₦airaland Forum

KarlTom:
SEPLAT

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42694_SEPLAT_ENERGY_PLC-CORPORATE_ANNOUNCEMENT_ON_COMPLETION_SEPLAT__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_DECEMBER_2024.pdf

We have an ongoing project at the MPN facility in QIT near Eket. They have started discontinuing their official email handles, and I heard that the handover of the plant will take place tomorrow, the 13th.

Xidget:
I have been wanting to buy some at 431 but the mountain of available offers at the moment is scary. I will wait for it to make another dip. Cos the only way now is down.

For the past two months or more, the stock has been steady, closing at 478.8, while the VWAP is around 431. This indicates that the daily average sales are at 431. Unless the numerous offers you mentioned only recently appeared, or you are not analyzing them correctly, the price should have dropped by now. Whatever the case, if the FA aligns, there’s no need to focus too much on the bid/ask data, as it is often misleading (I can tell you why).

I see a dividend of 35 naira, and using the discount formula, a target price of 915 seems likely.

Then, the exportation to Central America that was mentioned will, hopefully, begin next year or shortly thereafter.

Dangcem may reach 915 by next year or early 2026, particularly when they increase their dividend to about 35 naira. It is a strong contender for a 100% return. This projection is purely based on technical valuation; I will conduct the FA later to see if both align. Feel free to challenge me (shoot me down) if this prediction fails, but if it does come true, remember it was me—the "oversabi" guy—who first brought it to your attention.

jonnysessy:
You can say that again.

I don’t even know you, yet I read word for word on this thread. It means you contribute nothing—you’re just a leech. But it’s okay.

vacanci:
He always thinks he is Mr Know it all. Every other person is wrong.

My reading strategy on this thread is whenever i see his moniker, i jump am pass so i can read faster

Bro, do whatever you like, it is a free world.

crownprince2017:
I wondered why people disturb themselves with what is none of their business.
What concerns me or you with with someone's gender on a faceless forum when you are not having any business transactions together.

This type of attack is uncalled for and should be stopped to avoid derailing the forum from it primary objectives. After all, nobody is paying anybody for any service here.

Bovali and and others have right to share their opinions on any stock without any boundaries.

It's your choice to make decisions.

Wapco valuation without buyout is around 70-75, next q results will clear all doubts.

Plan your trade and trade your plans.

You are exercising your right by making this statement, and so am I. There is no rule preventing me from questioning anything, nor is there one stopping me from criticizing a post.

If I say B, you say o another man say v
Omo na you sabi...

Dey say na January, ok nah, make we dey watch.

Watin dey happen with that man with f ? Why are you swearing?

rmx:



No man is infallible , and i think people are aware of this already

Reminds me of oracle and some of his projections , and subsequent unexplained disappearance

But people must do there due diligence and take responsibility for any advice they take from here , good or bad , or else all analysis and hints will be stifled including good ones , yours inclusive

What gets me is the confidence they exude when making such statements. I don’t think I’ve ever used words that imply such certainty when making predictions. When you speak with too much confidence and make bold claims, someone will inevitably be there to remind you of your failure. In this instance, that person is me, and so far, the predictions are failing.

Hahaha... ☝️

Streetinvestor2:
It is called PDP on the street

Lol, nothing way person no go see for ichimoku.

Oyibo will develop a pattern-scanning tool tailored to their own markets and timelines. Then, you’ll read about it somewhere and adopt it blindly, without considering that our market operates under entirely different conditions.

Did the creator account for the 100,000-block moves? Did they factor in our market’s strict ±10% limits?

Yet, you’ll lift a TA tool without making the necessary adjustments or building one from scratch, and still feel like a sage.

As for him, he probably invested in the banking sector. That 100% target might take a while.

Mcy56, even without using Ichimoku, does a better job. At least if you follow her strictly, you can make some money.

But Mcy56, why do you underestimate yourself? You’re a guru. Don’t dilute your evident skills by aligning with these so-called “Ogas.” Just my two cents.

Where is the bull, and where is the crash? You’d better stick to your adult jokes—that’s where you shine.

BuchyD:
You do know that the only thing certain in life is uncertainty...... You sound as though you're clairvoyant.

Bigger & better stocks have performed below expectations in the past.

Let's try to be moderate on optimism.

When they were calculating WAPCO up and down, I told them to calm down. The thread was full of calculations yet offered no clear direction on where to go from there. Both the ones with undefined gender.

Before then, the likes of Agba and Loco were here talking about how we would see a bull market followed by the mother of all crashes, I calmly told them to relax—that the market would continue its volatile movement and that there was never going to be any crash.

I am surprised how the same people who have predicted incorrectly on countless occasions still have the audacity to talk about the market, with all their Ichimoku cloud and other technical analysis.

