₦airaland Forum

deathwing:
No such thing as 'as much as possible' where Pension finds are concerned. There is a max they can invest in equities (25% or so), and no matter the IPO, it would be stupid for a fund manager to dump ALL their allocation into it.

Did you read the release by PENCOM on the waiver granted to pension fund custodians wrt to the IPO? The "as much as possible" is within the context of what the new waiver permits them.

GeneralDae:
You think Nigerian retail investors alone can take up the $5 Billion (currently almost 7 trillion naira) in a short time?

Institutional investors e.g. pension fund custodians, cooperatives etc can virtually take up everything especially niow that PENCOM has given them a waiver to allow them invest as much as posdible in the IPO.
It could even be oversubscribed.
Only that the devaluation of the naira will now give advantage to foreign investors over Nigerians

GeneralDae:
Platforms are opening for Ghanaians and Kenyans to take part in the IPO as well. This is a good one. This could mean instead of cross listing across Africa (which would be difficult), the African countries would likely be able to access the shares easily on the NGX via their local platforms and buy it in naira but receive dividends in dollars. All they may have to do is open a USD wallet on the app.

https://mystocks.africa/dangote-ipo/ghana

Also for Kenyans:

https://mystocks.africa/dangote-ipo/kenya

This thing Alhaji is doing with the refinery IPO may affect Nigerians negatively. He is listing just about 10 percent and is opening the floodgates to everybody?. Nigerians are his number one customers and investors Who is Alhaji trying to impress? How many companies in other countries have done this for Nigerians? If he wants to open it up, then he should offer 30 percent or more to the public so that Nigerians can have more

222Martins:
My Take on the Anticipated Refinery IPO. If you are not invited to the Private Placement or you are unable to afford it, kindly stay away from the IPO and here are my reasons.

1. The people/companies buying the private placement will get it at a huge discount. They will take out millions and billions of $$$ loans at cheap rates to buy the private placement.

2. The private Placement holders will not buy blindly, they will be shown the books and workings of the business in live tours and in a PP Prospectus; so they will surely be buying at fair value with adequate knowledge of the numbers.

3. After the Private Placement, the IPO will hold at a premium price. This is where the poor and middle class go to submit their hard-earned money.

Just as a certain "OF" is already trumpeting that he will be investing $100M in the refinery, all the big names that matter locally and internationally, both individuals and corporate will queue up for photoshoot during the IPO launch and many will rush in but beware, none of them will be buying the IPO with you as they have already bought the private placement at a cheaper price.

PFAs will rush the IPOs and trumpet it because their Board members will be part of the Private Placement using corporate shields or SPVs and secondly, the pension fund they are administrating is not really their money, so who cares.

4. Immediate after the IPO is closed, the Private Placement shares will be listed on the NGX at the same price the IPO was sold and there will be a scramble; but due to scarcity, the price will be driven high above the Listing Price, yet people will not see it to buy.

5. Those Private Placement Investors that took loans to buy the PP Offer will sell/release their shares at a very high price. They will repay back the loan they took plus interest. They will now be left with FREE Refinery shares that cost them zero Naira/$$$. The investors among them can afford to sit and wait for years since the shares now cost nothing; while the traders among them will book profit and wait for the price fall to re-buy again.

6. After the above has happened, the IPO shares will be listed and the same poor and middle class will start struggling to book profit at the high price they are seeing but alas, it is going to be on full-offer and down the hill it goes from there. Imagine competing with the uninformed public who simply bought because of the hype and bragging rights of "I own Refinery Shares."

7. When the price is thoroughly beaten down, the patient-investors who stayed away from the IPO and those private placement traders who sold their free shares will mop up at bargain price because when it comes to business and investing, history does repeat itself.

As a final note, when the poor and middle class wants to buy a car, they seek advice from public opinions and car sales people. But when the rich wants to buy a car, they consult their rich friends, lawyers, financial advisers and bankers. The same principle applies to stocks. Just as cars are sold by car salesmen, that is how stocks are sold by stockbrokers; so use your tongue to count your teeth.

Disclaimer: The scenario i painted above is just an illustration and figment of my own imagination. Please do not take it as financial advice. You are responsible for how you interpret the fictional story above.

I doubt if the private placement would be at a discount to the IPO price. The reason is there is already huge awareness and interest by the public, so once the PP is placed with the few high networth investors, idustry watchers and market players would get to know the price and it would be difficult for Alhaji to later offer same shares to the general public at higher price for the IPO, unlike what usually happens under normal PP.

NOETHNICITY:
Even when they are genocidal and rapist?

