₦airaland Forum

There is always a First time. Amaechi just lost his 1st election

Forget 2007. Yaradua won't have defeated Buhari in Katsina if not for Rigging

garfield1:
Since he became governor,apc has won almost all polls in IMO.apc recently won in owerri axis that is dominated by APC.even rochas couldn't win there

Win which election in Owerri axis? Please tell us/show us

garfield1:
Kinematics,seanfer,chrixxx has better analysis of rivers politics but both candidates are from the ijaw\kalabari axis

Nothing concrete there. Just throwing jabs on the seat moving to riverine are. I prefer an analysis of how the 2 major parties stand since both are of Ijaw stock

garfield1:
Yes pdp knows that's why they are crying over his emergence and even went to court.they have also pushed aondoakaa to court..we dont know who tinubu is picking yet but I dont see how it will affect ortom

It would affect Ortom cos National legislators election is same day with Presidential. So if Tinubu chooses a Muslim, Bennett people would come out to vote against APC on that day and that would favor Ortom

garfield1:
Why you agree 100%? How can osun go pdp esp now that tinubu is APC candidate? Rivers at best is 50 50.

Osun go shock you when the time reach.
Rivers is going to be tough. That massive vote writing might be cancelled this time or better both parties would participate in it. Woke insult of a Traditional ruler & locking Dagogo would give APC advantages in those areas

garfield1:
Crs and one of delta, rivers aks

Garfield please you detailed analysis on Rivers gubernatorial as it stands today. You can break it by senatorial districts or whatsapp me +18687128380. Thanks

garfield1:
But buhari won Benue in 2015 and apc won guber there.buhari lost there by 8990 votes in 2019.father alia is the most popular person in Benue now, pdp has even taken him to court

Because of Rev. Alia, Ortom would loss the Senate seat but again cos of Muslim Muslim Tinubu ticket it might favour Ortom.

But on the gubernatorial it's a WALK OVER for Rev. Alia. It's not a contest

ikennaoma:
Thought u are a fantastic Analyst..
ABIA will go to labour party (Alex Oti)
IMO Election is 2024
Osun will go to PDP
Ekiti certainly will go to APC
Ebonyi will go APC cuz Dave is loved there
RIVERS will fall back to APC ( unless Wike uses The court to disqualify him)
Delta will be a close contest but PDP will have it's way
Kano obviously will go to NNPP

This guy you weigh bad. I concur 100% with you

This guy you are not serious. Aisha Yesufu?

garfield1:
If you smoke, dont feel that others do.this is highly childish and disappointing.I thought I was discussing with a sane,mature mind.is this how you are? If you disagree with me,can't you relate without invectives
Bauchi and kano has always voted for buhari or any party affiliated with buhari at federal levels.atiku is overrated,he is not as popular as buhari.there is a reason why there vote buhari and it is not just because he's a northerner or popular.atiku lacks those qualities.kwankwaso comes close.why is it that atiku cannot win the north east,why did he win only taraba and Adamawa narrowly? Why is it that he cannot dominate his region like tinubu? Why is it that tinubu defeated obj yet atiku cannot.atiku is overrated.politically,tinubu is better than him,has more men and resources nationally and will defeat atiku.the northerners are not blind voters as you think.they will not vote atiku the way you guys think...

My brother SW is one tribe. NE is over 50 tribes. YOBE/BORNO are no go area for any party that is not APC. BAUCHI is always Buhari.infact BAUCHI has voted for Buhari in percentage terms more than Katsina since 2013. So that leaves Atiku to fight in just 3 states in the NE hence you can't compare him to TINUBU SW. Yes Atiku might not be loved in the FULANI/HAUSA NORTH as BUHARI & KWANKWASO but don't think they would prefer TINUBU to him. Remember also that all those times Atiku was contesting Buhari was contesting too that's why. So 2023 is a different ball game. Remember that Atiku as Vice was able to garner a good chunk of votes in the Muslim north in 2003

garfield1:
If you smoke, dont feel that others do.this is highly childish and disappointing.I thought I was discussing with a sane,mature mind.is this how you are? If you disagree with me,can't you relate without invectives
Bauchi and kano has always voted for buhari or any party affiliated with buhari at federal levels.atiku is overrated,he is not as popular as buhari.there is a reason why there vote buhari and it is not just because he's a northerner or popular.atiku lacks those qualities.kwankwaso comes close.why is it that atiku cannot win the north east,why did he win only taraba and Adamawa narrowly? Why is it that he cannot dominate his region like tinubu? Why is it that tinubu defeated obj yet atiku cannot.atiku is overrated.politically,tinubu is better than him,has more men and resources nationally and will defeat atiku.the northerners are not blind voters as you think.they will not vote atiku the way you guys think...

