₦airaland Forum

Hunry:
ositadima1

for these leagues on Forebet(dot)com:
Italy Serie B
England League One
England League Two
England National League
Wales premier League

. Why do u focus on these league alone and not all available leagues that have 49% & above

I guess forebet is better at calculating outcomes for those leagues. I back-tested and found these consistent as you can see in my bar chart.

Then again, I might have been lucky (variance). So, I am following for now until I am reasonably sure it is skill and not just luck.

PECON1:
sharrap, book with this ur method,lets see whether it will play.

Small boy, you know you are immature when you talk to people without courtesy.

Hunry:
I mean to dwld d excel, want to test run it.
Also wen u go drop games (also add d stats behind ur choice)

The excel is in the attachment under the pix for you to download. I can tell you what i do so you can test it your self.

for these leagues on Forebet(dot)com:

Italy Serie B
England League One
England League Two
England National League
Wales premier League

For the 1X2 market for each game,

A) when the probability is greater than 49% (forebet).
B) when the the [(prob/100) x odd]-1 is positive (Note: prob is the one on forebet site while the odd is Bet9ja).

You back it, its value.

Some times two selections may be positive (eg both home and draw), you go for the highest.

Do this for all games in those leagues, overall you will make profit.

Dont use real money for now,

Hunry:
From ur image, red was higher than blue (8-3). That shows losses or am I missing something?

Would be nice if u drop 3-5 value games let me understand ur games and d odds.
Also nice if u attach d excel file for me. thanks

The excel is there nah, under the picture. Red is not losses o, red is number of games. There is one inverted blue bar, that was the loss.

PECON1:
guy show us ur millions ticket, stop disturbing our peace here.

I don show am before nah.

meshpips:
@ositadima1,

please come and let's put some real time work to the concept in this book.

Kindly check:

Cortulua vs Valledupar

1 X. 2

1.66/ 3.4/ 5.75

Their H2H history shows

21.74 % win for Cortula
39.13% draw
39.13% win for Valledupar

Where does value lie for this game?

CC : ositadima1

H2H history is not enough in my opinion.

Assuming the H2H probs are the true representation of the chances, then, draw and away hold value, with away holding the most.

EV(expected value) for home = .2174 x 1.66 - 1 =-0.36
EV for draw = .3913 x 3.4 - 1 =0.33
EV for away = .3913 x 5.75 - 1 =1.25

But there is catch, you would have to play many of these type of games to have an overall profit, why because variance will skew your results if your games are few.

certifiedvik:
wat r u saying sef

Go back to the post and read again. I refined my grammer small.

Hunry:
Very correct if not me, bigmex, ositadima1 for don be multi millionaires.

meshpips, punting na pure luck.

who remembers soluution, with all him analysis and 100% assurance. the 1st game crashed and d dude disappeared into d forest of abyss never to be seen again. LOL

even Felixbest with his 'never at a loss' strategy, d guy chop 5 straight losses.
him don abandon him thread since.

I no fit laff jare...

D fact remains, do some research then hope for luck.

Bro, football is not just luck, football is mathematics, at the heart of the punters game is value betting, being able to estimate probabilities better than the bookie. It doesnt matter how you go about it as some people use complex statistical approach others use their knowledge of the game. Bookies offer million of markets, and because they are humans like us, they dont always get the probs correctly. What you need is to be slightly better in your market of choice to start making money. Its is not about winning all your games, it is about playing games that you have an edge on, consistently, 30% win rate can be very profitable sef.

I am not all that passionate about football, but people around me have drawn my interest in it. My passion is in the modeling aspect, acquiring insights from past data, though I am still learning programming, excel VBA, R, data base, scrapping, big data.

I use forebet for my stats, but not in the same way most people do, I have a couple of leagues i follow, and i don't search for winners rather i look for value, where there probs are better than what offered on bet9ja.

I dont give a rat shi.t if a team is a favorite or underdog as long as the probs are better than the implied probs offered by bet9ja. If their is value, I play, if not, I dont.

Attached bellow(.png as well as excel) is one of my models. As I am still testing I used a unit flat staking plan, out of 62 games selected i have made a return of 41.7 units, that is 67% yield.

You can see that it is paying off as crazy as it might sound, each day turned out profits, except one. Red barchart for number of games selected on the day while blue shows profits or losses made.

46 years old pastor stealing 1.2 million car. Check out the risk vs reward nah, SMH, they say a fool at 40 is a fool for ever.

ositadima1:
In the book their are other concepts, money management, variance etc. If you have issues studying you can quote me with ur question.

Mind you, you have to have above average IQ to understand it, lol.

https:// drive. google. com/file/d/1-BWKWA_DYgKlhkF7ADVWS0WLEk4m3L0F/view?usp=drivesdk

I deliberately placed 3 gaps in d link so I don't get flagged by nairaland bot.

