₦airaland Forum

Implications of the spread of UME candidates

Under the assumption that a UME candidate will only register in a city or within a state where he or she lives then from the data in the link below if correct because it is not directly from JAMB

Kaduna and Abuja have a population similar to Lagos currently. They are each up to ninety percent of Lagos population

Osun state has more population than Anambra state under the assumption that the residents of both states go to university at the same or similar rates.



No matter how educationally backward Kano state is, it can hardly be possible for Kano state's total population to be much more than the population of Kaduna state and if Kano and say Katsina have the same rate of university attendance then Kano is just above double the population of Katsina state. This is probably true because digital data like active sim cards put Kano at more than Oyo state but far below Lagos than is believed by Nigerians

However a disruptor might be students relocating from their home states to go and write UME in a state other than their state of residence which often are states that host popular universities where the students of those universities tutor them or even help them cheat






https://myschool.ng/news/jamb-2026-utme-registered-candidates-in-each-state

Streetinvestor2:
I am old enough to say things by experience. I was business partner to build first serious fast food in ife that later failed. So I know osun well.Even recent statistics still points the state as the worst state for new startup for business. Have you ever been to osun state. I only teach you things not rubbish from AI that generates alot of mistakes. You can only compare osun with Ebonyi in SE

You can't just be talking on emotions. You don't have more facts than what is available on the internet. I live in Osun and I have been to Owerri, Nsukka and Aba. I am talking of what is on ground and not the ease of starting a new business. As at now, Osun has more phone lines, more internet subscribers, more hotels, more banks and etc than any state in the SE apart from Anambra state. If Osun is divided into half, Ebonyi will not be up to any of the halves

I think Ebonyi has 66 banks and 167 hotels. Osun has like 225 banks or so and around 700 hotels. Ebonyi is not as developed as half of the Ife Ijesa senatorial district in Osun stare

DomPerignon:
So why is there a net negative migration from your SE?

Maybe in the past when the place was mostly rural but not necessarily so today. You just can't say without bringing data that Oyo state is more cosmopolitan than Enugu, Anambra or Imo in Nigeria today. Lagos is more cosmopolitan than any SE state and Rivers is more cosmopolitan than any SW state

saintkel:
we don't have data or stat to back dis up so let's let it slide...

For Osun I have real data but not for Ogun state. I however believe it will the same or almost the same thing. I am a member of the WhatsApp groups of the schools I attended up till now and what I gave you is not made up data

DomPerignon:
Osun's annual cocoa production dwarfs your entire SE economy.

Oyo has a bigger economy than the entire SE


Don't even try to compare with Ogun.

The only SW state that is comparable to Anambra is Ekiti and all indices given population density and availability of land plus available solid minerals that are yet to be exploited, Ekiti still beats your entire SE.

The only viable state in the SE is Enugu owing to land availability, natural gas deposits.

The rest of the SE is a net negative overcrowded shetle

GDP is largely to do with population when the cost of living and other things are constant eg the level of taxation and organisation, therefore the combination of Oyo and Ogun will be around the same GDP as the SE.

If Osun has cocoa then Anambra has palm oil and it is also a hub for trading. One will cancel out the other

Mbanda:
Apart from Lagos which other SW state do you think generates money more than other states in Nigeria? And don't forget that the money that lagos is generating is, as a result of the seaport there. And Nigerian government made it so by refusing to create other viable seaports in SE and SS.

Do you know that Enugu too is now generating revenue and that PAYE is the majority just like in Lagos? If port is the reason why Lagos has revenue, what is the reason for Enugu's revenue?

saintkel:
I served in Osun....odo otin local government....ijabe konta....I think that place shares boundary with kwara....so i know what I mean when i say Igbos qre there in Osun....i dont have d data for ogun

I never said no Igbo in Osun state only that non Yoruba (not non indigene) are not up to three percent of the population of Osun and Igbo are not more than one quarter of that three percent

saintkel:
U are indeed a funny one....remove Lagos from south west too n watch southwest become low in revenue.....now let's talk about Igbos in Ogun and Osun....I wish we have verifiable data....