Guy you dey carry this smoking thing too far. Is part of the fun to make the discussion entertaining. Sorry if you feel offended. Is just to say you completely get it wrong in that particular analysis

garfield1:
Apc has more chances in ebonyi compared to bauchi.there is a sitting governor who has done well and he has zoned the ticket to the north as required.the apc candidate is from izzi,the dominant clan in the north and one if the two dominant clans in ebonyi who are clamouring for the guber.the izzi people will naturally give their son nwifuru bloc votes.the pdp candidate sen ogba is from a minority in ebonyi central and central is dominated by the ezzas.most people in pdp are angry with ogba emergence..umahi is in control of ebonyi south so pdo has lost the state.it is no more a party battle but a tribal one...tinubu or atiku would not influence anything i n ebonyi.atiku will win ebonyi narrowly

In taraba,it is controlled tightly by t.y danjuma who goofed by zoning back power to taraba south where the incumbent is from.APC should have zoned power to taraba north or central but foolishly gave it to sen bwacha from taraba south

You really understand Ebonyi politics and your analysis is 99% but again it is SE where they are not used to opposition though Ebonyi has always had a strong opposition against the PDP in the past.

With respect to Taraba, TY Danjuma only determines what happens in the PDP but not general. His influence is Money & the fact that APC is seen as a Muslim party and have always given their ticket to Muslims in the past. For 2023 APC Candidate is a Christian from the same zone as the PDP candidate. Muslims would give APC Candidate 75% of their votes and since Senator Bwacha is a popular politician in his own right, he would likely get 35% of the Christian vote which would be enough to defeat PDP 50/49

garfield1:
Am only saying he gives one extra advantage when the election is stalemated

Now you are talking but that wasn't your initial statement from the beginning of the post. You dey try but places where you don't understand their politics then leave it like both parties would get at least 40% so that even if the other gets 59/40 you would still be right

garfield1:
Prp is even stronger than nnpp.atiku cannot win bauchi na.this is a place that gives buhari/apc bloc votes.its like saying because wike decamped to APC,rivers will go apc....atiku can only win northern states where pdp is solid like sokoto,kebbi,Kaduna,taraba etc...the argument that north will vote atiku because he's a northerner is faulty...even when buhari is not on the ballot,apc wins most polls in the north

When you stop smoking whatever you smoke for 1 week then come back & read what you write. BAUCHI & KANO ARE THE 2 MOST MATURED STATES IN NIGERIAN ELECTION. IF YOU ARE POPULAR YOU CAN WIN THERE.
BAUCHI WON'T VOTE TINUBU SAME WITH KANO. GO FIND OUT AFTER 1 WEEK OF ABSTINENCE

garfield1:
Am only saying that dogara will give sadiq the advantage.the ex governor was sabotaged in bauchi LGA across party lines.if dogara was in apc as of then,abdullahi would have won...again,there were big allegations that he is not from bauchi.these factors are no more there. Dogara LGA might be the tie breaker again..he won by 30000+

Dogara won his reelection 73k to 50k. Dogara might be the tie breaker but till then. I don't see him as too much of a factor in Bauchi

garfield1:
Yes,if he can win an incumbent,he too can lose as an incumbent

That's true but not because of Dogara

joyandfaith:
It depends on Tinubu running mate. Muslim-Muslim tickets will make things difficult for APC in SS/SE and Northern states of Nasarawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue and even Adamawa.
Protest votes.
Buhari presidency has caused division along religious and tribal lines. Tinubu will cause confusion along religious and tribal lines.

TELL THEM AGAIN

garfield1:
His failure is sure.those members that defected are those that joined with pdp to elect his stooge as a speaker.apc controls all the reps and senators.bauchi have always voted buhari and dogara is with apc

Buhari is not on the ballot. In 2019 Buhari got over 70% but the governor could not get 50% a more than 40% point swing in just 2 weeks same with Kano. Don't do any analysis thinking Buhari would be of Value cos he won't maybe just 5%.

Bauchi is 50/50 cos of Sadique clot. NNPP or PDP would win the Presidential there.

Ezmans:
APC I'll not win a single state in South East & south south

Garfield1 did quiet a good analysis. I believe Ebonyi looks 50/50 and might move slightly to PDP if Tinubu picks a Muslim Vice.

A lot of APC Candidates would avoid Tinubu like a plaque if he chooses a Muslim as Vice for them to win.
Taraba might go APC in Gubernatorial

garfield1:
Dogara stronghold are mainly bogoro and tafawa and they made bala governor.

Just one LGA & that's the person you are calling his name? Go find out about Bauchi elections. If the last governor from Bauchi metropolis an incumbent could be defeated in Bauchi what more of Sadique from Katagum axis? Sadique might win but not because of Dogara. Stop giving Dogara too much importance here. With what percent did he win reelection in 2019?

garfield1:
Taraba and plateau always give buhari45% so tinubu won't be different

What kind of always? Say in 2015 & 2019 cos before that he hardly got 25% in plateau in 2011. Let Tinubu name his vice & you would see how politicians would avoid him like a plaque

IamANigerianMan:
Op, your analysis is wrong, Taraba and Plateau vote on religious line.... They will never vote for ATIKU and TINUBU.. Obi will win in those two states

Garfield1 is talking of gubernatorial not the presidential race

garfield1:
No,cross rivet will fall.power is supposed to go back to the south but pdp zoned to the central while APC picked a popular person from the south.the governor will deliver the north for apc.even in the central,apc is strongest...

Same thing should happen in abia but apc is divided with two candidates...



