₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
If you can make it simple and still be making good money is what is important. My street application has given me more money in the business. I check FA in some stocks to relax my mind.I did not check FA in oando and ucap which has returned more appreciation in my portfolio. I wish I had bought more at 90kobo ucap and less than #10 for oando.I bought okumu at #50 without FA because I saw what palm oil was doing on the street. Thr are sectors in nigeria presently you don't really need too much FA or TA to be involved if you have 5yrs and above in mind. Power,IT and practical agriculture not digital ones.
This is my opinion and I have target of just 5 more yrs to retire from active income.

Ok, I’ve known your style for some time. Some people call it social arbitrage—you observe trends at the micro level and position yourself even before they start reflecting in a company’s revenue. The guys on Dumb Money podcast made millions from this strategy in the early 2000s.

Can you imagine? They even profited from disasters like tornadoes by identifying the companies most likely to benefit.

One issue with Nigeria is that our NGX isn’t as mature. In the U.S., almost every event or commodity has at least two or three stocks tied to it—but that’s not the case here. Still, it’s a solid strategy. Loco also applies it well when he’s not busy monkey hunting. I remember his Learn Africa (and that other printing stock) trade before the election campaign.

BullBearMkt:
@PuristForest, I may not share the same sentiment about the market being red in 2025 as you mentioned in one of your posts. However, I must commend you on your excellent TA analysis using Elliott waves to interpret NGX stocks. You are doing a wonderful job, and only those knowledgeable about TA will appreciate your work. Kudos!

LOL, anyone can become knowledgeable about TA and FA with just a few hours of intense reading. You all should stop talking about these things as if they’re rocket science—there are infinite resources out there.

I repeat, anyone with average aptitude and interest can learn it for free. But knowing this stuff is one thing; making money from it is another. Traditional TA and FA have even been outpaced by self-learning algorithms.

Are you making money, that is the real question, no be all this elitist feelings my Oga.

emmaodet:
Which AI are you using to analyze these financial reports bro? Claudia or Deepseek?

Streetinvestor2:
My guy.i have seen it oh.
You should call the attention of that ,devil in me guy.This is how he has been saying rubbish about banks.what they will be doing new to earn more revenue. Na there I give up on him.You are asking the captain of this companies what they will be doing with new fund forgeting that they are now holdco which can invest in other sectors mostly power sector at this time and other infrastructure.
I have downloaded and just looked at page 2 and what I saw sweet my stomach. Will spend more time on it over wkned. Look at profit after tax and revenue line.He only comes to speak English and market rubbish Mtn that can hardly go above #280/300 even with 50% tariff increase. Which labour union still dey make noise about.
All I remember telling him is charms will definitely do 100% this yr minimum

Financial Analysis of Chams Holding Company Plc for FY 2024

1. Profitability
- Revenue Growth: Revenue surged by 53% (from ₦9.47B to ₦14.51B), driven by core segments like Printer Solutions (₦7.31B) and Card Personalization (₦6.48B).
- Gross Profit Margin: Improved from 22.5% (2023) to 30.1% (2024), indicating better cost control or pricing power.
- Operating Profit: Jumped 137% to ₦1.89B, reflecting operational efficiency despite rising administrative and staff costs.
- Net Profit: Increased 218% to ₦1.30B, with basic EPS rising from 4.53 kobo to 23.07 kobo.

2. Liquidity & Cash Flow
- Cash Position: Cash reserves grew by 26% (₦1.88B to ₦2.37B), though operating cash flow declined to ₦387.5M (from ₦533.9M in 2023).
- Working Capital: Receivables increased sharply (₦3.93B to ₦6.77B), raising concerns about collection efficiency. Inventory decreased by 62%, suggesting better inventory management.

3. Balance Sheet Strength
- Total Assets: Increased by 12% (₦18.91B to ₦21.08B), driven by investments in PPE (₦7.39B) and intangible assets.
- Debt Levels: Long-term loans nearly tripled (₦783M to ₦1.99B), pushing total liabilities to ₦10.12B. Leverage ratio (Debt/Equity) rose, indicating higher financial risk.
- Equity: Total equity grew to ₦10.96B, but retained earnings remain negative (₦1.11B deficit), though improving from 2023 (₦2.16B deficit).

4. Segment Performance
- Printer Solutions & Card Personalization: Contributed 94% of revenue (₦13.8B combined).
- Payment Systems & Agency Banking: Smaller segments (₦239.7M and ₦475.2M) but potential growth areas.

