₦airaland Forum

CyrusVI:
This Governments seems to wanna invest in capable minds and hands. This to me is one of the biggest thing a Govt can do for its people

I would want this to cut across more sectors tho
PBAT!!!

This govt is not the brain behind the innovations in the railway transportation system. It was Jonathan and Buhari administrations that did a lot in the railway sector, which has culminated in sending employees to China for training.
Tinubu's govt has come only to destroy the foundations of the Nigerian economy with reckless and clueless governance which is inflicting unprecedented suffering on Nigerians.

Choiceguy:
Oando hitng a new high of #17.50, how far can it ride.
#20 is almost around the corner.we keep watching.

My people should let Oando breathe small, abeg!

MadeINchenzen2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jd_qbp5Ha18



~ Peter Anosike (analyst)

It is like saying that Mandela was a suspect because his release stopped protests and crises in South Africa

Morbeta11:
https://gazettengr.com/lagos-assembly-to-pass-law-criminalising-street-begging-speaker/

Foolish, disgusting bunch of people!
They should criminalize begging for loans and grants by governments too!

naturalflow:
EXCUS ME SIR,HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE OANDO TO CLEAR THE NEGATIVE 444 BILLION RETAINED EARNINGS ON ITS BOOK?IF OANDO NO GO BACK TO 12,THIS WEEK CALL ME BASCAR.

No one can say for sure how long it would take Oando to clear the negative retained earnings. It may take about 3 years or more or less.
But that does not stop the share price from rising higher. The negative retained earnings may not allow Oando to pay cash dividend in the short-term. But if the company makes very good profits in a particular year, they can decide to pay non-cash dividends by issuing bonus shares to shareholders and that can also make the share price to rise further and people can cash-out on that.
Do your due diligence and decide. Various scenarios can play out in the stocks market; it is not always a one-way market.

Coolcash1:
Oando just crossed the stubborn N16 level. Though it’s looking like a fake out to trap itchy fingers before price reverses downward….

Almost 54m units of Oando traded today!

Kuginzi:
https://www.channelstv.com/2024/07/04/dangote-elumelu-rewane-enlisted-as-tinubu-inaugurates-economic-team/

Medicine after death; nothing will come out of this collection of politicians and businessmen.
The committee should have included a good number of independent, competent economists and finance experts who could be bold to tell the president when his policies are wrong.
Apart from Bismark Rewane, I cannot see notable economists or finance experts in the team.
The businessmen will only promote and support policies that will make them richer.

Choiceguy:
That's if profit takers will allow it reach 20.those that bought at bargain price @8.30 will start existin before

Oando needs exceptional news like not delisting then investors will start looking at the future prospects of the company

To me the result that will be publish will not be much different from the previous year,rather improved loss like the one IB keep bringing out.

Oando may or may not report losses for Q1 & Q2 2024.
But I am very hopeful that Q3 & Q4 2024 will show better results because of inflows from newly acquired assets from the ENI/NAOC deal. And from 2025 there will be much stable profits goin forward.

Raider76:
Got all the Oando I bid for today. Let's hope they allow it to move this time.

There seems to be some players who want to maintain Oando's price within a range so they can mop up as much as possible.
If you believe in the prospects of the stocks, then do not bother about what those guys do. Just focus on your investment goals and target price.
I had wanted to buy more of Oando, but the recent price hike has affected my target units. I will wait until sometime later and buy more before they release the Q1 2024 results

sophy17:
No pls.
Courts do observe annual vacation.
This year's Federal High Courts vacation is between 23th July to 13th September. 2024
The long adjournment date was to allow Court resume. Other matters before the Court will also be factored in while fixing the next date.

Meanwhile. It is not today Oando have been sealing solid deals using cheap public funds and loans. But non of them have benefitted the ordinary shareholders except the ....

Why some people think this will be an exception is beyond me especially now that they have the political power! No doubt money can be made by traders but no value investors.

