₦airaland Forum

What is happening is the fault of the opposition. They didn't tie up the loose ends. When APC was formed the ACN and CPC were deregistered and there was no former this former that. Let the ADC go and put their house in order or they all move to another platform while making sure they do it correctly this time. If they don't, someone will mess them up again

Northern Nigeria has less than three million Southerners resident there

Some people base their argument that Nigeria should not divide on a claim that there are millions of Southerners in the North and millions of Northerners in the South but I have debunked this claim with actual research. I am a scientist and researcher and my final year thesis was published in a foremost journal without me soliciting for it or patronizing anybody. I merely submitted it and then I was summoned by my supervisor.That was in OAU and when some people who are Professors today were still in high school. Therefore I quite understand the scientific method.

I know for a fact that the percentage of non Yoruba in Osun state is less than three percent because I grew up there and went to school there. I still belong to the WhatsApp groups of both my primary and secondary schools and both have less than three percent non Yoruba. I attended churches in Osun and stayed in neighborhoods. There is therefore no doubt that my conclusion is correct.

I can say that if the fact is true for Osun state given it's level of urbanization and number of urban centers then the average Northern state will have less than three percent of their population as Southerners. If the population of the North is around 110 million, then the total number of Southerners in the North will be less than three million without adding Abuja the federal capital territory to the mix.

Don't argue with me, just provide proof that I am wrong by posting the ethnic composition of ten random classrooms in Northern Nigeria.

While it is true that Lagos contains the largest diaspora population of most groups in Nigeria just as London probably contains the largest diaspora population of the Yoruba outside Yoruba land or outside Nigeria, it does not mean Nigeria must continue existing just because of that despite all the attendant negative baggage. Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Kaduna, Kano, Enugu, Jos, Ibadan and etc will continue being cosmopolitan cities in their own respect regardless of whatever happens.

The number of Southerners in the North and Northerners in the South, Easterners in the west, westerners in the East and etc is negligible and it should not even be an issue

DoTheNeedful:
Even if Tinubu loses the presidency in 2027, it would be on record that he was the president of Nigeria. He also played smarter than GEJ who spend his time appeasing the North, building almajiri schools and doing things he thought could pave way for his second term, without doing major projects in his region. In the end, the North voted him out.

Tinubu, while strategizing for second term, is still ensuring massive projects are carried out in Lagos. He's constructing the Lagos-Calabar highway, approved a billion dollar light rail in Lagos, billion dollar modernization of Lagos ports, almost a billion dollar upgrade of the Lagos airport and so on. As a strategist, I think he knew that the North might gang up with some Southerner to vote him out.

Why did I state all the above? If Tinubu does not win next year, he would have achieved most of his goals. He would forever be referred to as a former president. Would the same be said of Peter Obi?

When we talk of Southern turn, it is bigger than Tinubu. Is Obi not a Southerner? If you think you want to even the score of 2015 with the SW through Tinubu, good luck to you. A part of me even want it to happen so people like you can enjoy the feeling of revenge.

Just know, the chicken will come home to roost. The Northerners have the history of ganging up with some disaffected Southerners to take over power from the South. They did it in 2015, they are doing it now. Obasanjo, a Southerner, is the only president who was said to have knelt down to his deputy (a Northerner) just to do a second term. They wanted to gang up against him then as well. It is a pattern and it is not going to end soon.

If Obi and his followers gang up with the North to take power to the North, the alliance will not last one term. Another Northerner will gang up with the Yorubas or Ijaw , make a Yoruba/Ijaw man the VP (a useless position) and keep the power in the North. Last last, the South will get sense maybe after 100 years.

Mind you, I prefer Obi, Ameachi or any other Southern to rule till 2031 than have a Northerner take over next year. The yoke must be broken.

It is all politics and any group can gang up with any group. Look for people to gang up with you. Southern Nigeria was never one at any time. Yoruba are the number one by population in the South and number 2 in the North. Any kind of gang up should not be discouraged. It is all part of politics

Do you want them to disobey a court judgement? Let the opposition put their house in order. It is a small challenge for any group seeking to take power

Just one or two foundational ADC members should not be difficult to accommodate in the exco. There are people who won election with the party. I think one person and it would be wrong to just push them aside. Let them settle with the few aggrieved people. They should be able to do that

If Herbert Macaulay had made it to Nigerian independence.