Nonsense! You expect Israel to sit down idle and allow some idiots and terrorists to come kill their citizens and go scot free?

chimex38:
Chicken change...
Poor Man

You think so? Otedola is buying $100m of the IPO because of the limited value or stake being offered to the public by Alhaji..
He is still coming to mop up more shares on the floor after listing. These are the people that will drive the price up.

awesomeJ:
You're right.

I didn't participate in the 08 crash.
I was still battling Laplace and Fourier in college. Too bad they ended up not being relevant in real life 😁

But stilk, the best use of something like money is really to make impact.

Cos how much food can one eat, you can't drive two cars at once etc.

So even if it's 1%.

But obviously you're more experienced than I am, so I believe you know this already. You're either practicing it already or you have a great reason why you aren't.

Let me go see if our 22 year wait for a trophy will finally end tonight.

So he is even an Arsenal fan? No wonder! I heard that is Tinubu's club too!
I no wan talk the thing for my mind so I don't offend the people from Emirates. ''E ti mi'' already

awesomeJ:
I missed the part about insecurity while I responded earlier.

This is my take on that part:

Yes exactly. If the same policies that brought about insecurity have given you some great abilities to defend 10 people or a community, sure, I would expect you to use those resources to defend and secure the people instead of complaining while keeping idle resources that could end the insecurity.

Let us start by testing the experiment from your end. I know your chest is very big and strong! It can protect at least 2 people from AK47 bullets! There is nothing impossible. Let's go to Kwara and Kogi and check something!

awesomeJ:
I'm not referring to the gains you made in 2004.

And we're not saying Nigeria started in 2023.

But the government you're criticizing started in 2023, so..

Yes, I'm sure if you have been in this market since the government came in, you definitely made gains. You don't have to be a genius, you just need to have held some stocks.

If you didn't, please educate my assumption.

I'm not saying that you should use ALL your hard earned money to help, I'm saying use a portion. Whether 1% or 30%, whatever you're comfortable with, that little portion would have more impact than your complaints, then my grouse is that you shouldn't be complaining since these loots weren't really all that hard earned, they were partly gotten as a result of theseame policies you criticize, so it only makes sense to use part of it to address the downsides of the same policies.

Resources have been channeled to the government and their agencies, true, but some resources have also been channeled to your own portfolio, if you aren't using them to touch lives, then your talk about government not using theirs is redundant and hypocritical.

That's my view, it doesn't have to mean much to you.

This guy, you wan hear story!
Do you know I turned to church rat hiding and running away from several banks when my margin loans went bad after the stock market crashed in 2008-2010 and I was owing them several millions that later grew to into huge debts on my head? Do you even know some people committed suicide that time?
You think everything has been rosy and smooth in the stock market for someone like me? So if at all at all I get something little now, you expect me to just go give some percentage to just anybody because Tinubu has implemented economic policies that impoverished the citizens, while the govt keeps spending carelessly and has no plans for me and my family?

Let's focus more on making the govt use the huge resources at their disposal to take care of the people. That is the difference between us and the developed world.

HesInMe:
I was here criticizing them for not wholeheartedly embracing Dangote and clearing road for his refinery nah. But the government finally ended up in the right place. Sometimes even stupid people get lucky.

Wow!

awesomeJ:
Which dictionary are you using to get the meaning of "hate"?

You're obviously confusing the meaning of truth for hate.

To be clear, there's no iota of hate in what you highlighted, it's just a simple truth.


I'm just a practical person.

I prefer acting rather than making talks that have no impact

The reality is that you and I have made gains from this market, and those gains have been largely catalyzed by the same government policies that you prefer to criticize daily.


If you hate those policies so much, how do you with a good conscience prefer to keep the significant sums you've profited from them.

Especially when even half the loot would do way more to help the masses you pretend to care about, the loot you keep idly in your brokerage account would do much more to help their situations than your complaints ever could.


If these complaints were coming from those who didn't benefit from the same policies, they would be more substantiated.

Or if they were coming after you've distributed your loot, they would be taken with more regard.

I am restraining myself, but your line of argument is totally warped!

How do you know I made gains in this stock market? And if I did, how do you know the gains were largely catalyzed by this govt? A govt that devalued and destroyed the worth of my savings and investments by more than 50% in less than a year in office?. Was it this govt that catalyzed the gains I made in 2004-2005? Sometimes you people think and talk as if Nigeria only started in 2023? So pathetic!

You said I should try and use my NGX gains to solve part of the problem, and you have issues with me for supposedly sitting idly and doing nothing. So you are not happy that an ordinary citizen like me, who does not work for or receive any salary or allowances from govt.
You rather want me to use my hard-earned, private money to solve economic problems created and perpetrated by the clueless and incompetent govt that you support and cheer! INCREDIBLE!