5. Risks & Concerns
- High Receivables: Trade receivables rose 73% (₦3.93B to ₦6.77B), risking liquidity strain if uncollected.
- Debt Dependency: Reliance on borrowing (₦2.31B new loans) for expansion could pressure future cash flows.
- Negative Retained Earnings: Despite profits, accumulated losses persist, limiting dividend capacity.

6. Audit & Governance
- Unaudited Statements: Results are provisional and subject to adjustments.
- Non-Controlling Interest (NCI): Increased to ₦4.80B, reflecting subsidiary performance.

Conclusion
Chams Holding demonstrated strong growth in revenue and profitability, backed by operational efficiency and segmental strength. But, rising debt, receivables, and persistent retained earnings deficits warrant caution.

Locotrader:
The market will be stagnant after Q1 2025.
Bull continuity will be selective.

Bros check that chams result.Its out finally.
Let's digest it

If chams no do full bid tomorrow make I know watin cause am.

ojeysky:
And you've not sold since then? I envy you o

I wanted to sell last year or the year before. In one of my posts just before the split, I asked whether I should sell and invest in Sukuk or hold, considering the stock was paying me about half of my initial investment in dividends at the time. Some suggested I should sell, as the stock would likely dilute post-split.

Anyway, I finally decided to hold. I wish I had bought more in 2020—that would have been a jackpot for me. I shouldn’t have gone for the 2027 Sukuk that pays 11.6%.

emmanuelewumi:
Unfortunately the executive directors of Nahco don't have the company's.

N10 million invested in their company's shares in 2020 will now have a market value of over N250 million. With a high probability of earning dividends of over N20 million in the next 4 months

Only? That means UCAP performed even better. A ₦10 million investment in UCAP in 2020 should be worth over ₦400 million today.

The tachere I bought at 2.6 in 2020—I know how much it's worth today.

Financial Analysis of Oando PLC for the Year Ended 31 December 2024


1. Profitability
Revenue & Profitability:

The Group reported a profit of N65.5 billion for the 12 months ended December 2024, driven by the Exploration & Production (E&P) segment (N141.9 billion profit).

However, Q3 2024 saw a loss of N10.8 billion, primarily due to high administrative expenses (N402.7 billion annually) and finance costs (N232.1 billion).

The Supply & Trading segment improved significantly, turning a profit of N61.1 billion in 2024 compared to a loss in 2023.

2. Financial Position
Assets:

Total assets grew by 109% (N3.9 trillion in 2024 vs. N1.9 trillion in 2023), driven by acquisitions (e.g., NAOC) and revaluation of property, plant, and equipment (N2.04 trillion).

Intangible assets (e.g., goodwill, exploration assets) surged to N1.27 trillion, reflecting acquisitions and ongoing upstream investments.

Liabilities:

Total borrowings increased to N2.76 trillion (2024), with significant short-term debt (N1.05 trillion).

Lease liabilities (N8.99 billion) and decommissioning provisions (N93.7 billion) add to long-term obligations.

3. Cash Flow
Operating Activities: Net cash used in operations was N545.5 billion (2024), compared to positive cash flow in 2023, driven by working capital changes (e.g., receivables).

Investing Activities: Cash outflow of N686.2 billion due to acquisitions (e.g., NAOC) and capital expenditures.

Financing Activities: Reliance on debt (N2.27 trillion proceeds) to fund expansion, leading to a net cash inflow of N1.46 trillion.

4. Key Risks
High Leverage: Debt-to-equity ratio deteriorated, with total liabilities exceeding equity (N2.76 trillion vs. N273 billion equity). Interest expenses (N232.1 billion) strain profitability.

Legal & Contingent Liabilities:

Pending litigation (e.g., minority shareholder disputes, arbitration settlements).

Contingent liabilities from guarantees and unresolved tax claims.

Foreign Exchange Volatility: N155.9 billion foreign exchange loss in 2024 highlights exposure to currency fluctuations.

5. Strategic Moves
Acquisitions:

Completed the NAOC acquisition (OMLs 60–63) for N458.2 billion, boosting upstream assets.

Expansion into Angola’s Block KON 13 signals growth in exploration but adds execution risk.

Go-Private Initiative: Ongoing court battles with minority shareholders over the N7.71/share buyback scheme could delay restructuring.

6. Segment Performance
Exploration & Production (E&P):

Revenue: N416.9 billion (2024), up 229% YoY.

Operating profit: N218.9 billion (98% of Group total).

Supply & Trading:

Revenue: N3.7 trillion (2024), with a turnaround to N70.8 billion operating profit.

Corporate & Others: Drag on profits (N135.4 billion loss), likely due to consolidation adjustments and restructuring costs.