Why will you remove Lagos from SW when as much as 18 million Yoruba live there? The combination of Ogun and Oyo can't be much more than that. Can you remove Anambra from the SE and even Enugu for them together having millions of non Igbos? The states that lost population most to Lagos are the SW states surrounding it and if everybody from across the world should return home then the population of Yoruba land will swell. You can't remove Lagos from SW economy just because less than thirty percent of the population are non Yoruba. That is not how it works. As non Yoruba contribute to Yoruba the Yoruba are also contributing in other places.
Then I grew up in Osun and the non Yoruba in Osun are less than three percent of the population. None in my primary school at all from primary one to five and there were only a few in some of my classes in high school. Most of my classes had none. It was only in the university in ife that they were around ten percent of the class. In church, in school, in the area I lived, they were less than three percent maybe two percent and I believe it is the same for Ogun state. You can make your own research and that two percent include people from all over the country

Streetinvestor2:
So when they want to call stated you cal ondo osun and ekiti as productive state. State besides civil service works. The remaining are transport union workers. Which factories are in those 3 states.I personally contributed to pay workers back those days in osun state as was announced in my church

Go online and make research. Osun has everything more than any state in the SE apart from Anambra state. More banks, more hotels and more factories, more active sim cards and etc. Type it into Google or use AI. The people working in all those places are collecting salaries and feeding their families. The only state economically ahead of Osun in the SE is Anambra. If you say they are better off, how come they don't even have as many active sim cards as Osun state?

saintkel:
u can't compare d numbers of Yorubas in Anambra with d numbers of Igbos in Ogun or Lagos ...infact, u cant even compare Yorubas who pay revenue in Enugu to d Igbos who pay in Osun

I only agree with Lagos but not with other states. Non Yoruba are negligible in other SW states apart from Lagos and in Lagos they will be lower than thirty percent to be shared among the hundreds of ethnic groups in Nigeria. Igbo in Osun are between 50k and 100k out of a population of close to six million. There will be more Yoruba by far in Anambra than Igbo in Osun and the percentage of Yoruba in Rivers may be higher than Igbo in Lagos. So it cuts across since there is no barrier against migration in the country. The only difference between Lagos and PH is total population

sweerychick:
typical SW reasoning, so we should go and indebt ourselves because we are not generating enough abi? No wonder with all the billions your region generates there's nothing absolutely nothing to show for, with the money Lagos generates alone it should compete with the likes of Qatar and Dubai..

.
Lagos budget is not more than three billion dollars per annum for over twenty million people

saintkel:
which revenue r u talking about?....is it just yorubas who pay revenue in Lagos or Ogun?....is Dangote refinery that is in Lagos not d biggest payer of revenue in yoruba land?.... Or don't Igbos own businesses in yoruba land pay taxes?....maybe we do it that way n see who pays more tax n generate revenue

So Yorubas don't own businesses in PH, Onitsha, Kano, Awka, Enugu and etc? There are no Yoruba HNIs in those places too and they don't pay taxes? I remember someone mentioning that the highest employer of labor in the East is Otunba Mike Adenuga. At the end, you just go by the population of taxpayers. The majority of Lagos revenue is PAYE and the majority of those paying are Yoruba the same is true for Enugu now where the majority of their revenue is now PAYE and the majority of those who pay are without a doubt Igbo people

Goodvibes007:
Ogun state alone has more factories that the whole of the 5 SE state combined together.

The SE if not care us being taken may end up being the Somaliland region of Nigeria. They contribute the least to the federation pot and take the most, yet nothing to show for it. Even terrorized NE region is performing better than the SE region.

They have factories in the SE as well and there is no indication of huge activity in Ogun state from the VAT they pay that show them to have more factories than all the SE

DomPerignon:
So why the constant need of dik measuring with the SW?

