₦airaland Forum

Here your billi no matter o, if u like be Elon Musk MD, you talk me go still talk, if you talk any how I go shun you join.

KarlTom:
We can all find a place to hide under the faceless blanket of NL.
However, everyone knows where they truly stand.

Personally, I am beginning to see like the elders.

To all 'newbies', be very careful. Not all that glitters is gold...

Every mallam to his kettle

The funny thing is that Nairaland is a faceless forum. Your billions, whether real or imaginary, don’t define you here. Unless Nairaland starts offering merchandise you can buy to showcase your social status outside the forum, we are all the same here. In fact, your value is measured solely by the quality of your contributions. Even if you own the entirety of Lekki Phase 1 and 2, it’s irrelevant here. Know this, and find peace.

mikeapollo:
Thanks, and God bless.
Oando will vomit the billions to you too, for you to enjoy. Just remember to invite me when you ''open'' your mansion for Lekki, Abuja, PH, Anambra, Enugu etc.
Peace

Lol, I don’t want a mansion for obvious reasons—I just want peace of mind. Thanks all the same!

mikeapollo:
I would agree with you a 1,000,000% percent on the content, context and tone of this your post.
If the earlier post was like this, I would NEVER have said ANYTHING in response.

Let us grant each other full respect and the benefit of the doubts that we are all reasonable and know what we are doing.

I will now apologize to you (unapologetically) if you feel my response was below the belt. I never intended to do that. So, I am sorry if you feel somehow! Ain't no proud to apologize or even beg!

But why would you say my ''several million units'' was affecting my judgement? It is not nice to say so. Abeg.
Why would you say I might constitute hazard to other people if I drive or do a sensitive job? It is not nice to say so. Abeg.

Once again, I withdraw any word that I might have used that sounded offensive and below the belt.

Let us encourage ourselves. I did not lose my mind or judgement in 2008-2010 when all my investments evaporated into thin air. It is not now that I can afford to tie wrapper for waist on top of balcony early in the morning, put chewing stick in my mouth and spit out like Yoruba village landlord that I would now lose my judgement on top of Oando that I bought for peanuts and is not doing badly!

Peace unto you and everyone!

Okay, I’m glad Oando worked out well for you. I was just concerned about the way you posted about it. Sorry to hear about your losses in 2008–2010—unfortunately, things like that happen. I have nothing against you or anyone on this thread. After all, we’re just a bunch of good chaps, aren’t we?

I’m invested in Oando too, and I hope it continues to rise as it’s meant to. God bless this forum, and God bless Nigeria!

KarlTom:
Or how short...

Yes, of course. When you measure how long something is, you're unknowingly also measuring how short it is. That’s the issue with comparisons like these.

This keeps me strong against the numerous detractors in this thread...

If--- by Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

These people way like to dey measure d*cks, nawao for una. Ur prick long, you know how long my own be?

mikeapollo:
My brother, stop personalizing and turning every post/comment into a ding-dong affair.
Interestingly, you were the one that tagged and responded to my earlier post, and you made your points. I did not take offence or attack you in my response. Now, see what you have typed. Totally unnecessary innuendoes.!

I said I suspected media houses of using stale, old news (e.g. of Q3 results) to fill-in potential empty spaces in their newspapers and websites.
Me suspecting if some people may be suppressing the news in order to mop up more shares, is purely guess work.
We all do some guess work in most of the analyses and commentaries here. . It only shows that there is some level of ''uncertainty'' or ''unknowns'' in the decisions or actions that we make/take, even in investing or investment considerations and permutations. It does not give anybody (or you) the right to talk down or judge anyone's sense of judgement or reasoning.

It baffles me how you could jump, turn into a ''coach'' and arrogate to yourself the fallacy of telling or ''advising'' people (me) on what to put their(my) mind on or off; talking about hazard to others if driving and all the crap!

If you care to know, my expected exit price for Oando (in case the buy-out happens) was around N10-N15. Hence, I am not under any pressure to sell or buy, even if it gets to N100 or crashes to N30. I would have sold long ago if I were to be under any anxiety or pressure.