Note: I am not advertising the authors system, this is purely for education.

I hope you found the book interesting.

Back on the matter, acca or accumulator bets are not the best for a long term bettor who is in it to reap consistent profits. Don't get me wrong, they make a huge return when successful, but hitting 1 in 5000 odds acca is very rare, it is on same level with lotto or other forms of lottery.

When you play acca, you do two things;

1. You are compounding the bookies margin or commission.

2. You are reducing your probability of success. Actually, the larger your acca the smaller are your chances.

Let's take for example. You play 5 legged acca with odds; 2.3, 1.5, 3, 1.8 and 1.3 with probabilities 43.5%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 55.6% and 76.9% respectively.

Assuming these probs are accurately calculated by the bookies, your overall prob of success is 4.13% (product of the 5 probs above). That is 1 in 25 odds of winning.

As you can see, the combined prob, 4.13%, is far less than the individual probs.

That is why bookies love those long accas, it keeps them in business.

More likes and I keep going...

ositadima1:
Now, the fun part, if you can estimate probabilities better than the bookies you have an edge. Bookies are not always correct in there estimation, and if you can analyse certain markets better than them you will make profits long term as long as you have a neat staking plan.

You see, winning long term lies not in picking and backing winners but in playing value bets consistently.

But what is a value bet? For example let's assume the bookies offer you 2.22 odds for heads on a coin flip, if you are sharp you would see that this bet is overpriced and therefore it is a value bet, why?

2.22 odds translates to 45% but actually head turn up about 50% of the time, 5% more than estimated by bookie. That is, if you play the game 10 times you win 5 (heads) and loose 5 (tails).

Let's do the calculation:

5 win = #1 x 5 x 2.22 =#11.1
profit =#11.1-#5 (initial investment)
=#5.1
5 Losses =#1 x 5 x -1 =- #5

Sum = #5.1 - #5 = #0.1

Overall profit #0.1

If you can estimate better than the bookies you will make money long term.

There is a standard formula to calculate EV, Expected Value;

Odds x your Prob - 1

In the example above

(2.22 x 0.5) - 1 = 0.1

more likes and I will post a link to a book that explains this concept in more detail.

In the book their are other concepts, money management, variance etc. If you have issues studying you can quote me with ur question.

Mind you, you have to have above average IQ to understand it, lol.

https:// drive. google. com/file/d/1-BWKWA_DYgKlhkF7ADVWS0WLEk4m3L0F/view?usp=drivesdk

I deliberately placed 3 gaps in d link so I don't get flagged by nairaland bot.

Note: I am not advertising the authors system, this is purely for education.

ositadima1:
ok,

Let's understand what this probs really mean;

Tokyo vs
Blaublitz Akita

1: 34.7%
X: 32.26%
2: 45.05%

As per bookies, 45% of d time Blaublitz Akita will win, note that in tomorrows game they may loose or draw. If the bookies are correct, then a similar game repeated 100 times, away would win about 45 of them and loose or draw in the remaining 55 or so.

You have to bear this in mind when ever you see these percentages, 80% only means that an event is more likely to happen​ in the long run.

more likes and I go on

Now, the fun part, if you can estimate probabilities better than the bookies you have an edge. Bookies are not always correct in there estimation, and if you can analyse certain markets better than them you will make profits long term as long as you have a neat staking plan.

You see, winning long term lies not in picking and backing winners but in playing value bets consistently.

But what is a value bet? For example let's assume the bookies offer you 2.22 odds for heads on a coin flip, if you are sharp you would see that this bet is overpriced and therefore it is a value bet, why?

2.22 odds translates to 45% but actually head turn up about 50% of the time, 5% more than estimated by bookie. That is, if you play the game 10 times you win 5 (heads) and loose 5 (tails).

Let's do the calculation:

5 win = #1 x 5 x 2.22 =#11.1
profit =#11.1-#5 (initial investment)
=#5.1
5 Losses =#1 x 5 x -1 =- #5

Sum = #5.1 - #5 = #0.1

Overall profit #0.1

If you can estimate better than the bookies you will make money long term.

There is a standard formula to calculate EV, Expected Value;

Odds x your Prob - 1

In the example above

(2.22 x 0.5) - 1 = 0.1

more likes and I will post a link to a book that explains this concept in more detail.

ositadima1:
one more like... lol

You may ask how my ramblings about probability relate to punting, my answer would be a lot. The odds you select in all those markets are nothing but probabilities as estimated by the bookies plus margin, yes they add commission on top self.