And while you are at it, what of the SS?

Most people base their opinions on Nigerian census when there are many other authentic data based on biometric from NIN to active sim cards to voters registration, ume registration and many others with which the population of any two different states can be compared

https://nimc.gov.ng/nin/enrolment-report/october-2025

DomPerignon:
It's more of an indicator of the lending markets confidence in loaning to the region.

SE is low because there is low confidence in loaning to the region due to inability to meet their loan obligations.

This is akin to Treasury Bonds. Countries have very low subscription due to low confidence on investors to buy and hold their Treasury bonds. To attract investors, the country will need to increase their interest rates on said bonds to attract investors.

Countries with low interest rates on their bonds is an indicator of high subscription and the market's confidence that the sovereign issuing the debt can honour their agreement.

So let's say United States for example which has the highest debt far far lower than Rwanda.

The US Treasury bonds are set as low as 5% on ten year bonds and the total debt from this has now surpassed the US GDP.

Rwanda on the other hand has in comparison to the US negligible debt but is offering higher returns on their bonds because no one wants to buy and hold it.

If you check well, you will see that the majority of debt owed by the SW isn't sourced from the local money market but from international institutions which loan far lower than local banks . Most of that loan are being serviced at single digit interest rates .

As per the SE, the only place they can get loans is from the domestic markets and this is in the double digit room temperature rates.

What this translates to is that SE may be servicing their low volume debt at a much higher interest rates compared to the SW.

Oyo and Ogun alone are around the same population as the SE. Lagos is 120 percent of the SE and there are still Osun Ekiti and Ondo. It is therefore totally unwarranted or uncalled for to be saying the SE is not doing well based on what the SW is doing. Remember the SE is around the same size as Oyo state

gidgiddy:
There's a big difference between abolishing democracy and abolishing the Regions

Did Ironsi abolish democracy? Of course he did, thats how Soldiers like him seized power all over Africa and ruled by decree.

But did Ironsi abolish the Regions and change the structural arrangement of Nigeria? No he did not. Ironsi even allowed resource control during his time in office

The person who actually abolished the four Regions Nigeria had before military rule, was Gowon. Gowon abolished the 4 Regions Nigeria had, and created 12 new states to replace them, with Decree 14. Gowon then abolished resource control with Decree 15

Gowon even told you Nigerians that he was abolishing the Regions in his own Decree which said in section 1:

"There shall, on commencement of this Decree, be created out of the Region's, States to be known by the names in column 1

So if you are still arguing about who abolished the Region's, you need help

What people complain about of General Ironsi was his attempted unification of the civil service. That was the main thing. Resource control by the FG is actually not that bad because nobody put the oil there and it is actually free money that is owned by the FG in many successful nations. The strange one Nigeria that Ironsi was trying to create where state civil service will be under the FG is what people say was wrong. Nigeria was negotiated as a union of nations with separate civil service and independent governments

saintkel:
it is not about federal character again but what u guys contributed....no wonder Buhari and Tinubu and pure bigots

If there is equal revenue drive then the Yoruba will not be able to bring more than thirty to thirty five percent of revenue to the table and that is the representation they deserve and it will equal their percentage of the total population and they should have that percentage of total number of states as well if there were any semblance of fair play

saintkel:
I other words d yorubas stopped supporting Jonathan for mere appointments?....interesting....let me write dis down....I'll use dis for future reference

So if you contribute thirty percent of investment and you are being given five percent of returns, you will continue supporting the person trampling on you even after you have gone to urge the person to change?.
However it was partly because of the rigged population census that Nigeria is based on. Presently the SW Yoruba contribute forty percent of non oil revenue before adding the contributions of the Yoruba in the SS and NC. It is now clear to anybody with sense that Nigeria is designed to trample upon the Yoruba

Refinedbeing:
So theirs Oja Oba in Benin too? Is it also located beside the Kings’ palace?

