₦airaland Forum

abduleez1:
No offense man but it's kinda funny when I see someone comparing Homelander with Captain America.

Captain America stand no chance against Homelander, shield or not. Clever or not.
As if Homelander is slow.

Cap will get messed up in no time man. Their abilities, capabilities and strength ain't no match or even close.

Bro, remember that in endgame captain america became worthy of d hammer of Tor. Now he can control thunder. Leave matter, the fight will be very tough.

abduleez1:
LMAO, who give Captain Marvel strongest Avenger??

Did you watch "Avengers: Endgame", all hope was lost until Captain Marvel showed up.

Tolu121:
ya

AVENGERS will definitely win but with HOMELANDER it will be abit difficult cause he has no weakness unlike SUPERMAN.

Scarlet Witch can fùck him over with her abilities including telekinesis, energy manipulation, and some form of neuroelectric interfacing that allows her to both read thoughts and also give her targets waking nightmares, talkless of Captain Marvel which I think is d strongest avenger.

Tolu121:
did you say HOMELANDER is a parody of CAPTAIN AMERICA?

Are you shitting me? if HOMELANDER catches CAPTAIN AMERICA he will vaporise him

HOMELANDER is only parody of SUPERMAN

A PARODY can't be greater than its origin, so HOMELANDER is not parody of CAPTAIN AMERICA cause HOMELANDER will fvck him up within seconds...

Not really, both are equally strong. Homelander can fly and the laser eyes but captain america has the toughest shield made from an alloy of vibranium and adamantium. That makes the the shield so tough that not even Wolverine's claws can cut through it. And recently the hammer (Mjolnir) of Tor, God of thunder.

Captain america is very clever fighter. Also he is not a lone fighter. It would be more like the seven vs the avengers. Avengers would win without doubt.

Before you argue, I want you to remember that superman was almost vanquished by batman a mere human in the movie "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice".

If not because they shared same mums name, Martha, Superman own for don be.

Bratking:
This thread is filled with idiots...

Dude, give yourself a punch in the face, you brain needs it.

When everyone is an idiot and you the only same one, you may need to check yourself sir.

I know this is wrong but I am doing it any way cos this is one of d threads with d most decent and reliable people.

Does any one know about yellowcard.io ? A friend told me that I can directly fund my bitcoin account through our local bank transfer and so bypass some questionable middlemen. Is yellowcard legit?

Please I need brief answer, don't want to derail. Thank u.

Achilles100:
:'

watched 1 n 2 together so I understood it.

The watch season 3 now I'm lost, even went to YouTube to watch summary of 1 and 2, now I'm over lost.

I just keep am for corner. When the spirit ready, we go rugged am.

The way I understand it is that the show has 3 parallel universes or worlds. The other two were created by an experiment gone wrong in the third. Also these worlds have been in a loop for some time resetting to a particular date every time.

Adam and Eva have been manipulating each worlds reiteration and each other younger version, Adam trying to end the loop while Eva plotting in favor of the circle continuation.

Until that lady that managed the nuclear station (I forgot her name) figured out that world 3 was were it all began.

Finally, Jonas (World 1) and Eva (World 2) were sent to world 3 to prevent the scientist from developing the original time machine out of sorrow.

Every other thing is just feelers.

Hanna is a fine show, I liked it. I also liked the theme song, it is soothing.

Do not sleep, my starling
Sleep, my doe
She is wrapped in curtains
Laid in snow
She will bury you inside her fur

Do not sleep
She waits for you to sleep
Do not sleep
She waits for you to sleep

My breath you breathe
It will carry you
My breath you breathe
It carries you

Do not sleep
She waits for you to sleep
Do not sleep
My starling, do not sleep

RabbiDoracle:
So when we unify forex rates, we will not go into recession?

So long as we depend on oil, if oil crashes, this matter of devaluation and recession will still come up.

We don't have many options nah, what else can Nigeria export to the world in large quantities?