7. Outlook
Upside: Upstream growth (NAOC integration, Angola block) could boost reserves and production.

Downside: Debt servicing, legal disputes, and volatile oil prices threaten liquidity.

Streetinvestor2:
I know some people are in this market for get rich quick and oando now is the target. They are not happy with oando results because they wanted the extraordinary so that the price could fly to thr target...lol

The q4 and FY are good improvement as oando is not digging into the hole rather crawling out of the hole.If you are not ok with it.Just sell and have peace of mind like I have done with some stocks I don't like thr present results. I have equally move the cash to the ones I like thr results with possible sustainability in the results going forward.
Again oando did well in Q4 results. If they continue the quarterly results of 2025 this way then it will be too good .
Like I said oando is no longer a bet for me and don't owe you explanation. The 2024 results mostly q4 results beside banks have not been too fantastic as expected because of naija economic wahala. I expect better results this 2025.Your money what you do with it...na your business

Key Risks Justifying a "Sell" or "Avoid"
Debt Burden:

1. Total borrowings (₦2.76 trillion) dwarf equity (₦273 billion).

2. Interest costs (₦232.1B) consume 4.2% of revenue, leaving minimal room for error.

Negative Operating Cash Flow:

1. ₦545.5B net cash used in operations signals liquidity strain.

Thin Margins:

1. Net profit margin of 1.6% is unsustainable for long-term growth.



Opportunities Justifying a "Hold" or Speculative "Buy"
Upstream Growth:

1. Acquisitions (NAOC, Angola Block KON 13) could boost reserves and production.

E&P Segment Strength:

1. 98% of operating profit comes from Exploration & Production (high-margin oil/gas).

GeeKudi:
Can people look at this 65bn very well. Looks like there is an error in the computation. Income tax expences (17bn) was erroneously added to profit before income tax (47bn) to arrive at the 65bn. I think the correct figure should have been 31bn if you deduct income tax from pbt.
Or, maybe I didn't check very well?

chimex38:
Good Observation..
But on further checks according to the line item, it's more likely a tax-credit rather than a tax-expense, hence not bracketed and rightly added.

In the same line item, they got a tax credit from their exploration activity of ₦27.99bn and it was added. That's the source of the observation you rightly highlighted.

I could also be wrong.
Cc: Youngzedd

Why Did Oando Report a Tax Credit?
Upstream Tax Incentives:

1. Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) grants tax holidays, investment allowances, and deductions for oil exploration and production (E&P) activities.

2. Oando’s E&P segment likely triggered tax credits due to capital allowances or reinvestment in upstream assets (e.g., NAOC acquisition).

Deferred Tax Assets (DTAs):

1. Past losses or temporary differences (e.g., impairments, depreciation) can create DTAs, which offset taxable income.

2. If Oando utilized DTAs from prior years, it would reduce current tax liability.


Is the Tax Credit Sustainable?
Yes, if:

1. Oando continues qualifying for upstream tax breaks (e.g., PIA incentives for new exploration).

2. It maintains deferred tax assets (e.g., through ongoing capital expenditures or losses).

No, if:

1. Tax authorities revise policies or restrict incentives.

2. DTAs are exhausted, or profitability improves significantly (increasing taxable income).

Ginalex:
you really want to believe I sold at 37 naira so bad . I'm a midget no worry ... Anything other thing? Oya go and find how you'll recoup the 800k you lost on Dangsugar and stop crying you hear??

You know you're my favorite sister here. I used to have a crush on you back in our secondary school days. I even attended your wedding, but I won’t tell you my name.

Presco has already recovered my losses and put me in profit.

BizErikah:
Ahh
Nascon is my first nig stock buy..
I felt it was at a discount, n I bought at 37.5 about 10 days ago..

Hoping to get at least 15% profit when it rises

Lol, some people do JIJO, while others do OJIJ—it's a free world.

Ginalex:
May your continue being restless over my matter. Amen😬😬. By the way I sold for 42.30. Kindly correct that in your record. I'd come and update you when I buy at my target price so that you go rvn mad finish

Lol, one day it's 37, another day it's 42. By the way, I never mentioned you—I thought you said I should never mention you in my life again? Anyway, they say short women get angry easily.

ololufemi:
Loco did good recommending Neimeth PLC at around NGN2 per share or slightlylower. People should find out what price the share has been trading at before seeking to throw jabs at him.

For a stock recommended at about NGN2.00 and currently at about NGN3.00, there is not much to say.

