seunmsg:
A certain tribe killed almost all the civilian and military leaders of other tribe to impose one of their own as supreme commander. It was so sweet and they love one Nigeria. Six months later, it was payback time and they shouted blue murder. One Nigeria was no longer possible, they wanted out. Up till today, they still want out but no way. We must all continue to enjoy the one Nigeria they killed Tarawa Balewa, Ahmadu Bello, Ladoke Akintola, Ademulegun, Maimaleri, Shodeide etc for.

edudguy:
Do you know history at all? First and foremost, Aguiyi Ironsi did not take part in the Coup. He had no idea there was a coup until he got the wind of it. The five Junior Officers otherwise known as The Five Majors with Ifeajuna as their ring leader also wanted to kill Ironsi as he had killed other officers from other tribefortunately Ironsi got wind of the Coup and botched the Coup, assumed power and decreed a Unitary Constitution. What made the North angry was that after the Coup was botched Ironsi did not Court Martial the Plotters of the Coup instead the Northerners claimed he promoted the Coup Plotters. Ironsi tried to pacify the North by offering the some Northern officers key position in his office and he released some officers who had been thrown in Prison by the Five Majors.. The Northern Officers - humiliated did not care and those released from Prison planned a way to carry out a Counter Coup which was carried out in July 1966.. A very bloody Coup. The Northerners saw the January 15 Coup as an 'Igbo Coup' but in reality Ifeajuna the ring leader of those that carried out the Coup was just an Igbo in paper. Spoke Hausa fluently, dressed like an Hausa when he was not on Uniform had lot of Hausa friends.
Let this be known: Ironsi did not partake in the coup he just got the wind of it as he too would have been killed..
When the Northerners staged a Counter Coup Igbo Officers were killed in hundreds including Ironsi The Northern Officers demanded that Gowon be made Head of State although he was not the most superior officer, a Yoruba Officer - Ogundipe was but the North rejected him and made Gowon Head of State.
After the Coup, Progroms were going on in Major cities in Nigeria, Northerners and even Yorubas were killing the Igbos in large numbers.. Ojukwu, the Military Governor of Eastern Nigeria alerted Gowon. Gowon promised an end to the Progroms but it did not stop it only got worse... Ojukwu, seeing that the safety of the Igbos could not be assured declared the state of Biafra.. The rest is history

One can clearly see that the wounds of days preceding the war and after the war are yet to be healed. That's why when I see tribes insulting each other I kind of feel sorry for them..
To understand the Nigeria 'story' better, read 'There Was A Country' by Chinua Achebe

Pylony:
Ok grand pa, grap your walking stick as i prepare for your funeral. Why not call your self "Father April fools in december" From the Roman empire since you are a Roman god . And start climbing up a Ladder thinking you're ascending up mount everest to indicate the height of your levels. B-)

PBundles:
April fool just got a new date, 13 DECEMBER!

Pylony:
where you see April for december
Seriously Onion weed no good for your brain try another variety.

doctokwus:
EFCC under Magu is doing a damn good job,no wonder Magu is being blackmailed with all types of failed schemes.
As for Shagaya,its not a surprise.
.Even the other woman that is said to be d richest in Africa,i am sure that if she were to be investigated,it will turnout that it's something similar to what Shagaya has done that has won her the lucrative oil deals she used in making her wealth.
It's a sad reality but I don't believe that there is a billionaire in Nigeria since the reign of IBB that has really made his/her money from genuine,painstaking,100% wealth from proceeds of his/her physical biz enterprise.
All av come from connections in govt circles and it's advantages in one form or the other.

PBundles:



Ok I will

As you are aware there are 3 main ways to predict the future FX rate, PPP (Ie Big Max Index) relative eco strength and an econometric model.

The first one is problematic as its hard to get a product that one could compare for parity for many reasons which I don’t want to get into as i would be writing a novel.

