₦airaland Forum

One of the lovers of all that is wrong with Nigeria

another1:
Chairman of Kaduna State Peace Commission (KAPECOM) Archbishop Josiah Idowu-Fearon has said that religious leaders must see themselves as instruments of unity despite their personal political preferences.
Bishop Idowu-Fearon was reacting to a statement credited to the General Overseer of Living Faith Church, Bishop David Oyedepo, ‘the number of people who vote for APC in 2023 will determine the number of mad people in Nigeria’.

Fearon argued it was wrong for any religious leader to tell his congregation to vote for any particular party.

He spoke on the sideline of a high level meeting of political parties, candidates and stakeholders for peaceful campaigns and elections in Kaduna State where 18 registered political parties, 14 governorship candidates and candidates for National Assembly and House of Assembly signed peace accord.

The event was organised by KAPCOM with support from Hope Action Progress, Legal Awareness for Nigerian Women (LANW) ActionAid, Christian Aid, Global Community Engagement and Resilient Fund (GCERF), SARVE and Global Peace Development (GPD).

The theme was: “Building consensus and mobilising collective action for peaceful 2023 general elections in Kaduna State”.

The Anglican Bishop was dismayed religious leaders wants to be seen as rulers, a situation he said is not helping the country and its democratic processes.

He said Nigerians must be allowed to vote their choices regardless of religion and tribe, stating “let candidates manifestoes and competence speak for them and not their religion or tribe.

“Religious leaders are part of the political problems we have in this country, some of them want to be rulers which is a wrong concept bringing about unnecessary sentiments.”

Idowu-Fearon who expressed fear with the way political activities are going with candidates being viewed on regional basis, averred that the elections might be inconclusive in the first ballot.


On the agitation by the South East for the presidency, he said: “Nigeria is practicing democracy which requires negotiation and not threat of any kind, adding that politics should not be seen as a do or die affairs.

“Insecurity and burning down of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) office in the South East will only end up drawing the region backward politically if not addressed holistically”.

He said leaders of the region are certainly not doing enough to address the situation.

“As we approach the elections, the media must be objective, religious leaders must educate their members to vote based on competence and pray for the candidates because voting is a religious responsibility.

“Party candidates must be honest and should abide by the constitution and their campaigns must be issue based devoid of hate speeches and calumny, above all we pray for a violent free conduct of 2023 general elections,” he said.


https://thenationonlineng.net/bishop-fearon-blasts-oyedepo-over-mad-comment-on-apc-voters/

Pastor IDOWU is an EMI LOKAN hence it's not surprising. His name gave him away easily

From his name, you know looting state fund is not a crime to him. Lawyers like him are the reason looting has become our culture

Oyetola how much Tinubu collect from Osun Treasury?

Stop running a Church campaign and start campaigning in the local governments in the North

Use percentage. You got no idea how turnout would look like

Oluwatoyink:
Starting from the north east , I see peter obi getting at least 60% of the votes while the rest share the remaining.

The northwest is the only difficult zone but obi is still expected to get 40%

In the north central obi will get 80% as evident in the huge crowds.

In the south east obi will get about 95%

In the south west obi should get about 65%, because of the tinubu effect.

Finally in the south south obi should win with a land slide of about 80%

I love drugs with high allucinating effect

garfield1:
Before today,i thought it was 50 50 but pdp is out.its between obi and tinubu.apc holds plateau south strongly and parts of central.lp is strong in central.dont know for plateau north

This man Garfield1 i just dey laugh you. You know nothing about Plateau politics. Tinubu won't see 25% in plateau. Its Obi then Atiku

1. PO
2. Atiku
3. Al Mustapha
4. Kwankwaso

garfield1:
Se; lp 65% pdp 18% apc 17%
Ss: lp 35% pdp 40% apc 25%
Sw: lp 20% pdp 20% apc 60%
Nc : lp 35% pdp 25% apc 35% others 5%
Nw: lp 5% pdp 40% apc 40% others 15%
Ne: lp 10% pdp 40% apc 40% others 10%

Noted Garfield1. We are 2 months away

You too generous to Obi in SE/SS/SW/NC but underrate him in NE.
You are too harsh on Tinubu in the SW, I expect him to get 55% there.