Even if we start trying now it will take years (atleat 10 or more) to develop a unique product that can hold neat market share. We are stock with oil revenue for a very very long time.

ojesymsym:
Thanks plenty

It is not in any particular order, what I do is if I find d book too hard I move over to the next or YouTube a little, then later come back to it.

chibjohn:
How did I know you got that from rule #1 if I haven't read it?
I don't use a single valuation method. It's always a combination of comparative ratios, historical performance and absolute valuation methods that depend on the stock and the sector being valued.
The bolded is not totally true. I have seen few stocks that passed the test. Abeg no vex. I just wanted you to understand our reality from what is written in the textbooks.

Can u please mention these stocks.

ojesymsym:
Where can I access some of these books? With the benefit of hindsight, in what order would you have read the books if you were just starting out today?

Like someone pointed up there I may not really know what am doing yet.

These are a few I have read:

* Trend qualification and trading.
* Trend trading set-ups.

* A trader's money management system.

* Why stocks go up and down.

* Rule #1.
* Value investing for dummies. (This one I will start this weekend)

* The little book that beats the market. (I used the concepts in this one to buy Vitafoam, Caverton, and redstarex. My Caverton is in d red sha)

* NSEMPA.

Jerekre:
WOW! Impressive

Na Corona cause all this things na, I was working from home, I had plenty time to read NSEMPA thread and other materials.

chibjohn:
You are seriously reading Rule #1 by Phil Town. Please don't forget the market you are investing on. To the best of my knowledge, this market isn't a market you just buy a stock and forget. Rule #1 was based on US stock market . Please don't forget that. Thank God you realized on your last statement.

Qwention I ask u, u no answer. Please read d book first before putting out erroneous comments.

Just so u know, if I strictly follow Rule #1 no stocks on the NSE would be worthy. No stock I analysed so far, passed the big five test. The valuation method he detailed in d book, is too conservative so much that u can hardly see any stock on the NSE trading close to that price.

Tvegas:
Lol I hope Osita listens to you as he is so engrossed with Phil Towns work.

Osita after you digest Rule#1 , add Rule#2 which says never sleep with your 2 eyes closed while trading the Nigerian stock market. It's a jungle in here.

I don hear u nah. I maintain that reading is the fastest way to achieve mastery.

Before February 2020, I knew zero about stocks, but I am currently 40% up on some of my investments with zero school fees. If that doesn't impress you nothing will.

It is a jungle alright but same rules ( risk-reward, TA, FA etc. ) apply.

emmanuelewumi:
Dividend stocks

But sir, if the sector is a growing one, paying regular dividends may not be that important.

At that stage such companies might be better than me at reinvesting the dividends.

Anyway, there are no such sectors or companies in the NSE right now.

BullBearMkt:
...I will not be surprised to hear Peroo had already bought SEPLAT at around N300 while calling out for Bargain Hunters to watch out at N150!!!

Understanding price actions might possibly help with a good entry price for Seplat.

From the 2016 LOW "Sir Peter" mentioned, the SP rallied to break the swing-high at (a) - Technically, this is a positive momentum. However, since then price has made series of lower-low & lower-high (Chart 1). This is a general outlook of stocks on NSE - Chart 2 shows SEPLAT comparison with NSE all share index.

Since price was rejected in Jan 2016 & a pullback was also rejected in August 2016, the intervals between the Highs of January's Price -Rejection & August Price-Rejection is now left by the SP as LIQUIDITY VOID. Any price rejection within this intervals will likely see the stock picking up momentum to the upside. If SEPLAT could end this month bullish, then, I will call the intermediate "bottom" at 300 (there about). & further price within the highlight a good buy as well.

For SEPLAT retrace N150 again! will mean the company doing well (financially/management) and I personally will not encourage anyone to buy the stock at that price until there is strength in the stock price again. Bargain or no bargain - it will be too risky to buy at N150 again!!!

