₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
I do it manually.

It takes less than 15 minutes to do it manually

People don lazy.

Doing it manually is the way to go. You catch things others miss. For example, FCMB annualize their EPS in their quarterly reports or there are now companies that use a weighted average outstanding shares in calculating EPS. These sort of things give the wrong impression as to how the company is doing.

My advise, spend a few hrs setting up a google docs spreadsheet with metrics you use in your analysis, once you have it setup, its just plug and play with the numbers. This spreadsheet can last many many years, and you can add more metrics as time goes by, I set up my spreadsheet few years ago and it has done wonders for me.

emmanuelewumi:
I also have Zenith, GTB, UBA and Stanbic IBTC shares

You na index investor

emmanuelewumi:
N1 million invested in Presco in January 2021 is now worth about N22 million in January 2026.


You can't get this from Banking stocks lailai

As someone who is bullish on banks I am excited reading this

pluto09:
Some stocks are already in a bubble while most are fairly priced.
PE of less than 5 can mostly be seeing in banking stocks.

Very true. You also need to factor growth in earnings

iskalamong:
Mathematically speaking, the probability of a major market crash is always low.

But because it can and may happen, smart investors (individuals or institutions) must have a plan for it so that they are not wiped out by it.

This is the reason for risk management: traders using stop losses, position sizing, limiting leverage and even insurance in general (beyond financial markets).

Stock markets go up over the long term. If there is zero risk of a correction or a market crash, then there will be no need for stop losses. Just buy with as much leverage as possible and become as wealthy as one can be.

Sadly, this is not the case. Thus, risk must be managed.

Cheers bro!

Iskalamong

.

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Please all this my talk of market crash is extremely premature oh!

Nigerian economy is just resuming growth. Even though it seems prices have risen, earnings have risen to justify the new prices. Stanbic for example released result today and despite the recent run up in prices the stock is trading with a PE of less than 5! That stock could easily touch N200 and still be buy.

So even though I believe we would end up in a bubble I don't think we would get there for another 5-7 years.

pluto09:
The bear will surely come but nobody can actually predict when it will happen.
I personally think the market dynamics have moved beyond what we had in 2008 and the possibility of having a major crash in the near future is a very slim one.

We are no where near bubble territory but I suspect we will get there. Once the money being made right now starts to hit main street, people start seeing their friends/neighbors buy new cars and mansions then you will really see interest. If I were to guess I would say we are a few years away.

crownprince2017:
I don't think because people want to open a trading account is a primary sign of a bubble.

We should be guided by price of stock being the function of earnings, large deviation from this should specify a problem that must be explain by other factors which must be logical. illogical explanations should be enough for an informed investor to stay away from such companies.

Singing bubble at any slight opportunity make the market looks as a difficult game and chase people away.

My ultimate signal to flee to cash is when my mother calls me and asks how she can invest.

So for me this is how it works, markets start to do well; then my siblings hear about it through their friends etc. They then call me and ask how can they invest and what should they buy. I give them something, they make some money , and then they tell my mother. The minute my mother calls me and asks how she can be involved, I RUN AWAY.

This has worked with crypto and the stock market.

Right now I am looking at the market. When the madness starts I stop looking at the market and I start looking at market participants. The madness has not started oh. Those who were around in 2008 will testify as to how crazy things get. People were bribing to be involved in private placements. Something tells me we will get there with this boom cycle. It may not be soon but we are going there.

Do you remember that there was a time people were buying crypto accounts?

Markets do get crazy

iHaveMadeiT2:
The banks have made it. We have eyes on sectors or coys that are in the process of making it so we can jump on the bandwagon and make it together

No wahala. We are here for you people

yMcy56:
Boss, but financial literacy is not bad nah.....
We still have small percentage of people who have knowledge about investing and it needs to increase.....
The only way those guys are going about it, or hijacking it to promise mouth watering gains is the area that needs be addressed.....
This forum and yours too can contribute to setting the records straight I blvd (of course the platform and this thread have been doing just that). 😊

Stock market is about investing and not a get-rich-quick place.