Let's not discourage more people from making contributions on our beloved platform. 😎

What about the lady who started the OJIJ movement? She sold Nascon at 37, expecting to buy back at 32, even though she was in a losing position and Nascon was predicted to rise. She also insulted other members in the process.

emmaodet:
From the table, we can see COS is too high and NP is too low.
Checking the sector, i noticed it is a general problem - Eterna, Cap Oil, Mrs, Conoil

I don't think it's a problem on its own—this is their business model. It relies on high revenue volume to offset very low profit margins, with costs exceeding 94% of revenue. They also operate with heavy leverage, as liabilities are six times equity.

The interest margin appears low due to the high turnover, but as you mentioned, drop in revenue could create serious issues. Their strategy is high risk, high reward, and based on your observations, this seems to be a common approach with similar businesses.

emmaodet:
Can you explain the picture better for me? I didn't get it bro

Lol, sorry bro, my bad. The data covers total financials from 2019 to 2024. I couldn't fit everything, so I summarized the key points. The metrics under 2024 are specific to that year, while the other columns provide a summary of the entire period.

For example, the 52% represents the compounded annual growth of EPS from 2019 to 2024. The MEAN is the average over this time frame, calculated similarly to summing all gross profit margins from 2019–2024 and dividing by total revenue over the same period. Max and Min represent the highest and lowest values within the six years. For instance, in 2024, 88.9% of revenue was spent on the cost of goods and services—the highest percentage in the period—so it appears under Max.

All the droop values for 2024 add up to 100% because they represent the portion of revenue allocated to each business level according to the income statement. I explained this before—I thought you had read my earlier post a few days ago. Thanks.

emmaodet:
Total inventory rose to 152b from 74b, that is a 100% and which is 5X of net profit of 27.8b. That is worrisome.
Q4/24 eps shrink to 117k from 616k despite a 16% increase in revenue of 248b from 213.4b.
A meagre net profit of 416m from 248bb revenue - a 0.2% margin compared to 950m from 213b revenue prior year.

Culprits - Inflation

- finance cost of 9.96b from 4.57b prior year
- Admin cost of 19.2b from 15.2b prior year
- Cost of sales rose to 226b to generate 248b compares to 188b to generate 213b revenue prior year.

A 0.2% net margin is not encouraging and means the company may fall into negative any moment. It has no room to absorb shocks or unforeseen circumstances.

My take.

unite4real:
At least he will be getting inside information which is very helpful to grow his capital or know when to exit

Na true sha.

chimex38:
In addition,
Some employees have no idea how strong the company is and those meeting sessions with strong/worried facial expressions from management are just to keep them on their toes to avoid laxity and almost always focus on companies weak areas which may constitute a total liability of less than 5% of equity.
But the employee perceives it as what can bring the company down and that the company is struggling or fragile.
Even when some read the financial statements, they believe it doesn't reflect the true reality on ground. That it's just packaging

So why will he invest in a company that can cut his salary or allowances the next month if he doesn't step up?

Another thing is diversification, Investing heavily in the same company that pays your salary is some how ooo, if the company chocke na village straight ooo.

toyeoye:
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I hope you will compensate the many contributors who provide valuable criticism that you are incorporating into your website when you go commercial, lol. You're doing a great job.

Could you also consider allowing data downloads in the future? Specifically, I mean daily trade-by-trade data. Maybe not now, but when you go commercial, it would be very useful for those of us who enjoy analyzing such details.

In this life, the greatest asset someone can have is an open mind. Never criticize anything without first diving deep into it and mastering it academically. Do not rely solely on individual cases (something to do with taking one sample of a population) , as they might be misleading or misapplications. This is my gift to you.

emmanuelewumi:
Really, when they bought tools from a guru and have direct access to the buy and sell signals from him.

The guru a trained Statisticians went as far as South Africa and US to improve on his technical analysis skills and tools. Not now when you can learn on YouTube

But that is not trading; that is an example of a fool and his money soon parting. In TA books, money management is a serious topic. The good ones emphasize that trading is a probability game (that requires you to have a statistical edge). It’s not guaranteed, but with high-probability moves, you limit your downside by using stop losses. All real technical analysis discussions cover stop losses and position sizing—there are entire books dedicated to these topics. I’ve read a couple by Van K. Tharp, who often talks about R multiples. He suggests setting your R (maximum risk) before entering any trade (not after).

The people you mention give TA a bad name (exhuding illusion of knowledge). They continue to misinform the public even today. They go on the radio to talk about forex, claiming it’s profitable and pushing their systems, but I haven’t heard any of them discuss the downsides.

Just as you use a margin of safety in FA, TA relies on money management and position sizing. All TA is probabilistic, and to some extent, FA is too. Even a "wonderful business" can be affected overnight by government policies, natural disasters, disruptive innovations, and more.

