₦airaland Forum

Locotrader:
Risk-averse investor.
Always preserving capital.
Investing in low risk equities and fixed Income instruments.

Always in fear.
Always seeing bears

You must be old man joor

I was just about to say you must be young

Locotrader:
Fixed deposit I don chop 23% since and clean mouth you dey make mouth now for 15-17%

You do realize we are not competing against each other right?

Agbalowomeri:
Una get money for here o

My brother!!! Me wey be dey feel like Don Dada with my N100k portfolio

emmanuelewumi:
I don't think the insiders will buy the offer, most of the current shareholders are not buying, but are waiting for the standby investors.

My Presco right is over N20 million, I have money for part of the right and had to get a loan of N8 million for the balance.

Yet to see a shareholder of Ellah who got a loan to buy the public offer

Una no dey fear kidnappers Sha.

Streetinvestor2:
Another angle here.How do u determine which life worth more in this context. Then again it is ur opinion or how u see life

How rich a community is determines how economically relevant the members of that community are. I saw somewhere that more people were killed in Sudan in one week of that war than were killed in the entire Gaza war, but because the people of Sudan are economically irrelevant in the world there was no outrage.

America doesn't give a hoot about christian lives in Nigeria. They are thinking long term and they realise that it is better to kill this crisis now rather than watch Northern Nigeria turn to another Afghanistan. If Boko Haram were blowing up oil pipelines trust me Nigeria would have found a solution since. But as things stand right now a bunch of poor people are killing another bunch of poor people.

mikeapollo:
How could you say such or describe people, human beings as ''economically irrelevant population'' of Nigeria?
These people are farmers, they are traders, they are consumers, they are teachers, students, etc. They contribute to the economy and GDP of the nation.
The performance of stock markets (all over the world) is not only about earnings of companies. Stock markets are driven by news, information among other factors.
If we are fortunate to be living in the city, let us appreciate people living in remote parts of the country, they also contribute to the economy and cannot be described as ''economically irrelevant''.
News of insecurity in the nation surely affects foreign investments

Streetinvestor2:
It is obvious u can do anything to get this money. So thr are economically irrelevant population.
I guise u and family are the relevant population because u have money or make money

I guess both of you missed the part of my post that said "As sad as this sounds". The fact of life is that some lives are worth more than others. We don't have to like it or agree with it but that is how the world works. You can choose to be idealistic or choose to be pragmatic.

mikeapollo:
True. Insecurity in the nation is having a toll on NGX

As sad as this sounds, the fact is that so far the insecurity is affecting only the economically irrelevant population of Nigeria and as such I don't see it having much of an impact on the earnings of companies on the NGX

chimex38:
... every moment creates an opportunity..

We will recover.
We're still far from the worst.

I think we are close to or at the bottom for some stocks, obviously Zenith Bank is one of them. It could trade sideways here but I don't see it going below N54.

In fact crypto has started bouncing back so tomorrow would most likely be positive

emmaodet:
I am not arguing with you bro rather learning.

I understand. So take a wild guess as to what I would reference

emmaodet:
Annual growth rate with which metric? gdp or population growth rate?

This na why I no like to dey too argue for internet. Given the context of the conversation take a wild guess a to which metric I would have quoted.

chimex38:
As NGX dey dance skelewu without direction.
Naija matter don take over

Bring back the Bull!!

I buy more Zenith bank today. My final purchase sha. So as market dey consolidate people dey take poition

mikeapollo:
Please, don't let us allude Dangote Refinery to any incentives from GEJ.
Several licenses for refineries were issued by FG but nothing came out of the exercise. There were no incentives to anybody. GEJ wanted to remove the subsidy but it was still based on importation of refined products with no end in sight.
Dangote took the decision to build his private refinery after the botched attempt to buy FG refineries. His initial destination was Ogun state but former Governor Amosun frustrated him, hence Governor Tinubu came in with more favourable terms and better cooperation. That is how he sited it in Lagos.
With the benefit of hindsight, GEJ's presidency was better than Tinubu's presidency (so far)., but GEJ did not give any incentives to Dangote refinery. Dangote himself has talked about the refinery many times and he always mentioned Tinubu as the person that identified with his vision to establish the refinery and he acknowledges him for that.
Like I used to say, Tinubu did well as governor, but he has failed as a president

