₦airaland Forum

essentialone1:
Please, if you are the one, what decision will you take about these stocks presently?

1. DAARCOMM
2. Fidson
3. Honeywell Flour
4. Omatek
5. UCAP

Buy, Hold, or Sell?

This kind ting I never see o
I pressure dey high got me down wo-woh
My UCAP low down to me o
Never ever leve me for crash o-wo-woh
UCAP you dey make me shiver o
UCAP if you leave I suffer o
With you I get no wahala o
I wan dey with you forever

Roboskehskeh roboskehskeh
If not be you then tell me who o
Dem go sempe dem go sempe
Nobody messing with my boo
Roboskehskeh roboskehskeh
If no be you then tell me who o
Roboskehskeh robo-yes-skeh
Nobody messing with my boo

Ma lo oh, Jor oh
You give me love I never see oh
Ma lo oh, Jor oh
Your love mean so much to me oh
Ma lo oh, Jor oh
You give me love I never see oh
Ma lo oh, Jor oh
Your love mean so much to me oh

Not be what you do or what you say
My love is single nor be plural yeah
Brother no be mouth, but my bobo you be plural, yeah
Bonnie and Clyde
It's how I feel when I'm rolling with you
Number one ni Africa baddest stock
And the Starboy you know how we do
UCAP, you scatter my heart, you
And you load my accounti, you
See I no go comot you

Stock way dey pay more than initial investment, if to say I invest 100 million, I go dey collect that same 100 million every year by now. And he never tay sef, just 2020 ooo.

The rest I don talk am, I talk say DAARCOMM go move say book value too pass capitalization that time way him be sub 50k. Fidson, i do analysis for that guy way dey like ask Oga Emma and CP and BBM question. Him name be EziokwuNwoko.Eh dey go up.

SonofElElyonRet:
See what I'm saying? The loan provider is an American mortgage provider, not a Nigerian company. You guys disgust me

You brought this advert into a stock discussion thread, and when it was criticized, you should have ignored it. Instead, you chose to argue, despite being wrong from the beginning. Can you explain how this is relevant to Nigerian stocks, or are you just trying to cause chaos here?

awesomeJ:
N2.5m car at that time is worth at least N5m except the owner lives in a terrible neighborhood where the car has gotten into very bad shape.

This is sort of the first time the saying of cars being depreciating assets proved false, cos almost everyone who wants to sell cars bought in 2022 now will get more money for the car in naira terms.


About companies revaluing their assets, without any regulatory constraints, they should consider it.

When NESTLE did in it 2024, the assets showing N91bn in their books were revalued to N315bn which was more in line with reality.

I mean how much was one acre in agbara before, how much is it worth today, how about 10,000Kva Perkins generator, etc.

That is why some TA theories may not work as expected. Specifically, the so-called "Burundi Bull" followed by the "mother of all crashes" that some practitioners promote does not apply here. I like to think there is no general bull market; instead, what we are witnessing is a repricing of stocks, either gradually or rapidly in some cases.

I expect an upward movement in stock values, as I have mentioned before. In the near future, stocks could become a way to regain lost value, though this is inherently risky because it relies on crowd decisions. But, in the long term, I believe most stocks will adjust upwards—not necessarily because they are creating more value, but simply because currency has depreciated relative to asset values.

For example, by owning my 2023 mobile phone, my assets have effectively increased. Had I decided not to buy the phone and instead held onto cash, I would have been worth less in real terms.

One strategy, in my opinion, is to focus on companies with substantial physical assets. These companies should reprice accordingly, regardless of their earnings, as long as they are performing adequately and not burdened by negative sentiment. Some of these companies have already repriced to an extent, but I expect more upward adjustments.

This is just my reasoning as a layman. I am not an economist—just a below average person sharing my thoughts.

To the FA crowd: Are we likely to see an upward repricing of most company assets as financial results start getting released? A Tokunbo car purchased for ₦2.5 million in 2022 is now worth ₦4 to ₦5 million. Similarly, land, buildings, and other assets have all seen significant price increases. I believe the asset sections of most stock reports will be revised upwards. How will the market react when this happens, or is it already adjusting in anticipation?

LOL, some people are liking my posts now because Total dropped by 10%. You're still learning. Give it 3 to 6 months, and let's see the scores then. I'll do my boasting when the time comes, haha. Let TotalEnergies fall even further—let's see it hit 300, and I'll do more justice to it.

Locotrader:
It is called hit or miss.
Sometimes,when you have a large quantity of stock,getting partnership or contract with the company becomes so easy.

