₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
My brother, let us be open-minded and happy whenever one of us here says he/she has made some good fortune from NGX. We have nothing to lose if it is true. And if the person is faking it or deceiving himself, you have nothing to lose as well even if you believe him/her.
Only a shallow-minded person would be deceiving himself/herself here with money that he/she has not made. After all, our pictures and identities are not disclosed on this platform, so there is nothing to gain in terms of publicity from making false claims here.
Going by the depth of analyses that she does on stocks, I for one would not doubt if @bovali (or any other person) claims he/she has made N500m or N1b from Oando or any other stocks

It could sound like skin-pain; as if we are unhappy, sad, petty, envious or jealous when we describe someone's breakthrough as ''fake like''.
Some people on this forum can make more than N500m from a single deal or stocks on NGX.
We have different investment goals, strategies and different background, experience, opportunities, luck, privileges, capacity etc., hence what may sound or look impossible to one person may be achievable for someone else.
Oando, in particular, could have turned a lot of people into multimillionaires and billionaires overnight, especially those who acquired multi million units when it was selling for N3; N5; N8 etc. Someone who bought like 10m-15m units at that time is already a billionaire or about to become one.
After all, we all are here because we hope and pray to make it in the NGX, even if we have other legitimate sources of income, business etc.
Let us just be happy for them, and it will get to everyone's turn, one by one.

My friend, if you want to be happy, nobody is holding you back. Don’t lecture us on morality. The main issue remains that if 300 million was truly made, they would have shown it alongside the other things they decided to disclose—things no one even asked for.

If you make a questionable claim, I have the right to call it out as false. I never asked you to disclose how much you made, nor did anyone else ask for it.

Stop silencing other people's opinions. Make your own claims and allow others to express their disbelief when faced with what seems to be an obvious inconsistency.

bovali:
Just been looking at my updated portfolio and been smiling since. Please who sells house in Ikoyi? . Oando alone gave me 300m+ which i have sold and put in fixed income. Will be using the interest to follow loco in his Jijo till I find any better fundamentals. Christmas will be good this year.

Stop lying. You know you didn’t make 300 million from Oando. You’re not even a woman. Just like you flaunted the portfolio, you would have shown us proof of this 300-million 'loot.' I challenge you to show us your legs—if they aren’t as hairy as a goat’s.


Maybe you made 40 or 50 million like everyone else, but definitely not 300 million. And as for that other person who gets high on cow dung [IamS...], I’m warning you—mind your own business.

Kereokwu:
Thanks, was looking for strictly successful stock traders

Did Buffett make his money strictly from stock investing? Or are you just shifting goalposts? Or perhaps it’s a case of ignorance?

Let me clarify: Buffett did bonds, stocks, acquired companies through direct deals, and engaged in many other ventures. If your Buffett diversified his strategies, why would you expect traders to focus solely on stocks?

By the way, many of the individuals on that list primarily traded stocks. It’s up to you to do your research.

I remember pushing FCMB's price down with just 300k in 2020 and announcing it here when I was still a Learner—with a capital "L." Everyone was furious, throwing attacks left and right. The only one who defended me back then was Mcy56. She thought I was the quiet type—lol.

robobo:
Hello Chief, Please do you have soft copy of attached which you can oblige?

Let me suggest something even better: why not check out Z-Library? You can either use their web portal or download their app, which works seamlessly. There, you'll find an immense collection of books in various formats like PDF, EPUB, and MOBI. Once you have the books, get a reliable eBook reader from your app store of choice to enjoy them.

Sharing the book directly would infringe on the author’s rights. By the way, I often share valuable resources here for free. For instance, I was the first to introduce the Yochaa app back in 2020, long before it gained popularity. I’ve been using it through all its updates and iterations. Ok nah...

[quote author=Streetinvestor2 post=132924930][/quote]I’ve already made my stance clear in my previous posts—feel free to check them. Someone here attempted to redefine the concept of the present value of future cash flows, claiming it to be the "Buffett way." However, they couldn’t provide any credible references to support their assertions. Even if Buffett used such shortcuts, it would still be incorrect and no different from gambling—it might work or it might not.

I also highlighted the significant devaluation of our naira and mentioned that selling at a loss is sometimes acceptable. It’s better to free up your capital for more productive opportunities than to tie it down unnecessarily.

Plus, I predicted the current surge in revenues that many companies are reporting. It’s not surprising—when the cost of goods rises, so does revenue. I’ve made several other points, though I may not recall all of them now.

So, what exactly is your question?

Streetinvestor2:
I like this line of thought. What do you think will give best results in our time and season as I agree with some of what you said about buffet early yrs.

