₦airaland Forum

Miracle2020:
According to tinubu crumbs eater abi?
Mr man,you should know that tinubu will not win even one state in the north. Buhari have a cult followers and buhari followers will not vote for tinubu because of his outburst against buhari in ogun state. Mind you,I am a northerner and iam speaking the mind of northern voters.

IF WE ARE TO BELIEVE THIS GUY, PLEASE CAN SOMEONE CHECK ON GARFIELD1 BEFORE HE GETS A HEART ATTACK. ELECTION IS 7 MONTHS AWAY AND BELIEVE ME SOME FOLKS IN THE NORTH WON'T FORGIVE TINUBU FOR THAT OUTBURST. I DON'T AGREE WITH EVERYTHING HE SAYS BUT I DON'T SEE TINUBU BEATING ATIKU IN THE NORTH PERIOD

garfield1:
Pdp was united in delta at then but now ibori is fighting okowa.even in delta north,he is facing a hurdles from nwaoboshi.delta central is a no go area.

Last I checked it was Ibori dollars that was used by Atiku for top off if you don't know. Go find out IBORI & ATIKU. SO BECAUSE IBORI IS NOT IN GOOD TERMS WITH OKOWA THEN THEY WOULD VOTE TINUBU? IBORI CANDIDATE FOR SENATE IN CENTRAL WHO IS GOING TO DELIVER HIM?

garfield1:
Leave emotions.you might hate tinubu but the guy is the best politician in nigeria.look at the way he won apc primaries while atiku struggles to win that of PDP.can atiku win apc primaries against buhari candidate?

Did Tinubu win APC Primaries against a Buhari candidate? You just type anyhow

Olaoluwa122:
Check this two result and tell me how delta will not deliver blog vote for their son

Believe me DELTA WON'T COST GARFIELD1 says so

garfield1:
The apc structure is too strong in the north,PDP is weak.no matter what,tinubu will win the north.atiku can only win some northern states,that's all...infact,worse case scenario is a narrow win for tinubu...atiku is not a popular candidate to galvanise people to vote him like buhari.tinubu personally has enormous structures and goodwill up north.atiku will has already lost the south east. He will only win narrowly in the ss that's if he doesnt lose.if atiku isn't careful,he might win nil region tinubu has at least one region on lockdown,atiku has none

For real? God allow us to see election day. No crying

Olaoluwa122:
Makinde will win easily..BTW folarin is also from Ibadan

NOPE Folarin is from OYO AXIS & NOT IBADAN. CHECK AGAIN. REMEMBER AJIMOBI IS FROM IBADAN AXIS HENCE FOLARIN CAN'T BE

garfield1:
I didnt say win,I said bloc votes.he will win delta but not heavily.they don't like him in deltq

Someone that has never lost an election in Delta state and all of a sudden they don't like him. DO YOU LISTEN TO YOURSELF AFTER YOU TYPE?

DontBullshitMe:
In 2007, Atiku ran under ACN, a SW party. So, how do you really expect him to perform up North though I agree that he should have won his state at the minimum.

In 2019, he ran against PMB - a once in a lifetime politician with cult like followership. What exactly do you expect? This time around it is against a Southerner banking on Northern governors support. At the very least, Atiku should win one zone in the North. Add to the 2 zones he will win in the South and things look promising for him.u

To me personally, This is Atiku's last chance at Presidency and coincidentally his best chance. If only Peter Obi will not spoil things for him.

Don't use 2007 for any political analysis. Is that not the same election where they say YARADUA DEFEATED BUHARI IN KATSINA STATE? EVEN YARADUA KNEW THAT WAS A BIG JOKE

Olaoluwa122:
Boss....tinubu might flip Oyo...But 75% is much...something in the range of 55% APC to 45 %PDP

NOTED BRO & I BELIEVE YOUR OPINION ONLY THAT I WANT TO BELIEVE TINUBU LEAST SCORE IN OYO WOULD BE 63% WHILE MAKINDE WOULD WIN RE-ELECTION. FOLARIN IS NOT FROM IBADAN AXIS

Olaoluwa122:
Muslim Muslim ticket...tinubu will struggle to win Ekiti and ondo...That is how islamization agenda of Nigeria is spreading here...

DON'T TELL ME?

DontBullshitMe:
Pending the outcome of his VP candidate, you can't be sure Tinubu will win North Central. If he goes Muslim/Muslim, he loses NC, no story. His performance in Southern states will reduce too.