Bala will find it hard to retain his seat.he won narrowly with the help of dogara and people in apc.dogara is now in apc and the party is united behind sadiq abubakar

Who is DOGARA in Bauchi politics? You don't know anything. Sadique might win but not because of Dogara. Sadique is not from Bauchi metropolis which is a disadvantage for him.

garfield1:
Cross river
Apc 200,000 pdp 250,000 lp 100_000
Akwa ibom pdp 300,000 apc 200,000 lp 100000
Rivers pdp 500,000 apc 200,000
Delta pdp 500,000 apc 300,000
Bayelsa pdp 150,000 apc 150000
Edo pdp 200000 apc 200000

Anambra lp 1 million pdp 200,000 apc 100000
Enugu lp 500000 pdp 200,000 apc 50000
IMO lp 500000 pdp 200,000 apc 200,000
Abia lp 400,000 pdp 150,000 apc 100,000
Ebonyi lp 300,000 pdp 100,000 apc 100,000

Lagos pdp 200,000 apc 600,000 lp 300,000
Ogun pdp 100,000 lp 100,000 apc 400,000
Ondo pdp 200,000 apc 400000
Osun pdp 300,000 apc 400000
Ekiti pdp 100,000 apc 250,000
Oyo pdp 450,000 apc 700000

Niger pdp,400,000 apc 600,000
Kwara pdp 100,000 apc 300,000
Nasarawa pdp 200,000 apc 200,000
Kogi pdp 200,000 apc 250000
Plateau pdp 400000 apc 400000
Benue pdp 300000 apc 300000
Abuja pdp 300,000 apc 250,000

Kano nnpp 1 mil pdp 400,000 apc 600,000
Katsina pdp 500,000 apc 1 mil
Kaduna pdp 700,000 apc ,700000
Sokoto pdp 500000 apc 400,000
Kebbi pdp 400,000 apc 600,000
Zamfara pdp 150,000 apc 350,000
Jigawa pdp 400,000 apc 500,000

Taraba pdp 400,000 apc 300,000
Adamawa pdp 500,009 apc 300,000
Gombe pdp 200000 apc 200000
Bauchi pdp 400,000 apc 550,000
Yobe pdp 200,00) apc 500,000
Borno pdp 150,000 apc 500,000



Mynd44
Lala
Asobo1
Oghenaogie
Tutudesz
Helinues
Fratermathy
Midolian
Jaxxy
Jrusky
Caseless
Agwotulumbe

Garfield1 has come again with his partisan leaning analysis. You try in some states but overall you get C.
1st Tinubu is not going to do better than Buhari in any SE state & 2nd Tinubu is not going to do better in any SE state than Atiku.
The day Tinubu announces his vice you would see how a lot of politicians in the APC would state avoiding Tinubu like a plaque

queenjoseph:
I will almost never forget in 2010, after Yaradua died and was succeeded by Jonathan who decided to contest 2011 presidency as the incumbent.

The whole north kicked against it saying it was the north's turn.

The north voted all for Atiku and Buhari while the south west, south east and south south voted for Jonathan.

North insisted that it was it's turn to complete Yaradua's tenure.

So everyone in the south united and they taught the north a lesson that Nigeria does not belong to the north.

When in the north, I learnt that the northerners hated Jonathan since it was because of him that the invincibility of the north was proven false.

It was one of the reasons they started bombing everywhere in the guise of boko haram.

I heard them say that Jonathan must spent years in prison after leaving office because it was because of him the north was put to shame.

Let us do the same this election.

Let the south come together this time and show the north that their statement "Muslim northerners are the majority and must always rule whenever they wish" is false.

You write CRAB/RUBBISH. Your insinuations are false. If North had voted north they world have defeated South. It's a game of number. Didn't Jonathan get votes from North & didn't Buhari get votes from South? There are more votes in the north than the south so if every voter should vote based on that factor North would always win.
Maybe you wanted to say the FULANI/KANURI/HAUSA North. But don't generalise the North when you talking of those 3 ethnic groups

How should he shun Ethnicity and Religion?
If he chooses a Muslim from Edo they would be the 1st to complain. Coconut head politicians.

She needs her money back na

Where is garfield1?

Upworkwriter007:
Lol. with that candidate against Atiku, other than SS, i'm not sure that APC can win elsewhere. What do y'all think?

If he can win SS, why won't he win SE? He would win NC & NE.
NE: YOBE & BORNO ARE 2 STATES THAT ANY APC CANDIDATE WOULD WIN.
ADAMAWA & TARABA ARE MULTI ETHNIC & RELIGIOUS HENCE ATIKU WIN 55/45 DESPITE HEAVY CHRISTIAN POPULATION COS THAT'S JUST LIKE HIS HOME STATE
BAUCHI 50/50
GOMBE: 53/46 IN FAVOUR OF AMAECHI COS OF THE 30% CHRISTIAN POPULATION

blancsn1:
On what basis are you supporting Atiku a Fulani not even Hausa with the way your tribesmen have been lamenting about Fulani herdsmen n we all know Atiku never condemned them not even once.

Atiku is not Fulani. Go find out

You are mad