₦airaland Forum

Nexus25:
Tinubu will win Oyo state hands down, there's no contest in that. However, that of Folarin is a tall order.

Makinde will be reelected.

I concur with you

walefresh3:
Dis coming election tinubu don already win 11 states
State like

Lagos
Ogun
Oyo
Osun
Ondo
Ekiti
Kwara
Kogi
Niger
Benue and edo

Remove Niger, Benue & Edo from that list

garfield1:
Pdp has always won plateau while apc gets 40%.it will still continue

Garfield1 not with a Muslim Muslim ticket cos APC might not get 25%

WhizdomXX:
The top dislike for Okowa in the Delta Central region is PDP's undoing. But many don't know Obi either. Plateau is PDP's to lose.

PETER OBI IS STRONGER IN PLATEAU THAN ENUGU AS AT TODAY. APC MIGHT NOT GET 25% IN PLATEAU IF MUSLIM MUSLIM TICKET IS CONFIRMED AND THAT COULD BE TRUE FOR TARABA STATE AS WELL

WhizdomXX:
Both Kwankwaso and Obi put together will 30% vote {± 5%} in the election. That's enough to come a close second. If the apc fails in the northwest. Obi will be seated President on May 29th. This election depends on one thing the performance of the three top candidates in the northwest.

Peter Obi can't win on the 1st ballot. His best chance is runoff. I say this cos I don't see his alliance with Kwankwaso if it becomes reality getting 25% in 24 states of the federation

garfield1:
I don't see obi winning delta.he can only win delta north not central or south.okowa is running mate so he will deliver delta.atiku highest vote should be delta..I dont see him winning any other state here but he will get 25%.obi will do well in north central esp in abuja,plateau Benue. But apc will win narrowly

I don't see Peter Obi getting 24% in Delta. Even in Delta north he can't get pass 30%, Delta central not more than 10% and same with Delta south. I believe things would change once final list of Vice president are made

CutieKing:
We will continue this discussion next time...
Take care

Nice 1. Next time

garfield1:
With this,tinubu wins the north narrowly.a win in the south west is enough to get him to aso villa

Na you dey make that final conclusion. I have told you that TINUBU is not defeating Atiku in the North. Go thru the analysis again. You can make your own judgement

CutieKing:
Which structure does atiku get ??.
Jumping from one party to another is your own definition of structure??.
So all of a sudden,buhari no longer matter again because he is not contesting?
Hmmmm....so much for a master analyst.
Since governors are politically useless, do we now say osun gov will lose his election and tinubu a southerner will win in Southern states of enugu,abia,cross river,akwa ibom,rivers and delta??.

Make una dey analyse with sense nah..haba!!!.

Nobody has said Buhari doesn't matter. Did Buhari matter in any APC Primaries in 2023? E go shock you guys. Brother nobody is saying governors don't matter. It depends on the state and the dynamics. Like in the core north no PDP Governor could stand firm and criticize Buhari if he/she intends to win election etc. There is limitation to the influence of a governor in presidential election depending on the dynamics. Eg in 2023 a PDP Governor in the SW can't be seen as strongly opposing Tinubu if he/she wants to be re_elected etc

CutieKing:
Lol....don't tell me you are putting atiku side by side with buhari...
Pdp won north in 99,2003,2007 and partly in 2011 solely because they had majority states under pdp.
Buhari is a grassroot politician with cult like followers whereas same can't be said about atiku.
Infact RMK get political structure than atiku.
You are still playing tribal politics,e go clear for your eyes that atiku is a paper weight politician that can't move any vote with his name.

Suit yourself. Only a fool would compare Buhari to Atiku. Kwankwaso get political structure pass Atiku? Enjoy yourself. Even Buhari doesn't have Atiku political structure. Try and understand TERMINOLOGIES BEFORE USING THEM. POPULARITY IS DIFFERENT FROM STRUCTURE

CutieKing:
Some of you making permutations based on Atiku being a northerner... e go shock you how he will be roundly defeated in that same north.why would apc governors want to lose their states because of atiku?.what would be their reward if pdp win the election?.you think they don't still have political career ahead of them?.why is nobody talking about buhari effect even when he is still alive and a sitting president?.
I will start taking you serious when apc governors start decamping to pdp.
As for Obi and others,either they forge any alliance or go solo,it's all pdp loss and apc advantage.