See, let's be factual. The best Tinubu can do in SW is 70% (that's an overestimation sev). In South South, he loses outrightly to PDP. In SE, he loses outrightly to PDP too. Remember that Tinubu is not Buhari, he can never do Buhari's number in NW and Kwankwanso will pinch votes off him so I believe he will win but it will be narrow especially if he goes Muslim/Christian.

Tinubu needs to win the North. Infact he must win the North.

Like I have always been saying, SE and SS will be won by PDP. Take it to the bank. Atiku will have a very impressive outing in NE and NC. Infact, he can possibly win one of the 2 zones.

Tinubu's major problem is this : He is a Southern candidate that will outrightly lose 2 zones in the South. . .how does he survive that against a Northern candidate when he is not Buhari?? you tell me

CAN YOU PUT THAT IN AUDIO FOR GARFIELD1?

Olaoluwa122:
Geez...so delta people will leave their son and vote for Tinubu ba??sometimes you just write nonsense with confidence

Tell him. I Taya for his PRO _ TINUBU ANALYSIS

Olaoluwa122:
Alaye forget...Osun state would be a yardstick to see how tinubu will perform in oyo..

Exactly. If APC doesn't win Osun by 55% then there might be trouble for TINUBU. If APC doesn't get 55% then Tinubu won't get 75% there

garfield1:
Okowa might struggle to give bloc votes to atiku

Do you think Peter Obi added any reasonable vote to Atiku in 2019? Nope. Okowa is a save candidate. Do no harm. I believe he is a good candidate would have preferred Ihedioha but trying to get Maximum vote in Delta is also a wise option and he checks a lot of boxes including Finance

Olatunji1929:
You are as foolish and daft as your projection I only see you as a comedian on nairaland honestly

Garfield1 you hear what they are calling you? Change your ways

garfield1:
Hatred for a fulani like atiku is high.whether you vote or not,all Yoruba votes will be recorded for tinubu.we can allow makinde win but not atiku.don't forget makinde supported wike

YORUBALAND IS FOR ASIWAJU 78%

garfield1:
It is all permutations.no state has suffered in the hands of fulanis like plateau,benue own is even small so they can't tolerate another fulani.it is better to tolerate a southernmuslim than a fulani christian or pagan.I meant the smblf led by Edwin clark

Don't try to think for everybody. Atiku is a well known person to Nigerians. MUSLIM/MUSLIM TICKET SCARES THE HELL OF APC CANDIDATES ON THE PLATEAU. GO FIND OUT

rockmite:
The population of Muslims in Taraba is about 45% and about 35% in plateau. There is no way APC will not get 40% (at worst case scenario) at both states. In fact, Tinubu isn't a Fulani while Atiku is seen a Fulani, the odds in both states favour Tinubu.

YOU DON'T KNOW ANYTHING. SO IF TARABA IS 45% THEN ALL OF THEM WOULD VOTE FOR TINUBU? SO KANO THAT IS 96% MUSLIM MEANING TINUBU WOULD GET 90% THERE? YOUR THINKING IS DISTURBING

garfield1:
I still ask,is atiku overrated? Why did he fail to win any state in 2007? Why did he lost his polling unit and ward? Why didnt he clear his state like buhari cleared katsina? Why did he lose northeast to buhari from north west? Why did he get 25% in all northwest states but failed to get 25% in gombe,bauchi,borno or yobe? Why did borno and yobe and gombe give him the lowest votes? His highest vote was from Kaduna which he lost.he won Adamawa and taraba by 40000 votes.why couldn't he win any northern state massively? His bloc votes came from anambra,Enugu and delta.obi won his region for him but atiku couldn't deliver his own region.is atiku overrated?

Forget about 2007 in any of your political calculations. You can't even find that result anywhere not even with INEC. That was the most useless RIGGING IN OUR HISTORY & becos of that AN IGBO person might never be INEC boss in the next 20 years

DontBullshitMe:
Vice President for APC you mean?

PDP vice Presidential candidate is known already.

Exactly APC Vice

sotall:


Which kain mumu analysis be this?

APC winning Edo? Did you take loud or Meth?

Even when Adams Oshiomole was governor of Edo, PDP still won Edo in presidential election.

How can APC win Edo?
Even with the recent Edo no be Lagos slogan.