Take for example, FC Tokyo vs
Blaublitz Akita

1: 2.88 = 1/2.88 = 34.7%
X: 3.10 = 1/3.10 = 32.26%
2: 2.22 = 1/2.22 = 45.05%

Total percentage = 112%

1st you can see that each odds for home, draw and away represent probability of success as calculated by the bookies.

Secondly, I mentioned earlier probabilities lie between 0 and 1 or in percentages between 0 and 100%. But you can see from above that the sum is 112%, the extra 12% is the bookies commission, some call it juice, vig, over round.

More likes and I continue.

ok,

Let's understand what this probs really mean;

Tokyo vs
Blaublitz Akita

1: 34.7%
X: 32.26%
2: 45.05%

As per bookies, 45% of d time Blaublitz Akita will win, note that in tomorrows game they may loose or draw. If the bookies are correct, then a similar game repeated 100 times, away would win about 45 of them and loose or draw in the remaining 55 or so.

You have to bear this in mind when ever you see these percentages, 80% only means that an event is more likely to happen​ in the long run.

more likes and I go on

hardeycute:
Alabi looking at you right now with your analysis when at the end he still WINS

If you go d +EV route, you go win tire.

ositadima1:
lol, one like...

Back on probabilities, probability means number of desired outcomes divided by all possible outcomes. For example, a coin has 2 possible outcomes, head or tail. To determine the probability of landing head would be; 1 / 2 = 0.5.

Probability is a way to quantify uncertainty, always between 0 and 1, where 0 is "it can't happen" and 1 being "it must happen". Most time probabilities are expressed in percentages like in d coin case 0.5 equates to 50% .

Ok, more likes, and I keep going.

one more like... lol

You may ask how my ramblings about probability relate to punting, my answer would be a lot. The odds you select in all those markets are nothing but probabilities as estimated by the bookies plus margin, yes they add commission on top self.

Take for example, FC Tokyo vs
Blaublitz Akita

1: 2.88 = 1/2.88 = 34.7%
X: 3.10 = 1/3.10 = 32.26%
2: 2.22 = 1/2.22 = 45.05%

Total percentage = 112%

1st you can see that each odds for home, draw and away represent probability of success as calculated by the bookies.

Secondly, I mentioned earlier probabilities lie between 0 and 1 or in percentages between 0 and 100%. But you can see from above that the sum is 112%, the extra 12% is the bookies commission, some call it juice, vig, over round.

More likes and I continue.

ositadima1:
My fellow lottery players, how far? When ever you stake #100 to return millions, you know you are doing try your luck.

Odds are just inverted probabilities, 2 odds is another way of saying a 50% chance.Similarly, if you through a coin, the chances of landing head is 50%, it means if I through a coin 100 times I will land heads about 50 times, but one through can go either way.

If you want to know more about +EV betting like my post.

lol, one like...

Back on probabilities, probability means number of desired outcomes divided by all possible outcomes. For example, a coin has 2 possible outcomes, head or tail. To determine the probability of landing head would be; 1 / 2 = 0.5.

Probability is a way to quantify uncertainty, always between 0 and 1, where 0 is "it can't happen" and 1 being "it must happen". Most time probabilities are expressed in percentages like in d coin case 0.5 equates to 50% .

Ok, more likes, and I keep going.

My fellow lottery players, how far? When ever you stake #100 to return millions, you know you are doing try your luck.

Odds are just inverted probabilities, 2 odds is another way of saying a 50% chance.Similarly, if you through a coin, the chances of landing head is 50%, it means if I through a coin 100 times I will land heads about 50 times, but one through can go either way.

If you want to know more about +EV betting like my post.

You will know you have met the devil when you see him. Charming, with a heart-filled, flashy smile. Dark eyes, dark locks, perfect teeth. At first he will be what you always wanted: charming, nice, sweet, handsome, strong. And more. So much more, because he is different for everyone. And then he changes, once he has you. He becomes… malicious, slithery, sharp, and he scams and cons his way through life. But he never raises a hand against you--or maybe he does. And when you try to run, to leave, you can't escape. You can't escape, because the more you think about him, you realize…

He's you. He's been you all along. This whole time, you had yourself painted as a victim, when you should have painted yourself as human. A mix between light and dark, heaven and hell. Evil… and good.

We, as humans, as individuals, are our own worst enemy, our own hardest competitor. We have anxieties and emotions and wants and needs that, like the devil, try to seduce us and lead us away from our goal. Some people fall victim to their devils. Some people have more of him in them than others. But we all have him.

Esther Holton

Op what is your own now? It's only a dream, a process your body goes through to reassess your days experiences while you sleep. Every one dreams, yours is no exception.

While considering the gains you also need to consider running costs; car maintenance, fuel, Union money, government monies, agbero money and emergencies.

As for bad drivers one good thing about them is they are not innovative, most of their mischief is a closed set, know them all and have counter moves set up.

