₦airaland Forum

senatordave1:
Atiku won't see 10% in yobe.

Funny guy. E go shock you. Na BVA time. We go know the truth in 6 weeks

senatordave1:
They could.they got it in orlu and okigwe where they are strong

This senatordave1 abi na Garfield1 go soon change his name to speakerdave1. There is no need discussing politics with him. He never accepts any contrary opinion to his own. We shall see in 6 weeks. Tinubu won't get more votes than Atiku in any SS/SE state maybe only Edo

Excellent analysis. I concur 100%

Trollronaldo:
1. Lagos - Tinubu
No one will be able to beat Lagos because it's his base, he may not win with a very big margin but he will win Lagos.

2. Kano - Kwankwaso
This is kwankwaso's base, he's very popular here and he has cult of fol2 in this state. I doubt if anyone can beat him here, even if he doesn't win any other state, kwankwaso will most likely win here.

3. Kaduna - to close to call
Has to be between Tinubu or Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi will also get a lot of votes here.

4. Rivers - Peter Obi
There's no doubt Peter Obi will win here. He's too popular to lose even the PDP structure cannot really do much to stop him since BVAS is available.

5. Katsina--to close to call
Atiku and Tinubu will mostly win but kwankwaso will also do well.

6. Delta - Peter Obi
Peter Obi will win here, the people here are seriously against Okowa. This place is like Rivers and okowa may garner many votes for Atiku but it won't be enough to win the states. If this election was to be happening before the introduction of BVAS, PDP would have all it takes to rig the state for Atiku.

7. Oyo- Tinubu
The Yoruba factor will give Tinubu the win here.

8. Benue - Peter obi
Peter Obi is extremely popular here. PDP or APC may win the governorship seat but Peter Obi is too popular here for Atiku and Tinubu to win. And they don't want anything to do with Fulanis, which is the minus for Atiku. Tinubu is not very popular in this state.

9. Bauchi - Atiku
This is a strong PDP state, has huge Fulani/Hausa population, everything is in place for Atiku here.

10. Anambra - Peter Obi
Well, is this not obvious?

Very good analysis but Delta would likely go to Atiku/PDP & Also you never know how Benue would vote. Remember in 2019 we taught Buhari won't get 25% in Benue but ended up almost winning getting over 48%[/color][color=#006600]

Trollronaldo:
1. Lagos - Tinubu
No one will be able to beat Lagos because it's his base, he may not win with a very big margin but he will win Lagos.

2. Kano - Kwankwaso
This is kwankwaso's base, he's very popular here and he has cult of fol2 in this state. I doubt if anyone can beat him here, even if he doesn't win any other state, kwankwaso will most likely win here.

3. Kaduna - to close to call
Has to be between Tinubu or Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi will also get a lot of votes here.

4. Rivers - Peter Obi
There's no doubt Peter Obi will win here. He's too popular to lose even the PDP structure cannot really do much to stop him since BVAS is available.

5. Katsina--to close to call
Atiku and Tinubu will mostly win but kwankwaso will also do well.

6. Delta - Peter Obi
Peter Obi will win here, the people here are seriously against Okowa. This place is like Rivers and okowa may garner many votes for Atiku but it won't be enough to win the states. If this election was to be happening before the introduction of BVAS, PDP would have all it takes to rig the state for Atiku.

7. Oyo- Tinubu
The Yoruba factor will give Tinubu the win here.

8. Benue - Peter obi
Peter Obi is extremely popular here. PDP or APC may win the governorship seat but Peter Obi is too popular here for Atiku and Tinubu to win. And they don't want anything to do with Fulanis, which is the minus for Atiku. Tinubu is not very popular in this state.

9. Bauchi - Atiku
This is a strong PDP state, has huge Fulani/Hausa population, everything is in place for Atiku here.

10. Anambra - Peter Obi
Well, is this not obvious?

Very good analysis but Delta would likely go to Atiku/PDP & Also you never know how Benue would vote. Remember in 2019 we taught Buhari won't get 25% in Benue but ended up almost winning getting over 48%

Of course only God can stop him just as only GOD can stop others

Free them before the next government. Disgusting

Workch:
While I agree that he can hold grassroots mobilization programs and town hall meetings to at least get some votes, northwest and northeast is a total waste of time to invest in for labour party. The reasons are very Obvious:

1. They are islamocentric, they will most likely vote a fellow Muslim. They have been doing that since time immemorial. No Christian has ever Done well in northwest and northeast except Southern Kaduna and Taraba and some part of Adamawa. The only time they voted a Christian was in 1999 when there was no Muslim on the ballot.

