₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
Please, don't let us allude Dangote Refinery to any incentives from GEJ.
Several licenses for refineries were issued by FG but nothing came out of the exercise. There were no incentives to anybody. GEJ wanted to remove the subsidy but it was still based on importation of refined products with no end in sight.
Dangote took the decision to build his private refinery after the botched attempt to buy FG refineries. His initial destination was Ogun state but former Governor Amosun frustrated him, hence Governor Tinubu came in with more favourable terms and better cooperation. That is how he sited it in Lagos.
With the benefit of hindsight, GEJ's presidency was better than Tinubu's presidency (so far)., but GEJ did not give any incentives to Dangote refinery. Dangote himself has talked about the refinery many times and he always mentioned Tinubu as the person that identified with his vision to establish the refinery and he acknowledges him for that.
Like I used to say, Tinubu did well as governor, but he has failed as a president

This opinion is at huge variance from reality. Lets just agree that we are where we are and we should try and profit from where we are

mikeapollo:
We have never made the right decision! Even up to date, the FG never made the right decision.!
The only right thing that happened, maybe by providence or luck, is that Dangote built a functional refinery! That is our saving grace, which makes it seem as if the govt made a right decision.

I dont know how well you follow govt policy but two things happened after the #OccupyOjota Protests; firstly GEJ made funding for the Almajiri schools a priority and secondly they pushed for incentives to be given to Dangote, or anybody, to build a refinery.

The first was because the government realized that it would be next to impossible to develop the country given the level of ignorance the citizens displayed during the protests. And the second was a bid to give the country's economy a fighting chance when the collapse inevitably happened.

What you call luck is actually a well thought out plan to cushion the effect of the ignorance of the average Nigerian on economic policy.

Most Nigerians think their government is stupid/wicked when the reality is that the biggest problem we have as a nation is that Nigeria is a country where you have to fight/trick the people to help them.

Dangote refinery was never luck. It was well thought out policy

mikeapollo:
Fair enough.
We should just be mindful of how we parrot some economic terminologies and jargons that do not align to our situation. It is not everything the IMF/World Bank tells us that makes good economic sense, so we should be bold to pick the right ones and reject the bad ones.
For instance, they would always advise African countries to devalue their currencies so their goods and exports could be more competitive on the international market, but they would never advise the Europeans to do same.

I hope you don't think I believe we made the right decision? That decision has caused thousands of deaths and immeasurable hardship on millions of Nigerians. But ultimately it was Nigerians that made the decision and it is Nigerians that are suffering the effects.

At the end of the day fuel subsidy is gone but it just took total economic collapse for Nigerians to finally see what their leaders at the time saw. Now we have finally made the right decision I have come back to profit from it. Same way when i saw that we were making the wrong decision I left the country financially and watched as all hell broke loose from the sidelines.

mikeapollo:
How do you expect rational citizens of an oil-producing country to understand or accept liberalization of the energy sector based on endless import of refined petroleum products, and ever-weakening forex rates?
Does it make any economic sense to you, if you are not into importation of refined products?
Liberalization should be based on domestic refining of crude, to serve as a spring board for further value addition in the energy value chain, which the govt failed to do with the 4 refineries until Dangote refinery came on board.

We made the decision and we are where we are. At the end of the day a country is governed by minority say majority way. I am not in the business of telling people I told you so. I am in the business of taking care of myself and my family. Nigerians can decide what they want and I am in the business of crafting and executing a plan that will ultimately make myself and my family make the best of whatever decision Nigerians choose to make.

Locotrader:
0.40 buy
0.60 sell.
With other applicable charges,buy is around 0.81 and sell around 1%.

That's for Atlas portfolios

Thanks for this

Locotrader:
A good profit if she is using Atlas portfolios

What are their transaction fees like

BabsO2:
Assuming the growth rates are accurate. And even discounting start points of growth GDP of $1x billion or $100x billion. Ask yourself the source of the growth. That can reveal if it’s a sustainable or non sustainable growth.

If Nigeria’s growth was mostly underpinned by oil & gas sales with little development of production capacity in goods and services through hrs of labor (physical and intellectual). Then that growth is fluke.

China’s growth is underpinned by human labor (physical & intellectual) on many fronts. I watched a video that says China is currently decades ahead of the Western world in producing many (not all) high tech stuff. That in the next 10 years Chinese car makers will overrun most global car makers…..China strategically developed key strengths in x y x. These are what underpins the 9% growth for China.

I don't know how old you are but the growth was largely driven by telecoms liberalization and bank consolidation. The next step to push to industrialization was liberalization of the energy sector but the people resisted the govt when they tried to implement the reforms.

The people resisted because they failed to understand that their decisions ultimately affected their future. Now that the future is here the people are learning and crying. This is how nations are built. Nigerians are now learning that there are future consequences to their current decisions.