HE KNOWS BETTER THAN EDO PEOPLE. HIS NARRATIVE IS ALWAYS RIGHT

garfield1:
The worst thing plateau fear is fulani or a core north candidate.everybody knows that tinubu is not a radical Muslim.they will prefer him to atiku.the middle belt forum has already rejected atiku and endorsed apc/labour

Who is Middlebelt Forum? Keep doing the thinking for us in Plateau. Your narrative must be right_ you can't be wrong Mr. Know all.

You try but I advice you to wait till vice for PDP is known. Plateau is weary of fulani so they would vote Muslim/Muslim ticket or Peter Obi? Just watch out cos MUSLIM/MUSLIM Ticket might not get 25% on the Plateau/Taraba

Peacecore:
u see ya life. U actually know that northerners vote along religious line n u claim Taraba to be Muslim dominated state without a single Muslim governor since 1999 n d tune being dictated by a Christian. Go and ask Dogara about his constituency n LG, their political leaders there are christians but not in any other place in Bauchi. Embress d truth n know peace.
Peace be with you!
Mind u we don't care about Muslim/Muslim ticket as far as we're going to stop north from ruling straight 16yrs we can vote even Babalawo/Babalawo. Una born-to-rule mentality have to be hult.

DON'T YOU THINK BORN TO RULE FITS THE YORUBA MORE THAN ANY OTHER TRIBE IN NIGERIA? YORUBAS THINK OF THEMSELVES ALONE WHEN IT COMES TO PRESIDENTIAL POWER

Peacecore:
Bro u can't deceive us by telling us that we're not from Taraba. Even those ur fellow PDP men here know that u have lied. How can say that Muslim is the dominant religion in Taraba. Are u sure u r commenting from Taraba? Tell which of pass n present political office holders that are Muslim in Taraba, lemme check something. I will also tell u how many Muslim political leaders in any Igbo state of ur choice and in Kano n Bauchi.

Did GARFIELD1 SAY MUSLIMS DOMINATE TARABA? HE IS SMARTER THAN THAT. TARABA IS IN THE BAG FOR ATIKU COME 2023. GARFIELD1 KEEPS FORCING HIS OPINION ON PEOPLE.

NwaIdeato:
Thanks for the correction about Atiku's subregion.

As for the second part of your point, don't you think the conundrum Buhari's mishandling of security issues across the North which has led to the death of so many might pose a problem for APC this time around? can the power of incumbency influence the dynamics of apparent dissatisfaction and discontent that have bedeviled certain sections of the North?

Ganduje isn't even popular in Kano anymore, the man has lost a ton of goodwill there among the grassroots even though he was fared creditably in the aspect of infrastructure in Kano...I doubt the Gandollars much hyped machinery will do much is counteracting the split votes Kano will get with the Kwankwaso/Shekarau resurgence.

What makes you so sure APC will get bloc votes in the SW? because Tinubu is on the presidential card? even that might not be enough reason to guarantee an outright bloc vote for Tinubu cause he isn't popular among a minority yet potent section of the SW demography (especially the Christians), of course Tinubu will win the SW as it's to be expected...but it might not be the landslide victory you think it would be.

TINUBU might not get 25% in Kano

garfield1:
The north has always rallied round a radical Muslim,a pious,sharia driven fellow usually Hausa fulani or kanuri.first was usman danfodio,then ahmadu bello and to an extent late gen yaradua and maitama sule and then buhari.kwankwaso is gradually getting such followershio in the mould of aminu kano...atiku does not fit that features,he is seen as too liberal minded and western minded unlike conservative buhari.moreover,he is not from the core north nor from the Muslim dominated states.Adamawa is evenly divided...

Atiku contested in 2007 and won no state.he lost the entire northeast while buhari won some states in the north west.in 2019,he won Adamawa narrowly same as taraba.borno and yobe literally buried him whilst giving him his lowest votes...

Again,the north have read the mood of the
nation and seen that power must go down south for Nigeria to remain as one which favours the north more.highest they will do is extract some firm commitment from tinubu not to rock the boat...

Again,the north knows that it is the turn of the south and they are honest people.if they were so powerdrunk,they would have voted atiku in 2019..
Again,apc is so entrenched in the north and pdp weak...