If Herbert Macaulay had not died in 1946 and instead made it to Nigerian independence, there may not have been any opposition party in the country. The NCNC was not a political party in the modern sense. It was an amalgam of trade unions, professional bodies and ethnic based parties or town unions. Almost all Yoruba towns had town unions that were registered political parties. There were such parties in other places too. The town or ethnic parties were simply registered Ogboni associations and Ogboni don't do opposition politics. The town parties were NCNC along with their monarchs. The NCNC was so designed that any other association of people in the country would collapse into it after negotiations. I don't think there is any other party like that on Earth presently. The closest would be the Communist party of China but they don't negotiate with any other group is a difference. The socialist parties in Cuba and etc are based on ideology. The NCNC was more like an Ogboni society than a political party. It created room for everybody.

It was the most popular party in the west up till when the Action Group took over and the Action Group was only able to take over because Dr Azikiwe the post Macaulay NCNC leader attempted to become the Premier of the west. The AG capitalized on the natural ethnic sentiments of the Yoruba and they were able to secure the alliance of some members of the Ibadan People's Party and others that would ordinarily have aligned with the NCNC. The IPP announced that they preferred the NCNC but as their leader is not from the West, they would align with the AG instead since an Easterner is Premier in the East and a Northerner Premier in the North already and there would be an imbalance if Dr Azikiwe an Easterner should emerge leader of the West. The Action Group itself or it's progenitor The Egbe Omo Oduduwa would have aligned with the NCNC after asking for concessions if Dr Azikiwe were not in the house of assembly in Ibadan. The AG would have had no choice since they did not have enough seats on their own. The NPC too of course would have fallen in line and others too. Not aligning with a party that has among it's appendages powerful unions like the Railway workers, Union of teachers and etc would have been foolhardy for any party.

If Sir Macaulay were alive in 1960 and leading the NCNC, there would not have been any attempt by Dr Azikiwe to become the Premier of the west as happened and Nigeria would likely have ended up a one party state with a Prime Minister from the North as later happened because the North would not have continued with the Nigerian union without being given the position of the Prime Minister.

In Nigeria Yoruba produce more oil by far than Igbos without even adding Itsekiri oil, so this Op is wrong and he should not have opened this thread. It is however not something peculiar to him as I have encountered other people, educated saying the same thing.

The Yoruba are the most shortchanged in Nigeria and if tax were the revenue source, this would become very apparent

AMINDA:
That's all you Tinubu supporters always come back to. Rigging. That's how you know he has lost the election. Are you going to come all the way from Iragbiji to rig an election in Kano? Goodluck with it.

I am not a supporter of Tinubu, I am just telling you the reality. Support disintegration so that you can build your land in peace. Kano is the one of the most likely states that will vote without ethnic sentiments.

AMINDA:
So says an Ayofe. Is he also from Kano,? Lessons will be learnt.

Wait if they rig the election, what can the North do? They are not Niger Delta militants that can disturb oil flow neither are they the main source of VAT, CIT and other upcoming revenue source. If you don't want the country to divide, be ready for other eventualities like Northern Yoruba taking over from Tinubu. Be ready for that. The best thing for the country is division

Lithiumite:
Gej was on a borrowed mandate and refused to return it when he should have after 1 term.....the north are the most honest politically sophisticated people in this country... tinubu is holding the turn of the south after 8 years it was in the north,its only fair the south be allowed to do its 2 terms and the north upholds and believes in fairness and justice,even atiku will be rejected by them in 27 if he decides to run and also tve south too wont be so keen for power to return northwards just after 4 years of buhari.....the northern xtians for now won't want to touch another fulani with a long poll with all the acrimony going on in the north with that tribe..... anyone thinking the north will push out tinubu and give it to another southerner in 27,just tell that person to change his supplier.

The North alone can not determine the results of even a party primary which was why MKO Abiola was able to win. Not to talk of the main election.

If you can win with a good margin both the NW and the SW, you will be President. The two zones are more than half of the population, if you add the Yoruba in the NC to it then it will be a done deal. That was what happened when Buhari beat Jonathan

gidgiddy:
Even with subsidy removal, Tinubu is borrowing more than Buhari did

Buhari would have borrowed more if he had more revenue. He left debts whose interests the entire federal revenue can not pay. Around 100 percent of revenue was to be used to service and not even pay off debts

Yes even credit is lying fallow in Nigeria. Assets including real estate and etc are also lying fallow. Mobilization of liquidity and real estate is very poor

Streetinvestor2:
This time SW president aka Yoruba president won't see 10k votes in SE.Even with his yeye City boy movement. We rubbished them of recent in imo state
We are going to polling units with enough counting machines

Then why should SE president see 1k vote in the SW?. The total votes in the SE is less than the combination of Oyo and Ogun. What is good for the goose is good for the gander you know?

DoTheNeedful:
Apologies for not responding earlier.