The major way to ascertain a Yoruba town/settlement is that the Oja obas are always beside the Kings palace and that’s mostly the city centre. Every other parts are built surrounding both.

Not insinuating Benin is a Yorubaland by the way. Just asking out of curiosity and saying so others can learn.

The original Benin city was a Yoruba city not different from Owo or Akure but it had villages surrounding it filled with non Yoruba speaking people and also some Yoruba speaking villages. After the decline of the empire some of the Yoruba left and some of the non Yoruba speakers from the suburbs entered the city and became the majority turning it into a non Yoruba city

flokii:
Nigeria has never had it this bad where citizens lives mean nothing to the so called leaders.
You see that docile and "I don't care attitude" of Yoruba people.. may it not wipe out Yorubaland.

People are getting kidnapped, getting tortured and killed, yet our politicians are busy with 2027 elections.. who exactly do they expect to come out or risk their lives to vote for them?. The same people they don't take seriously?

Some people will learn bitter lessons in 2027.

What have you and your leaders done to ask for the decentralization of security?

Truthsave:
While they remain focused on fighting Nnamdi Kanu and the Biafra movement, their own communities are collapsing — homes are being destroyed, women are being raped, and men are being brutally killed and beheaded.

If people don't want Biafra to happen, those people are not Yoruba people. When did Nnamdi Kanu become the hero or savior of Yoruba? Have you watched any of his videos? If you want the insecurity to end, what you can do is to join the clamour for state police. It is not Atiku or Obi that will improve the situation by any means

saintkel:
i am just wondering if Tinubu were an Igbo man.....just wondering what will happen?

Jonathan was not Yoruba but was supported by the Yoruba until he started giving them less than what they deserve like five percent of appointments

If Tinubu were Igbo you would be praising him for reducing oil money to less than twenty five percent of revenue and thereby more than tripling allocations to states and local governments. Wouldn't you ?

kingbee90:
Yet Yoruba people are still on nairaland supporting the failed fake man called Amoda Ogunlere who has allowed K*ller herdsmen into his region to attack & steal the lands & heritage of the Yoruba people.

Tinubu failed in security and that's because he knows the people doing the damage but has done nothing to stop them. He however is in support of state police. What have your leaders done to make state police a reality? Are you planning to vote for someone who has spoken publicly in support of state police?

Produce boards are the only ways to make farmers a partner to government

This applies to Hausa land more than others because their economy is more agrarian than others.

If a country like Canada is still using produce boards, how much more Nigeria and Hausa land in particular? I remember many years ago when I encountered online some Canadians talking about a Canadian farmer that was sent to prison for selling his own produce to buyers from across the border in the USA because they offered a higher price than what government pays.

What is needed to be ensured is that farmers will always have a fair deal and this can be easily achieved if their union have members on the board of the produce marketing company and there is a signed agreement saying a certain minimum percentage of total sales of any produce must go the farmers no matter the expenses incurred by the marketing board.

We must realize that government will have the incentive to support farming growth if they have a stake in it. They will develop new markets and support research to get better yield and everybody will gain.

It is the lack of a produce board that made Nigeria to fall behind from number one in cocoa and palm oil production to what they are today. Ghana of thirty three million people made six billion dollars from cocoa in the same year Nigeria of over two hundred million people made around two billion dollars and Nigeria used to be the leader in the days of the West African produce marketing board of the Action Group.

Hausa land can make from beef and dairy export what Nigeria makes from oil but the effort will have to be led by government. Some cattle ranches around the world are so well run that they are publicly listed and they have revenue in billions of dollars per annum.

In this same Nigeria before the feeding bottle federalism became a thing, government produce boards bought all maize produced in the North and if you produced up to a certain tonnage then you can only be paid in Minna according to what I read.