The second is a bit easier as it uses growth and foreign investor measurements, but I prefer and used the last method, a simple econometric model, which took the following into consideration:

Int rates (CBN)
GDP actual and projected
Income growth ( I kept at par)

I derived the attached model, which is not written in stone and I admit has its flaws and this is not an exact science (way to many variables), but i don’t think Im that way off. In short if the CBN maintains is current policy towards the banks and Bureau de change and all US FX window transitions the official rate at the bank should be around 262.73 – 304.15 ( see the arrow on the graph). When you transpose that against the black market rate, which in all fairness I think is the more accurate rate to use, I get rate of 469!. At the more conservative end I got 379 (using a 33% rate against the official bank rate). FYI at this moment the market is translating it at approx 50% (official 199 to black market at 300). Im a firm believer that market (in absence of arbitrage factors) determines the price. So between 379 and 469 is the range, mid at 424. I tend to think it will be anywhere above 400.

There is a caveat, OIL. The above is when Oil price is at a constant a.o..

Do i get a passing grade? Its been more than 15 years since grad school, im now used to grading papers, but now anxious like my bussienes school students I teach at night school.

would be nice to book mark this around dec 2016 and see what it is. We usually wager bottles of wines here, do I have a taker

PBundles:
Sign of the times. When you have to tell a Communications graduate that in this day and age that info you communicate on the internet remains virtually forever, Im sure your future husband, kids, and family are proud of you. You sure did make your parents proud. Nice to know that for educating you their sweat and hardwork have paid off as you are now qualified as a flexible back side in bed

People are so attention ho.rny these days, they dont realize how stupid they come across.

Good look on finding a respectable job ms graduate.

PBundles:
Once again is evident what I have been saying, our biggest problem in that country is CORRUPTION!. Its so deeply embedded into our culture that everyone thinks its normal, imagine the lady saying I have to eat, yes thats a fact, but the lack of shame when saying it. Until we rid ourselves of this cancer, we will never prosper, im not cursing, just stating the fact. All the rest is a wash. Hence PMB's push to curb corruption. Only problem is its not transparent, it should include his party members too, dont need to name names WE ALL KNOW WHO THEY ARE!

Mrjo:
are u in any way trying to tell me "begging" is an easy job?

karaka:


I do not agree with you. Anyone can do business. However some personalities are naturally better at it.

Know yourself. That's the number one rule. Work on the areas where you are deficient or outsource these areas. Keep on learning from mistakes.

People limit themselves with that "business is not for everyone" crap.

ChappyChase:
Truth is, Not every one is supposed to be a business owner.. Take it or Leave it!

kidman96:


Don't be a fool. When they say that, they didn't mean poor. They meant old and Fragile and expecting their pension,no matter how small.

You think old age is child's play?

arsenal33:
Oya ....some people will say its because she's I..

obstead200:

let us leave all this sentiments and solidarity statements and address the key issue here:
Is she guilty? (I think so).
Did she evade tax? (it is in every Nigerian's blood to try to evade tax)
Is tax evasion wrong? (hell yes!!!)
Could she have avoided this mess?(yes, if only she had been less pompous and have flouted her "wealth" less blatantly in the face of Nigerians)
Is she gonna pay for it? (most definitely. even if she does not pay in full, she will still lose nothing less than N20m in bribes)

stagger:


Note the bolded. Unless you are a bank, you cannot buy at that rate. That is the rate that banks will buy from the primary dealers (who are banks anyway). In other words, the big banks in Nigeria who will be the nominated primary dealers will sell to other banks at the interbank rate. That is what it is called INTERBANK i.e. between one bank to another.

When your bank now buys at the interbank rate, they will now sell to the end-users at a profit. So if your bank quoted you at N319, they will make a profit of 319 - 260 = N59 to the dollar.

Usually, if you are buying huge amounts of dollars, then you will get it cheaper as per bulk purchase. So if you are buying $100,000, then your bank may offer you at 310 or 305 because the volume will compensate for the discount.