As it stands now,I may have more ideas of what is happening in chams or privilege info but may not disclose to anyone and I may not find it so easy to sell about 23m units of chams in my custody without informing the mgt.All I need is the growth of chams and it's share price which is inevitable in a space of 12 months.

Loco is now an investor in chams and will always add up when I sense a very strong improvements in the group.

The outstanding shares amount to 4,696,060,000.00. This represents your 0.0049. Alternatively, we can say it would take 20,417 Locos to cover 100%. Ok nah. You be 1 out of 20,417, you sure say dey know say you be Loco?

Do you want to play it super safe, or are you willing to allocate a portion of your money to a very safe bet? The banking sector might be the way to go, leveraging the power of an index. Yes, something similar to the index funds you often hear about. You don’t need any special skills—just trust in Nigeria.

Here’s why: consider banking stocks ['FCMB', 'STANBIC', 'ACCESSCORP', 'FBNH', 'NPFMCRFBK', 'UNITYBNK', 'JAIZBANK', 'WEMABANK', 'ETI', 'FIDELITYBK', 'UBA', 'ZENITHBANK', 'GTCO']. If you had invested equal amounts in January and rebalanced in December to take profits, your returns (excluding dividends) would look like this:

2020: 66.5%

2021: -1.2%

2022: 41.2%

2023: 100.1%

2024: 26.5%


This performance is based purely on price appreciation. 2025 might not be any different. Simply give equal weight to these stocks, ignore market fluctuations throughout the year, and check back on December 27 to collect your profits. That’s it—a straightforward, no-fuss strategy.

Raider76:
Please what % deviation above the 10-day volume moving average constitutes an anomaly?

What I mean by the 10-day moving window is that it tracks all anomalies occurring within the last 10 days, starting from the current day. Each new day drops the earliest day from the list, maintaining a rolling 10-day period.

Regarding the volume anomaly, I analyzed the volumes from the past 252 days (excluding the current day) and calculated the rolling mean and standard deviation. If the current day’s volume exceeds the mean plus 2 standard deviations, I consider it an anomaly (or what stats people call an outlier). Additionally, for it to qualify as an anomaly, the price change must remain within ±2%.

Streetinvestor2:
This was just confirm that it is MM doing his thing based on the units and amounts involved. If the aim is to push it high so that they will come to the market at high price to raise money. I wonder the mugu they are cooking the meal for in this present nse market.
I called out the chart to see the kind of units and money involved to really see if na manipulation or not.Thr MM are not really smart. Everyday you will not see something reasonable on bid/offer table. At the end of business you go see 10%gain continously.

Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t market manipulation. All I can see is an increase in volume in cash terms. This stock has been highly illiquid, averaging well below 50 million naira monthly. But, November saw a spike to 143 million naira, and this December, it jumped to 337 million naira.

I don’t fully understand the MM argument for a few reasons. If you’re using 337 million or a fraction of it to pump the price, wouldn’t potential investors conduct some level of due diligence to assess its valuation? How confident can you be that the money spent on pumping will be recovered? Unless the goal is to carry out a rights issue at the prevailing price, it might not end well for the manipulators.

On the other hand, it’s possible that something is brewing in the books—something we haven’t seen yet plus low float.

emmanuelewumi:
About N13 billion worth of Aradel shares traded today, Aradel should be the most liquid stock on NGX

The billions club by date, totalenergies still show face. The banks own na normal normal.

Streetinvestor2:
TA guys.Did chart capture what is happening in Sanu insurance. At what price did the accumulation happen. Make una post the chart so we can all see the volume at this steady gain.

Kind of... On 25-10-2024, it flagged on my screener. It first showed symptoms in the filter: a jump in volume with minimal price change. This stock, which typically traded at less than 2 million daily on average—and sometimes under 200k—suddenly did over 6 million naira that day, without much price movement. It was still trading below 2 naira.

I’m not claiming I see everything—most stocks don’t behave this way. In fact, many don’t. Also, sometimes the signal indicates a sell, as sellers might have better information.

Let me share my current list of volume anomalies. The screener uses a moving 10-day window of data. Check some of the older dates—some stocks have already gained in value since they were first spotted, and some showed the anomaly more than once. Look at today’s new arrivals and let’s see what happens with them.

One more thing: this is just a preliminary observation and requires further analysis before investing your hard-earned money. For example, even though I noticed SUNU Assurances, I didn’t bother analyzing it, so I didn’t bet on it.

