₦airaland Forum

Raider76:
Ahhh my friend. That was a huge effort on my part. I had to crank my brain so hard to come up with that argument.

Anyway, my understanding is that there are differences between lenders (creditors) and investors. The latter are owners while the former are not. That is why when the business fails the creditors get paid from remnants while the investors lose.

In Nigeria banks are discouraged from being investors in companies they lend to because of conflict of interest, like FBN and Honeywell. So banks were made to jettison some of their companies and divest from others. But now they seem to be coming back through the back door using Holdcos.

Raider76:
I don't assume or label anyone as biased. To do that will mean I have a "confirmation bias". Which means not accepting any view point that doesn't agree with my own. If I am like that then I won't be on NSEMPA. Because being here means I am looking to learn and be informed.

emmanuelewumi:
Banks are higher on the food chain, banks are not investors they are lenders.


Shareholders are the last on the food chain.

And might not have any crumb to feed on.

I think I am done with you on this matter.


As earlier said it is a wonderful stock with a fair value of N150.


Please buy more

Raider76:
You know there were people who made a lot of money in the then NSE in 2006 - 2008 on companies that didn't even have an office. Just from the euphoria and sentiment of the market. Obviously there are those who are here just to make money anyhow, and the quickest is through sentiments. But I have observed that there are also those who want to learn to professionally analyze companies and results. And it is through those later group that future professional investors may emerge. I think we should allow such people to analyze these results and learn from each other. If the sentiment people don't like what they are saying just scroll down. Others maybe learning from them.

emmanuelewumi:
Banks won't mind if the company continues to work for them, banks and insiders are playing a different game compared to the game retail investors


In all these almost N200 billion went to banks as finances costs and about N24 billion went to workers as staff expenses and it has been increasing almost every year referring to what banks and insiders make

Na shareholders never get dividends in about 10 years.

Insiders who are major shareholders holders are getting juicy benefits sha.

Na you go decide if you have the temperament to be a long term holder in that type of scenario

emmanuelewumi:
Because Oando is a religion stock with many faithfuls and worshippers.

And Dangote Sugar always released their results at the appropriate time, did not wait till the stock wss suspended before they released their results and they are not been hyping their stories on social media, so that informed insiders will gradually sell their shares to uninformed retail investors

emmanuelewumi:
Continuing with the improvement in quote.

Working capital improved from negative N817 billion in 2022 to negative N1.63 Trillion in 2023, based on the body language of the auditors it must have improved to over negative N2 Trillion by the end of 2024.

The equity also improved tremendously from negative N197 billion in 2022 to negative N267 billion in 2023, from the body language of the auditor it might improve to over N300 billion by the end of 2024

emmanuelewumi:
It is a wonderful performance, the return on equity also experienced great improvement.


I have a fair value of N150 for the stock

emmanuelewumi:
Another question why was the comprehensive loss of over N200 billion hidden and was in a very small print, compared to the purported profit after tax of about N60 billion

bovali:
Key takeaway: They are not delisting

Current Equity Talks and Debt Management:

• Equity Raising: The company has indicated that it is in active discussions with potential equity investors. This step is part of its broader plan to bridge the funding shortfall that remains after debt refinancing. Management has noted that these equity injections are crucial for covering approximately 46.4% of the funding gap that will not be resolved through debt restructuring alone.
• Debt Refinancing: While refinancing existing debt is a significant part of Oando’s strategy, this alone is expected to address only about 53.6% of the funding gap for the fiscal year ending December 2024. The success and timing of these equity talks are crucial, as delays or failures could significantly impact the company’s financial health and ability to continue as a going concern.

mails4funshi:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42575_OANDO_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2024.pdf

designking:
That is my prayer. I have been buying 1,500 units every time it dips 10%.

The downward trend is only caused by sellof by a major shareholder. The fundamentals remains intact.

Aradel is still a very good share to have.

jonnysessy:
From N800 - N150 is impossible, the worst case Aradel can get is N400. If you are waiting at N150 junction, train will leave you behind. This is no prophesy, after Monday, forget about 10% loss. All that left us will start rushing back and before you know it we are back in the upward trend.

Agbalowomeri:
Okay so I will wait at N155 yunction

nosa2:
I know what you are saying but you are trying to turn an art into a science and it is futile

nosa2:
I know it can be used anywhere I just dont see the efficacy of using it with EPS

nosa2:
Moving average for EPS? ok na

nosa2:
Smooth out unusual fluctuations in EPS by averaging it out?

That is utter BS in the real world.

It is wise to discount unusual income but smoothing it out makes no sense

nosa2:
This doesn't make any sense

designking:
A ₦1,000 Oando has a valuation of 5times Seplat. That will be a behemoth

emmanuelewumi:
How much did you buy Total?

Ginalex:
😁😁

emmanuelewumi:
No big deal, I am not surprised.

Oando will do far better than this when the result comes out tomorrow

Princkez:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42559_TOTALENERGIES_MARKETING_NIGERIA_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

Mpeace:
Not all negatives for mtn. They actually returned to profit in q3.

Mpeace:
Not all negetives for mtn. They actually returned to profit in q3.

Zagee:
That DS journey will be long o. Sugar doesn't take a year to grow sha... Backward integration should be yielding fruit soon, except for security reasons(if existing).

ositadima1:
Description of Biological Assets (Note 17 of 2023 Financial Reports)

Biological assets consist of growing cane, which is expected to be harvested as agricultural produce for sugar production. These assets have been measured at fair value less the cost to sell. As of December 31, 2023, the group has a total of 8,283 hectares of growing cane (2022: 8,092 hectares).

Yield Estimation and Sugar Production Potential

The yield of sugarcane varies significantly based on factors like soil quality, climate, and farming practices. We can make a rough estimate using the following assumptions:

Average yield: Approximately 60-100 tons of sugarcane per hectare per year
Given area: 8,283 hectares
Conservative estimate: 70 tons per hectare

This results in:

8,283 hectares times 70 tons/hectare = 579,810 tons of sugarcane per year

The amount of sugar produced from sugarcane also varies, but on average:

1 ton of sugarcane yields about 100-110 kg of sugar

From our estimated yield:

579,810 tons times 100 kg/ton = 57,981,000 kg or about 58,000 tons of sugar

Future Independence Projection

Achieving full independence in sugar production will take much more than four years. The Dangote Refinery has an installed capacity of 1.44 million tonnes per year, would require about 24 times its current (8,283 hectares) size.

Based on the balance sheet, the value of the biological assets increased from 6.9 billion to 14.4 billion while the land area increased from 8,092 hectares to 8,283 hectares. Acquiring an additional 191 hectares likely cost around 7.5 billion, indicating that acquiring sufficient land to meet the refinery's capacity would require approximately 7 trillion naira (or 336 billion, ok i am getting conflicting numbers and i am sleepy too ).

In conclusion, substantial investment and expansion are needed to achieve the desired production capacity.


Note that I used help of Claude to make this assumptions.

BullBearMkt:
Increase in price of raw material - sugar, labour and freight expenses might have a toll on DangSugar's profitability. The coy's revenue YoY increase of about 56.4%. Alhj should find ways to address these high operational costs. Probably all attentions are on the Dangote Oil refinery now

Raider76:
Alhaji maybe the one with the genuine results. Me I am sceptical of all these "fantastic" results being released by most of these companies and banks. Smells like 2006.

yMcy56:
DANGSUGAR
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42537_DANGOTE_SUGAR_REFINERY_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42538_AXA_MANSARD_INSURANCE_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2024.pdf