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Helinues
Cajal
Noethnicity
Quotasysten
Fiizznation
Oghenaogie
Anambraprince
Okoroawusa
Tutudesz
Ogidigbodigbo
Jaxxy
Jrusky

ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER USELESS WRITE-UP. PUTTING UP GEN. YARADUA & SULE MAITAMA AS POPULAR FIGURES IN THE MUSLIM NORTH IS DEPRESSING _ MAYBE IN AMONG THE ELITES BUT NOT MASSES. KWANKWASO, BUHARI, DAN FODIO WERE POPULAR AMONG THE MASSES BUT NOT ELITES. ONLY SARDAUNA WAS ACCEPTABLE TO ALL. SO BECAUSE ATIKU IS SEEN AS LIBERAL THEN THEY WOULD VOTE FOR TINUBU? YOUR THINKING IS VERY DEPRESSING TO SAY THE LEAST

garfield1:
My prediction for ss

Cross river
Apc 35% pdp 50% others 15%

Akwa ibom
Apc 30% pdp 55% others 15%

Rivers
Apc 30% pdp 50% others 20%

Delta
Apc 25% pdp 55% others 20%

Bayelsa
Apc 40% pdp 50% others 10%

Edo
Apc 40% pdp 40% others 20%

I DON'T SEE APC GETTING 25% IN ANY SS/SE state with a Muslim/Muslim ticket except Edo state

garfield1:
Lagos
Apc 1 million
Pdp 400,000
Labour 600,000

Ogun
Apc 400,000
Pdp 200,000
Labour 100,000

Ondo
Apc 400,000
Pdp 250,000
Labour 50,000

Ekiti
Apc 250,000
Pdp 100,000
Labour 10,000

Osun
Apc 500,000
Pdp 250,000
Labour 40,000

Oyo
Apc 700,000
Pdp 400,000
Labour 100,000


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Helinues
Canal
Midolian
Noethnicity
Frankest
Igboid
Frowland
Warriaproko
Afamed
Yarimo
Esseite
Nowenuse
Ebubu4

Garfield1 you are very generous to PDP & LP in the SW. This is my take pending final alliances/VP selections

1. LAGOS
APC 55% PDP 2O% OTHERS 30%
2. OGUN
APC 75% PDP 15% OTHERS 10%
3. OSUN
APC 75% PDP 20% OTHERS 5%
4. OYO
APC 70% PDP 25% OTHERS 5%
5. EKITI
APC 80% PDP 15% OTHERS 5%
6. ONDO
APC 75% PDP 20% OTHERS 5%

TooMuchStuff:
In the North all kids are registered voters by force by fire by their emirs and Imams from the mosques.

Almajiris and Muslim foreigners from Niger Republic, Chad Senegal Mauritania Mali and Gambia are brought in by Fulani leaders to vote.

In addition heartless rigging backed by gov't of the North and security forces are all desperately engaged in rigging elections.

The core North always does things above the law and get away with it cos it's their way or bloodshed

CONSOLE YOURSELF WITH YOUR NARRATIVE

Nexus25:
The choice of Okowa has not elicited any excitement, at best, it's a total rejection from the sociocultural organisations that ordinarily should queue behind him. Also, the uneasy calmness and the loud silence from Wike's group is a thing of concern.

Wike knows when to be abrasive and when to apply diplomacy. He has more to bring to the table than Okowa. The only group the choice of Wike will annoy are not even supporting PDP, they have a solid candidate whose momentum is on the rise. What's the wisdom in losing Wike's supporters and those you want to pacify by annoying Wike at the same time?

Why not keep Wike and make do with whatever loss from the other group?

Now,

East is TOTALLY gone.
Wike is almost gone.

You might be right but I see it differently

Nexus25:
Atiku didn't play his game very well by jettisoning the recommendation of the committee assembled for short listing the vice presidential candidate. Winner should not take it all in a not too sure contest where other formidable candidates are in the ring. Atiku alienated Wilke's camp completely. Both Presidential and vice presidential candidates from the same camp.

Wike, Makinde, Ortom and others went to meet Atiku on that ground, he sidelined them and on that note, Makinde won't be that committed to Atiku's election. It is a win for Tinubu.

See how Tinubu has handed off the choice of his vp to other powerful blocs....it is politics.

Okowa is a better option to WIKE. Wike has alienated a lot of people. He doesn't have self-control. What do you think would happen if a prominent northern Imam provokes Wike 2 weeks to election? His response might doom Atikus chances in the North. Wike comes with a lot of BAGGAGE