Toluway:
I'm eagerly waiting to hear this song. I'm also a singer 😁

This song has been stuck in my head since morning—"Maswelebo." I can't stop singing it: Maswele, Maswele Bo... Please, someone help me get it out of my head! Abeg oooo, chai

Happy New Year, everyone! Wishing you all a successful 2025, whatever success means to you.

Streetinvestor2:
At what price range is your chart showing accumulation
Though I expect it to hit 1k after 2024/q1 2025 results. I have afolabi units bought above #300

The accumulation is happening at the current price, although some people are buying below 610 intraday. That’s not the point; the key takeaway is that people willingly bought at this high price, with transactions totaling 2 billion naira, for a stock that averaged below 400 million naira monthly at lower prices in the past. My guess is that something significant is happening, assuming the premises in my earlier posts are valid.

Anyway, I’ve attached some charts. On each bar, there are three numbers: the value in naira for that period, the return during that period, and the last price of the period. One chart is for daily data, and the other is for monthly data.

Some premises make developing markets like Nigeria interesting.

Market Structure:
- The market lacks complex derivatives and hedging tools that fragment trading in developed markets. This means when someone wants to take a position, they often have to do it directly in the stock.

- With fewer institutional players and automated systems, large trades are more likely to represent actual investment decisions rather than technical rebalancing.

- Ownership is often concentrated among a smaller group of players who may have better access to information networks.

Information Flow:
- News often travels through business/social networks before hitting official channels

- With fewer research analysts, many stocks have limited coverage, meaning price-moving information isn't as thoroughly analyzed and distributed

- Corporate disclosures might be less frequent and detailed than in developed markets

- This information asymmetry means market prices sometimes move before news becomes public

Volume Signals in This Context:
- When you see unusually high volume, it's less likely to be due to index rebalancing or options expiry

- If prices stay stable despite large volume, it could mean:
* A well-informed buyer is accumulating carefully
* Someone with conviction about future developments is taking position
* Multiple informed parties might be active

- The limited number of major players means significant volume often has more direct meaning


Copied...

For example, keep an eye on TotalEnergies—something is brewing there, most likely something positive that could drive the price up. The signs are already showing on the chart. Perhaps three to six months down the line, when the news finally breaks, you'll consider buying, lol.

motymop:
lol

this is the event that happened IN Oando stock price and i am not using TA, but just following the news and rumours

if you follow the news, you would made *3 of your money

my prediction is that Oando share price will get dumped in 4-6 months, if no new acquisition happen

what made Oando pump is simply buy the news sell the rumor and it is all related to the agip deal.

When tinunu became president, share prices were at 4.9 naira

from march 2023- may 2024, insiders and banks were buying up shares.

then retail started pumping the price up

after the agip deal in august 2024, price pumped to 89 naira.

so it was literally a buy the news, sell the rumour event.

you do not need TA

So, you've made your prediction. Let me tell you something—there are always people who are privy to early information, whether through direct knowledge or other means. These insights often reflect on the chart ahead of time. Most of the time, you'll notice large volumes without significant price movement. That's someone in the know taking a position, even before the news breaks (sometimes months ahead of the news).

This is just one of many subtle signals. If you know where to look, the chart will "speak" to you before the news becomes public, as long as there are people motivated by potential gains this will keep happening. Like electricity, you can’t hold it or see it, but its effects are undeniable, and those with the right tools can measure it.

You don’t have to believe me—just stick to the strategy you trust.

motymop:
Haha

Person they use TA for Nigerian stocks

Stocks wet no get volumes and wey insiders they manipulate

Eh dey work bro, if u see insider manipulation u go still know. Make i tell you something, tory way day, long ago like 15th century in China a smart local rice trader invented a crude form of candle charts we use today, the baba use the thing hammer then. Remember say the market na small market with plenty farmers way dey manipulate market then, but d Baba use him chart chop wella, and na only am dey do am then, before him come dey teach him pikin them.

BullBearMkt:
...Osita Baba! You & these your TA tools being subjective

Baba, yes nah, you fit run your own analysis give similar or entirely different results. I just play, i no know watin i do, maybe the probability is high that eh go go up.

BullBearMkt:
Oga Toluway succinctly did the analysis with Renko Line Break bars. Just to add a bit of context:
-Cadbury's price is showing momentum after last trading week's rejection below 20.
-Price likely targeting above 29
-But first, it needs to clear the hurdle @26.50 in the coming days.