I didn't really understand you point very well but I enjoyed reading the letters.

Donbrig:
University degree in Nigeria is highly exaggerated. Most Nigerians doing very well in businesses never went to university. I've personally never seen the four walls of a university classroom in my life , but virtually none of my friends who went to the university is doing better than me today. We should foucus more on vocational institutions, we need more training centres for our local technicians, plumbers, auto-mechanics, welders, fashion designers, carpenters, etc.

It is really heart-wrenching to know that some states in Nigeria today have more than 8 (ill-equipped) universities and don't have any vocational institutions for the youths. Education and Health centres should never be built by govt or individuals for profits, because these are core institutions that have more to do with humanity rather than profits.

The Igbos are one of the most successful tribes in Africa today due to their ability to learn a hand-work or trade, regardless of their background. University education shouldn't really be for everybody, I am not saying it is bad to get a university degree, but you can still excel in life without one.

You are lying bro, which sss3 student writes like this. Any way sha, maybe na because I go kpako secondary school. In my class back then if u dey write like this na most to enter uni, and them few.

chibjohn:
Yes all valuation have assumptions but the lesser the assumptions the more reliable the result will be. DCF valuation is mostly all assumptions and estimations. You must be a God to get all the assumptions right at the same time. Don't get me wrong, DCF valuation works for NYSE and developed markets where the economy is relatively stable and more predictable. It is not for NSE that is in an undeveloped economy without any foreseeable timeline for future growth. I use it seldomly just to compare with other valuation models. It's not to be solely relied on as far as NSE is concerned.

Please, can u list the other valuation models u use.

chibjohn:
Good job. I dont think DCF Valuation model works for NSE. There are a lot of assumptions before coming to it. Like my lecturer in uni will say "Assumption is the mother of all f*ck ups". So please don't duel so much on it.

All valuations have assumptions as their basis. Except you get eye way dey see tomorrow. You be babalawo?

onegentleguy:
U are doing great, but let me help refine a few lines for u.
In valuing an asset using the DCF method, the KEY to EFFECTIVE PRICING lies in;

1) The discount rate. ...what u intend to rake-off from the proposed investment in lieu of future risk.(benchmark of present to future value of money in view)
2) The growth rate. ...how u perceive of the coy looking into the future(efficiency in view)

With the 1st, I always advise folks to use a discount rate that beats the average of the sum of ur surrounding interest rate and inflation rate at the time. That way, u wouldve factored in all key surrounding risk factors into ur forecast.
...and a growth rate that's an average of, or a % discount from the assets current FCF growth rate.
That percentage discount can also be 100%... meaning u are assuming zero growth rate.(which is ur best bet)

With the DCF valuation method, the growth rate is usually the Achilles heel.
It pays to keep growth rate as low as possible. The higher you set the growth rate, the higher you set up the assets downside potential.
If and when a company looks to be undervalued with 0% growth rate, then u surely have more upside than downside.
...which is why u SHOULD use FCF growth rate and NOT that of earnings(EPS). Like I always tell folks; A coys earnings does not tell the whole story. It can always be manipulated.(either up or down)
Alternatively its even better to use C/S growth rate or change in CGPR but not EPS.

To illustrate;
If u use earnings growth rate for an asset with accelerated EPS that resulted from a cycle, one time event or an unsustainable rewarding environment(OKOMU and PRESCO comes to mind here), then u certainly would fall into a huge trap.
If u must utilize earnings growth alone, then do a scrutiny on the coy using EM/EPS BOOTSTRAPPING to guage its TRUE earnings power.

When u are done with 1 and 2 above, always use an MoS that's at least 3x ur discount rate. ...and where the business is seasonal, use an MoS of >4x ur discount rate.

If u follow up with the above guide, u'll find that DANGOTE CEMENT' FVE should even be slightly higher than ur estimate(they have cash)
...while a coy like WAPCO should have NO business selling for less than N23.85(assuming zero growth and adjusting for maximum risk) They have more than enough cash.