It makes me believe that all they can offer is comic relief.

essentialone:
Thanks

A yo-yo is a toy consisting of a string attached to a spool. When you hold one end of the string and let the toy drop, it unrolls to the end of the string and then rolls back up. It’s somewhat similar to our local spinning tops, but instead of spinning on the ground, a yo-yo operates using gravity and tension in the string.

Streetinvestor2:
Why should he use nse index. How many people use that here to calculate thr returns or trade the index.why didn't you complain about the 1750 for dollar which could be extreme position going forward in this devaluation thing..
Lol

There’s no way you could have predicted how well OKOMUOIL would perform 10 years ago, given the many stocks available at the time—any one of them could have been chosen. In your portfolio, some stocks underperformed while others did very well. If you could see the future, would you have invested in the underperforming stocks back then? Selecting OKOMUOIL for this comparison, rather than Nigerian Breweries, reflects the bias of using today’s information to judge yesterday’s decisions. As for the dollar, there are no alternative options—you either invest or you don’t.

GeeKudi:
The link to that document was posted here. You admitted to not reading the details yet yourself but you keep poking fun at people and accusing them of wrong calculation. Aren't you just being loud for nothing?

I got tired of this, since Sunday evening. Some people have been busy calculating without providing any clear direction. I’m sure I’m not the only one feeling this way—it’s been more than two days. Haba!!!

GeeKudi:
That headline is inaccurate. Find time to read the document and we would safe a lot of space here.

Instead of posting the actual details and freeing the thread from endless back-and-forth, you’ve been busy calculating imaginary numbers all day. You've been stuck on this elementary calculation since the day before yesterday.

Una no dey tire, shuu. Yet we no know if na buy, sell or hold una talk.

emmaodet:
EFFECT OF NAIRA DEVALUTION ON RETURN ON SHARES

The 10 years CAGR of naira/usd from 2013 to 2023 ( 160/usd to 760/usd) = 19%
The 10 years CAGR of naira/usd from 2014 to 2024 ( 180/usd to 1750/usd) = 29%
Which means, if you had converted your 1.6m naira to 1,000 dollars as investment in 2013 and changed back in 2023, you would have gotten 7.6m naira at rate of 19% increase per year or 17.5m naira in 2024 at the rate of 29% per year.
If you had invested the 1,000 dollars in dollar fund yielding 7.5% per annum (stanbic dollar fund rate), then it would have been 15.7m naira from 2013 and 36m naira from 2014.

if you had traded that same 1.6m in a fundamental sound stock from 2014 to 2024 e.g Okomu -
the 10 year CAGR from #35/2014 to #366/2024 = 30% per annum = 22m naira. If we factor in dividends yield of 5% for 10 years Cagr, then total return on investment will be 35% per annum = 32m

Your analysis is inaccurate because it relies on hindsight bias. While there is only one popular way to invest in foreign currency, there are multiple options when it comes to stocks. Selecting OKOMUOIL after the fact is biased. Instead, you should use something like the NSE index for a more balanced comparison.

yMcy56:
*You were somehow right with your calculations going by the $838m to be paid by HUAXIN.
$838.13m for 83.81% X N1700 (exchange rate) = N105.53
* Conditional clause should also be taking into consideration
* Also note that the majority percentage is 83.81 not 83 being used here.
Nsempas too dey like over-analysis
* We await official document release on consideration per share.

I may have to revisit the document to know where all these $1bn to $1.6bn valuation is coming from...

My sweet sister, me tire for all this plenty analysis with incomplete info.

Sunrisepebble:
Here, hope this helps.
It’s a hold for now. If it ever trades 115, then the decision is up to you from there

The Swiss building materials company Holcim has agreed to sell its 83% stake in Lafarge Africa to Huaxin Cement, a Chinese firm, for $1 billion. This deal is expected to close in 2025, subject to regulatory approval.

If the above is correct, why are you using the funds proposed for just 83% to compute the entire 100%? I understand your assumption that the same buyout amount can be projected for the minority, but when dividing, your OS denominator should reflect only 83%, not the full 100% OS.

Sunrisepebble:
She’s right actually. My view was the price being paid per share was 104 and that was based on ($1bn-838mn) using 1680 then divided by the minority OS to give that figure.

I thought she was wrong with her calculation because I was doing the total valuation ($1.1 and $1.6bn) minus 838mn. To workout the total paid to the minority shareholder

The way I should have looked at it was to find out the price per share based on total valuation divided by total OS.
Which gives us the 116 to 169 per share. If 838mn is paid to the minority then we use our 116 and 169 times the minority OS to see what the total paid for the transaction will be

Okay, so the person of unknown gender is correct. Now what? What is the end goal—buy, hold, or sell?