Do you realize how that Oando transited from downstream to Upstream company using expensive commercial loans from banks?
Do you realize how capital intensive operations in the oil and gas upstream sector are?
Can you mention one company in recent history that has transited from downstream to upstream the way Oando has managed to do?
It is apparent that they faced some huge challenges which affected them and impacted negatively on profits, but it is also true that they seem to be making remarkable progress and on track to profitability going forward.

bovali:
The models that I use have been accurate so far. When oando came up on the model, I did my DD. Debt aside, the only issue wrong with oando like I said previously is mismanagement. They gave FG loan, acquired AGIP for peanuts but nothing changed in their books aside FX gain. The market moves in both directions on momentum, I was just advising the short term traders that want to play the volatile swing we’ve seen in the last one year.
Dd advised

Haba! How impatient could you be with your assessment of Oando?
The latest financial results from Oando are for FY2023.
Both the FG loan and acquisition of AGIP were finalized and completed in Q2 2024!
How do you expect these events to reflect or change anything in their books (or accounts) for FY2023?
Financial statements for Q1-Q4 2024 have not been released, yet you are already saying nothing has changed? Sounds like jumping the gun.

bovali:
I understand where you’re coming from completely. And I agree with you. But till that time, the q1 and q2 will at least give confirmation. But for this quarter, unless it enters my target zone then nothing. If oando breaks 16 Naira, and closes above it, the. 20 Naira is very possible in the short term like street investor said

Smart babe!
This is how the beautiful, intelligent, brainy women make money, and some of us lazy guys would be envying them.
Please remember me whenever you discover another goldmine on the NGX.
Man shall not ''blow'' or ''hammer'' by Oando alone.

bovali:
Q1 is coming out in September, when will Q3 and full 24 come out? That’s my point, if I know they will release loss in the coming Q1, I might as well wait and trade the support and resistance zones again. It has nothing to do with future prospects, it’s money I’m trying to make.

I get your point. You want to maximize your returns in the shortest possible time, which is not bad.

But in my own case and humble opinion, Oando is a ''long-term'' project. So my focus is more on what I can squeeze from it in probably 2025 and beyond, God willing.

PETERiCHY:
So you MEAN we should WAIT for 2024 Q3 and full FY2024 financial results that will be release in 2026

No, not what I mean.
I was reacting to the OP (bovali) who stated that the acquisition of ENI/NOAC by Oando has already been priced in (reflected) on NSE as at today.
I was telling her to wait and let's see when the profits from the acquisition starts reflecting in the financial results of Oando when the accounts for Q3 2023 andFY2024 are released. By that time, Oando's price would have increased significantly and it may be too late to buy at a bargain price and make a good margin.

bovali:
All these are long term and uncertain. Niger Delta is not where you will use force to get what you want. If they don’t get it right, they will waste money on fixing old pipelines that were previously bombed and it will get bombed again once there is small community disagreement. I personally know what the gas industry is struggling with right now with regards protecting its pipelines. All in all, I pray we get this right. If Nigeria doesn’t work for me, it must work for my children

The Niger Delta issue is systemic risk. It all affects everyone in the industry.
Seplat, Aiteo, Aradel, etc are all operating in the Niger Delta and making good profits. Oando will not be an exception. All it requires is sound management and cost efficiency

SonofElElyonRet:
No.. right now na guaranteed minimum returns of N7

It is not possible for a stocks to be delisted at a price lower than market price!
The N7.07 offer price for Oando's is dead on arrival. It is no longer relevant in the scheme of analysis for any purpose, until when the price on the market falls below N7.07

Omooloriredade:
From where I stand, the completion of the Oando deal is a game changer for the company. I expect Oando to release an announcement to breakdown what this acquisition means to the company and its shareholders. That's what a good CEO would do. Sell the news while it's hot. Many may still not understand the ramifications though until they see the Q3 and Q4 results which should incorporate Agip's assets.

Oando's best asset has just been doubled while they shed the less quality assets. We can argue poor leadership is also a bane of this company. It's an empty post, lets see if Wale can manage to put the ball in the net. Recent news suggests a genuine turnaround might be in the offing.

The FG has signified interest in cranking up crude production which should augur well for E&P companies. If they can manage security and infrastructure availability properly such that it translates to increased production, there could be some good money to be made by all players. As for Oando, their financial report should look better if they can push for 100,000BOE in production this year.