Pls it should be towards investors option and not trader option. I don't fancy trading option because I have plenty reservations on TA

Technical analysis (TA) works just as well as fundamental analysis (FA). I recommend reading the Market Wizards series to gain more insight. My philosophy is to avoid making assumptions about things—it's better to focus on what you actually know.

What do you truly understand about TA? Are you certain people here are practicing real TA? It's not just about drawing lines on charts; there's much more to it, just as there is with FA.

I respect all methods, as long as they are legal. I don't underestimate other approaches simply because I don't understand or favor them.

Kereokwu:
Good morning all. I am really curious, pls do we have name(s) of successful(top billionaires in the world who are) trader(s) to illustrate. Just like we have Buffett that has proven that value investing with long term view is rewarding. Na learner I be ooo, just curiosity nothing more.

Yes, I have them here. Do you have any other questions?

1. Paul Tudor Jones
Specialty: Macro trading
Notable Achievement: Successfully predicted and profited from the 1987 stock market crash (Black Monday) by using futures to hedge against market downturns.
Net Worth: Estimated at $7 billion (2024).

2. George Soros
Specialty: Global macro trading
Notable Achievement: Made $1 billion in a single day by shorting the British pound in 1992 (known as "Black Wednesday".
Net Worth: Estimated at $8.6 billion after substantial philanthropy.

3. Steven A. Cohen
Specialty: Stock trading, hedge fund management
Notable Achievement: Known for his high-frequency trading and ability to capitalize on short-term market inefficiencies through SAC Capital Advisors.
Net Worth: Estimated at $17 billion (2024).

4. Jim Simons
Specialty: Quantitative trading
Notable Achievement: Founder of Renaissance Technologies, which uses mathematical models to generate extraordinary returns through algorithmic trading. His Medallion Fund is legendary for its consistent high returns.
Net Worth: Estimated at $29 billion (2024).

5. Bruce Kovner
Specialty: Commodities and currency trading
Notable Achievement: Turned $3,000 into $45,000 trading soybean futures and later became one of the most successful traders through his hedge fund, Caxton Associates.
Net Worth: Estimated at $6.6 billion.

6. Richard Dennis
Specialty: Futures trading
Notable Achievement: Co-developed the "Turtle Trading" system and reportedly turned $1,600 into $200 million in about a decade through commodities trading.

7. Carl Icahn (as a hybrid example)
Specialty: Activist trading
Notable Achievement: While he is often considered an investor, Icahn's activist trading style, which involves taking significant positions to influence company policies for quick gains, differentiates him from pure investors like Buffett.
Net Worth: Estimated at $23 billion (2024).

8. David Tepper
Specialty: Distressed debt trading
Notable Achievement: Founder of Appaloosa Management, known for profiting massively during the financial crisis by buying distressed financial stocks.
Net Worth: Estimated at $20 billion (2024).

Don't be deceived: most of Buffett's strategies won't make you extremely wealthy today. While they may still be helpful, these strategies were successful because of the unique opportunities of his era. Buffett now has billions and connections that can generate more wealth even without additional effort.

Buffett was lucky for several reasons, which I will discuss later. He wouldn't have come this far if he were to start today as a young man, regardless of what his proponents might say.

Let me start with the fact that while he had both big losses and big wins, he actually built his wealth by investing other people's money - lots of it. It's not the "from scratch" tale that people often tell.

Warren Buffett has had several notable investment losses throughout his career, which demonstrates that even the most successful investors make mistakes. Here are some significant examples:

Dexter Shoe Company (1993): One of his worst investments - Buffett bought the company for $433 million in Berkshire Hathaway stock. The company later became worthless due to foreign competition, and the Berkshire shares he used to buy it would have been worth billions today.

ConocoPhillips (2008): Buffett bought shares near oil price peaks, later admitting he made a "major mistake" when oil prices collapsed. Berkshire lost several billion dollars on this investment.

US Airways (1989): Buffett invested $358 million in preferred shares. While he eventually made money on this investment, it was very volatile and he later called it a "mistake."

Tesco (2013-2015): Berkshire lost about $444 million on its investment in the British supermarket chain after an accounting scandal.

IBM (2011-2018): While not a total loss, this investment underperformed significantly. Berkshire sold most of its stake at a small gain, but opportunity cost was significant.