Ginalex:
Ar this point, na to remove any emotional attachments to any stock o. Zenith that I bought for 55 I sold for 61.70 today. I initially had UBA at 39.5 and exited at 42.15 last week... It's not looking like I made a bad decision to do so. The goal is to re-enter lower than I did the first time. Na First bank movement I no understand. My wacc has been on 31.50 since, yet the stock no gree move up or side. Despite the heavy bids.

By the time you take away transaction fees are you making any money?

Harddiskng:
He is right though. For example you can’t compare 9% of 100 billion to 7% of 100 million, they are worlds apart. Even the number you quoted i won’t call it progress. Why? Imagine in 2015 you owned a shop with goods worth 100k, 2016 you are now worth 107k, 2017 - 115k, 2018 - 122k. Would you think you are making progress?

You say “ Anyway Nation building takes decades and centuries so there is no rush”. Omo this is not the case for Nigeria. we really need a strong sense of urgency. Like next 5 years no nonsense urgent plan type thing. Nigeria is like a 19 old boy still in primary 4 and we are saying well at least he still in school.

Once again I don't know how to respond to this. Having a conversation with someone who due to a lack of understanding of the basics creates a straw-man argument is a recipe for pointlessness. Look at the time line I stated and look at the times you referenced. Do you see any difference?

With regards to the rest of the 100b to 100m discussion.... I will kindly ask that you watch a YouTube video as to what China has been through in the last 100 years

With regards to your 5 year plan; how do you get good leadership if your political process does not reward good governance?

My initial statement was pregnant; try and ask questions for clarity rather than dismiss

mikeapollo:
Big mistake in your analysis to just rely on growth rate
What you should ask is: 9% of what? 7% of what? Our economies are not of the same size and depth, hence Nigeria even growing at 10% annually for the next 50 years cannot meet China's success and achievements

I don't know how to respond to this

BabsO2:
Many don’t realize how much hardwork the Chinese have done over the decades and are still doing right now. A high proportion of their over 1 billion population work 12 hrs a day, six days a week! We are not used to such work intensity in Africa. Hence we have extremely poor infrastructure etc.

Between 1990 and 2010 China achieved an average annual growth rate of 9%. Between 2000 and 2015 Nigeria achieved an average annual growth rate of 7%.

We were on the path but there were two events that caused us to derail; first was stopping the government from removing fuel subsidy in 2012 and then the 2015 elections.

If we had gotten these events right then we would have been on the path but alas. Anyway Nation building takes decades and centuries so there is no rush

Agbalowomeri:
Aradel - N300
Sterling - N2
GTCO - N50
Zenith - N35
Transcorp - N12

No worry, DSS go soon come carry you. With these your price expectations you must know of some secret plans to declare civil war in the country

mikeapollo:
Do you really know what China has achieved with its over 1billion people?
We Nigerians just like to brag and boast sha!

I will not be dragged into a political discussion but I truly believe what I said

emmaodet:
We don carry mat come sit down gidigba.
We die here.
What farm did you do at Gboko? Animal husbandry or crop farming? Was it profitable?

The farm was in Nassarawa. Gboko (Benue state) was a different business.

My brother I don pin for Nigeria oh. The removal of fuel subsidy and removal of the FX peg is going to do wonders to our economy in the coming decades. If we can fix our politics in the near future... China's economic miracle will be nothing compared to what we will achieve.

ositadima1:
Most people don’t get it. We said as far back as 2023 that the market was undergoing a repricing. I used to buy Hero for ₦250, but it repriced multiple times , to ₦300, then ₦500 (₦400 in some places), then ₦800 (₦700 in some places), and finally to the current ₦1000.

It’s not just beer. Almost everything in the market has repriced. The same LG washing machine I bought for ₦40,000 is now ₦150,000. How do you expect the stocks of companies whose plants and physical assets have also repriced upwards to remain the same?

Like you said, much of the appreciation we saw may simply be repricing, not “growth” in the real sense. I don’t have the strength right now, but one way to look at it is to compare the price of these stocks from 2023 in dollar terms versus their current dollar value, assuming the dollar maintained constant value. (Yes, even the dollar has lost some value, but it’s still the best benchmark we have.)

When they say the Dollar is the global reserve currency it simply another way of saying the Dollar is the global benchmark

Streetinvestor2:
let look at your position based on my street analysis. You don't believe what is happening recent times has to do with CGT and blood Bath. You believe it is market cycle which means after bull season is correction cycle or bear cycle. My street sense tells me we never really had bull season since this government happened as we had bear season during Buhari. What I believe happened in the last 3 yrs was repricing of ngx assets due to devaluation and inflation on the street. So when did the bull cycle really happen that we have moved to opposite or different cycle.

You are spot on. If you have been in this market since 2015 you have probably lost money in dollar terms even though your Naira numbers will make you think you made a lot. I totally abandoned Naira assets in 2014/2015 and I only returned this year.

With regards to the Nigerian Bull market, we are still in the long term bull market. The index needs to touch 280k-300k for us to get back to 2015 levels. I strongly believe we will get there and surpass it but it will take a couple of years. This is why to me all these dips are irrelevant, because when you look at the macro economic situation you will see mostly upside.