So, I am cool, calm and collected just as many people here on this platform are.
Sometimes, we just give out a few info about our portfolios on this platform, just to share info, motivate and encourage ourselves and others, but some people would always have a different mind.
If my ''several million units'' is offensive to you (similar to how @bovali's N300m profit was), I cannot help it. No pun intended. I made that comment in context, (in response to your comment that people who bought it low are selling), not to infuriate or trigger the angst of anyone who may be hurt or angered for no reason.

So now you're making it about jealousy? I shared my opinion as a brother, based on the vibes I got from your numerous posts about Oando—just as you acknowledged in your post, saying, "We all do some guesswork in most of the analyses and commentaries here."

It's okay; let’s analyze your accusations in more detail. Why would I be jealous of your "several million units?" I don’t even know you, nor do I know if you’re being truthful (not that I care). Let’s assume I do know you—what would it take from me? Would it reduce my own units? I feel you’re the one painfully holding on to past discussions here. What does my exchange with Bovali have to do with you? And what if I actually end up having more units than you?

My brother, I am not in a contest with you. I simply shared what I felt in my heart as a concerned Nairaland member.

toyeoye:
This may hold some truth, but one thing is certain, the markets will closely monitor how telcos adapt to these changes, especially with the anticipated growth potential.

According to the Economic Value Added theory, there is something called WTP, or willingness to pay. This refers to the maximum price customers are willing to pay for a product or service. What I’m saying here is that if the price exceeds the WTP of consumers, they will either reduce consumption, find alternatives, or stop using the product altogether.

This may not improve things for companies like MTNN. I think they should also focus on increasing WTP and reducing WTS, or willingness to sell, by cutting costs and becoming more efficient.

Anyway, this won’t stop MTNN from appreciating today and in the coming days.

mikeapollo:
Yes, of course, an international oil bloc should be a big news. Unless the volumes of oil and gas that would be coming from the Angola bloc are insignificant.
I suspect some people may want to keep the news lying low in order for them to mop up more of Oando shares.

Are the "several million units" you own in Oando affecting your judgment? How can the same person criticize Oando for hyping irrelevant news to boost prices in one post and then accuse them of suppressing news in another? If you ask me, I’d say it’s time for you to chill, do some relaxation exercises, and take your mind off Oando for a while.

At this point, you might be a hazard to others, especially if you drive or engage in sensitive work.

mikeapollo:
I wonder why Nigeria media houses are relatively quiet/silent on the Angola oil bloc

Lol, Oando is a tough one around here. I'm sure if you could, you'd drive the price up like that (the way he dey do u for body), but figures like Oga Emma would drag it down just to prove how right they are (people way believe say dey can dictate d market). The reality is that Oando will fulfill its purpose at the right time. For now, those who got in below 10 are selling, while those who see value are buying at bargain prices. Let nature take its course and relax.

(For now, I need ibo and shayo, lass lass na everybody go chop breakfast)

Save that passion for your newly wedded spouse.

Where the Sis that introduced OJIJ dey? She come dey attack me with passion like say na him go carry NASCON go down, nothing way Musa no go see for gate.

IyaTola:
Our politicians are very intelligent men, a lot of them schooled abroad. If they could shut down crypto they will have done it. I mean we all know they tried to shut down twitter.

Let me tell you why crypto is the key to Africas economic growth.

Firstly let’s look at how America and china grew
1. The key to economic growth is rooted in production of value. Today china has over 239billion trade surplus with Europe. Which means china made 239billion from Europe after subtracting what they imported from Europe.
Now to create value you have to create something the other nations will buy. It could be software. American is exporting google to the rest of the world.

2. to create this value you need money. This money is created or printed by the government and given to banks who the loan this money to small medium and large businesses.
3. The masses then get this money through jobs.

Now let me tell you where Nigeria and Africa’s economic system is broken before we go to solutions.
1. Africa does not create much value because there are not enough businesses exporting something that the world needs
2. ⁠The reason there is not enough businesses creating global value is because the government is not printing money for everyone. They print, give it to banks and banks loan it to only big businesses like dangote and the likes. How many billions of nairas go to medium and small businesses. I’m every developed economy more money goes to these guys and the big businesses get the least. But the reverse is the case for us
3. ⁠the citizens don’t get any of this printed money because the businesses are not funded and then there are fewer low paying jobs for them.