Buffett likely wouldn't have achieved the same level of success starting today, for several key reasons:

1. Market Environment Today:

- Sophisticated algorithms and high-frequency trading
- More competition from hedge funds and institutional investors
- Information is instantly available to everyone
- Much harder to find undervalued companies
- Markets are more efficient and regulated

2. Entry Barriers:

- Would need much more capital to start
- Harder to get wealthy people to trust a young investor
- More regulatory requirements for managing others' money
- Need expensive licenses and compliance systems
- Competition from low-cost index funds

3. Different Opportunities:

- The bargains he found in the 60s-80s don't exist anymore
- Can't buy whole companies as cheaply as he did
- Insurance "float" strategy is widely known and copied
- Private equity firms compete for business acquisitions
- Higher valuations across all markets

4. Today's Successful Investors:

- Often focus on technology (which Buffett largely avoided)
- Need quantitative/technical skills
- Require faster decision-making
- Use complex financial instruments
- Need large teams of analysts

Some people have a brain the size of walnuts; that’s why you’re high on cow dung.

ojesymsym:
What did I just read?

Someone is behaving like an extreme zealot: "Follow my Muslim faith, or you’re bound for hell."

emmanuelewumi:
Until we start playing the stock market with patient funds or we have predictable multi streams of income, it will be difficult to enjoy the wealth creating potentials of the stock market

You have started with, "the Yoruba way of life is better than the Igbo way of life, afterall figures like Adenuga, Obasanjo, and co vindicate you". Type of thinking

The way I see it, if not for education, you might have been a die-hard tribalist, someone who could potentially hurt others for being different.

That said, there isn't just one way to gain from the market. Whether as an investor, like Buffett, or as a trader, different approaches work for different people. Someone who bought Oando at 10 may not share your investing philosophy. They may be a trader looking to profit from volatility, rather than holding for 10 years. Maybe their only goal is to meet a specific target, and they see a short-term opportunity in the stock. Similarly, you, as a long-term investor, might analyze the same stock and find multiple issues.

Respecting other people’s views seems challenging for you, but it doesn’t always have to be your way or nothing. That’s not cool.

Lionhearted:
The program sir, can you share..?

Yes, but it's personal code and you probably won't understand it as it lacks comments. In fact, I wrote this in 2020 and never bothered to make any updates since it works. There are 3 scripts in there:

1. The first script takes the PDF from the downloads folder (after downloading from email) and moves it to a folder where I keep the Morgan's daily PDFs.

2. The second script renames the PDF and adds the date based on the date within the PDF.

3. The third script does the main work - it stores the data for each stock in CSV format. So every day, after running these 3 scripts, it will find the CSV belonging to each stock, update it, and save.

Once you have CSV files with daily data, you can call them in other scripts to do whatever analysis you want.

Important notes:
- You'll need packages already installed like matplotlib and PyPDF4, etc.
- You may need to create a text file with the same title as specified in the program for day tracking (to avoid entering the same day more than once)

These are the things I can remember. Or when I have time, I could make it into a standalone executable. Like I said, it works, so I don't bother with improvements. Alternatively, you can build your own from scratch using parts of my code as guidelines.

Fair warning: The code is messy. Don't say I didn't warn you!

Attached as Untitled2.ipynb

Just wait it out, Sugar will do well last last, me sef go get back in later.

Dave2011:
You lack credibility per your shenanigans with Dangsugar!

Exactly, let this be your last post on this! You are clogging this forum with these repeated posts.

You are way too old for this!

Enjoy your weekend if you will!!!

This is wrong, brother. He called it at around 20, along with many other people. I also called it at 25, and after a couple of months, it reached almost 80. Why didn’t you sell and book your profits?

Besides, I’ve noticed that our Ogas avoid negative comments, except when it comes to Oando. They won’t openly discuss poorly performing stocks that they once praised. I know it’s not just MH at the heart of the Oga, but it feels like MH. Now he only has 50,000 units in his possession, while the 'follow-follow' people hold hundreds of thousands of units, suffering excruciating pain under these 'Tpain' policies.

Streetinvestor2:
I thought you did engineering abi IT industry you dey

Everyone is welcome; programming and data analysis skills have now become the new basics in schools and workplaces.

Just as everyone can now operate phones and computers with complex commands, programming is being democratized.

If you have younger children in good schools, these skills are part of their basic curriculum. Soon, everyone will practice 'witchcraft.'

I am officialy a blackhat witch, with my own coven and everything.

Caveat Emptor: Buyers beware!

emmaodet:
Where can I get this chart or reading bro?

I use Morgan’s daily stock updates, where each stock has a column showing its value in Naira for each trading day. You can compile these values over months or years. I typically use Python, but feel free to use Excel or any other method that works best for you.

The closest thing to witchcraft is programming. Do you know that to process over 1,000 PDF files downloaded daily from Morgan's email correspondence will take only 2 minutes tops? I write a program that scans the contents of each file, extracts all the relevant data, and compiles and stores each stock separately.