2. They have this irrational igbophobia. It's quite unfortunate but it's the reality. Theze regions are not ready to accept any Igbo man or anybody from southsouth. Even Jonathan couldn't win these regions.

3. They have herd mentality, they are the most gullible, easiest to control and will listen to their elites against logic and reason. There's no amount of logical reason you can give an average person from Borno state to vote Peter Obi. It's the truth.

Peter Obi should not bother wasting scarce resources here. The formula here already suggested splitting votes, these regions are never going to give block votes in 2023. The best thing that can ever happen to Obi is for kwankwaso to do very well here so we Obidients can nail the coffins of APC and PDP in Northcentral and Southern Nigeria.

Stop bothering yourself about Obi’s campaign in Northwest and northeast, bother yourself about how kwankwaso is performing there. If Kwankwaso can do well in northwest and northeast, we can deal with PDP and APC in southsouth, Southeast, north central and become scoend in southwest to have a chance in the rerun.

In the election rerun, if it will be between Atiku and Obi, Obi will win him.

Excellent analysis 100%. Is only the rerun part where you said Peter Obi would best Atiku that is the problem. Lets see how it goes

babasolution:
Can this attitude not be changed?

Very difficult. Only Fulanis can make them change

babasolution:
The middlebelt of Nigeria has always been on the sidelines and especially under the cloak of the Fulani north.

My postulation is that isn't the time not right for the middlebelt to create it's political party,must the middle belt keep aligning with the Fulani north or south who have no interest in their well being.

How many federal projects have been placed in states like plateau, kogi,Benue,southern Kaduna,taraba,nasarawa etc,only NIger and Kwara which have Fulani affiliation enjoy federal projects.

The south also do not care much about the middlebelt, they see middlebeltans as poor uncivilised people and look down on us.

The middlebelt as the number and political weight to usurp elections in Nigeria,I think it's time the Middlebelt finds a magic bullet to coordinating our political ambitions by forming a middlebeltan focused political party instead of relying in the PDP which is south focused and APC which is Fulani north ,southwest focused.

The middlebelt should stop playing second fiddle in Nigeria.

Just take a look on how the tivs have been turned to idp's,the murders and genocide in southern Kaduna.

Middlebelt as related tribes,it's time to put difference aside and find a common ground,our region is the most underdeveloped in Nigeria, we have always had poor leadership and have been neglected by FG.

It's time to rise, the era of complacency is over.

The plateau,Benue,nasarawa,kogi,taraba,southern Kaduna,Niger let's do this one

They have different political views. Long throats. They follow money easily that's why Tinubu didn't even consider them. We get VERY LONG THROAT. We lack political ideology. We like fighting ourselves. We pull one another down

garfield1:
Kano election results

Kwankwaso 50%
Tinubu 30%
Atiku 17%
Obi 3%

You are gradually coming to terms with reality cos 6 months ago you would have given Tinubu 50% in Kano. I say Tinubu gets 24.9% in Kano

Hoelujohn:
Shey you dey whine us ni? Tinubu will get like 37% -42% max

Stop it. Its not funny. Grow up

Workch:
See, my best friend is a Yoruba guy in Lagos. For the fact, him and his family are not voting for Tinubu. We were together on the first, he was so talking down Tinubu, him, his brothers and mother. They from Ogun state, funny enough, this family supported Buhari. They have become very disappointed in APC. Their choice for APC is Osinbajo, they don't like Tinubu at all hence they see Obi as an option because he's a Christian.
My neighbor who's a yoruba man, he always tell me that we should vote for Peter Obi.
This is not to say Tha majority of Yorubas are not going to vote for Tinubu but many of them are not going to vote for him as well, you can't force them to unless you convince them otherwise that's Tinubu is not a criminal.

A lot of people are not buying this tribal sentiment

Then that is a big problem for Tinubu. If Yorubas don't vote for Tinubu it would be because of his HEALTH

JoeNL22:
Point of correction.
Obi is 90% se, 80% ss.
Tinubu will get 50%, obi 40%, Atiku 10%.