Now you can see the error in our system

Lol, what a confusing post this is! First, you whet our appetite with the promise of explaining how crypto will benefit Africa's economic growth, but then you veer in a completely different direction midway. You also erroneously single out funding as the sole issue hindering Africa's productivity.

This aligns perfectly with the saying, "Many people are roaming, but only a few are mad."

Ginalex:
Did you read my response to one of them or you became blind all of a sudden?? If your new year resolution for 2025 is to become a monitoring spirit then I'm sorry to say that it's PATHETIC. Kindly face the business that pays you like I previously advised. Na you by yourself talk last year say you sell your Nascon at a loss of 800k. All of a sudden, you want to lecture me on how I should have handled my holdings... BOMB DEY YOUR HEAD

Admit you were wrong and make amendments—that's all. By the way, it was DangSugar, and Presco has done well for me.

Now, do you agree that I can and will quote you whenever I like? Is that clear? If you make a mistake, I have every right, as a registered member, to correct your errors. Just so you know, Nairaland is a public forum, and you have no say in who quotes you.

Na me send u to go sell at a loss, why u dey vent anger for me?

Ginalex:
The Warren Buffet of NSEMPA... The all knowing 6ft7 inches tall Stock market expert... Can you face front and mind the business that pays you for once? face your portfolio and stop lecturing people who didn't ask for your opinion on how to handle theirs. Shish!! Is it that hard??ehn tall fine boy?

Face the facts and stop diverting. I have the right to respond to any post here—you don’t own Nairaland. If you don’t like that, stop posting. As long as Nairaland remains a free forum for sharing ideas, and the ability to quote members is still in place, I will continue to do so.

Now, back to the matter at hand: use words correctly to avoid confusing people. Two people have already asked you how you managed to short-sell.

Nyama Nyama Nonsense...

Ginalex:
My oga I no kon dey see your break light. Shey na Osita wahala make you abandon us ??

All these short women never take corrections. I’m talking to you, yet you’re calling everyone else. What you explained is not a clever move, whether it works or not, especially when you’re already at a loss. I’m playing with you here.

And what’s with the wrong use of specific terms? What do you think short selling means? Or the abbreviation WACC that you often misuse here?

Ginalex:
GETAT biko ... You too like to find trouble 😒😒. If you like mention the school, na you sabi

I am telling you nah, I know you. You know book that time, no be primary five you take enter secondary school? I fit call the school name here sef. No dey vex for me ooo, how body?

emmanuelewumi:
The strategy that turned a N5 million portfolio to a N20 million portfolio in 2 years, can't turn a N50 million portfolio to a N200 million portfolio in 3 years

But buy and hold presco turned 5 mulla into 20 something mulla, are u saying 50 mulla today no go turn to 200 million in 3 years? Oga no vex, I just dey ask ooo.

Ginalex:
Na you get power to explain to Osita about my investment decision... You're too generous with your time for someone like Osita who likes to look for issues where there are none... I no kuku send am

You know say you be celebrity to me, I dey follow your talks closely ooo, as you give heads up on NASCON na him I rush enter with my last card. I value ur talks o, no dey vex for me abeg. Na from the same place we come o, I think I been know u when u been dey primary school, but i no go talk the school.

Xidget:
E no bad o if she can get in today at 36 cos I think I have seen it at 36 today. Even me sef, if I had known it will pullback, I for sell at 42 and buy back today at 36 - 37. #6 is a lot o.

Ok, noted.

We learn every day; the latest game in town is OJIJ (counter JIJO). Ginalex na you teach me this one.

Xidget:
To see NASCON at 32 again to tey. But the good thing is that she can still be able to get in at maybe 34 - 36. Which is below her selling price, so it's a win win.

Because of small pull back, she go sell, stock way dey pay dividend, and she don tey for the stock too, why not wait small? No be so Oga Loco dey do him own Jijo, u dey loss, u go sell, so u go enter again for lower. This one na OJIJ.

Zegra:
She wants to buy back at 32 but how sure that NASCON will go back to 32

So, na 32 be the resistance now, Ok. I no know nah. Why she come dey vex for me, I don't know.