My post could be misleading so please do your own DD.

Oando had announced in prior publications, interviews, press statements etc. that their daily production would hit 100,000 barrels somewhere in 2025 after the completion of the ENI/NAOC deal.

bovali:
Acquisition that’s been priced in since

The acquisition might have been priced in already. But the benefits (cost efficiency, performance and profits etc.) accruable from the acquisition of ENI/NAOC assets will only start reflecting in Oando's financials going forward!
Wait until you see the 2024 Q3 and full FY2024 financial results.
Oando is making gradual, remarkable progress in spite of the difficulties in past years, but some people are neck-stiff in acknowledging it.
Investment analysis does not begin and end with past performances. Future revenues and profits are also key to investment decisions.

Payunsin:
I don't understand myself ooooo.
I will aim to buy fundamentally sound stocks, but will end up gambling and mopping veristaskapital and Oando.
I wan hammer quick, I pray I don't get hammered

Something supernatural may be moving you towards achieving your goal of hammering quick! It is a force that you may not be able to resist or withstand. Sometimes, that is how luck smiles on people!
Enjoy your VeritasKapital and Oando largesse when it lands eventually.

4willer:
Hello all, with the upcoming Dangote refinery take-off this month, Eterna Oil and OANDO are part of the major suppliers to the public. Would that positively impact their share prices in any way? It has been in the air for some time now...

Eterna Oil is a downstream (marketing) company and sells refined products in naira
Oando is an upstream company, and exports crude oil and gas for revenues in US dollars. If they are to sell to Dangote in dollars, it would affect the price at which Dangote can supply the local market.
Hence, govt may have to find a way to supply crude to Dangote in naira.
Companies that hitherto benefitted from subsidies may be negatively affected.

Mankind2024:
As of 2024, OANDO has made efforts to address some of the infractions listed:
- They have improved their financial performance, reporting slight profits in recently released vague financial statements.
- Trading volume has increased, indicating growing investor interest. This is questionable, as we do not know if Wale Tinubu is the one trading via proxies.
- OANDO has complied with listing requirements, submitting financial reports and addressing audit issues.
- Management has become more responsive to investor concerns, providing regular updates. I have personally sent more than 4 toxic letters to OANDO.
However, some issues still persist:
- Asset stripping continues, with the sale of some assets and subsidiaries.
- Market capitalisation remains a concern, with some fluctuations.
- Communication can still be inconsistent, with some vague statements.
- High debt-to-equity ratio remains a challenge.
- No dividend payments have been made recently.
- Regulatory issues have decreased but not entirely resolved.
-Investors still do not know where the boat of OANDO is sailing to.
-The poor performance in OANDO financial statements is always due to pipeline vandalism and oil theft.

a. Is the sales of some assets and subsidiaries (''asset stripping'') not in line with the strategic change in Oando's business from a downstream company to an upstream player?

b. Have you considered that proceeds of the sale of assets in the downstream sector were applied to pay off loans procured to acquire assets in the upstream sector?

Mankind2024:
As a contrarian long-term self-investor in both NGX and NYSE, I have found that companies incubating a delisting agenda from a stock exchange may exhibit certain signs, including, but not limited to, the following:

1. Poor financial performance: Consistent losses, declining revenue, and negative shareholders' equity. PZ
2. Low trading volume: Infrequent buying and selling, indicating a lack of investor interest. GSPECPLC demonstrated this before the soft landing, DICON SALT
3. Non-compliance with listing requirements: Failure to submit financial reports, audit issues, or non-disclosure of material information. IB, OANDO
4. Management's reluctance to address concerns: Ignoring investor inquiries, failing to provide timely updates, or dismissing concerns.
5. Asset stripping: Selling off valuable assets, subsidiaries, or businesses, potentially weakening the company's financial position. Unilever is culpable here.
6. Reduced market capitalization: A significant decline in the company's market value. IB is guilty here.
7. Inconsistent or unclear communication: Vague or contradictory statements about the company's financial health or future plans. Oando
8. High debt-to-equity ratio: Excessive borrowing compared to shareholder equity. PZ, MTNN
9. Failure to pay dividends: Omitting dividend payments, indicating financial struggles. Morrison Industries, OANDO.
10. Regulatory issues: Repeated violations, fines, or investigations by regulatory bodies. OANDO.
This was what I knew before committing my sweat and blood to all the Tony Elumelu-listed companies. I have no regret so far; rather, I beat inflation regularly due to benefit of due diligence, despite this I still invest in some of these companies with poor fundamentals, and sometimes, I draft a strong anonymous letter to their managements.