I am not a big fan of Fibonacci due to its subjective nature, but let’s give it a try. The first chart is a basic Renko chart. I used the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio to make the projections.

In the first chart, I projected the previous upswing from the low at 17 (which I refer to as point A) to arrive at the marked point at 25 (which I call point B). Using the previous low, I then projected downward to 20 (point C), as shown in the next image—a schematic of the swings. Finally, I made another projection to around 32, which you might also call point D. Both B and C are marked in red as they represent projections.

In simple terms, I expect Cadbury to reverse its current upward movement around 25, potentially drop to 20, and then continue higher to approximately 32 and possibly beyond, based on my subjective application of Fibonacci ratios.

I would wait to possibly catch the bus around 20. And that’s a wrap!

bajiaqsa0:
It may reach 46, but rest assured it will eventually fall significantly. In fact, I would start offloading it now so I can trade in other stocks. With a dividend of just 0.22 naira per share, even the current trading price of 30 naira seems overly optimistic. Unless they declare a dividend of 1.8 naira per share, the company is bought out, or it goes private, the price will likely crash to below 20 naira. Let’s see what Mr. time reveals.

Is this your version of hacking? You try?

currentprice:
compliment bro. I can see you are eager to know the FP of uacn from your post over few days... bear in mind, given a fair value here does not mean the stock will get to that price or the price will not go above the fp. the koko is enter a good company and get out at your target... valuation of a company is continuous... FP may worth N10 this quarter and worth less or more in the next quarter report... I remember when I gave alert on Nacho @ less than N6.. as it then my valuation price was N26. I personally sold mine at N27. today the price is N46 .

for me I do try to carry good researches and seek some of my Ogas opinions on a stock before pointing it out. I will never come here to point out a stock based on hope or MH, UACN has been below N10 for some months but never worth pointing out based on my bedsheet.. no alert of such but when it move close to N20 and the FA look good on bedsheet , it become attractive for Alert.

..to your post on UACN fp, my bedsheet based on their latest report so far is N45 it could get better or worst with new information any time

It may reach 46, but rest assured it will eventually fall significantly. In fact, I would start offloading it now so I can trade in other stocks. With a dividend of just 0.22 naira per share, even the current trading price of 30 naira seems overly optimistic. Unless they declare a dividend of 1.8 naira per share, the company is bought out, or it goes private, the price will likely crash to below 20 naira. Let’s see what Mr. time reveals.

Olaide1295:
You people bring politics into economic conversations and will complain when the argument doesn’t go in your favor. You can say politics and economy are related, but where is the line? Some people like me believe this President is on the right track and have evidences to back it up. But if we start having the political back-forth on this thread, won't it derail the conversation?

HesInMe:
C'mon. If you believe the current policies are the right ones, you have to be able to tell us: 1) when they will work, 2) how they will work, and 3) how we will know that they're working, i.e., what objective evidence we should look out for to track progress.

Just saying trust Tinubu, or blaming the other guy, or trying to whip up ethnic division is so unsatisfactory when there is grinding hunger across the land. Defend the policies on the substance.

You should stop complaining and make do with whatever your leaders provide. Learn to take advantage of the situation, as every challenge presents an opportunity. For example, in a water-flooded area, it's better to be the person who owns a fleet of canoes than the one stuck with a Mercedes 190. Everything else is just talk. Leaders come and go—T-Pain will rule and leave, and we don’t even know if the next president will reinstate all the subsidies.

In Nigeria, every leader does what they believe is politically right. There is no continuity, only corruption and looting. So, all these arguments are pointless because time moves on, and tomorrow will bring a new set of challenges.

manwomanok:
@ skydiver01 , Akerewe ,freeman67, emmasoft, ositadima1 and other boss in the house. help pls

Everything you need is right here. First, this is a secondary market offering, which explains the presence of bid-ask quotes. The offer price of 98.64 means you are buying the bond at a slight discount since it was originally issued at 100.

The bond's initial rate was 19.88%, but because you are purchasing it at a discount, your effective rate increases to 20.21%. With an investment of 20 million, this bond should earn you 4,042,000 annually. If the coupon is paid semi-annually, you'll receive half of this amount in November and the other half in May each year until 2033.

In 2033, assuming you hold the bond to maturity, you will receive your 20 million principal plus an additional 272,000 (the government will pay the face value, not the discounted purchase price).

One more thing to keep in mind: depending on when you bought the bond, you may need to pay accrued interest to the current holder. For example, if you purchase the bond in April, you can't expect to receive the full coupon payment; you'll need to cover the interest accrued up to that point. This distinction is tied to the concepts of the clean price (price without accrued interest) and the dirty price (price including accrued interest).