Ginalex:
Osita please I'm not in the mood for your yappings. Someone called out a stock at 29 and I called the person a genius when the stock rallying and even got to 42.35. what's the "fear woman" in this comment? Or I shouldn't appreciate him for a job well done because of what Osita will say? Kindly point me to where I started hawking Nascon that it'll reach the moon? Abeggggg! This is a new year.. drop that bad character of attacking people because you think you're this thread police.

I entered NASCON because of you, thinking I would reap a bountiful harvest, and now you've left me in the dust. Why?

Abeg no vex, na me suppose dey vex sef.

Oga Loco don market Chams tire walka, why una dey do like this na? Next bull him go come back.

Ginalex:
Nascon sha... I did a short selling at 42-42.30 yesterday hoping to buy back if/when it dips... Wacc was 48.11 though. If I'm able to buy back at 32 at least, I should be able to recoup most of the realized loss🌚

Fear women, oh! The same person who was shouting genius the other day has now sold at a loss today. Why did you sell at a loss? I thought we all agreed that Nascon was heading to the moon! You don leave us walker, chai.

emmaodet:
You are right with the valuation of 80-90 though i don't see them struggling with energy cost because operating expenses only rose by 3.8% between 9M/2024 and 9M/2023 while revenue grew by 76% during those periods.

my concern is their account receivable rising alot which means buyers are owing them more and inventory rising alot too - Both of these means product is struggling to move in the market thereby having more in store and buyers struggling to sell the ones they have so as to pay back their debts.
We can confirm this looking at their - Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) which is the number o days it takes the company to convert inventory to cashflow.
CCC = DIO (time to sell your products) + DSO ( time to collect money from customers) - DPO (time to pay your bills)
CCC = 91 +124 - 67 = 148 days ( we want less than 30 days, though we will compare with their peers in the same sector)
It takes 91 days for betaglass to sell their products, 124 days to collect the money and 67 days to pay contractors/suppliers of of raw materials.
With this, we can see betaglass is under pressure to pay their own bills (67 days) compared to the days it takes them to produce and get back their money (215 days)
Let's look back at betaglass CCC 5 years history to see if they are improving or not -

DIO ( 2020 - 2024 LTM) = 130 - 109 - 78 - 96 -91 -So as we can see, this number is improving. Taking betaglass 3 months to sell their products compared to previous 4 months plus. We want less than 30 days though.
DSO (2020 - 2024 LTM) = 85 - 68 - 75 - 74 - 124 - It takes 4 months to get back their money from buyers compare to 3 months previous. This number is getting bad. We want less than 30 days
DPO (2020 - 2024 LTM) - 98 - 83 - 67 - 74 - 67 - This number is reducing from 3 months to 2 months for betaglass to pay back contractors. It is not good. We want 90+

I remember when you started, and I admire your dedication—it truly gives you strength. I tried doing all of this myself and failed. It’s not hard, but it’s tedious and requires a lot of commitment. I think some people actually make a living from this. With enough capital, you can even play the markets full-time.

As for me, I’m too lazy and busy at the same time. So, I take shortcuts: I try to gauge market sentiment, watch what the big players are doing, and ride along with them. I’m sure they’re doing all the hard work—running laborious calculations and acting on them. My strategy is to watch the charts and volumes, get a sense of the market, and do the bare minimum, lol.

We all take shortcuts, don’t we? When you bought your car, TV, or computer, I bet you didn’t download the datasheets or analyze the intricate details of each component’s performance. You likely just asked around or checked online, trusting that others had already done the heavy lifting—or simply because they were using those products themselves.

Of course, this method has its flaws. The people you’re polling might be relying on polls themselves, and the whole cycle could be based on a baseless rumor or even manipulation, lol. This is a major problem with technical analysis.

Sorry for the long epistle!

Streetinvestor2:
Why is business/investment really like this in the statements above.Is it fear of not taking risk and playing safe.Or because you feel you have arrived your comfort zone

This is common sense. I’m sure that, as a businessman, you already know the answer and just wanted to hear his perspective.