This is a side-by-side comparison of Presco and DangCem. I aimed to use the moving data points to gain insights quickly and efficiently in terms of time and effort. Presco has outperformed DangCem, with nearly three times the compounded growth in earnings per share. Unsurprisingly, Presco also performed better across all margins.

In the "droop section," I analyzed the actual portion of revenue allocated to different levels of the business, which collectively add up to 100% of revenue. Presco allocated a slightly higher portion of its revenue to interest and taxes. Could this indicate that DangCem is more effective at managing its tax obligations?

At one point, Presco almost doubled its revenue—can you believe that? I think I missed the CAGR for equity growth line, which could be a useful metric to include here.

Note that "droop" is just a term I borrowed because it sounds so good. It’s originally related to running generators in parallel and having them share the load based on each generator's capacity.

nosa2:
There is no way banks will raise more capital and not deploy it. Return on equity just shows the efficiency of the company in milking out profit from the capital they have.

Please don't forget that as rates fall bond prices go up. So bonds being bought today will be more valuable as rates come down in the future

Also, remember that the ones they purchased at low rates have lost value—those bought at yields between 8% to 15% or even lower. It’s a continuous game of rebalancing.

nosa2:
There is no way banks will raise more capital and not deploy it. Return on equity just shows the efficiency of the company in milking out profit from the capital they have.

Please don't forget that as rates fall bond prices go up. So bonds being bought today will be more valuable as rates come down in the future

The capital Nigerian banks are raising is primarily intended to meet the CBN's revised minimum capital requirements and serve as a "buffer" to enhance their financial stability. This capital is regulatory in nature, and investing or taking risks with it would defeat its purpose. Unless the banks raise funds in excess of the required amount, this equity will not generate returns—at least not the typical returns expected from investments. Very simple...

HesInMe:
I didn't think it was a controversial position. Nearly all new equity issues are dilutive in the short term: You're expanding the number of shares chasing a given amount of profit. Except you think the profit will grow at a faster pace than the share count.

So the real question here is: How will the banks grow their earnings from here on? We all just assume the music will go on and on and on. No one is seriously tackling this question. Keep in mind that we're supposedly at peak interest rates, so their net interest margin (the difference between loan and deposit rates) should fall going forward. And the formal sector is nearly fully banked, so opening another branch in Opebi will not help much.

Access is the only bank that seems to appreciate this challenge, but they're currently on an acquisition binge.

There seems to be a misunderstanding between you and Nosa. Both of you are raising questionable points, so let me start with yours. Why should banks experience a fall in interest margins? That gap is set by the CBN (I’m about 85% sure) and is independent of interest rates. If such a fall should happen, it would likely be due to high-interest rates reducing the demand for loans.

I don’t think there is a ceiling to banks' earnings; as long as the economy is growing, banks will grow along with it. A growing economy needs financing, which banks provide.

Now, to address Nosa’s point: the equity being raised through new shares is not likely to be used for generating returns. I believe it will be kept as reserves to absorb shocks. So, the argument about returns on equity may not hold in this case.

The dilution caused by the additional shares will likely be balanced by growth, some of which will come from their substantial dollar gains.

Disclaimer: As always, I’m no expert on the matter. This is based on bits and pieces of information and some imagination.

GeeKudi:
With your level of understanding, I expected you to know that my admonition was not specifically directed at you alone but a general one at everyone.
You alluded to NL being a faceless public forum where, practically, nothing matters and I added that in spite of this, as people who would not come off as social misfits, we should understand the importance of decorum in our social engagements even on such a platform as this.

Now you’re stretching my post beyond its intended meaning. I never said that "nothing should matter", implying that you could come here and market drugs or traffic children?

It would have made more sense if you had added to the post instead of twisting its meaning. If you’re going to come at me, provide evidence—otherwise...

zendi:
Yes, but which stock is your prick?
In which sector, and when was it's last Result?
What is it's latest EPS?

Lol, you know this wasn’t directed at anyone—it was just me musing. I haven’t insulted anyone here, and I’m not the first person to use that word. If it’s considered derogatory, I can take it down.

GeeKudi:
….but we can all be civil here and accord each other mutual respect. Don’t come at people for their opinion. Learn to disagree graciously. Stop using derogatory words on people and avoid mockery.

This shouldn’t be difficult for anyone with minimal home training to do!

Show me where I’ve ever used derogatory words—I can’t even remember the last time I used a negative word. If you misconstrue my words, that’s a different matter. Perhaps you don’t like being challenged, but how is that my fault? Maybe you’re just used to being surrounded by “yes sir” people outside.