So extending that your warped argument, if I complain about insecurity in the nation, you would say I should do something to resolve the problem and probably pick up my cutlass, club, arrow (I don't have a gun) and head to Kwara, Kogi or Zamfara to fight AK-47 bearing terrorists and help quench the fire!.
Even if I say that the road to your town or village is bad, you would tell me to use the money I made in NGX to go and hire Julius Berger to fix it to make it better?. If I say there is no electricity in your state or town, you would say I should be my brother's keeper and use some of the gains I made in NGX to go buy transformer and install for them?. If I say they have no potable water, you would say that is my responsibility because you think I made money in the NGX because of some vaunted policies of this govt. that came to power three years ago?
Is this your logic? INCREBIBLE?
God Have Mercy!
There is what is called Responsibility and Resource Allocation in governance. The resources to resolve these problems have been channeled or given to the govt so they are the ones to be pushed, encouraged or even compelled to do so. Other would-be contributors cannot be blamed!

GeneralDae:
Nigerians have always cried of hunger from the 1970’s onwards. It was even worse in the 1980’s down to early Obasanjo period.

Which 1970s onward?
Can you tell me the year that Nigerians came out and demonstrated against the govt for high cost of living, harsh poverty the way they did under this govt?

awesomeJ:
I think it'll be more potent for some of you who have made loots via these policies to alleviate for 10, 100, or even 1000 individuals in your vicinity.

That'll be way more potent than endless criticism of the policies or unrealistic expectation of an election loss.

If you or @streetinvestor2 each have gained N2bn due largely to these policies you both criticize, the ideal non hypocritical thing to do would be to take out those profits and structure intervention funds for maybe 100 people.

Give N20m each to 100 people around you.
After all money is just number and is inherently useless.

Some of those 100 people would better their lives and those of people close to them with the money.

But no, you prefer to sit idly on the loot, probably doing nothing to better the lives of people around you, and you expect me to believe you're better than the people you criticize??

I'm no fan of any politician, I've never voted, but people close to me, outside my family get a little bit of my small loot from time to time, making the hardship easier on them

There's no need for me to overemphasize the hardship while refusing to do anything about it, even though the same policies have afforded me the means to intervene.

You keep saying only a small percentage are in the market, if those small percentage showed love, the impact would be farther reaching.

There are several mishaps in what you typed.
But the bolded alone tells a lot about how things are in your mind.
Making definite, categorical, derogatory, hate-filled comments about a bonafide citizen, a person that you do not, and may never know or even meet in life? If you could be this hate-filled, toxic and low for free against a citizen who has not embezzled public funds, I wonder what would be if a few notes is thrown at you to go attack critics of the govt?

I don't attack anyone who says good things about the govt. It is their right.
I only state my own reasons why I think the govt is doing badly. Then people attack! Very funny!
But I think know and understand now! The attack does not change anything, especially if the govt still remains clueless

HesInMe:
You clearly didn't read my comment in full, and aren't aware of my prior comments on this matter. You just read the parts that were laudatory to the current government and opened fire.

As far as I know, for the first time in the recent history of this country, hard working labourers, petty traders, peasant farmers, civil servant, workers, self-employed youth, artisans etc. matched and demonstrated shouting ''ebi n pawa'' meaning we are dying of hunger, due to the harsh economic policies of the govt without any safety nets to cushion the citizens.!
That should speak volumes in our ears and conscience anytime we are tempted to be swayed by govt's humongous, naira-propelled propaganda that they have done exceedingly well.

HesInMe:
I meant no debate about the policy direction (return to macroeconomic orthodoxy and market-driven pricing of fuel) and its outcomes (monetary predictability, FX stability, fuel supply stability, investor confidence). You are correct about implementation issues, but in the context of a national election that's nibbling around the edges of the debate.

And the incidence of poverty has increased many folds! That is success to you?. The elitist definition of success?.
While more several millions of citizens have been pushed into harsher poverty, you console yourself with things like stock market activity, forgetting that only a minority few locals and some foreign investors play in the market.

GeneralDae:
But you were the one who initially alleged he advised printing and you doubled down when I showed you his tweet from 2020 saying his initial statement was clear and he is just covering up. So what initial statement on printing were you referring to?

My friend, we don't need to drag anything.
If you and I pretend or lie that there was no statement like that, it is fine. Good luck.

HesInMe:
Stop exaggerating jor. They haven't failed in "everything." They've taken difficult but necessary policy decisions that have set us on path to relative macroeconomic and foreign exchange realism and stability. These measures have clearly boosted investor confidence in Nigeria, as shown from the rebound in money inflows and the surge in the stock market -- driven by domestic money, which is more stable. Fuel supply is also now stable.

