₦airaland Forum

nnofaith:
Dont waste your time arguing with people who do not understand Nigerian politics. Atiku is not a northern project, he was fostered on Pdp by a few selfish southern politicians. Pdp controls only four states in the north (I expect Apc to flip sokoto).those are the states Atiku will clearly win. He has contestant the presidential elections twice and has never won in the core north because at both times he was not the Northern consensus candidate.
The Northern consensus is for the precidency to go south that is why no prominent northern politician contested in the Apc. The north is not selfish. They made MKo president, they made Obasanjo president and they have settled for BAT. If they didn't want him he would never have won the primaries.

WHAT IS NORTHERN CONSENSUS? WHO ISSUES THE CONSENSUS? WHEN HAS IT EVER BEEN ISSUED & HOW MANY TIMES HAVE THE CANDIDATE WON?

nnofaith:
Dont waste your time arguing with people who do not understand Nigerian politics. Atiku is not a northern project, he was fostered on Pdp by a few selfish southern politicians. Pdp controls only four states in the north (I expect Apc to flip sokoto).those are the states Atiku will clearly win. He has contestant the presidential elections twice and has never won in the core north because at both times he was not the Northern consensus candidate.
The Northern consensus is for the precidency to go south that is why no prominent northern politician contested in the Apc. The north is not selfish. They made MKo president, they made Obasanjo president and they have settled for BAT. If they didn't want him he would never have won the primaries.

Consolation

garfield1:
Before I answer that,let me remind you that in 2003,obj was not liked by the core north.he had little alliances and contacts there.he preferred the northern xtians and middle belt but he defeated buhari in Kaduna,won Niger,got 35% in borno and yobe,got 30% in sokoto,kebbi,jigawa,kano,bauchi,gombe,jigawa.it was only in katsina and zamfara he failed to get 25%...in 2011,gej got 25% in all the core north states except yobe,zamfara and katsina.this was against a very popular buhari.now think of what tinubu that is a Muslim with friends and structures in the core north against atiku that is not very popular...apc dominates those core north states,pdp is weak there.you yourself said pdp cannot win yobe,borno,katsina and zamfara

You are still beating around the Bush. We know all past results. I told you I know of results/voting pattern since 1959.

Tell me who is winning which state in the north and if possible their percentage score in each state. Nothing is absolute but an idea then we pick it state by state. Remember I want you to HANG YOURSELF

WhizdomXX:
The difference between the elites and the voters, don't the elites control the voters? Pls I need enlightening.

Though I never made mention of the ELITES & THE VOTERS.
I BELIEVE WHAT YOU ARE INTERESTED IN IS THE RULING CLASS HAUSA/FULANI/KANURI VS THEY HAUSA/FULANI/KANURI VOTING CLASS. THEY RULE/ SHARE NATIONAL OFFICES AMONG THEMSELVES WITH LITTLE OR NO PROBLEMS BUT THE WON'T VOTE THE SAME WAY COS THEY HAUSA/FULANI WOULD WANT TO BE IN POWER NOT A KANURI

WhizdomXX:
The difference between the elites and the voters, don't the elites control the voters? Pls I need enlightening.

In the Core north, they Elites must go with the popular candidate to remain relevant or if they elite have a candidate then they must consult the masses for acceptance. If an Elite imposes a candidate he/she would be disgraced and another new leader would take your place. So for the Elites to remain relevant they must accept the wishes of the people. In the south THE ELITES DICTATE & YOU FOLLOW. YOUR ELITE INSULTS YOU AND YOU VOTE FOR THEM. In the core North the Elite insult in public & he/she is leached. Not 100% though

garfield1:
I am an authority here, the best.in 2019,I told them that buhari will get 25% in ss/se,they ridiculed me.when I told them that uzodinma and yahaya bello will win,they still mocked me so my brother,you need to listen to me.a certain kelvingin even said I have spiritual powers.I told them that atiku cannot divide northern votes against buhari.highest he can get will be 30%...so you have to listen to me...

Let me repeat myself.atiku in the core north can only win Adamawa,taraba,gombe,sokoto,kebbi,kadunanarrowly.he would win there narrowly.borno,yobe,zamfara, katsina will deliver bloc votes for tinubu to overwhelm atiku.kwankwaso wilk likely win kano and jigawa but tinubu will have more votes than atiku..north central as usual will go either way narrowly...qed

YOU ARE AN AUTHORITY TO YOURSELF_ WELL IS PART OF THE ALLUCINATION. LET ME GIVE YOU A SIMPLE TASK TO HANG YOURSELF. CAN YOU NAME WHICH STATES WOULD BE WON BE EACH CANDIDATE IN THE NORTH & WE CONTINUE FROM THERE?