The whole economy rests on the agricultural sector and the best way to partner them with government is via produce boards. It will be their own way of paying tax and that tax from produce alone will far surpass the oil revenue as the oil sector according to the latest NBS data is less than three percent of the GDP. VAT is also relatively untapped across the country because VAT potential is directly proportional to the population and we are not yet talking about the King of all taxes which is personal income tax belonging to states.

Yemmysworld91:
Benin has been in existence way before Oyo though. Benin people argue that Oranmiyan only came and establish royalty in Benin; and that there was a ruling dynasty before Oranmiyan came.
And i don't think they will agree with you that the bronze casters moved from Ife to Benin, they see it as the other way round.

The history is conflicting and I don't think we will get an actual picture of which came first between Benin and Ife.
Though I'm beginning to think Benin. I'm not conclusive though

Did the Oyo empire come before Nigeria? If yes then the Benin came after whatever was there before Oranmiyan. They are not the same thing. They didn't use the same institutions and etc. Igodomigodo is not the same thing as Benin

Yemmysworld91:
Hmmmm
I like how you marshal your points. Like I already mentioned, this piece of history is one of the most controversial that I have tried to understand with no accuracy. So, don't assume I have an opinion or reached a conclusion.

My little researches show that, Benin is obviously older than the Oyo empire (which of course went on to rule the Yorubas for centuries). But there's no accuracy on which comes first, the Benin or Ife empire. And on the bight of Benin, the Benins obviously had early access to the waters unlike Ife that's deep inside. And there's no dispute on the Benin influence on Lagos, Aworis and Itshekiris.

And I don't think the difference between the Benins and Yorubas is that wide. I strongly believe that both tribes in addition to the Itshekiris can easily blend with each other than any other ethnic groups in Nigeria.

The history has been greatly distorted such that accuracy is difficult

Benin and Oyo dynasties were founded by the same person. I am not sure which one gained prominence first but Alaafin Sango who is one of the most deified individuals on Earth today was an Alaafin of Oyo and he was a grandson I believe of Oranmiyan the founder. If that were taken into consideration then Oyo became prominent before Benin and was far far bigger than Benin in extent. Benin was more tranquil and may have been seen as a spiritual center being positioned to become a new Ife because that is how I interprete the bronze casters moving from ife to Benin and not to Oyo. The actual name of Benin is Ife Ibinu and not ile ibinu as many say.

Refinedbeing:
The founder of Ile Ife who eventually turns to become the father of the Yorubas today is Lamurudu. He’s one of those guys that migrated from Sudan/Cush to find a new settlement just like many other West African settlers of today. The only link Ife had with Benin was Oranmiyan who went on to become their king before going on to form Oyo town which later became an empire. The reason why Lamurudu isn’t much in our history as Yoruba was simply because of our earlier Muslim scholars who tried to change the story that Lamurudu was a runaway Saudi prince which isn’t true. He’s just a migrant from Sudan just like the GA people of Ghana too.

Benin people are so confused that they claim Oduduwa happens to be their runaway prince named Izoduwa and that they requested for his son to come back to rule them after they found out he’s old and can no longer return to Benin to rule them. But in reality, Oduduwas reign as the Ooni of Ile-Ife was extremely short because back then the battle for the position was intense between his supporters and that of Obatala and then Ogun. And also Oranmiyan that they always claim to be a son of the so called Izoduwa happens to actually be the son of Ogun and not Oduduwa. Oduduwa didn’t have enough time to do a lot of things as the Ooni of Ife because he took over violently from Obatala and all through his short reign, Obatala and his supporters didn’t let him enjoy peace. The only reason why he’s so revere today in Ile-Ife and across Yorubaland worldwide is that he happens to be the first Ooni of unified Ile-Ife.

So Benin history sounds like a lot of fallacy.