This opinion is at huge variance from reality. Lets just agree that we are where we are and we should try and profit from where we are

mikeapollo:
We have never made the right decision! Even up to date, the FG never made the right decision.!
The only right thing that happened, maybe by providence or luck, is that Dangote built a functional refinery! That is our saving grace, which makes it seem as if the govt made a right decision.

I dont know how well you follow govt policy but two things happened after the #OccupyOjota Protests; firstly GEJ made funding for the Almajiri schools a priority and secondly they pushed for incentives to be given to Dangote, or anybody, to build a refinery.

The first was because the government realized that it would be next to impossible to develop the country given the level of ignorance the citizens displayed during the protests. And the second was a bid to give the country's economy a fighting chance when the collapse inevitably happened.

What you call luck is actually a well thought out plan to cushion the effect of the ignorance of the average Nigerian on economic policy.

Most Nigerians think their government is stupid/wicked when the reality is that the biggest problem we have as a nation is that Nigeria is a country where you have to fight/trick the people to help them.

Dangote refinery was never luck. It was well thought out policy

mikeapollo:
Fair enough.
We should just be mindful of how we parrot some economic terminologies and jargons that do not align to our situation. It is not everything the IMF/World Bank tells us that makes good economic sense, so we should be bold to pick the right ones and reject the bad ones.
For instance, they would always advise African countries to devalue their currencies so their goods and exports could be more competitive on the international market, but they would never advise the Europeans to do same.

I hope you don't think I believe we made the right decision? That decision has caused thousands of deaths and immeasurable hardship on millions of Nigerians. But ultimately it was Nigerians that made the decision and it is Nigerians that are suffering the effects.

At the end of the day fuel subsidy is gone but it just took total economic collapse for Nigerians to finally see what their leaders at the time saw. Now we have finally made the right decision I have come back to profit from it. Same way when i saw that we were making the wrong decision I left the country financially and watched as all hell broke loose from the sidelines.

mikeapollo:
How do you expect rational citizens of an oil-producing country to understand or accept liberalization of the energy sector based on endless import of refined petroleum products, and ever-weakening forex rates?
Does it make any economic sense to you, if you are not into importation of refined products?
Liberalization should be based on domestic refining of crude, to serve as a spring board for further value addition in the energy value chain, which the govt failed to do with the 4 refineries until Dangote refinery came on board.

We made the decision and we are where we are. At the end of the day a country is governed by minority say majority way. I am not in the business of telling people I told you so. I am in the business of taking care of myself and my family. Nigerians can decide what they want and I am in the business of crafting and executing a plan that will ultimately make myself and my family make the best of whatever decision Nigerians choose to make.

Locotrader:
0.40 buy
0.60 sell.
With other applicable charges,buy is around 0.81 and sell around 1%.

That's for Atlas portfolios

Thanks for this

Locotrader:
A good profit if she is using Atlas portfolios

What are their transaction fees like

BabsO2:
Assuming the growth rates are accurate. And even discounting start points of growth GDP of $1x billion or $100x billion. Ask yourself the source of the growth. That can reveal if it’s a sustainable or non sustainable growth.

If Nigeria’s growth was mostly underpinned by oil & gas sales with little development of production capacity in goods and services through hrs of labor (physical and intellectual). Then that growth is fluke.

China’s growth is underpinned by human labor (physical & intellectual) on many fronts. I watched a video that says China is currently decades ahead of the Western world in producing many (not all) high tech stuff. That in the next 10 years Chinese car makers will overrun most global car makers…..China strategically developed key strengths in x y x. These are what underpins the 9% growth for China.

