₦airaland Forum

crownprince2017:


I ve given u the two conditions that can warrant that.. ones q1 results hit the market, bye bye to buying presco at sub 2k..

Anyhow you choose to spin it this baby is going down

crownprince2017:
Even long term, presco can never be priced at 850 except COVID like issue or serious natural disaster affect the operation of the company.

If Presco is priced at 850 that ecobank will be worth close to nothing based on fundamentals.

Time will tell

Now I'm even more convinced that I'm right

unite4real:
we never mentioned long term trend. We were all about the current price actions in the market between Okomu and Presco.

No one can guarantee a long term price.

below was my quote

Wahala pro max

unite4real:
PRESCO has gained 10% now N1,871.20

You are using one day price action to determine long term trend?

unite4real:
Even if we consider a modest 12x multiples, it means that for Presco to trade at N850, the EPS has to drop from over N134 to N70 annualized. Is the business having any fundamental challenge to warrant this sort of performance?

Bottom line is Presco cannot drop a 50% from current price to dip to N850 per share without the business undergoing some distress.

I respect your opinion though I don't agree with it. Time will tell if you are right

unite4real:
t N850 Presco PE ratio should be 6.3x. Even in the worse market downturn, Presco has not traded at such multiple. With the Institutional investors, HNI and FPIs who understands the fundamentals lurking around the corner, the will never allow the price to get to such a price point before they swallow all such offers.

You forget E in PE is expected to come down

unite4real:
Meaning Presco should sell for N850 from current price?

I laugh

Price is just a number. Look at the pe ratio and you will see a very different picture

Joyful365:
The likes of Ellah Lakes, Presco, Aradel, Guinness, Okomu, MTN, and Access Bank will shed at least 50% from their all time highs when the time comes. Watch out and check the charts

With the exception of Access and MTN I agree with this. I will go further and say they will lose more than 50% from their current prices.

Slammmmmmmm:
Okomu's real price should be 1588 or so... so it is still trading below Presco

I am really curious, How do you people arrive at these prices?

unite4real:
ok.
it closed N1710 today and i can bet it will still not go down to that level of N1400 - N1500.

There is no way Okomu will be selling above Presco at this point.
This alone is a catch

Is it possible they could both go down?

Asking for a friend

Sunrisepebble:
At 1,400-1500 I will re-enter

What's the rush, it will range trade for a while.

faoogoke:
No be only you, me too!

That smart lady ZAIN ought to be here. How I love her analysis.

You were on SMN as well? Wow!

Audacius:
Incredibly nostalgic. Just knowing such exist. Like an e-cemetery.

That old lingo: "Thanked 200 times".

That forum changed my life. Made life long friends or should I say acquired new brothers

zendi:
Senior Analyst Emma said the same thing in different words=

Oando insiders and minorities are playing different games.

Una no go kee pesin wit laff.

visit the OANDO thread on SMN via wayback machine and read through. You will understand why I genuinely feel sorry for people investing in OANDO

Please does anyone have a link to the Transcorp earnings call?

Frangel:
Actually, Retained Earnings is positive but Other Reserves is negative. (See Statement of Changes in Equity for Q32025).

Q4 Financials are not detailed enough; they lumped Retained Earnings and Other Reserves which is negative.

I think a good call.
Na their naija operations/results nor dey give joy.

Thanks for this.

yMcy56:
Ok boss, by your own calculations and metrics, what should be the fair value sir?

You can pls reply on NGXForum sir

Responded

zendi:
Oando to the moon one day.

Via NEWS of significant debt reduction thro Epic Fury windfall.

If the windfall loot no vanish enter Bermuda Triangle

Exactly. Wale making money and Oando shareholders making money are two different things.

mikeapollo:
Timing is key in this.
Access' results may come out in few days. If CBN approves and their dividend is attractive, the price would jack up.
@Bagwa says Oando is planning to announce dividend soon (not yet confirmed, but he seems to know a lot about the firm.)

Yea, it it's very tricky decision. I would dump the Oando sha. Would probably hold on to access. Then again I sold access few weeks ago to buy ETI but I'm not the smartest cookie in the jar

Itzlinda:
Thank you. I'll trim my access and oando and buy eti.

If they solve the retain issue. We might have 30-50% upward price growth

Access is also cheap oh BUT its return on equity is nonsense

OANDO has fraudulent management so I don't bother looking at it

mikeapollo:
But Zenith pays higher dividends than GT?

I dont care about dividends. I do care that other market participants care about it though.

I sold Zenith and bought ETI partly because I believe ETI would soon go on full bid but also because Zenith is about to pay dividends and I know a lot of people are waiting for dividends before they sell so I want to sell before them.

As una dey look market I dey look una

yMcy56:
Offers available for ZENITH
It doesn't always have the guts to overtake its boss, GT 😁

Zenith is less efficient than GTB and as such should trade at discount. ETI is more efficient than Zenith but less efficient than GTB.