This guy you are unserious. Political amateur, I used to be one in my early 20s

garfield1:
Obi is sure of getting at least 70& from his se and 40% from ss.I know tinubu will win south west but will it reach 70%?


Mynd44
Legendhero
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod

I say 65% is likely. That's becos he can't get more than 60% in Lagos which would reduce his margins in the zone

garfield1:
The poll in nc is done only in fct benue and plateau.
Abokis dont like atiku,they prefer kwankwaso. Majority of niger people are gwari and nupe not hausas.tinubu largest crowd was in niger,the support was overwhelming.pdp is weak in niger,they don't have popular people go canvass votes for atiku.apc owns the state...
Tinubu will do well in benue,plateau but obi won't see votes in kwara,niger

Why don't we form a whatsapp group for the 2023 elections? Email me your number or give me your email so i can send me number. It's easier on whatsapp. I hardly know when to reply here: maajimaaji@yahoo.com

garfield1:
I think not.with kwankwaso in play and obi cornering northern Christian votes and with atiku losing out in ss/se,tinubu just needs to get 30% in the north alongside 60% in the sw.if tinubu gets 30% atiku 35% kwankwaso 25% obi 10%,it will be ok.if tinubu gets 35%,atiku 40% kwankwaso 20%,its still ok provided atiku does not beat tinubu by more than 10%.worst case scenario should be tinubu 30% atiku 40% kwankwaso 20% or tinubu 30% kwankwaso 40%, atiku 25%.but he must get 60% in sw and defeat atiku in the north central and as it stands,atiku has lost the north central yo obi and tinubu.its now left for tinubu to win one of ne/nw or if possible win both or lose narrowly while staying close to atiku in se/ss...


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Mukina2
Nplfmod
Noethnicity
Kyase
Majole
Immaculatejoe
Penguin2
Ojiofor
Murphyibiam
Pakute
Osunoriginal
Omonnakoda
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Arewanorth
Ttalk
Ityp
Benuejosh
Oghenaogie

YOU TRY FOR THIS ANALYSIS BUT YOU STILL SPOIL AM WHEN YOU STARTED SAYING MR A HAS LOST ZONE C ETC. LET BVAS/NIGERIANS DECIDE

Who is Bianca in politics? Peter Obi doen't need Bianca to win 70% of the votes in Anambra

