based mainly on FA and later used TA to fine-tune it... It's such clear examples I'm asking them to bring forward

Johans:
Thank you for your numerous lessons on 21w ema. It has stuck with me.

Please what do you look out for whenever you chart coins against btcee and sometimes eith?

Why against btcee and not eith this time?

Would be kind to give practical example using any two coins.

Thanks a lot.

Kudos... Hopefully, using that to identify entries will make the market easier for you.

I chart alyt coyns against betece and eith to remind me why I'm holding them. It's a known fact that betece and eith will outperform 99% of alyt coyns in the long-term. So if a coyn is not keeping up with those two or having clear oscillations with either of them, then I'm better off holding eith or betece

Misyarn:
I dont even know what 21w ema is!
Can I invest now? Boss

Then I'd advise look to know what it is so you can identify trades.

Nini101:
Very true, I was trading with common sense even before I knew about TA and FA. Both are important. I'm still trying to get a hang of TA cos I feel no knowledge is a waste.

Please keep up the good work, you're one of the gurus I respect here.

The point is that they're largely inseparable.... They are not to be used independent of another... Thing is most folks think TA is just limited to price charts which is wrong... Some want a manic ball... Same folks would fall foul to folls promising them 'sure game' on bet 9ja

Misyarn:
Boss pls wen is the best entry for matic and crv

I dedicated a significant chunk of last week to explain how I gain entry into coyns

KingOKON:
.

Even a mb knows the "commonest" saying you don't put all your eggs into one basket
This isn't the first and definetly not be the last platform where FAs and TAs battle it out, and the mere fact that dip is on the march dosent mean people are seeing Red.
Actually many waited and expected this, while others only specialize in time like this.

Do I read charts for crypt0?
No, going 18months now

What is FA?
If a trader, newbie and wannabies after a period of time can't tell or define what an asset is, and what contributes to its overall value sincerely that individual will never grasp what is FA.

There is no battle between TA and FA... There is only a demarcation between folks who understand the realities of a volatile market and those who think the market should go up in a straight line...

I'm still yet to see an example of what you guys mean by FA... Give me a practical example you've used so I understand your FA

Case in point, based on fundamentals, I believe bitc0in will ultimately trend towards 1m usd over the next 1-2 decades. That doesn't mean I jump and buy this months bitc0in top of 70k...

Misyarn:
Boss pls wen is the best entry for matic and crv

In a bull market, the 21w ema usually provides the best risk to reward entry until the market tops out

seankafor:
Boss Jedis.co dey make me laugh

He go be like those teachers wey go dey scream on top of their heads for their students

Hehe....

My annoyance is that folks saying FA don't seem to know what it means to trade with FA

I'm still waiting for someone to explain what trading with FA means....

It all remids me of the news traders we had earlier this year. I spent weeks trying to explain to them that I also ride the news but trading news is very different from what they think. To them, any 'seemingly' bad news meant buy...

Guess what? most of them who obviously bought the earlier peak this year capitulated at 30k because the news said bitc0in was going to 18k and that crypt0 was dead... Now they've been sidelined, we're not hearing such talk again.

Neverlosemoney:
Lol…..At the bolded, are you saying this Folks screaming FA is the way; are just new folks that knows Nada? And are they mainly screaming because they are in severe pain after unexpectedly losing great deal of money to bitcoín fall? Cause I am starting to notice this call out of TA is useless happens when there is a drastic fall in BeTĆ price!!!

And I am really glad you chartist guys are staying on your ground this time around, I admire that. Normally, at this kind of time; you all would have gone into oblivion and start coming out when things goes back to normal

It's not a personal attack....and I'm not a chartist... I'm just someone trying to use common sense.

Have you bothered asking most folks screaming FA what exactly they mean by FA?
Ask them and their response would be using their whole portfolio to buy one obscure or unlisted token whose whitepaper promised it'd replace bitc0in and make them rich... Of course that can happen but they shouldn't also come complaining when the market inevitably schools them.

Most of my trades are based on FA... I am bullish on crv and polygon but I don't need a chart to tell me eith will outperform them in the long-term. Same also with bnb and cake. How many of the 'FA' traders hold any amount of eith which undeniably has the strongest fundamental in this space (perhaps aside bitc0in)?

I prefer to trade major moves... But it gets stale when with every dip, those wrecked come and start blaming the market. I had been patiently waiting for a dip for over a month... I didn't know when it would come, but I knew it would cos common sense says markets dont go up in a straight line. I did some buying this week and hopefully more next week... I know someone who mainly owns eith since it wasat 250 and his annoyance this week is that eith has not dipped well below 4k...

StrafordSTONES:
Alot of commentaries here but how can you blame anyone;
People's 1k are turning $930.... started buying dips from yesterday and then this morning, currently losing about 80. I am having a conviction we still in a bull and then dips are normal occurrences in month ends. However, the new covid variant may come with its own stuffs and nuke the whole market and then I would wish I had closed everything at this level. It's all good, let's and watch and see.

80 USD from 1000k is barely 10%. No hard feelings but the simple fact is if you cannot handle a 10% dip, then you have no business being in crypt0.
If your money gets back to 1k, just withdraw it and buy Trasury Bills.. that's almost guaranteed... Another thing you could do is stake stable coyns...


I'm saying this cos if bitc0in does go on that rally you are expecting, then 20-40% pullbacks will happen multiple times....
Crypt0 is inherently volatile, if you can't handle that volatility, then it's best you stay out

Seun and Nairaland should learn from this.
Nairaland needs to do more to sanitise this place- its like a free all for cultural hate, bigotry, religious hate, woman hating e.t.c.

Freedom of speech does not mean freedom to go and insult folks. Most of the statements we've come to see as normal on NL will not be tolerated on FB, Twitter, Reddit e.tc which are social platforms of Western nations that champion 'free speech'. Imagine going on Facebook to say 'all British ladies are .....' But mods here allow such to flourish unchecked

Seun brandishes a disclaimer that 'everyone is responsible for what they post' but as the biggest Nigerian fora, he should know that disclaimer will not save him when law enforcement agencies come calling. Sooner or later, I expect some foreign news agencies to do an expose on the hate culture rife on Nairaland

ohamng:
TA, most atimes it does show FA and SA if carefully watched. Good to learn all.

The folks leading this talk are just folks who bought the top.
They're yet to explain how they use one irrespective of the other

Neverlosemoney:
Lol.....This one makes you money....That one makes you homeless....As long people in strong support of FA makes money from it and people in strong support of TA makes money from it, this argument will go on forever. Wherever this two set of people are this debate is sure to constantly surface!!!!

“A man is incapable of comprehending any argument that interferes with his revenue”.

It's not evan a debate to start with... Most successful folks I know in this space incorporate both into their trading style... Those screaming FA have not shared how they use FA to make money...

Sometime back, I made a post on portfolio allocation. That highlighted more strategizing using FA than I have seen posted here.... Why is a good chunk of my portfolio is in eth? it's based simply on FA.

So when they say FA vs TA, it's not a debate that's meant to be followed.. It's just a group of new folks who the market is schooling.... If you enjoyed the 75% Bitc0in pump from 40k to 70k, then a very healthy 25% retrace is common sense....

ohamng:
What's your take on peachfolio pls?

No idea.. not a coyn I trade

OffsahBoye:
Hy guys,
In this dip, which would you prefer to buy
Link or Atom
I need one that recovers quickly with betc
Because waves and serum don do me shege(thought I bought their dip )only for betc to show me what exactly dip shit is

Look at their weekly charts against betece and how they're interracting with the 21w ema