Lamurudu is not Yoruba. If not show me a temple of Lamurudu or adherents of Lamurudu. It was just a name mentioned by the person that founded the current dynasty in Yoruba land to his children. He mentioned that name to his children so that they will know where he came from. The name is apparently same name as Nimrod the King who ruled over Sumeria over five thousand years ago. Many dynasties across the middle east claim descent from him. I believe strongly that the man who mentioned that name to his children is descended from one of those dynasties probably Egyptian but the people in Ife recognized him as an incarnate of Oduduwa and they were right. The original Oduduwa was the first King of a united Earth in Yoruba mythology

WhizdomXX:
Yes oo like the 13% derivation and gas from the Niger Delta powering Lagos, Abuja and Kaduna.

13 percent goes to those states bearing oil and not to other states. Lagos is bearing oil as well and the federation is owing Lagos over one century derivation from ports revenue. If Lagos were a country it will be like Benin republic or Togo with huge revenue from the ports. Do you think it is fair the Niger delta are paid 13 percent and Lagos is paid nothing? Remember the offshore oil isn't even on their land and it is the majority.

Then Lagos generated 2.6 trillion naira last year. That is more than 200 billion naira a month. Don't add Lagos to states gaining something from Nigeria. They are fending for themselves and Nigeria is owing them derivation from port revenue

Streetinvestor2:
When I say u don't know anything. It is not a joke
The major contributor to Nigeria revenue are this 3 things which the money is shared
1 oil and gas revenue
2 Taxes. Coperate tax
2 custom and import revenue
Pls show us the workings how Yorubas contribute most to this three sectors than others

The IGR by states are not shared which personal income tax belongs to states too
And is on records that Yorubas are mostly civil servants.
Don't even go to vat.As vat is tax on consumption. And we know in lagos who are the people really consuming and servicing the economy.
Stop posting things you don't know about.
Go check the companies who pay major Coperate tax on ngx and what it has to do with Yoruba. The company HQ is in lagos does not mean it is owned by Yorubas like banks,cement cement companies and oil companies

You better get it into your head that whatever is on Yoruba land is the commonwealth of the Yoruba and what is on your land is your commonwealth. Are you the one making policies and collecting the taxes? You better wake up Mind you what Yorubas are doing all over the country outside Yoruba land belong to those lands too.

If five million people pay tax in Lagos the vast majority are Yoruba and if 1.5 million people pay tax in Rivers the vast majority are Igboid people. In Kano it is the Hausa people. There are boundaries.

Any VAT, CIT etc paid in Lagos is contribution by Yoruba land to Nigeria.

Among all of them, nobody understands how to generate money as much as Tinubu and no matter your noble intentions you can't perform without revenue. Always remember that most governors you think are performing today apart from a few are able to do so because of new revenue gotten by Tinubu and not by their own ingenuity

Tinubu has failed in security because he knows the people behind the problem but he is not moving against them. However he is in support of state police which is the real solution. Any candidate not in support of decentralizing security is a dangerous person. It is the only way forward

Then disintegration of the country is the best thing for every group. Let every group take their destinies into their hands.

I for one am not in support of the Yoruba paying half of the taxes and being given one fifth or less of the representation at the center including number of states and etc. That is shortage and the current constitution supports it. With the current constitution and sharing formula of everything the Yoruba will always be shortchanged and they will still be insulted on top of it.

Every group incur losses in different ways too. Just look at how better organized neighbouring nations are. So if you want the west African sub region to rise, support disintegration

Christistruth03:
They prefer to Kpai than live without Lagos in their lives

But there is nothing special in Lagos than a government collecting taxes which Rivers too has been doing for years. Check the last JAMB registration, Abuja and Kaduna are almost at par with Lagos by number of students It tells a story that shouldn't be ignored

Nchenches:
All figments of your imagination, not even a statistics cited

So NIN. figures are figments of my imagination?. Non Yoruba in Osun are less than three percent. I did a survey and it is not a figment of my imagination. To prove me wrong, do your own survey and it is possible on nairaland. If you can get ten random classrooms in Northern Nigeria where southerners are up to three percent of the students and publish it here then you will have a point but remember Northerners have a low school enrolment rate.