IGoComotYaTeeth:
FCT:
Obi 46%
Atiku 38%
Tinubu 16%

Lagos:
Tinubu: 51%
Obi: 32%
Atiku: 17%

Rivers:
Atiku: 50%
Obi: 38%
Tinubu: 12%

Kano:
Tinubu: 32%
Atiku: 28%
Kwankwaso: 26%
Obi: 14%

Anambra:
Atiku: 49%
Obi: 42%
Tinubu: 9%

Niger:
Tinubu: 43%
Atiku: 38%
Obi: 19%

Plateau:
Obi: 47%
Atiku: 36%
Tinubu: 17%

Osun:
Tinubu: 36%
Atiku: 33%
Obi: 31%

Oyo:
Tinubu: 45%
Obi: 29%
Atiku: 26%

Bayelsa:
Atiku: 43%
Obi: 35%
Tinubu: 22%

Borno:
Atiku: 41%
Tinubu: 36%
Obi: 23%

Ekiti:
Tinubu: 37%
Atiku: 32%
Obi: 31%

Katsina:
Tinubu: 46%
Atiku: 39%
Obi: 15%

Edo:
Obi: 39%
Atiku: 31%
Tinubu: 30%

Taraba:
Atiku: 48%
Obi: 44%
Tinubu: 8%

Adamawa:
Atiku: 58%
Obi: 25%
Tinubu: 17%

Jigawa:
Atiku: 54%
Tinubu: 27%
Obi: 19%

Delta:
Atiku: 43%
Obi: 37%
Tinubu: 20%

Benue:
Atiku: 41%
Obi: 38%
Tinubu: 21%

Nasarawa:
Tinubu: 39%
Atiku: 33%
Obi: 28%

Enugu:
Obi: 49%
Atiku: 38%
Tinubu: 13%

Akwa Ibom:
Atiku: 41%
Tinubu: 39%
Obi: 20%

Kaduna:
Tinubu: 34%
Obi: 26%
Atiku: 25%
Kwankwaso: 15%

Sokoto:
Atiku: 45%
Tinubu: 34%
Obi: 21%

Kwara:
Tinubu: 49%
Obi: 30%
Atiku: 21%

Imo:
Obi: 41%
Atiku: 36%
Tinubu: 25%

Abia:
Obi: 48%
Atiku: 46%
Tinubu: 6%

Cross River:
Atiku: 45%
Obi: 42%
Tinubu: 13%

Zamfara:
Tinubu: 48%
Atiku: 36%
Obi: 16%

Ebonyi:
Obi: 47%
Atiku: 39%
Tinubu: 14%

Kogi:
Tinubu: 41%
Atiku: 33%
Obi: 26%

Yobe:
Tinubu: 52%
Atiku: 38%
Obi: 10%

Ogun:
Tinubu: 42%
Obi: 32%
Atiku: 26%

Kebbi:
Atiku: 51%
Tinubu: 32%
Obi: 17%

Ondo:
Atiku: 38%
Tinubu: 36%
Obi: 26%

Bauchi:
Tinubu: 43%
Atiku: 37%
Obi: 20%

Gombe:
Tinubu: 48%
Atiku: 39%
Obi: 13%

My Truthful Prediction, hopefully it doesn't come to pass

I never see this kind analysis. Extremely poor. Reorganise again

ggood:
I was in the North last week, I can tell you Authoritatively that the south is more populated than the North. I traveled to Niger State , ADamawa , Gombe and Borno State and I was surprised that all these States have Empty land with no inhabitants . In Niger State , Borno State and ADamawa State you Will travel for seven hours without sighting any village settlement , what you will see is Farmers and Fulani Headers. I still wonder where the North manufacture their vote from.

YOU WILL KNOW VERY SOON. THANK GOD FOR BVAS

Starcrest1:
Yes mark my words. They will think it's business as usual and thumbprint to fill the ballot box not knowing that things has changed.

And the result, when number of votes > number of accredited voters = cancellation.

Even most urchins don't know this, that's why they are hoping on rigging.

You are sentimental/bias. Rigging is more pronounced in the SS/SE. In the North is mostly Borno/Yobe. With BVAS we shall know the true voters. No bias attached

Jorussia:
I was among those who opposed Tinubu emergence as the candidate of APC because of same faith ticket. However, i think he has been able to allay the fears of many Christian leaders and followers, this is
no longer trending in d media.APC structure is the states i mentioned will give him 25% votes.

PDP structures in the south would give them 25% in all the states there too right? Think before you type Bro