If 1 billion is assumed then 127 naira per share.

GeeKudi:
There is nothing wrong with the attempt to estimate the value the buying entity placed on the shares of the company. Those who hold units of the stock need this to be able to decide if to continue to hold or sell.
If you don't undestand the calculations, you can ask people to explain to you.

Didn't you see the spreadsheet shared by the other guy? His argument is that the other person is wrong because, instead of dividing the total proposed buyout amount by the total shares, they first calculated 17% of the proposed buyout and then divided it by 17% of the total shares. These two calculations are essentially the same, as far as the rules of math are concerned.

The funny thing is, the buyout only covers 83%, so both are actually wrong. If x represents the amount covering 83%, then dividing 100% by 83% of x will give the total amount for 100% OS. If you calculate this at an exchange rate of 1700, you should get roughly 203 naira per share (assuming 1.6 billion naira buyout of 83%). That's all there is to it.

bovali:
Don't know what issue you have with me. It is not like we are spamming the page. You see us genuinely trying to do something that matters and you're telling us to rest. If it bothered you so much you could have skipped the post. its not my fault if maths is hard to understand for you. Will ignore your posts going forward. You're too aggressive.

Lol, you remind me of those noisy teenagers who try to estimate which questions they got right and what their score might be immediately after an exam. What’s the point, when the exam is already over?

Back then, I always felt like slapping their dumb heads.

bovali:
I've put it in numbers to explain better. @sunrise let me know if this clarifies.

I think the issue with his calculation is quite different from what you explained. Assuming x dollars represents 100% buyout of the shares and y is the total number of shares, the result will be the same whether you divide x by y or calculate 17% of x divided by 17% of y, as the 17% cancels out. One of you must be making a mistake since both approaches should lead to the same number. This discrepancy between 180 and 400 is absurd.

Why don’t you all give it a rest and let things play out naturally?"

Sunrisepebble:
The other transactions were separate. I posted initially here that this same Chinese Company had acquired Lafarge Zambia and Lafarge Malawi in previous deals as evidence that what my source had told me was very possible.

There's no other subsidiary involved in this deal

Ok, thanks.

Sunrisepebble:
There could very well be a flaw. I have added the disclaimer twice now that I might be completely wrong

In the document it states "The Ultimate Target Company is listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange" while the other target companies are two SPV's owned by Holcim. What other subsidiary is involved ? I might have missed that

Honestly, I haven’t read the documents and don’t have the time to go through them at the moment. I was just browsing through the posts here. Someone claimed that the major shareholder is leaving because of the difficulties in Nigeria, while someone else countered by stating that the transaction isn’t limited to Nigeria but also includes other African countries.

This made me wonder if the alleged offer price of $1.1 billion is for all the stakes held by the exiting investor across these countries, rather than just Nigeria.

Sunrisepebble:
"Vendor conditionally agreed to sell, and the Purchasers conditionally agreed to acquire, 100% of the issued shares of the Target Companies for an aggregate purchase price of USD 838.13 million" This is based on Holcims 83.81% stake. The total transaction is $1bn from all the articles we have seen in the news. Although I dont think Hoaxing have stated that in the document. Admittedly I only glanced through for key points

I think they are paying below the valuation. If $1.1bn is then paid, it means the final consideration for the minority shareholder (100-83.81%) is $261,87mn (1.1bn-838mn) which is N169 per share, if it is based on $1.6bn then it is a final consideration of $761.87mn(1.6bn-838mn) which translates to N491 per share, which I highly doubt. If the 1bn is for the majority alone then it comes to N124 per share

Like I said yesterday. I no too sabi book so I could very much be in the wrong

I haven’t reviewed all your back-and-forth valuations in detail, but I have a question. If someone claimed that Nigeria isn’t the only subsidiary of Lafarge involved in this acquisition, why does it seem like you’re using the alleged offer price of $1.1 billion to estimate only the majority stakeholders in Nigeria? Shouldn’t you be considering the majority stakes in the other subsidiaries as well? Or does the Nigerian group encompass all those subsidiaries?

Like I said, I haven’t looked at it closely, but it feels like there might be a flaw in your valuation approach.

crownprince2017:
The comparison will have k leg if the variable of measurements are not the same.

In your case the variable are not the same, therefore it's a biased analysis.

What about cement? Check the cost in 2015 and compare it to today's prices.

Streetinvestor2:
That means you ladies you spend 5M on 10 yrs ago.You know spend 50M on them.You be real chairman.

If him dey carry am go radisson blu anchorage for VI before, now na one unknown hotel for Obalende him fit dey carry dey go do the do. Na the levels now.