Atiku is more entrenched in the Northern political establishment than Kwankwanso. There are levels to this thing. Buhari was far stronger than Atiku, and Atiku is stronger than Kwankwanso. Atiku's influence spread across North East to North West, and to some extent North Central. The same cannot be said of Kwankwanso, who is only strong in Kano and to some extent Jigawa.

I don't see Kwankwanso/Obi doing better than Atiku/Obi. Atiku/Obi remains the most viable ticket to go against Tinubu.

Any Northern Muslim politician of considerable stature will have the same effect against Tinubu. What helped Atiku to come second the last time was the PDP structure which is no longer available.

DoTheNeedful:
Tinubu would be happy with Obi/Kwankwanso.

Northerners understand power, they are politically savvy and they clearly understand the difference between the powers of a president and the vice president. There is no way Adamu in Jigawa would vote for Obi over Tinubu.

The only ticket that stands any chance against Tinubu is Atiku/Obi. Obidients need to get out of your echo chamber and understand that the Nigerian political permutations is beyond the narrow one your fellow Obidients revel in.

I asked but you refuse to answer. Now that Kwankwanso is in ADC, what about Kwankwanso/Obi ticket?. Can an Atiku pull more votes in the North than a Kwankwanso? As Yoruba villages are being deserted now and the NSA caught sending non indigenes there as vigilantes is not sacked by Tinubu. These same Ribadu vigilantes are probably responsible for banditry across the country. Who among Kwankwanso and Atiku is best positioned to solve the problem?.

nairalanda1:
Yes but it's going to cost a lot of money to get them to that level

Note that I am not saying no to.state police. I'm saying no to a state police that would be wiped out by well armed jihadi fighters because the budget for the state police is severely malnourished

So if you are well armed as well, you will run away from a bandit who is a man like yourself?

nairalanda1:
Well, I know I am right when I believe that it would cost states to pay for state police a lot of money. I deal in realism, and most Nigerians are not very realistic.

They believe that a state police can be funded from securitry votes. It cannot, and it would not work very well.

(I'm also not younger than you, darling )

You can't run a police department with security vote of course because with a police department you are substantially increasing the size of your civil service as a state. It can be as much as ten percent more and your expenses will increase accordingly. That is all there is to it

nairalanda1:
Because in your responses to me you are being patronising.

And you also talked about me with a put downish mentality behind my back

For someone your age that's sad

Put downish? Sorry about that. I never meant that. I however mentioned you here and not behind your back. I don't know your name or anything to talk about about you behind your back. I can see that you are actually the younger man. Only a young man can be quoting such ridiculously high figures as being required to run a police department of a small state.

demstone:
MY DEAR BRODA !!!
DATS WHY I SAID RE BRANDING

ABACHA BOY OBI NOW "BILLIONAIRE SAINT OBI"

WHAT MONEY CNT DO MORE MONEY WILL DO ..

WHILE JAGABAN HAS REBANDED TOO..

HE IS NO LONGER DAT UR SAVIOUR DAT U WOULD FIRST UNALIVE B4 REALISING UR MISTAKE

TINUBU IS D DEFINITION OF " STREET WISE"

TRUST ME MKO, PA ALFRED REWANE, KEN SARO WIWA KUDIRAT ABIOLA , AWOLOWO WOULD B PROUD OF HIM

COS MAN MUST WISE-UP

IMAGINE!!! UNAH WAN CHOP 3 GENERATION..

OBI HAS COLLECTED HIS INHERITANCE FROM ABACHA ALREADY..

OBI WLD B LIKE AWOLOWO

HE WLD TRY TRY ND TRY BUT HE NO GO REACH DERE

BUT ONE DAY A SOUTHEAST BOY GO ACHIEVE AM WITH LITTLE EFFORT

You don't have to be President to leave a mark. Awo led the country along with Gowon after which he voluntarily resigned. He was the main person in that government. Therefore saying Awo never reached there is not correct. He created more states for the minorities and co-led a team that fought war without borrowing money. That government did not do badly and if you support a government then that is your government. Can you say Ahmadu Bello never reached there?

nairalanda1:
A state police to work well as you would want it to would cost far far more than that, young man.

Far far more.

You got to pay for good police stations, good police cars...not a hilux, a proper police car, you got to pay for better weapons, not just assault weapons, and you got to pay for a host of other things...like good detention facilities, and good enough forensic and training facilites.

It all adds up. A lot

You also need to fund a marine wing, find money for drones and helicopters, and so forth.

State police costs money. A lot of money.