Boom and burst cycles are guaranteed in markets. Part of financial literacy is having the discipline to be invested in the burst part of the cycle as well as the boom. It is very good that people are getting interested in the stock market but how many of them will still be interested when the burst part of the cycle comes?

iHaveMadeiT2:
Meanwhile, we're watching the insurance sector now, especially Sunu

Make una watch banks na

yMcy56:
Lol.
Someone close, a distant neighbor called me yesterday that she would come and see me over the weekend to explain these things to her...
That someone somewhere told her to be trading stocks and she now remembered me that has told her about investing a long time ago but she refused....
I was almost begging her to even open a trading account even if she didn't fund it, let it be there, so that once she changed her mind, she can fund it.......
Always sending various Public Offers to encourage her but yet not bulging......
Na yesterday she remembered say she get my number.....😁
I've been thinking of the excuse I'll give to avoid meeting with her....😁

Meanwhile, at least if they're trading, let them remember to be taking profits along the way.....na the season be this btw...😊

Ok na. It is beginning to begin. I will jejely exit the market when people start bribing to open brokerage account or to bribing to invest in IPO.

This upcoming bubble will be EPIC!!!!!!

aj8:
Agba, can the market be wrong? Price is arrived at by the forces of demand and supply right, driven by what? Our job is to guess the market as best as we could, in direction and stations, and sometimes on time of arrival or departure in whatever direction up or down. That’s how money is made in the market. The smart sometimes get it right and many times the smart don’t but remain smart if the losses are less than the gains in the market for them to remain profitable. The various analysis help to unravel this mystery, TA, FA, etc. Trying to make sense of something that a lot of sometimes look chaotic, but actual not, but simply the reflections of human emotions at the market. What would you then say of Tantalizer PE? The PE simply says, how long the market is ready to wager a return on investment in years based on earnings . It’s silly to expect anyone to wait 100 years if not that the smart person buying believes it will improve quite a lot in the future. If PE is today 100 and earnings doubles, it will half, and what if it quadruples… ? As new data comes in the market will adjust . NCR will too but probably not below 21.93 x 4 or 5 = Range of 87.72-109.65 until new data or information emerge. Sell off will bring it down to an equilibrium.

I am willing to wager that over 90% of participants on the NGX do not calculate the PE ratio of what they buy or sell

Agbalowomeri:
Una go still use this thing confuse unasef or na confirmation bias. From -22 to - 2 is 18 and not -22

Na bull market things

pluto09:
It is really crazy.
I understand a stock can attain any ridiculous price in a bull market with no tangible reason but the attempt to justify some ridiculous prices with some non-existing fundamentals is sickening to say the least.

People don't deliberately lose money. They rationalize the irrational and make bad decisions. That is where discussion forums become very useful. It allows one the ability to get other opinions. Smart people would take the counter narratives and re-evaluate their position.

pluto09:
Are you just being sarcastic here?
eps for q4 2025 is a loss of about N4

You go fear bull market analysis

yMcy56:
The stock NCR moved from loss to profit in the FYE and made good revenue...
That's something
Also considering the OS which is just 108M, with the substantial shareholder's holding over 73% of it, I don't really see them releasing it just like that.....
The news of bonus issue may make it a toast the more...
That's how I viewed it.....
The fact remains that the stock stood out irrespective...... hopefully, Artleos will restructured it the more...😊

Thanks for this explanation.

awesomeJ:
Just 111x PE na.

Some people's portfolios here gained more than the N192m the company made for the whole of 2025.

Lets see how easy it will be to get out of this stock now.

crownprince2017:
Correction is part of the game, you can never say when it will come, stop making it look as if it's a bad thing. Infact, to some of us, it tell us how healthy the market is.
Let the correction come...

Please when did I say or imply that it is a bad thing?

Agbalowomeri:
Fair price N40

Bargain price N20

I'm with you on this. Results are proving what I suspected. There economy is recovering but the market (excluding zenith and access bank) is over priced.