My rough estimate
SE: PO 68% Atiku 20% BAT 10% others 2%
SS: PO 45% Atiku 35% BAT 18% others 2%
SW:PO 20% Atiku 20% BAT 58% others 2%
NC: PO 30% Atiku 35% BAT 29% others 6%
NE: PO 10% Atiku 45% BAT 35% others 10%
NW: PO 5% Atiku 50% BAT 30% others 15%

Only person to win without run_off is Atiku.
A run_off between PO & Atiku very likely

garfield1:
No.tinubu has the edge in gombe while atiku has the edge in bauchi.taraba is very dicey,I'll explain later.
Aliero is no more on the ballot so I dont sww atiku winning kebbi.atiju can't win kad,obi and nnpp has killed his chances.tinubu has the edge in plateau.jigawa is dicey,atiku can't win fct.its obi OE tinubu.honestly,the only sure state for atiku is Adamawa and sokoto but tinubu will get up to 40% there

Garfield1 you have finally lost it. No need reading your post/analysis. You lost it finally

Garfield1 is making me to laugh. Is good you know Nigeria LGA & strong politicians but your biased affinity for Tinubu is embarassing. We are 2 months away. I go remind you that politics is not theory but practicals

His scammers have been unable to break the code yet

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



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Another Akara analysis

Absolutely

garfield1:
True.unfortunately,the supreme court will rule by February. I pray he continues campaigning unperturbed

Febuary? Thats too far. Wike owns the judiciary a very corrupt institution

garfield1:
Tinubu will get the spread in at least 17 northern states except Adamawa and maybe taraba,6 sw states,2 se states and 3 ss states plus fct...
Atiku will get the spread in 15 northern states.he won't make it in borno,yobe,zamfara,kwara,kano.if he isn't careful,he will fail ,Kaduna and benue.he will not get the spread in lagos, ekiti,Ogun,ondo.he won't make it in edo,rivers.he will not make 25% in anambra,Enugu,ebonyi.


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Febuary is around the corner. APC coming 3rd

garfield1:
He won't be disq

I really dont know how the Federal judiciary is in the pocket of Wike. The earlier Tonye is cleared to contest the better so that he doesnt loss supporters to Magnus Abe

garfield1:
According to the anap/noi polls,rivers guber poll is tight.fubara of pdp is projected to win rivers east of wike and ikwerre,Abe to win his rivers south east (fubara is from here) and Cole to win his rivers west zone dominated by kalabaris..

Rivers east where fubara is projected to win is highly urban and cosmopolitan.a lot of non indigenes are domiciled here esp in etche,emohua,obalga,ph and with bvas reducing wike inspired inflation,plus fubara unpopularity, votes might be divided.ikwerre LGA where amechi is from should go to cole,obio akpor will narrowly go to sim,same as ph and emohua.cole will take etche,omuma will be divided.okrika and ogu bolo will go to sim because of Evans bipi with cole taking significant margin.
In rivers west,asari toru and akuku toru will go to cole.hon dagogo who controls bonny degema axis is angry with wike and cole should take advantage.hon mannah and sen ideozu should deliver ahoada land to cole while hon odum odi the minister of state for environment alongside hon gift igoma will deliver abolga to cole.abolga in 2019 gave buhari his highest votes in rivers.in 2015,wike was attacked here while campaigning.he dreads here.onelga will be delivered by chief obuah to sim.
Magnus will get bloc votes from tai,ele,khana and gokana.he will bag oyigbo also.secondus and ikuri who control andoni are aggrieved with wike and may deliver for cole or Abe.opobo nkoro where sim is from is small and hon dakuku is from here so votes will be divided..
Based on the above analysis,cole or magnus can easily win rivers if they work hard to divide ikwerre votes and alienate fubara...


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You are back with a good piece. I believe Tonye Cole would win if he is not disqualified and BVAS used.

With 2 days left for him to leave office. This Oyetola is a really big mistake. Thank God Osun people removed him. Thats how he conducted LGA election after losing. Our Politicians are too selfish and LOOTERS

Peter Obi can't get 25% in Bauchi. Not even 10%

Donated 20 buses? Where did he get the money from? Looted the FGN & Gombe treasury

You improving grsdually

Datti is a nobody politically in the North

lhordspy:
Ahead of the 2023 general elections, analysis of the preliminary register reveals that six States of Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers, Katsina and Oyo have the highest registered voters.