What was the effect of PDP Northern governors when Buhari was contesting since 2003 in the North? You put narratives that suit you.

Of course governors would have effect but to what extent? What effect is the governor of plateau going to bring etc what effect is Makinde going to give PDP? There is limitation

garfield1:
No.Borno will always give more votes than yobe so both can't be 60%..APC is looking more formidable in Adamawa with the addition of the nyarko's and Elisha abbo...
Atiku failed to get 25% in gombe in 2019 something pdp always gets.it will take a miracle for him to win esp with senator goje not defecting

Who made Goje? Watch out. I await your NW analysis in percentage terms. Then we do Osun gubernatorial to know who is a better analyst

garfield1:
With a little adjustments in borno,Adamawa and gombe,it's another narrow victory for APC.left with north central

LOL. Adjustment that suit your talking point.

majole:
NOTED. WE MOVE TO NC

Based on elections held today and pending NNPP/LP ALLIANCE

NORTH CENTRAL
1. PLATEAU
APC 30% PDP 35% OTHERS 35%
2. NASSARAWA
APC 35% PDP 35% OTHERS 30%
3. BENUE
APC 30% PDP 40% OTHERS 30%
4. KOGI
APC 45% PDP 40% OTHERS 15%
5. KWARA
APC 55% PDP 40% OTHERS 5%
6. NIGER
APC 40% PDP 45% OTHERS 10%
7. ABUJA
APC 30% PDP 30% OTHERS 40%

garfield1:
Adamawa
Apc 35% pdp 50% others 15%

Taraba apc 33% pdp 47% others 20%

Gombe
Apc 45% pdp 40% others 15%

Bauchi apc 35% pdp30% others 35%

Yobe apc 60% pdp 25% others 15%

Borno apc 70% pdp 20% others 10%

NOTED. WE MOVE TO NC

SamuelAnyawu:
Lol Bros take am easy. I stay in Borno and still here presently. You see the Northern permutation? It’s very hard to predict.

Do not assume APC will not win any northern state. I repeat do not assume

I concur with your statement. There are 19 northern states

garfield1:
With this,its a narrow apc win na.same thing I was saying...let's have north east...

I don't think the alliance between nnpp/lp will work sha

NORTH EAST IF ELECTIONS ARE HELD TODAY PENDING FINAL OUTCOME OF APC VICE & NNPP/LP ALLIANCE

1. YOBE
APC 60% PDP 30% OTHERS 10%
2. BORNO
APC 60% PDP 30% OTHERS 10%
3. ADAMAWA
APC 32% PDP 58% OTHERS 10%
4. TARABA
APC 32% PDP 58% OTHERS 10%
5. BAUCHI
APC 35% PDP 45% OTHERS 20%
6. GOMBE
APC 40% PDP 50% OTHERS 10%

garfield1:
With this,its a narrow apc win na.same thing I was saying...let's have north east...

I don't think the alliance between nnpp/lp will work sha

After you or you want me to go 1st?

NaughtyBrainiac:
The Alliance will never work because Kwankwaso can NEVER be Peter Obi's Vice. Kwankwaso is bigger than Obi.

And you know Obi won't turn down VP in PDP oy to accept VP in NNPP. More so, the whole Obi noise will die if he accepts a VP position.

I am suspecting a last minute alliance of APC and NNPP or PDP and NNPP (depending on the terms that favour Kwankwaso).

Both Kwankwaso and Obi cannot win a National Election but they can spoil things

Makes sense

NaughtyBrainiac:
Put whatever percentages you like together!

What I know is that Northerners are the biggest beneficiaries of ONE NIGERIA and the single most important factor that threatens the existence of One Nigeria is power not shifting to the South.

You think the Northern APC Governors were foolish to have supported Tinubu?

Tinubu is the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Everyone should start preparing for life with Tinubu as president!

BTW, that Man called Obi and his supporters will make things easier for Tinubu by spoiling things for Atiku in the SE and SS.