I am using return on equity to measure efficiency

Itzlinda:
I'll buy now

I really no wan post analysis on this forum because of it can't be easily referenced in the future. But I will make an exception now.

ETI is cheap because of its negative retained earnings (hence no dividend). Now that negative retained earnings seems to be turning positive at least in its Naira result but is still negative in USD terms. I am waiting for the audited results to understand why that is.

Retained earning and Reserve -$148,264,000
Retained earning and Reserve +N2,552,212,916,000

You can check for yourself here
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45990_ECOBANK_TRANSNATIONAL_INCORPORATED-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf

Now I have asked around and I was told its because of exchange rate translations, but the reason no too make sense.
Anyway thats the risk with this.

Now the good news is that irrespective of the figure now, the trend is positive and retained earnings is appreciating in both currencies.

yMcy56:
Lol
This is the same VFD that was selling at circa 200 before the bonus issues ..

Oga Emma said some people have faith, we are still exercising our faith...
Faith can move mountains....😁

Jokes apart, it's not only fundamentals that moves a stock, lots of other positive components does....
I'm aware you're a guru sir.....but some things may defy logic in this market....

I no be guru oh. I just follow Price to earning, price to book and return on equity religiously. There is nothing special in all my talk. I just look at those numbers and ignore most of the noise

handsomebolanle:
It’s a good company with prospect and good management. I’m very much interested in buying more into this company.

Madam Mercy is someone I trust when it comes to identifying undervalued companies. Based on her mentioning the stock I actually added it to my spreadsheet. I Agree with you that the company could be a future star but I will wait till quarterly numbers start looking very sexy. The good thing about the NGX is that the market is slow to react to good quarterly results. So if a company releases good quarterly results you typically have months to buy in before the market reacts.

feelamong:
I like how you keep talking up your bag....

#NotMonkeyHunting

Yes oh! I will shamelessly promote my baby. Once upon a time I shamelessly promised GTB at 38 got out at 70+. Used to loot to buy Zenith which I shamelessly promoted at 60 got out at 92. Now I've taken my Zenith loot and bought ETI at 46 which I'm shamelessly promoting, I wonder where I will get out of this one.


Funny enough I think I'm the only one here who proudly States the price he buys on the day he buys. I maybe mistaken but I've not noticed anyone else do it. In those famous words, go and verify.

Anyway I love hearing the negative feedback. It makes me understand why the stock is cheap and identify who the future buyers will be.

PS have you bought your ETI yet?

yMcy56:
GT: 119.50
ZEE: 113.30
Gap closed!!

Who's the Oga?
Will know as time goes on....
GT might not want to release the title so easily anyway 😁

All those excess billions, make Dem bring them come VFD o 😁

You and this your VFD. The fundamentals are not so attractive oh

samarine:
Zenith smoking +10% with all eagerness.
Class of #100

Seems bank money is now real money.

Cant wait for ETI to lift off. ETI should be trading above Zenith but below GTB.

Have you bought your ETI yet?

#Chilling

Mankind2024:
Unfortunately, the banking industry is the only sub-sector where the share price has never traded at its fair value.
The reason is largely due to the exaggerated cost of running the business. The CEOs are overpaid and bloated with cash — essentially living with a financial 'pot belly'

These sort of reasons only make me more bullish on the sector and the stock. As I said many moons ago, lets be watching

jonnysessy:
I have been in Zenith long enough to know what they can do. I also bought around that N60 price. I bought some N70, N75, N80 and even N87. But, it keep looking good to me because i know their antecedents. I just want others to enjoy what i have been enjoying. I am a dividend investor . i am no prophet but i see Zenith Bank upstaging GTCO sometime. I don't have any analysis to back this up.

You have really harped on this ETI, i think i should take a good look at it now. My only problem with them is they hate to declare dividend, i have been in and out of the stock. But, there is always a room to come back to any stock.

I have been in and out of ETI as well but now I'm in for good. Zenith price will not surpass that of GTB but ETI price will surpass that of Zenith. I can give fundamental reasons for this but only on www.NGXforum.com

Ask there and you shall be answered

ProphetUtuocha:
Ordinarily, ETI would have been a decent play but unfortunately it has an elephantine leg that has weighed it down. Until it resolves the multiple issues tormenting its Nigeria operations, the bank will continue to drag behind its peers! Sad

Just the way I like it.

jonnysessy:
Zenith Bank for N100 today.

If you are not in, you can still jump in (monkey hunting ). I believe the dividend will be worth your while.

Why chase a moving bus? I was screaming Zenith at N60 for fundamental reasons. If you are looking for what to enter today go and buy ETI at N47. ETI fundamentals are a lot sexier than Zenith was at N60.

Heck ETI should be trading above Zenith