garfield1:
South east
Abia
Apc 20%
Pdp 25%
Lp 55%
Nnpp 0%

Enugu
Apc 15%
Pdp 20%
Lp 65%

IMO
Apc 25%
Pdp 20%
Lp 55%
Nnpp 0

Ebonyi
Apc 30%
Pdp 20%
Lp 50%

Anambra
Apc 5%
Pdp 5%
Lp 90%

South south
Crs
Apc 33%
Pdp 33
Lp 33

Akwa ibom
Apc 25%
Pdp 45%
Lp 30%


Rivers
Apc 25%
Pdp 20%
Lp 55%
Nnpp 0%

Bayelsa
Apc 40%
Pdp 45%
Lp 15%

Delta
Apc 25%
Pdp 45%
Lp 30%

Edo
Apc 30%
Pdp 20%
Lp 50%

South west
Lagos
Apc 50%
Pdp 15%
Lp 35%

Ogun
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Lp 10%

Osun
Apc 60%
Pdp 35%
Lp 5%

Ondo
Apc 60%
Pdp 25%
Lp 15%

Ekiti
Apc 80%
Pdp 15%
Lp 5%

Oyo
Apc 55%
Pdp 30%
Lp 15%

North central
Benue
Apc 30%
Pdp 25%
Lp 45%

Plateau
Apc 30%
Pdp30%
Lp 40%

Nasarawa
Apc 33%
Pdp 33%
Lp 33%

Kogi
Apc 50%
Pdp 30%
Lp 18%
Nnpp 2&

Niger
Apc 45%
Apc 30%
Nnpp 20%
Lp 5%

Kwara
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Lp 10%

North west
Sokoto
Apc 40%
Pdp 45%
Nnpp 15%
Lp 0%

Zamfara
Apc 65%
Pdp 25%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 0%

Kebbi
Apc 45%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 15%
Lp 5%

Katsina
Apc 40%
Pdp 40%
Nnpp 20%

Kaduna
Apc 35%
Pdp 20%
Lp 25%
Nnpp 10%

Jigawa
Apc 40%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 25%
Lp 0%

Kano
Apc 30%
Pdp 20%
Nnpp 45%
Lp% 5

North east
Borno
Apc 80%
Pdp 10%
Nnpp 10
Lp 0

Yobe
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 0%

Gombe
Apc 40%
Pdp 35%
Lp 15%
Nnpp 10%

Bauchi
Apc 32%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 30%
Lp 3%

Taraba
Apc 30%
Pdp 45%
Lp 20%
Nnpp 5%

Adamawa
Apc 20%
Pdp 60%
Lp 15%
Nnpp 5%




Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Fergie001
Joenl22
Immaculatejoe

You are adjusting gradually but giving your APC decent numbers. This is way better than your blindfolded previous APC bias. You would get there as election appproaches. For your information Tinubu won't get 25% in any SS/SE states. With BVAS governors & politicians have little power_ how many votes can they buy? Watching

micellgevity:
Dangote's mother's father. Life becomes boring when all your friends are dead and your children no longer find you lively. The same thing happening to my old man.

Nope. He is Akiki Dangote's mother uncle aka Aliko granduncle

Aiel123:
Those states I highlighted are where I have issues.
Giving Tinubu 15% in Edo?
Even Kwara.
Tinubu doing 65% in SW states does not seem likely to me. Osun no way. Ondo to some extent. 60% percent upward but not exceeding 65 is what Tinubu will take in SW zones since Buhari did 55% and 57% in 2019/2015.
What are you reason for poor turnout in SE/SS?

They don't vote but only rant in the SS/SE. Renember results are normally written there and with BVAS they won't be able to write results. Look at the high turnout in Ekiti/Osun relative to the abysmal turnout in Anambra gubernatorial using BVAS. A state in the SE might not produce more votes than some HOR/senate districts in Jigawa

Aiel123:
Garfield1
Kyase
Majole1
Immaculatejoe
Come and see something strange oo
Kwara, Edo, Yobe, Zamfara...no go well.

To be sincere this analysis seems to be exactly where things stand right now. Its a BVAS election with minimal rigging. Turnout i see high turnout in SW/NC/NE/NW but poor turnout in SS/SE which is going to affect PO. I also believe Tinubu would do 65% in both Borno/Yobe. I also see Tinubu doing at least 65% in all SW states except for Lagos where he takes 55%. I believe Tinubu would do a bit worse in NW than this analysis says

garfield1:
Atiku can't win north central,he is not sure of any state.the only states he has slim chances are nasarawa and niger but it seems niger will go to tinubu and nasarawa is unclear...

Tinubu is sure of 70% in kwara,55% of niger,55% in kogi,30% in nasarawa, 25% in plateau,fct and benue.obi is sure of 55% of benue,40% of plateau,30% of nasarawa,30% of fct,15% of kogi,10% kwara,5% in niger..
Atiku is sure of 35% of niger,15% of kwara,30% of nasarawa,25% of fct,30% of kogi,25% of benue,30% of plateau...
Kwankwaso is sure of 3% in kwara,15% of niger,10% of nasarawa, 10% of fct,5% of plateau%,10% of kogi and 0% in benue ...

From the above,tinubu will win nc followed by obi.atiku will struggle with kwankwaso for the bottom pot...

Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Farano
Mukina2
Kyase
Aiel
Kwanza
Legendhero
Okoroawusa
Adegbaorogboye
Tutudesz
Ttalk
Ityp
Benuejosh
Omenka

NC IS A PURE TOSS_UP. ANY OF THE 3 LEADING CANDIDATES COULD WIN

garfield1:
Majority.at least 55% voted buhari,60% should go with tinubu

You go get sense after the elections

I have never seen a more useless write_up. Which state is Olu oluwa? Need to know how to communicate. Poor write_up

I am watching though i don't believe in polls in Nigeria. A lot of undecideds.
Peter Obi getting more votes in NW than Kwankwaso?

Just watching it for fun/idea

Just wait patiently your parcel will get to you using the address your friend sent it to. It might take 10 days. You could also check the post office in your state capital for faster collection