Finally, its important to note that the DCF formula is not subjective. ...it's something that u always need to refine to suite ur targeted asset, while seeking VALUE(risk-reward margin in view)
So don't take everything u read in a book to heart(including the one u are currently reading now)
Just seek to refine and model things to suite ur investment personality and goals.

Disclosure: For some genuine reasons, the DCF(though ok) is certainly not the best method to value coys in cement industry.
Otherwise u may not see the IMMENSE POTENTIAL in the coy with the current greatest value proposition in that sector- WAPCO !!

It is well.

Very insightful !

PETERiCHY:
If you put such EFFORT in doing DANGCEM VALUATION you will DISCOVER that it doesn't WORTH N50.

In 2007 DANGOTE bought BENUE CEMENT that was trading at N4 did his ABRACADABRA, renamed it DANGOTE CEMENT and enlisted @ N135 per share.

10years down the lane DANGCEM is still trading at circa N135 couple with countless DEVALUATIONS that has taken place within that period.

CAN'T you SEE that ALHAJI is playing TABLE TENNIS with his SHARESHOLDERS DESTINY


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Not quite.


Once again, I pulled Dangote Cement PLC annual reports from 2010 to 2019 and this is what i saw:

The big Five
Sales (revenue): growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 17.9% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
EPS: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 5.96% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Equity: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 17.43% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Free Cash Flow: growth (or contraction) for the last 9 years ==> 21.95% (Compound Annual Growth Rate).
Long Term Debt-to-Free Cash Flow: 0.55 (pretty good)

Notes:
Not bad as per Nigerian standard. Though, Sales, EPS, and Equity slowed down last year (2019) at -1.06%, -48% and -8.99% respectively. I assume the harsh economy took a toll on the stock.

Next, Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation

1.) Assuming 5.96% growth (EPS above) and 15% (MoS in view) rate of return projected for the next 10 years and then discounted for MoS. Buy price would be pegged at not more than 140.59 per share.

2.) Assuming 15% growth (Equity above) and 15% (MoS in view) rate of return projected for the next 10 years and then discounted for MoS. Buy price would be pegged at not more than 227.55 per share.

Conclusions: If you can snatch it at less than 140, u are very ok.

Also, better to buy when MACD, Stochastic and MA align and echo buy!







Due diligence applies as these numbers may be off the mark.

ojesymsym:
This your chart seems to suggest that non be today their wahala start

My English is poor, I know that. For example, the EPS growth above at -13.59% means compounding over d 9 years.

Assuming the EPS was 20 at -13.59 YoY then in the 10 year ==》 20 × (1 - 0.1359)^9 = 5.37.

From 20 to 5.37, just to make somethings clearer.

ojesymsym:
This your chart seems to suggest that non be today their wahala start

Oga na true, as at 2012 their share price was in d range of 260, he come dey fall reach 13 or so. Maybe, he don reach support.

Ok, here is my attempt at applying the Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method to Guiness Nigeria PLC.

I pulled their annual reports from 2010 to 2019 and this is what i saw:

Sales (revenue): YoY growth for the last 9 years: 2.07% rate per period of annuity.
EPS: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -13.59% rate per period of annuity
Equity: YoY growth for the last 9 years: 11.22% rate per period of annuity
Free Cash Flow: YoY growth for the last 9 years: -19.98% rate per period of annuity

***Mr Phil Town wouldn't touch this stock with a long stick at this junction.***

Next, Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation

1.) Assuming 5% growth and 15% (I used 15 to sufficiently cover MoS, marging of safety) YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 14.49 per share.

2.) Assuming 11.22% growth (Equity did 11.22% YoY in the last 9 years) and 15% YoY desired rate of return projected for the next 10 years, then buy price would be pegged at not more than 21.54 per share.

There is also another way of making the valuation as detailed in Rule One Investing book, i will try that later.