NOTED

garfield1:
Give us your own for northwest first.

This is my presidential percentage as at today. Once proper Vice for APC & NNPP ALLIANCE is known things would change & I prefer you put yours in percentage terms
1. Kaduna
APC 38% PDP 37% others 25%
2. Katsina
APC 40% PDP 30% others 30%
3. Kano
APC 24% PDP 25% Others 51%
4. Jigawa
APC 30% PDP 30% Others 40%
5. Sokoto
APC 35% PDP 52% others 13%
6. Kebbi
APC 40% PDP 50% Others 10%
7. Zamfara
APC 50% PDP 35% Others 15%

garfield1:
Oga stick to your north.they are just two voting blocs in the south.those that vote pdp in ss/se and those that vote apc in sw

You just started following Politics yesterday

garfield1:
I am talking about southerners that were adopted as northern consensus

My brother we fit get political strategy office like David plouffe/Axelrod and deliver/produce some excellent leaders for our Country

garfield1:
Yes though kwankwaso might still win here

WOW! NICE ONE GARDIELD1

garfield1:
This is highly childish.is it possible for a human being to get all his predictions right? Even prophets and pastors with spiritual powers get it wrong.the major thing is most of my predictions are usually correct,85% rate.how many predictions have you gotten boy? Why not give us your own predictions for north west and stop the hatred

You started crying already. Lol. You always insist that you get it right in your analysis. You hardly entertain any analysis that doesn't fit your analysis. If you want competition on electoral predictions then let's start with Osun gubernatorial and percentage range for the 2 major parties

garfield1:
Don't mind that boy.we go school him

School me after producing victory for Mascot Kalu & Andy Obi.

WhizdomXX:
I had this believe that the core north see themselves as one. Yoruba giving vpslot to a minority? You mean Jonathan of then? But yorubas had no major role in Jonathan's selection as running mate to Yaradua.

It was a grammatical error. I wanted to say why is it that when it goes South, it is the Yoruba that want it? It is the same when it comes North it is the Fulani/Hausa that claim it. They North is not one and the South is not one. In fact there are voting blocks that are up to 6 in the North and more than 5 in the South

CallYeNot:
You've been spilling nonsense ever since.

If you're in the North like you claim, you should know that Northerners want Tinubu.

Rest.

SCARY! QUE MIEDO

garfield1:
Obj was northern consensus in 1999,gej in 2011,buhari in 2015 and 2015.

Garfield1. What happened to the other years?
Who are those who issue the Northern consensus? Why are you answering questions that are not directed at you? Why didn't you answer it correctly? Go and read it again and respond if you want to

garfield1:
I cannot hang myself for any politician young boy...

But if I may,let me hazard something...

Sokoto
Pdp 500,00
Apc 409,000
Nnpp 250,000

Kebbi
Pdp 300,000
Apc 300,000
Nnpp 100,000

Zamfara
Pdp 200,000
Apc 450,000
Pdp 150,000

Katsina
Apc 1 million
Pdp 500,000
Nnpp 300000

Kano
Pdp 400,000
Apc 600,000
Nnpp 1.2 million

Kaduna
Pdp 500,000
Apc 550,000
Nnpp 250,000

Jigawa
Pdp 200,000
Apc 350,000
Nnpp 400,000


That is for northwest.I'll go to northeast later

Well you don't want to hang yourself. I rest my case. Dreaming is allowed.
As someone said he is still waiting for your APC TO WIN ANAMBRA GUBERNATORIAL 2021 & ABA FED HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES BY-ELECTION 2021

WhizdomXX:
In the senate I believe pdp may flip most seats but still lose at the Presidency.

APC is not winning they northern votes in the presidential election. Get that. When you go out ask core northerners who they would vote for and judge by yourself

WhizdomXX:
Partly yes, thank you. Why won't a kanuri aspire to be in power like a fulani?

Nobody stops them from aspiring. It's winning the votes of Hausa/Fulani that is the problem. Why did Yoruba give the VP slot to a southern minority? Everything that goes south, they Yorubas want it for themselves and when it goes north, they HAUSA/FULANI want it for themselves