WhizdomXX:
Please explain.

SIMPLE WHICH PART YOU NO UNDERSTAND?

garfield1:
The bloc votes from those states buried gej,buried atiku and will bury atiku again.ive not even added zamfara

I leave you to keep ALLUCINATING. You have seen as some people said you shouldn't be commenting on the political section. Listen to words of wisdom & learn

garfield1:
Tinubu vice is shettima.atiku will be buried in borno and yobe

If TINUBU makes that mistake, the election would be over for APC before 11am. That's the worse candidate. A Muslim/Muslim ticket and there is no HAUSA/FULANI on that ticket. Guy 2023 is not 1992. The Fulani/ Hausa/Kanuri Ruling class is not the same as HAUSA/FULANI/KANURI voting class

garfield1:
Tinubu vice is shettima.atiku will be buried in borno and yobe

YOBE/BORNO ARE JUST 2 STATES OUT OF 19 IN THE NORTH & BELIEVE ME THOSE ARE THEY 2 STATES IN ALL NORTH THAT ANYBODY THAT APC PRESENTS WOULD WIN. THOSE 2 STATES CAN NEVER FLIP BUT ANY OTHER STATE CAN FLIP COME 2023.

garfield1:
This is funny.even if wike and okowa leave pdp,pdp will still win rivers and delta.kwankwaso can win but tinubu will poll higher than atiku...no matter how the east vote for obi,pdp will still get good figures there.you need to reevaluate your calculations.a core stronghold don't just flip,it takes time.

Guy each election got its dynamics. I accept that a state doesn't just flip overnight but sometimes they do especially as it patterns 2023. Don't you know Buhari from not being able to get 25% in some states in 2011 but all of a sudden got Majority in them in 2015? Do your analysis and go recheck figures.

garfield1:
Study the pattern of elections in zamfara,borno,yobe and come back again

Guy I know the pattern of those places from 1959 Congress elections to date. There are 19 northern states. I can tell you the pattern of each state

garfield1:
True.party structure,money,human resources, rigging power win votes and tinubu has the advantage

RIGGING? I WAS SCARED BASED ON THAT BUT EARLY ANALYSIS OF EKITI TELLS ME THERE IS LIMIT TO RIGGING AND THAT WORKS AGAINST TINUBU. TINUBU CAN GET MORE VOTES IN THE SOUTH THAN ATIKU BUT NOT IN THE NORTH

garfield1:
I am very objective.pdp will win a lot of states but its hard seeing an atiku win

I gave you my whatsapp last time. TINUBU won't defeat ATIKU in the North. The day TINUBU discloses his vice that is the day he would loss

garfield1:
Reply me yourself.tinubu will win north narrowly maybe by a million or less votes just as atiku wins ss narrowly

You must be day dreaming. Where have you seen a person reject GOLD for Silver? Guy if Peter Obi convinces Kwankwaso to be his vice, APC might not see 25% in Kano and some other states like Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto etc

AntonVince:
Your penchant for putting up speculative emotion-driven opinion as fact is legendary.

Anyone projecting a Tinubu win over Atiku in the core north does not deserve to use the politics sectiion.

YOU GOT IT. THIS GUY GARFIELD1 IS SMART BUT HIS POLITICAL ALIENATION GIVES HIM AWAY. HE WOULD MAKE A GOOD ANALYST THE DAY HE STOPS HIS SENTIMENTS AND START WRITING AS A NEUTRAL PERSON

garfield1:
Is atiku as popular as buhari,kwankwaso,shehy yaradua,ahmadu bello?

Guy Gen. Shehu Yaradua was my Dad's friend in the 70s. He was popular among the Elites but not the general populace. Today in the north in order of popularity
1. Buhari
2. Kwankwaso
3. Atiku
4. El Rufai
5. Zulum

With respect to your question the answer is NOPE. ATIKU is not as popular as those guys in the Core North. Also remember that being popular doesn't mean Votes for you.

garfield1:
You are contradicting yourself.you said with buhari not on the ballot,its over for apc.on the other hand,you agreed that apc will win majority of elections in the north without buhari... You gave examples of when he was in CPC and bauchi guber poll.you are blowing hot and cold.me and you have argued this severally.I told you that tinubu will have less votes than buhari in the north but he will win narrowly in the north against atiku.buhari CPC was winning presidential but losing other seats because the party structure was weaker than pdp plus candidates were not very popular.makura won because he was popular...therefore,tinubu vs atiku will boil down to structure and popularity.atiku is not a very likeable fellow up north like tinubu.therefore,the strength of apc will edge out pdp