I don't know how old you are but the growth was largely driven by telecoms liberalization and bank consolidation. The next step to push to industrialization was liberalization of the energy sector but the people resisted the govt when they tried to implement the reforms.

The people resisted because they failed to understand that their decisions ultimately affected their future. Now that the future is here the people are learning and crying. This is how nations are built. Nigerians are now learning that there are future consequences to their current decisions.

Ginalex:
Ar this point, na to remove any emotional attachments to any stock o. Zenith that I bought for 55 I sold for 61.70 today. I initially had UBA at 39.5 and exited at 42.15 last week... It's not looking like I made a bad decision to do so. The goal is to re-enter lower than I did the first time. Na First bank movement I no understand. My wacc has been on 31.50 since, yet the stock no gree move up or side. Despite the heavy bids.

By the time you take away transaction fees are you making any money?

Harddiskng:
He is right though. For example you can’t compare 9% of 100 billion to 7% of 100 million, they are worlds apart. Even the number you quoted i won’t call it progress. Why? Imagine in 2015 you owned a shop with goods worth 100k, 2016 you are now worth 107k, 2017 - 115k, 2018 - 122k. Would you think you are making progress?

You say “ Anyway Nation building takes decades and centuries so there is no rush”. Omo this is not the case for Nigeria. we really need a strong sense of urgency. Like next 5 years no nonsense urgent plan type thing. Nigeria is like a 19 old boy still in primary 4 and we are saying well at least he still in school.

Once again I don't know how to respond to this. Having a conversation with someone who due to a lack of understanding of the basics creates a straw-man argument is a recipe for pointlessness. Look at the time line I stated and look at the times you referenced. Do you see any difference?

With regards to the rest of the 100b to 100m discussion.... I will kindly ask that you watch a YouTube video as to what China has been through in the last 100 years

With regards to your 5 year plan; how do you get good leadership if your political process does not reward good governance?

My initial statement was pregnant; try and ask questions for clarity rather than dismiss

mikeapollo:
Big mistake in your analysis to just rely on growth rate
What you should ask is: 9% of what? 7% of what? Our economies are not of the same size and depth, hence Nigeria even growing at 10% annually for the next 50 years cannot meet China's success and achievements

I don't know how to respond to this

BabsO2:
Many don’t realize how much hardwork the Chinese have done over the decades and are still doing right now. A high proportion of their over 1 billion population work 12 hrs a day, six days a week! We are not used to such work intensity in Africa. Hence we have extremely poor infrastructure etc.

Between 1990 and 2010 China achieved an average annual growth rate of 9%. Between 2000 and 2015 Nigeria achieved an average annual growth rate of 7%.

We were on the path but there were two events that caused us to derail; first was stopping the government from removing fuel subsidy in 2012 and then the 2015 elections.

If we had gotten these events right then we would have been on the path but alas. Anyway Nation building takes decades and centuries so there is no rush

Agbalowomeri:
Aradel - N300
Sterling - N2
GTCO - N50
Zenith - N35
Transcorp - N12

No worry, DSS go soon come carry you. With these your price expectations you must know of some secret plans to declare civil war in the country

mikeapollo:
Do you really know what China has achieved with its over 1billion people?
We Nigerians just like to brag and boast sha!

I will not be dragged into a political discussion but I truly believe what I said

emmaodet:
We don carry mat come sit down gidigba.
We die here.
What farm did you do at Gboko? Animal husbandry or crop farming? Was it profitable?

The farm was in Nassarawa. Gboko (Benue state) was a different business.

My brother I don pin for Nigeria oh. The removal of fuel subsidy and removal of the FX peg is going to do wonders to our economy in the coming decades. If we can fix our politics in the near future... China's economic miracle will be nothing compared to what we will achieve.

ositadima1:
Most people don’t get it. We said as far back as 2023 that the market was undergoing a repricing. I used to buy Hero for ₦250, but it repriced multiple times , to ₦300, then ₦500 (₦400 in some places), then ₦800 (₦700 in some places), and finally to the current ₦1000.