From there, you can perform any analysis you can imagine and plot any chart you desire.

Like they say here you don’t need all this to make money; just basic math skills from JSS1 are enough. But I love playing with data, and that’s why I do it.

emmaodet:
Where can I get this chart or reading bro?

I use Morgan’s daily stock updates, where each stock has a column showing its value in Naira for each trading day. You can compile these values over months or years. I typically use Python, but feel free to use Excel or any other method that works best for you.

Similarly, Oando surged between 11 and 14.5 with over 14 billion naira exchanging hands. Then @ below 5—even though it spent many years under 5, there wasn’t proportionate money exchanged there compared to the activity following the NAOC acquisition news. The 76 to 83 range shows some good activity as well. The over 8 billion naira invested at 89 and above has remained patient these past few weeks, despite significant drawdowns right after entering. Anyway, let’s keep watching.

Agbalowomeri:
For those of us that like to follow the money, there is a TA indicator pointer even when it is not in the news.
UNUSUAL volume on the monthly! This usually signals the entry of a high net worth individual or an institutional investor.
It is a powerful tool when added to PATIENCE

Let me demonstrate it in OANDO and TRANSCORP (several other examples of parabolic price movements abound) and also use it to postulate on ELLAHLAKES. Are we going to see a parabolic price movement in ELLAHLAKES sometime in 1-2 years?

Disclosures:
1. This is purely an observation and a recommendation for GAMBLERS only of which I am not one

2. I do not own shares in ELLAHLAKES

Very true. I'd also like to add that if Ellahlakes continues its downtrend, it's likely to bounce back around 3. That's where the value is; more people have bought at that level than anywhere else since 2020, with investments totaling over 1.6 billion naira. That's where I would accumulate if I decided to enter, after doing proper due diligence.

chimex38:
I have heard about it
(Debt + Equity).
I haven't used it (yet).

Though I would assume a lender(bank) would use:
Return on Debt(ROD)

Just as Investors-Shareholders usually will use ROE or ROIC as you highlighted.

Lol, Here’s what I know: debt and equity are both forms of capital raising, and companies use them to fund their operations. Both sources of funding come with their own risks and benefits.

From a bank’s perspective, they still consider ROIC because, to them, loans are investments. This is what I understand, but I could be wrong—please correct me if I am.

chimex38:
I agree.
servicing of debt is key.
They must have seen positive pointers in the company.

I just don't usually classify banks as Investors.

Ok, you are right.

chimex38:
Just seeing this.
Debt holders as - Investors
OK. we learn everyday

I bet you've never used ROIC—Return on Invested Capital—or am I the only one familiar with it?

pluto09:
Is it today that oando has been getting loan from lenders.
What did they do with the ones they got before this? Debt upon debt.

Have they ever received 1.3 billion dollars before, yes or no?

chimex38:
I don't think I agree with this.

1)Deducting from u guys argument, Banks are generally assumed to be lenders unless categorically stated as investors and even if so, such banks should also be found in the shareholding structure of companies I think(at least as an Influential shareholders if not Major shareholders)

2) Banks return as company lenders are guaranteed through collateral.
(worst case)

Investors return isn't guaranteed.(worse case)

I believe you know all these. You are just pulling legs

Terminology can be tricky, but defaults are real, even with collateral. A bank won’t lend money if it senses issues with collecting interest payments—are you aware of this?

MARKETJJC:
Exactly! Both are investors, only that debt holder stands ahead of equity holder. And considering the fact this particular lender is of national and international repute and have access to best auditors and all that, needed to do their own evaluation of the business before lending. OANDO is the immediate and remote future

Oga Emma's argument is that the majority shareholders (owning more than 70%) will take advantage of the minority shareholders by recapitalizing the company in their favor. If na only this him talk, i for jejely keep quiet.

The desire to be right always, while natural, often becomes its own trap. It can transform conversations into battles and relationships into competitions. When we're fixated on proving our correctness, we stop listening to understand and instead listen only to counter. This defensiveness paradoxically makes us less likely to learn and grow.

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unite4real:
Will the suspension be lifted without Q1 and Q2 reports?

They no lift again, Oando cast

emmanuelewumi:
If Oando na bank, CBN would have taken over the management of the business

Hahahaha

Raider76:
Ok. So instead of "investors" why not we agree to use "share holders" in my earlier post.

We have equity holders (or shareholders) and debt holders—both are investors, and both carry risks.

Just like shareholders, debt holders or lenders perform due diligence before committing their money. If a company truly had no prospects, as my Oga Emma suggests, no bank would lend to it. It’s that simple.