Businesses often hit the ceiling of their market share, which can be influenced by factors such as location, company size, product type, and product quality. If you can’t expand your market share, injecting more capital into the business will result in diminishing efficiency.

This is one reason why successful entrepreneurs often diversify into other businesses—when their available capital exceeds the needs of their current business. Some try to expand their market share by offering more products, exporting, or investing in related businesses.

The ability of management to widen their market share or tap into new opportunities is a key factor that drives sustained business growth.

Ecom 101

emmaodet:
Beta Glass -
The company is into the production of glass bottles for companies like Smirnoff Ice, Mcdowells, Squadron, Best Whisky, Chelsea, Lord's Gin, Royal Eagle, Schnapps, Orijin Bitters, Veleta wine, Amstel Malt, Guinnenss, Heineken, Guilder, 33, Harp, Trophy Goldberg and many more.
They also pproduce glass bottles crow cover ( bottle covers we use openers for
hey also produce drinks crates e.g crates for cokes etc

Revenue (2020 - 2024E) = 25.6b - 37b - 54.3b - 62.9b - 105b (E)
Revenue YOY (2020 to 2024E) = 44.5% - 46.8% - 15.8% - 67% (E)
Net Profit (2020 - 2024E) = 3.5b - 5.5b - 4.7b - 6.4b - 10.5b (E)
Net Margin (2020 - 2024E) = 13.7% - 14.9% - 8.7% -10.2% - 10% (E)
EPS (2020 - 2024E) = 6.93 - 10.92 -7.81 - 10.74 - 17.5 (E)
Equity ( 2020 - 2024E) = 37.2b - 42.1 - 46.3b - 52b - 60b(E)

She is spending less to make more sales/revenue which reduced from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024
Balance sheet is deteriorating due to Debt rising very much of 31.4b than cash of 12b compared to previous year of cash 26.8b and debt 24.6b
Account receivable increased by 800% from 3b to 27b
Inventory increased by 100% to7.3b
FCF reduced 121% from 9.6b to -2b. Negative FCF of -2b

Dep. Margin improved to 21% from 31.5% but we want 10%
Capex margin improved to 68.6% from 85% but we still prefer 25%

5% of revenue came from exported products while 95% sales is from local base.

Current P/E = 4.1, Forward P/E = 3.7, 5yrs P/E (mean) = 5.4, Current price = #64.9
Calculating for the implied earnings:

TTM earnings per share = Current price ÷ TTM P/E
#64.9 ÷ 4.1 = #15.83 (TTM EPS)
Forward earnings per share = Current price ÷ Forward P/E
#64.9 ÷ 3.7 = #17.54 (Forward EPS)

Using the TTM EPS = #15.83, Forward EPS = #17.54, historical 5-year average P/E of 5.4:
TTM-based price:
Implied Price = TTM EPS × Historical P/E
#15.83 × 5.4 = #85.48

Forward-based price:
Implied Price = Forward EPS × Historical P/E
#17.54 × 5.4 = #94.72

Therefore, based on the company's own historical valuation:

Using TTM earnings, the implied price is #85.48
Using forward earnings, the implied price is #94.72

Since the current price is $64.90, this suggests the stock might be undervalued by:

#20.58 (31.7%) based on TTM earnings
#29.82 (46.0%) based on forward earnings

Let me start by saying that I haven’t looked deeply into the details beyond glancing at the audited 2023 earnings and the unaudited third-quarter 2024 earnings. The rest of my analysis is based on basic technical analysis and statistics.

My estimated final EPS for 2024 is similar to yours at 16.9. If the dividend follows the very low payout from 2023, it should be around ₦1.8 per share. It looks like a solid company focused on growth, which explains why only 11% of earnings are being paid as dividends. This low dividend payout pattern may continue, as the chart doesn’t show any anomalies in volume—unless, of course, they’re exceptionally good at hiding information.

With the kind of EPS they’re generating, the stock should be trading between ₦92 and ₦177, but the low dividend payout is holding back share price growth. This is the type of company that could issue a bonus in the future, perhaps something like a 3-for-2 stock split.

I’ll be keeping an eye out for anomalies in trading volume. While I believe the stock price will rise, I also expect it to dip below the current price at some point during the year due to the low dividend payout, only to recover later.