It’s not just beer. Almost everything in the market has repriced. The same LG washing machine I bought for ₦40,000 is now ₦150,000. How do you expect the stocks of companies whose plants and physical assets have also repriced upwards to remain the same?

Like you said, much of the appreciation we saw may simply be repricing, not “growth” in the real sense. I don’t have the strength right now, but one way to look at it is to compare the price of these stocks from 2023 in dollar terms versus their current dollar value, assuming the dollar maintained constant value. (Yes, even the dollar has lost some value, but it’s still the best benchmark we have.)

When they say the Dollar is the global reserve currency it simply another way of saying the Dollar is the global benchmark

Streetinvestor2:
let look at your position based on my street analysis. You don't believe what is happening recent times has to do with CGT and blood Bath. You believe it is market cycle which means after bull season is correction cycle or bear cycle. My street sense tells me we never really had bull season since this government happened as we had bear season during Buhari. What I believe happened in the last 3 yrs was repricing of ngx assets due to devaluation and inflation on the street. So when did the bull cycle really happen that we have moved to opposite or different cycle.

You are spot on. If you have been in this market since 2015 you have probably lost money in dollar terms even though your Naira numbers will make you think you made a lot. I totally abandoned Naira assets in 2014/2015 and I only returned this year.

With regards to the Nigerian Bull market, we are still in the long term bull market. The index needs to touch 280k-300k for us to get back to 2015 levels. I strongly believe we will get there and surpass it but it will take a couple of years. This is why to me all these dips are irrelevant, because when you look at the macro economic situation you will see mostly upside.

I am investing in Nigeria because I truly believe that for the next couple of decades this is market will strongly outperform most stock markets

Willie2015:
Hi. It's a different ball game now. I used to drive from Makurdi via Keffi bypass to Kachia.. Kaduna.. Zaria to Funtua. .It's a suicide mission now... Funtua ..Bakori...Malumfashi ..Katsina used to be a peaceful zone. But now na den of bandits. Same thing for Funtua - Gusau.. and Katsina to Gusau.. Visitations to tht axis now will only be by flight....

I totally agree with you. I have abandoned business in Gboko because I cannot leave Abuja to visit the place for a few days. But all this did not start in the last 2 weeks.

As sad as this sounds the truth about Nigeria is that the Elite have learned to thrive irrespective of how much the poor suffer.

Una wan drag me into politics sha

Streetinvestor2:
And u don't believe banks can close shops in some of this states because of insecurity. Do u know that some of the banks in this northern lga which I use to participate gets thr funds from mostly daily markets or weekly. To now go to some of the market is beginning of wisdom .Ask the people who use to go to the various markets in niger,katsina, zamfara for grain business. Those locals don't have android phns and don't know what bank apps do.So banks have small branches around the markets for physical operations

What is new in all of this? All you are now witnessing is based on better media coverage. We have had a media blackout for a while now. So when EPS was growing in the last couple of quarters these things were still going on.

In any case no be bandits or CGT dey make bitcoin trade at 82k. People will create reasons for market cycles. Me, i will try my best to ignore the noise and trade the cycle.

P.S on my website I actually posted what I believe is causing the general market fall

Redoil:
why not access bank

Zenith bank is a more efficient bank than Access bank

Streetinvestor2:
I wish I understand this part of ur post.Then again u are in a safe country .why u japa to that place is a big ?.
I remember u had farm up north. Why did u abandon it again

I am in Nigeria oh! There is insecurity and general any howness in the country but that doesnt stop companies from making money. The biggest problem Nigeria has always had is that there is a huge disconnect between the oil economy and the majority of the people. The oil economy serves maybe 20m people and the rest of the country is a poo hole.

P.S I abandoned my farm because of insecurity.

Also the coward part is a joke oh! However I still believe we will see a bull run in the banking sector in December

Mpeace:
Lol. Them dey laf me when I was looking for my peace of mind by selling off. Now Una want join me for the sidelines.

Who peace of mind epp?