How many of these infractions has Oando been able to redeem in the last few months?

Coolsperm:
All this is a calculated attempt by northerners and some ipob members to discreadit Tinubus govt but We Yoruba Muslims are watching, we Yoruba Muslims are very comfortable with Tinubus gvt and will always defend it

Tinubu is already a discredited, clueless president!
Don't mix up the issues

Agbalowomeri:
One bad news and the jijoist will be trapped all the way down to N5😂.
Ask PeTErRiCHY where Oando dumped his scrotum 10 years ago 😂

One bad news could affect every stocks on the NGX; it is not peculiar to Oando.
Ten years ago, people lost huge money in Transcorp! Have you also asked those who lost huge money in Transcorp ten years ago? But where is Transcorp today? It is doing much better now!

bovali:
I swear lmao. Until that thing closes above 16 Naira, all this one is just story. Even the first link he used as reference, oando was 14.6 Naira in September 2023. Today it’s is 15 Naira. Almost one year after. Abeggi

Put things in proper context.
Are you ignoring the fact that it is the protracted court case that has been holding back the price of Oando.? The case is already about 3 years in court and that will surely affect the price of any stocks!

Mpeace:
This delisting has little to do with SEC. Its a court ordered delisting. SEC is not even a party to the suit.
Only the court can determine if it will succeed or not. SEC will not have a say on it.

The SEC has a major role to play.
That is why Oando itself has applied to SEC to obtain SEC's ''no objections'' approval. The SEC is yet to respond, waiting for the final decision to see what Oando would come up with as the final offer price.
SEC can decline the request and that would be the end of the delisting.
What the court is to determine is if the applicants have the legal basis to make the request for delisting.
SEC has the mandate to decide if the delisting should be done based on market rules and regulations.
Shareholders also can shoot it down if they vote against it at the AGM.

BabsO2:
You wrote earlier that OANDO used to pay relatively good dividends before the upstream acquisitions. After the acquisitions things got really rough. Likely due to over-payment for the assets and the down turn in the oil industry immediately after the acquisition. Hence there is antecedent that Wale led management pays dividends when the company makes money.

On the delisting issue. There is a possibility this was triggered by the power tussle to over throw Wale led management and the imposition of a new management by SEC to replace the Wale led one. Now that that tussle is over and Wale in the last AGM stated clearly that they had to pay off some shareholders, I guess the FAT troubling shareholders are already out. But since the delisting card was already started and the bus already left the station before the FAT shareholder was paid off to exit peacefully, the bus will continue in motion till it comes to a stop. Wale said delisting may happen and it may not happen. Wale said paying dividends is not an issue once the turnaround goes smoothly with distributable incomes. That this should not be an issue since they earn in $$$$$$s

All you said are nothing but the truth about the situation in Oando.

talk2me2:
SEC does not stop a coy from delisting the only thing they can do is to ask for a fair consideration for the shareholders.

SEC just recently declined the request of PZ Cussons to buy-out minority shareholders and delist. Do your findings. Just google it. And that put a stop to their intention to delist.
As long as SEC rejects the application to delist, the company cannot delist.

megawealth01:
And you think they can stop that oga at the top if he wants it delisted?

Well, it depends, if there are no pressure from outside.
Recently, SEC rejected the buy-out of minority shareholders and delisting by PZ Cussons.
Can they do same for Oando? I don't know for sure.