No serious person debates this. Or denies the political courage it took. Or the pain it has unleashed. The only serious debate now is what the path forward is.

You cannot be absolute!
There are options and alternatives to every macroeconomic policy or decision, so it is wrong to say ''no serious person debates this''. This is the false narrative that the govt is shoving down the throat of the people and I don't buy it.
Even where a policy may be desirable, the timing, the implementation, and remedial actions to ameliorate the adverse effects are very important. Bad timing and poor implementation destroys policies, especially when such policies are carried out without wide consultations.

GeneralDae:
Where is the original comment/interview?

Lol. He should sue newspaper for minsterinterpreting his economic lecture? Haba 😆😆.

So, if you do not know where the original comment/interviewing is, why do you say he was clarifying a misunderstanding?
Was he just talking loosely or anyhow without reference to an earlier comment? Do you clarify what does not exist?
i tire for this ''project'' of yours ooo

GeneralDae:
This was Tinubu clarifying this misunderstanding immediately in 2020

This latter response was an after-thought and a damage control.

The original comment/interview was widely reported and it was in simple English language which everybody understood.
When you see some trying hard to interpret what was written in very simple basic English language, then you know that the person ''don cast''
He has not challenged or sued the newspapers that carried the story for misrepresenting him. So rest.

GeneralDae:
If your external reserves are low and you have a backlog of $7 Billion at a point where external creditors have started rejecting your letters of credit because they are not sure of how much reserves the CBN have, where do you start from?

You start from "printing more money". That was the kind of reckless advice and recommendation that the president (who you are defending or praising right now) gave to ptevious govt.
When I say this govt can be reckless,e get why. It is not personal

yMcy56:
I guess people should leave ZICHIS alone..
It will be fine at the end of the day...
Shebi you didn't buy, then leave it and face your good stocks....
No need to continue posting endlessly on what you don't even have.
This is a simple stuff I blvd.
We are all here and watching turn of events after-all.....no be today we dey this Market nah.

How many offers did you see outside in the first place?
No need to keep taking paracetamol for another person's headache....

A quoted company with the public having a stake? Not realistic for people to ''leave it alone''
But just ignore what does not align with your convictions and strategy.

megawealth01:
Wale is playing with emotions

So who go warn (or warm) Wale for us na?
Jagaban? or Wike?

megawealth01:
I've removed my mind from Wale and his games. I handed over OANDO to prayer

There is nothing prayer cannot do!
Small small, chicken go drink water!

If Oando can maintain and close at full 10% today Monday, then something must be in the offing; may be a good FY2025 result or capital raise vibes

KarlTom:
Yes

Some ''bad guys'' have ''sharpened their knives'' for Oando, just waiting for the cow to land!
Always ''watching out'', from T&T to Angola, to Niger Delta

KarlTom:
This your comment reminds me of the individual who started gaining weight after selling off his/her OandO holding

I know the ''individual'' here. His moniker starts with ''E''.
He does not want Oando wahala at all.
But we dey there gidigba. All die be die

dre11:
https://www.thecable.ng/us-nigeria-forces-kill-over-20-isis-fighters-in-fresh-borno-air-strike/

Please, we know our armed forces have been trying their best in the past. But this is US' making

Oasisblue:
Whats pushing Oando share price up? Have they released their result? Just curious as I no get Oando again. Sold it all off. The management of the company infuriates me.

Keep your peace!
Only the brave and rugged are entering the thick forest, it's called ''igbo odaju"

SonofElElyonRet:
Which new government when opposition votes will be split rekereke? Jonathan is also contesting

Sometimes, it is better to stay away and protect the reputation and respect you enjoy.
I wonder who and who advise Jonathan to contest. And what would be his new status, reputation, image etc. if he loses?
Or if he wins and has to face the current insecurity and economic challenges created by this govt?

HesInMe:
That "if" should be in 100-size bolded and italicized font sha.

You are right
Are you an Oandoite, or one of those people that like to hold our blokos when things are down, like @Agba?

BabsO2:
Make them release the result joor. Make we pray this journey doesn't fizzle out like that. But lead to the 3 digit destination without delay. My estimate of OANDO valuation is nearly mid way into four digits based on cashflow from reserves entitlements. Even with the planned dilution from Capital raise, it's valuation is still far from current market price.

Yeah.
Aradel's value alone tells me Oando can easily clock N500 if they resolve the debt burden and increase production to 100,000boepd

BabsO2:
Oando just gained a perfect 10%. So good. Lovely.

Wale may be coming up with something.
Although they promised to release 2025 audited results on or before May31. May be some people have seen the results and it is good.?