GARFIELD MY REFERENCE OF APC GETTING MAJORITY IN THE NORTH IS NOT BASED ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BUT ALL ELECTIONS PUT TOGETHER. THERE IS GUBERNATORIAL & STATE ASSEMBLIES AND NATIONAL ELECTION. GET IT IN YOUR BRAIN THAT TINUBU WOULD NEVER DEFEAT ATIKU IN THE NORTH PERIOD. AM NOT CONTRADICTING MYSELF. IN THE NORTH IT IS A POPULARITY CONTEST COME 2023

AntonVince:
Your penchant for putting up speculative emotion-driven opinion as fact is legendary.

Anyone projecting a Tinubu win over Atiku in the core north does not deserve to use the politics sectiion.

Tell Garfield1 again

humberjade:
I really don't see how...with how selfish I know Buhari to be, nah all man for himself...and as it is evident in the way and manner his close allies lost out in the APC primaries, many will be shocked.

TELL THEM LOUD & CLEAR. IT'S ALL MAN FOR THEMSELVES. HIS SISTER SON THAT IS A REPS MEMBER LOST APC PRIMARIES FOR RE-ELECTION. IF HE COULD NOT INTERVIEW ON BEHALF OF HIS NEPHEW, WHO IS HE GOING TO INTERFERE FOR? HE MIGHT ATTEND ONE OR 2 APC RALLIES BUT THAT'S IT

HilcomTech:
Bros, what have you been smoking?

Same kwankwaso that Ganduje made minced meat of

No need discussing with you. You don't know anything

Teymanhenry:
It's high time a Christian rule Nigeria. The rate at which Christians are killed is just too much

More Muslims have been killed. We need a better President who can bring us together and improve insecurity

helinues:
How many party house do NNPP have in Katstina state?

How many seats did CPC have in Katsina before the Tsunami in 2011? Party is not everything in the Muslim North but the popularity of candidates

nnofaith:
I give up!

You better give up ohhhhh. In the North Buhari influence won't move more than 5% of votes to APC. Muslim northerners are voting their choice irrespective of party. Buhari SAK is over. How many people got elected cos of Buhari in CPC? Now that he is not on the Ballot, that's the end for APC. APC would still majority of elective offices but would be drastically reduced in the North. See Bauchi gubernatorial in 2019 where Buhari scored over 70% but the incumbent governor lost

miqos02:
that was when kwankwaso was in PDP, now he has moved on meaning votes will be split into three. can he get such results in Kaduna and Katsina?

Kwankwaso highest vote share if elections are held today
1. Kano 55%
2. Jigawa 42%
3. Katsina 30
4. Bauchi 32%
5. Kaduna 20%

naija4life247:
So Kwashiorkor, oh sorry Kwankwanso is more popular than Atiku or El-Rufai . You must be dreaming.

By far. Most popular politicians in the north in that order after Buhari
1. Kwankwaso
2. Atiku
3. El Rufai
4. Zulum
5. Tambuwal

HIGHESTPOPORI:
What happened, even with Shekarau on Ganduje side Kwankwanso candidate push Ganduje to a runoff.It took abuja to save Ganduje

That's 100% correct. APC had to RIG the runoff massively like they did in Osun gubernatorial runoff

duro4chang:
In this election no . This might be the end of PDP in the west or even in the whole of the south. But then the next month election in osun will determine the future of PDP down south.

I concur 100%

HIGHESTPOPORI:
NNPP would win some states back in 2023.Buhari is not contesting and Kwankwanso is the Most Popular Northener after Buhari

I concur

helinues:
Same Katsina Tinubu picked his vp from?

You must be kidney yourself

You don't know anything politics. So because of vice Kwankwaso won't get 25%. I laugh in Swahili. With Osibanjo as Vice didn't the opposition get more than 25% in OGUN/LAGOS?

miqos02:
no bro, kwankwaso can do without shekarau

Kwankwaso doesn't need Shekarau to win in Kano. He only needs Shekarau to help increase his margin of victory and to make sure APC doesn't win a single seat in Kano. He wants to give a knockout punch to Ganduje. He also needs Shekarau to help keep hold of Kano state while Kwankwaso goes campaigning for votes all over the country

helinues:
Outside Kano, Kwankwaso shouldn't expect reasonable votes in North cos his party na mushroom party

Kwankwaso is going to get 25% or more in Katsina/jigawa/Kano & Bauchi if election is held today. It's not about the party but the Candidate.