And that’s a wrap!

robobo:
do u mean u are expecting price to drop so yield could get nearer to / equal bonds and treasury bills yield?

I think so. To move a stock, you need willingness from both buyers and sellers, not necessarily the volume traded. Many stocks trade over 1 billion Naira in a day, yet their prices don’t move. You may see value, but if the market doesn’t anticipate short-term gains, it struggles to react. I believe that if treasury bills and bonds were yielding significantly less than dividends, we would have seen a strong bull market. Just my opinion though—some stocks don’t follow this pattern sha.

Dividend analysis: These appear to be the top dividend payers. Look at the dividend yield and the projected yield, assuming a 30% increase in dividend payouts. They are far below the returns from bonds and treasury bills if purchased today. I anticipate we will see corrections, as I don’t foresee prices rising significantly in the near future unless we’re surprised by a substantial dividend increase. Of course, this is purely a dividend analysis.

Youngzedd:
Wizkid, Davido & Burna Boy turn heads as they perform at OANDO end of the year party in Lagos

https://www.intelregion.com/entertainment/wizkid-davido-burna-boy-turn-heads-as-they-perform-at-oando-end-of-the-year-party-video/

In the AGM meeting, they discussed that 1% of the profit before tax is allocated to the Oando Foundation. In 2022, this amounted to 543 million Naira, and in 2023, it is projected to be approximately 1 billion Naira.

Flexing money dey bafu bafu.

Pesuzok:
You are funny, so why is it the bad things you are learning.

I remembered when you were a good boy during your NYSC

Let me tell you a story. In 2008, a few weeks before completing my NYSC, I had an interesting evening. After returning from a stroll, I decided to light up some weed. I found a packet of matches in the kitchen, and after rolling the joint, I tried to light it. Matchstick after matchstick, they would ignite briefly and then extinguish immediately.

I went through an entire new packet of matches, but nothing worked. It was too late to go out and get more, so, frustrated, I did something unusual—I threw the joint in my mouth, paper and all, and started munching on it. Not long after, I drifted off to sleep.

The next morning, everything felt different. My world was in slow motion... A good boy, wouldn’t you agree?

yMcy56:
Osita, the resolution mentioned something like "or cash consideration" , though I want to believe cash couldn't be an option since Wale himself commented against it.
The Board will analyze this critically I Blvd.

Make dem sha no fumble because enemies plenty wey dey wish the distribution fails. 😁

It is done and dusted; the shareholders have already voted in favor of the resolution. The big man even explained that other shareholders will go from 42% to 65%, and the majority shareholder from 23% to 35% or so. This gives more power to the minority, hence his mention that the takeover will not work after this.

They will not pay money, and if they do, who will inherit the shares? This would mean the management still has the intention to buy out.

Designking will get his 2.5 million guaranteed. 👍

Streetinvestor2:
is it not the same thing if you attach a figure to the share held eg 100 units. Na still 50 additional be dat

Not the same thing. A 3-for-2 means 150 units for every 100 held, while a 1-for-2 means 50 units for every 100 held. I was doing the calculation around 2 a.m. or so, with dirty eyes.

ositadima1:
Background

Ansbury was involved in a dispute with Whitmore Asset Management Limited in 2019. This dispute led to Whitmore buying out Ansbury's interest in Ocean and Oil Development Partners Limited (OODP) as a full and final settlement.

The restructuring involves Whitmore transferring its 60% shareholding in OODP, equivalent to nearly 4.3 billion Oando shares, to Oando as settlement for a $325 million debt.

Share Restructuring

Shares Outstanding: 12.4 billion

Therefore, 4.3 billion shares, or 34.68%, will be equally distributed to other shareholders.

The remaining 65.3% will now represent 100% of the equity.

As a result, 1 share post-restructuring increases to:
100% / 65.3% = 1.53.

This means 1 share becomes equivalent to 1.53 shares, or approximately 3 shares for every 2 shares.

Due date

An amendment to the share distribution plan was approved during the AGM, requiring Oando to provide a five-day notice to shareholders before any distribution occurs.

Thank you.

This part is wrong: ...or approximately 3 shares for every 2 shares...

1 share becomes equivalent to 1.53...

"Therefore, every share gained 0.53, which is equivalent to 0.53 shares for every share held, or, removing the fraction, 1 share for every 2 shares held."

Thanks again...