DREAMING IS PART OF OUR EXISTANCE

garfield1:
Adamawa
Atiku 50% tinubu 25% obi 20% rabiu 5%

Taraba
Atiku 40% tinubu 25% obi 20% rabiu 15%

Gombe
Atiku 30% tinubu 40% obi 15% rabiu 15%

Bauchi
Atiku 33% tinubu 33% obi 1% rabiu 33%

Yobe
Atiku 15% tinubu 80% obi 1% rabiu 4%

Borno
Atiku 8% tinubu 90% obi 0% rabiu 2%

Sokoto
Atiku 40% tinubu 40% obi 1% rabiu 19%

Kebbi
Atiku 35% tinubu 45% obi 5% rabiu 15%

Zamfara
Atiku 20% tinubu 60% obi 0% rabiu 20%

Katsina
Atiku 30% tinubu 50% obi 0% rabiu 20%

Kano
Atiku 20% tinubu 30% obi 5% rabiu 45%

Kaduna
Atiku 20% tinubu 35% obi 25% rabiu 20%

Jigawa
Atiku 30% tinubu 43% obi 2% rabiu 25%


Mynd44
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Smart politician
Drlateef

Tinubu is going nowhere. Just keep allocating high percentages to him. He comes 3rf

Garfield1 each day you keep drawing closer to reality. Thank God you are learning cos 3 months ago Tinubu would have been winning each of those states by 60% based on your initial analysis. Keep reducing it till election day. For your information Tinubu won't see 25% in plateau

[quote author=Workch post=117522700]1. Southwest
Tinubu: 55%
Peter Obi: 25%
Atiku: 10%
Others: 10%

Tinubu will win because people will vote here for tribal reasons and he has loyalists. However, Obi will be second because a lot of people here also want change and are tired of Tinubu’s godfatherism hence Peter Obi will get 25%.

2. Southsouth
Obi: 50%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 10%
Others: 10%

This region will vote for Peter Obi massively, however their elites in PDP will also steal a lot of votes for Atiku, Tinubu is not popular here. He will get some votes in crossrivers state.

3. Northwest
Atiku: 40%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 20%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

This region usually vote a northerner since 1999, no a northerner always win here. However, APC elites will steal some votes for Tinubu but he will not win here. Kwankwaso will pull some vote here because he’s popular in this region. Majority of Obi’s votes will come from non-indigenes.

4. Northeast
Atiku: 45%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 15%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

Atiku will win his region for obvious reasons. Borno will give Tinubu a lot of votes because of Shettima . Kwankwaso is also popular here.

5. Southeast
Obi: 70%
Atiku: 20%
Others: 10%

We al know what will happen here, people here not only feel that obi is the most competent but they also feel that they have been obviously marginalized for so long. Atiku will come second because people still vote PDP here.

6. North central
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 30%
obi: 30%
Others: 10%




This is the most unpredictable region, kwara and kogi will give Tinubu votes, Abuja and Benue, Plateau , Nasarawa will give Obi votes, Benue, Nasarawa and Niger will give


Your brain too much. You would make an excellent POLITICAL ANALYST

garfield1:
In 2015 and 2019,buhari got 55% in sw.it can increase to 60%.lp and pdp are almost from the same pool or sharing same supporters in the sw except for new voters.the remaining 40%-45% will be shared by both parties.


Lagos
Tinubu 50% obi 38% atiku 10% nnpp 2%

Ogun
Tinubu 65% obi 15% atiku 20%

Ondo
Tinubu 60% obi 15% atiku 25%

Ekiti
Tinubu 80% obi 5% atiku 15%

Osun
Tinubu 55% obi 10% atiku 35%

Oyo
Tinubu 60% obi 15% atiku 23% nnpp 2%



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I tend to agree with you this time on the SW. My own rough estinste:
LAGOS TINUBU 60% PO 25% ATIKU 14%
OSUN TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OYO TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OGUN TINUBU 57% PO 22% ATIKU 20%
EKITI TINUBU 63% PO 17% ATIKU 19%
ONDO TINUBU 55% PO 23% ATIKU 20%

Agboriotejoye:

Garfield1 must not see this

Garfield1 go faint

NaijaRoyalty:
Joke Silva stopped her husband Olu Jacobs from taking movie role due to his fragile health , why would she turn around and support a Tinubu who's far more older and weaker in health than her husband ?

That's wickedness

Its us Yorubas 1st