How old are you that you are calling me a young man? I am 46.
I am talking mainly about operations cost and not establishment cost which is a one off. One year operations cost will be more than enough as establishment cost. Lagos state police will never need more than 500 billion naira a year if up to that and the majority of expenses will be salaries. How much is even the budget of the NPF and the army with their high number of personnel?

Start with how much is the budget of even the Nigerian army and divide it by twenty

demstone:
IRRESPECTIVE OF WHOM D CANDIDATE IS 2027 WOULD B A REFLECTION OF WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPNING IN LAGOS FROM 1999 TO 2023.

IT WLD ONLY REVEAL "ON A NATIONAL SCALE" D PARTICULAR SINGLE REGION DAT GENUINELY HATES TINUBU

EVEN IF JAGABAN BUILDS ALL DERE ROADS , MAKES DERE SONS CHIEF OF AIR STAFF ND D MOST JUICY MINISTER OF WORKS ,,
HE WLD STRUGGLE DERE

IT IS WHAT IT IS

Who hates Tinubu? SE? They don't hate Tinubu but only want an Igbo to be President. No Governor has favoured Igbos more than Tinubu when he was Governor.

SmartPolician:
Olanipekan is criticising the same faulty constitution he has made a lot of money from defending politicians in court 😀😀😀

Naija na real cruise country.

Who made that constitution? Can real people make a constitution that gives the same representation to Kano and Ekiti state? Nigeria can not be run on taxes for five years with that constitution still in place

WizardOfNG:
You always come out with ludicrous figures and claims to support your viewpoints I believe you adopt dogmatically rather than objectively.

If the 2026 budget for the NPF is #1.31 trillion Naira, where do you get your ludicrous #20 trillion Naira "annually" you claim Nigerian States need to fund State-controlled police forces?

You make sense sometime but are difficult to take seriously because your arguments sometimes appears driven by your emotions and sentiments rather than cold facts and verified statistics as the case will always be for those dispassionately objective.

I wanted to tell him the same thing

Lagos does not need more than 50k police to start with and total salary can't exceed 200 billion naira per annum. 50k assault rifles is less than 50 billion and you can't use ammo of 50 billion naira a year. Total 300 billion naira. Other expenses are not much. Even if you need armoured cars, you won't need much

Putinofrussia:
Tinubu won a total of three states across the North East and North West regions. Specifically, he won two states in the North West (Jigawa and Zamfara) and one state in the North East (Borno) but he is going to do better in the two regions in 2027.
He is sure to clear the North Central with a landslide.

Tinubu seem to be in a pact with the sponsors of bandits killing Nigerians at will. Do you know who is next to be killed? It might be you or your loved ones. The reforms he made can not be reversed. It may therefore be better to seek a deal with another person in case Nigeria does not break up.

HardMirror:
J of cos it is only transatlantic slavery you want to talk about. The slavery within Africa is none of your business. The slavery carried out by African kings to the extent that thousands were used for human sacrifice is none of your business. Or has the oba of Benin apologized for the slaves they used for human sacrifices? You only care when it involves white people because they are the only ones willing to apologize

Where were thousands of people used for human sacrifice? How many people will then remain to be taxed?

Svoboda:
It should be majority of afro Cubans and not Cubans.

Almost everybody in the Americas have red Indian, European and African ancestry

He will win when his NSA was caught sending unknown gunmen to Nigerian forests as vigilantes amidst deadly bandit attacks. Unknown gunmen who are not local people

DoTheNeedful:
Many of you lack the proper understanding of Nigerian politics. There is no way Obi/Kwankwaso defeat Tinubu in a two-way match-up. I could bet everything I have in this world on this.

If you didn't know, Nigeria's elections have historically been driven by ethnicity and religion before any other thing like economy, security and so on. The Northerners complaining about Tinubu are doing so mainly because they want power back in the North. Their seeming opposition to Tinubu is not sincere. If for some reason it's a two-way match-up between Tinubu and Obi, you would be surprised at how they would vote for Tinubu en-masse.

If you doubt the place of ethnicity/religion in our politics, why are most every Igbo/Southerner rooting for Obi/Kwankwanso and the Northerners are rooting for Atiku/Obi? Tinubu (a Muslim) in 2023 ran with a Muslim to entice the North to vote for him. This is Nigeria! It is what it is!

The ticket I feel strongly that could defeat Tinubu is Atiku/Obi. No other combination would do it.

Why only Atiku/Obi? Why not Kwankwanso/Obi? What makes Atiku better than Kwankwanso?

Svoboda:
And they all claimed Yoruba ancestry?

The majority of Cubans will of course have Yoruba ancestry because the Yoruba have been there for centuries but it is not by ancestry alone. They are more Yoruba than the people in west Africa. It is culture that makes a people and not DNA.