Even if Oando want to delist, the exit price can never be the crazy N7.07. It has to be much higher than that.
People who bought on the market when the price was N3-N5 would still make some money!

zendi:
Hmmn, a story of Acquisitions, Expansions,
Indebtedness,
Debt Repayment, Loss Reporting,
More Acquisitions,
More Expansions,
More Indebtedness, And now, Delisting.

You get it, perfectly!
Oando shareholders have been through very difficult times. And now that there seems to be some hope, this delisting issue has cropped up. That is why some shareholders have vowed never to allow the delisting succeed. Hope SEC would be equally determined to protect shareholders interests.

freeman67:
She said everything she had to say in the quoted post. In all the stocks you mentioned bar Transcorp, something happen that changed their fortune chiefly of which is management.

For Transcorp, the management didn't change but it took an attempt for a take over before the Chairman had to let minority shareholders benefit. That's someone that's even known to democratize wealth ooo (As he would say) if you compare every other of his company listed.

What is the antecedents of Oandos management? When last did Oando pay dividends? How much dividends has investors that bought it about 70 Naira gotten cumulatively from 2010 till now.

Also, this is not their first time of acquiring assets. Oando acquired ConocoPhilips in 2014 with fanfares. How has that benefitted the shareholders.

There is all also " Future Potentials" and "revenue and profitability" that at the end will disappear all the while it will just disappear as usual. So, let us just gamble in peace and allow sentiments make money for whoever want to ride with the tides but if you really want to look at it based on antecedents, there's nothing in it.

My point is, some investors may consider the future prospects of a company and take a position in it. It is part of the risks involved in investing!
I am not saying Oando is good stocks or bad!

Every listed company/stocks currently struggling can also have a turnaround like Transcorp or any other company did.
Oando's problems started more than a decade ago when it was rumoured that some politicians like James Ibori etc. had some stake in it.
As a downstream company it paid dividends consistently, paying N4 per share for FY2007; N3 per share FY 2009;FY2010 & FY2011. The least was N1 per share FY 2014.
The change in business from downstream to upstream and the acquisition of assets of multinationals like Conocco Philips apparently took a huge toll on the company's cash position which affected its operations. Again, numerous issues with major shareholders and SEC also dragged the company down. It is not easy for a company to pay the equivalent of USD600m to one single shareholder and not feel the impact.
However, the company seems to have overcome these challenges with a new lease of life and the strategic acquisition of ENI/NAOC assets. It also paid off most of its commercial loans.
Afrexim Bank directors are no fools to give a loan of USD800m to a company that has no good prospects. Recently, the company pre-financed the FGN with about USD500m loan. These are signs that there could be something coming up that we may not be fully aware of as at now.
If not for the issue of delisting, Oando would be selling well above N25 by now. Unless we are saying that things will never ever improve in the company because Wale Tinubu is the CEO! He was the CEO when the company was paying dividends.

Bottom line:
Every investment appraisal methodology (e.g. past financial results or future earnings, performance etc.) has its merits and downside. Chose the one that favours you; float with your money or sink with it!

Choiceguy:
Hope is not a strategy,always go with what is on the table because of unforseen circumstances.eg insecurity etc that can affect performance.

No one has said anything here about hope being a strategy.
The ''insecurity etc. that can affect performance'' is also talking about potential future occurrence or events that affect profits.
It is a known global principle that investing is always more futuristic than the past . That is why each company will prepare a prospectus for each public or rights offer to inform the public about the future prospects of the company.
It is not always about past performance only.

There is also something called ''insider information'' which may not be known to the investing public at a point in time.
Again, it is a free market and people have varied reasons/strategies based on privileged knowledge, information, investment goals and objectives, as well as the timing or tenure of the investment.
Some would buy a near-dead stocks at very cheap price now, and sell at massive gains in future when the company's performance improves.
Others would wait until when the company is doing very well and then buy the stocks at a higher value.
Intl Breweries, Hone-well Flour Mills etc. are also going through some restructuring and their prices are very low now.
But Oando is not for those who want to make huge profits in the short term. Be ready for the long haul because it would take time.
Go check the quantum of viable oil reserves that Oando commands; that is the key thing to its future prospects.