I am investing in Nigeria because I truly believe that for the next couple of decades this is market will strongly outperform most stock markets

Willie2015:
Hi. It's a different ball game now. I used to drive from Makurdi via Keffi bypass to Kachia.. Kaduna.. Zaria to Funtua. .It's a suicide mission now... Funtua ..Bakori...Malumfashi ..Katsina used to be a peaceful zone. But now na den of bandits. Same thing for Funtua - Gusau.. and Katsina to Gusau.. Visitations to tht axis now will only be by flight....

I totally agree with you. I have abandoned business in Gboko because I cannot leave Abuja to visit the place for a few days. But all this did not start in the last 2 weeks.

As sad as this sounds the truth about Nigeria is that the Elite have learned to thrive irrespective of how much the poor suffer.

Una wan drag me into politics sha

Streetinvestor2:
And u don't believe banks can close shops in some of this states because of insecurity. Do u know that some of the banks in this northern lga which I use to participate gets thr funds from mostly daily markets or weekly. To now go to some of the market is beginning of wisdom .Ask the people who use to go to the various markets in niger,katsina, zamfara for grain business. Those locals don't have android phns and don't know what bank apps do.So banks have small branches around the markets for physical operations

What is new in all of this? All you are now witnessing is based on better media coverage. We have had a media blackout for a while now. So when EPS was growing in the last couple of quarters these things were still going on.

In any case no be bandits or CGT dey make bitcoin trade at 82k. People will create reasons for market cycles. Me, i will try my best to ignore the noise and trade the cycle.

P.S on my website I actually posted what I believe is causing the general market fall

Redoil:
why not access bank

Zenith bank is a more efficient bank than Access bank

Streetinvestor2:
I wish I understand this part of ur post.Then again u are in a safe country .why u japa to that place is a big ?.
I remember u had farm up north. Why did u abandon it again

I am in Nigeria oh! There is insecurity and general any howness in the country but that doesnt stop companies from making money. The biggest problem Nigeria has always had is that there is a huge disconnect between the oil economy and the majority of the people. The oil economy serves maybe 20m people and the rest of the country is a poo hole.

P.S I abandoned my farm because of insecurity.

Also the coward part is a joke oh! However I still believe we will see a bull run in the banking sector in December

Mpeace:
Lol. Them dey laf me when I was looking for my peace of mind by selling off. Now Una want join me for the sidelines.

Who peace of mind epp?

Streetinvestor2:
To all may be concerned. I withdraw my December call on bull.The ngx has its political angle as someone who uses street analysis. The evil days are already here and can consume anything in the nation. This is what u get from a failed government. Today is Niger state.

COWARD!!!

As far as I am concerned nothing dey happen. Increasing my Zenith bank stake by 30%.

Agbalowomeri:
Bitcoin headed for 65k Lol

It will be $65k over priced

pluto09:
Banks shares respond more to dividends than they do to p.e or book value.
I am not sure if access will pay any dividend this current year and if they don't pay it will be a long journey unless we have a general bull run again.

The money I put in Access today is less than half my transaction cost for my Zenith Bank purchase. I did it just for fun hence I used Bamboo. If I make money I will do something nice with it. If i don't then I turn long term investor.

Anyway lets see how it goes

mikeapollo:
''Long-term'' or ''short-term'' is relative
From now up to January 1is more than a month, so it is still something that may require some patience.
Some traders may not want to hold for that long.

If one month is long term then the person better go open account on bet naija

pluto09:
Na those who don't know him dey argue with him 🤣.

Until DSS come carry our bros make e come explain

pluto09:
lol
The market dynamics have since shifted.
I am only looking to buy sugar at sub 50 and Aradel at sub 600.
The banking index is looking scary for me.

I was in gtb few days ago to do a transaction and the bank was operating fine. Nothing to fear. Index will do what index do. The real world business will do it's own things

Agbalowomeri:
Okay we go help you work on both

Oya sugar 40 here you come
Aradel 300 here you come

You get plans to cause civil war for this country?

The kind prices wey you dey call na war time market be that oh

pluto09:
I done dey learn patience from you
We dey wait

Crypto seems to have bottomed out. So no too dey patient again

mikeapollo:
Blessed are those who yield to the "Spirit" (note: caps, singular)
You may have to to explain the "spirits'' (plural) asking you to punt.
But Access Bank is solid if one can buy and hold for long term

There is nothing long term in this play. This stock will be trading 30% higher before Jan 1.

This is a purely speculative play. I didn't even use up to 1% of my portfolio. Just trying to entertain myself 😜

Agbalowomeri:
Village people

I just transferred money to bamboo and I bought. If heaven wants to fall let it fall. Entry price N21.25

Agbalowomeri:
Village people

The thing wey dey burst my head be say as market dey fall people are actually afraid. So people will rather buy a rising Access bank at N30 than a falling Access bank at N21. Even though its the exact same bank and the exact same earnings/dividend.

This game should be outlawed. its just too predictable