Correction loading

Streetinvestor2:
I don't think so.The facts remains MM releases 100k units daily just to move the price when u look at the number of units it trades daily.

Is that manipulation?

Streetinvestor2:
Scoa has done 100 % since I quoted u on it.Manipulation is real on ngx

I'm just curious, was there manipulation during the bear market?

ProphetUtuocha:
Let the wise sow
---

Behold, a season of strength rises for Access Bank.
What was once steady shall become mighty.
From discipline, scale, and silent accumulation, value shall awaken.

The market shall look again
and what was overlooked will be repriced.
Patience shall be rewarded,
confidence shall be justified,
and momentum shall follow fundamentals.

In due time, the price shall not merely rise
it shall transform.
What stood at one shall stand at two,
and the towers of expectation shall rejoice.

Let the watchers be glad.
Let the long-term holders smile.
Let the towers stand tall and happy.

So it is spoken.

May those that have ears hear and sow!

I just looked deeper at this company and I see where this prophecy is coming from.

Streetinvestor2:
Whr u wan see bumper dividend from access. No wahala time will tell

Last year they earned N16.71 and paid out N2.50 as dividend; That's approx 15% pay out ratio. This year I am estimating that they will earn N10.67. Using the same pay out ratio I am expecting N1.60 (remember they didn't pay interim). Given my entry price of N22.90 I am looking at a yield of 7%.

Now, it is also very possible that with all the forbearance issues clarified and the Macro economic environment looking positive, they might decide to pay out more. After all retained earning is up about 40% from last year (N28 per share).

Streetinvestor2:
Bros na jijo you don turn at old age..lol
You sold monkey to buy baboon

Yes oh. JIJO dey sweet. And make I tell you one secret, age na just for body. I still feel like a 23 year old.

With regards to Ecobank I will buy back but the potential bumper dividend that is coming with access is too juicy to miss.

With Ecobank I'm sure there is no dividend this year so there is still time

Panadee:
No longer ETI/Ecobank

Nope. Sold and bought access last week

egwue:
I have some fund available to me on short term basis. My investment goal is dividend and capital preservation. Just wondering if buying Access Bank at the current price is a good idea. Any advice from this forum will be highly appreciated.

Buy Access bank

Monibabakan:
I can remember it was one of those stocks mentioned by OGG then and as usual his recommendation was attacked by some folks. I bought 4m units @ 21k and sold @ 23k, the rest today they say is history . Lesson learned already, we moove

The only person that consistently buys at the bottom and sells at the top is a lair.

If you have stayed in the market and not made silly moves, odds are your return would be close to what you think you missed

KarlTom:
Can't blame them. There is still uncertainty about how much dividend will be paid.

I expect the sector to join after BMs...

I agree. I have started taking steps in anticipation of positive dividend surprises

awesomeJ:
3 sessions this week, and the index hasn't even gained 200 points!! Less than 0.1%

I just noticed. I have a feeling we are about to see some blood.

unite4real:
when it comes to Dividend yield, ETI is nowhere. Its yields are like the insurance companies

They asked for non dividend paying stocks

Kesta22:
Please house. Any non dividend paying stock that has potentials to grow this year?

Ecobank (ETI)

HesInMe:
I thought your conviction was valuation-based. You've been right so far. Stick to it na.

And promote Access while you're at it, as that stock is also Pan-African and "cheap."

This game is an art not a science. Valuation is my guide but I also look at what is happening around me to try and guess where the growth will come. For example, I cant help but notice that most Nigerians are dependent on Fintechs for their basic financial transaction needs. What I have noticed is that a lot of those temporary accounts that these apps give me are based with WEMA bank. That has put WEMA bank on my radar.

Funny enough from a forward PE basis Zenith bank became expensive than WEMA bank today. HOWEVER!!!! Wema bank has not yet released audited results so they most likely have forbearance issues so I cant really trust the numbers. and so on and so on..... I hope you are now seeing how my thought process works.

Valuation is the ultimate guide but there are a lot of unspoken things that guide that valuation. This is why forums like this are invaluable to me. You guys give me a perspective that the numbers simply cant give me.