TissuePaper:
you are looking for an excuse not to go to church abi

lol

I figured from this post that religion doesn't matter much, people who can study nature and apply it's laws to solve problems, that is what technology is all about, will always be ahead every single time.

A friend sent me this on WhatsApp​ and I felt like sharing.

The brutal words of Richard Smith, famous British guitarist, during an interview ...
������
°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
I have been asked many times what I think of Africans, here is what I think of Africans, without language and without taboos.

*They sell everything to the highest bidder, even the land. Then they poison themselves with everything that is edible.*

*I am not racist because I do not believe for a single second that I am superior to a black man. The difference with them is that we think of our descendants, we are calculators, we protect our interests and we'll kill for that if need be*.

*We are not emotional, we have passed this stage. If the lion has pity on the gazelle, it is he who will die of hunger. They have lions at home, but they do not understand the laws of nature.*

*For everything, they confide in superstition and religion. The difference between the others and blacks is, while others reflect, blacks do not think, they do not use their intellectual capacity and very few blacks are analytical.*

*And when a few black people pierce through, we admit them to our side or eliminate them in one way or another, most often, with the hand of other blacks.*

*We brought them our god and continuously invent fuzzy concepts to confuse them more.*

*In a hundred years, their descendants will be more slaves than they are now. They are already more unhappy than the generation of their parents, and they naively believe that numbers will be their strength.*

*Just watch how they drown at sea to come here. We conquered them with a few tens of ours and the active help of theirs.*

*We forced them to speak and write in our languages. We will control their descendants more than we control them right now.*

*Other people understood our game, they started to use the same technical knowledge as us to protect and dissuade, but the blacks did not understand anything.*

*I'm sorry to be so brutal in my franchise. Nothing personal, I'm just plain."*

(Richard Smith)

folake4u:
Pls how much do you think a fountain pen will cost.

I have artistic skills in writing too.

I love calligraphy die!

I found a couple on jumia but they are mostly low end, between 1 to 3k. You also need ink. If you have the means to get it to Nigeria, Amazon and eBay is where to look. (assuming you live here, by the way the background in your pix is beautiful, clean and full of green, the kind of place I would love to live in)

These fountain pens come in veritie like stroke thickness, ink type etc. If calligraphy is your thing their are good books on the topic with lots of illustrations, you can download from torrent sites like thepiratebay.

Freiden:
I have a very beautiful handwriting, but I really wanna know how to write like this. Any idea how I can learn to write like this ??

Yeah, some ideas, you need a special kind of pen called fountain pen, makes your strokes sharper.

Then you can search for cursive workbooks in PDF format, download and print. Next, practice practice practice until your hands fall off.

This hobby has a name, calligraphy.

Good but cursive is finer.

BlackJo:
Not entirely true,
Yes the price difference which I can say is the main reason why you might want to go for a console if you're on a budget.
I use an msi which cost me about $1600 but trust me when I say that the frame rates at which I play and the kind of games I play are crazy.
I must not even be plugged in to play at ultra settings.
And the best part...... It's a computer!.... Can be used for every and anything, unlike the console.... Just gaming... Maybe movies or surf the web.
It's just a matter of choice and priority.

I would like to know how long you play unplugged, 30 min max? I talk from experience too, if you play demanding games your battery is not going to last on a charge, fact! Even for desktop PCs if you play graphics intensive games you need bigger power pack, cooling system etc.

TissuePaper:
bro..you have obviously not been keeping up with the thread, alabi defeated me... So I'm just trying to recuperate... Trying to gather whatever spoils I can and move on to another phase of life

How is your model going, heard you have a 70% win rate and you're scared of the bookmakers limiting your account...lol

lol, after a month plus you are telling me this. I knew your proposed game(gold mine) was weak and that was why I didn't tail you any further.

As per d model I have designed a means to scale down my picks to not more than five game daily with Kelly criterion as my money management, I have almost doubled my bank roll by half.

TissuePaper:
get off my dìck bro...focus on your path in life.. Is it so hard not to receive mentions from this thread every day

Guy, I have been watching you, to see whether you would do the right thing by your self like a gentleman would. Integrity is a virtue my guy, I asked you several times if it was blown and you keep saying no, what is holding you then? If you lost it say it here so we can move on.

Prove that you have some honour in you and that you are not some cheap crook.

Calling ur self a pro, yet you dey Bleep up on top of chicken change.

I like shows but they can easily fill up your storage. You guys, expecially the one above, how do you deal with space, downloading them is one thing and storing them is another, expecially those fatties with 300 mb per episode.

I like collecting shows, if you see the way I neatly line them up in folders, season by season eh, my pun now is my storage overload and the fear of a crash .