If you are buyng smaller quantities such as $1000, the bank will give you an expensive quote. Visit any forex trading ECN platform to understand it. Even in globalized forex trading, a true ECN platform will show price quotes from several liquidity providers (the equivalent of the primary market dealers) and the prices are never the same.

Those who think the Naira will appreciate under the present circumstances are dreamers. Naira will only appreciate when the country becomes a net exporter as opposed to a net importer.

If we had schools and hospitals which can attract foreigners to pay in USD, it would have helped. If we can export all manner of products as opposed to only crude and small amounts of charcoal, cashew, etc, then the Naira will gain.

Until then, you will not be able to get Naira at below 300. That I can tell you for real.

MKO4ever:

There is a difference between Misunderstanding and Lack of Understanding
Whereas you have a complete misunderstanding of how this forex policy works
Everybody else here on Nairaland seems to completely lack understanding of it
This is what you should know:
Out of the 18 banks, only three were not approved to register as primary dealer
Those three banks are: Skye, Heritage and Enterprise banks
Your definition of INTERBANK is no longer applicable to this forex regime
If you as individual can approach GTBank or the other 14 Primary dealers (banks) to apply for forex
Why on earth will I go to Skye bank who is not a primary dealer for expensive forex
Also note that no bank will make up to N59 margin on a dollar transaction as this is also being regulated by the Apex bank

stagger:


To add to this:

The news commentary had it that at yesterday's trading, banks were just BUYING dollars and were not selling. So there was heavy dollar demand and that is why the interbank rate, which opened at N253 or so, started sliding towards N288 to $1. Bidding was going on and you know how bidding or auction processes go: the price keeps going up so that the highest bidder wins.

Had the CBN not intervened to offer dollars for sale at a rate of N280 to $1, believe you me the US Dollar would have been sold to the entity that was willing to pay N382 to $1 and we would have woken up to see rates at close to N400 to $1.

I tell you, we are yet to see the last of this and I am seriously wondering what the appropriate value of the Naira would be. I don't know if CBN will continue such interventions on a daily basis. Other central banks hardly intervene unless they have to. Bank of Japan has performed 3 interventions in the last 8 years or so.

Something will have to give. It is either the country's economic fundamentals are changed so we can become a net exporter (which means the government has to QUICKLY AND MASSIVELY invest in critical infrastructure like power to boost small scale production and manufacturing for export), or we just watch and allow the Naira to fall to the precipice.

We should look to Venezuela for serious soul-searching. That country produces crude oil like we do, wasted their oil money like we have done and had to devalue their currency. Now inflation is so high, that the people are starving and queuing for food. The situation in Venezuela is now so bad that people are breaking into stores, looting food and provisions and anything they can find to survive. The Venezuelan Army is now guarding retail establishments and escorting food trucks to distribution centres and markets. Critical situation in that country which reminds me of the ESSENCO lines we had in Nigeria in 1984/1985. Guess who was president then?

May we never get to that point ever again.

PassingShot:
Happy days are ahead of us.

With the news, the worst of our economic woes are behind us.

Kudos to the government for floating the Naira rather than devaluing it. A first in the history of Nigeria.

*Modified*

Some ignorant mourning wailers are saying floating the naira is same as devaluing it. Hell NO!

If you devalue the Naira, you fix an official exchange rate to it. E.g N250 to a dollar. With that approach, the black market rate will jump to beyond N400 to a dollar.

But with floating, many traders with high volume of dollars come in and trade dollars based on demand. In this approach, there is no official dollar rate set by the government. The rate is purely determined by how much dollars are demanded and how much dollars are available. This way, the Naira finds its true value.

linearity:


Huge government expenditure actually will lead to the fall of Naira and not the opposite as you have summised, that is economy 101.

When government spends, they flood the economy with more Naira notes and pour more of those paper weights into circulation, simple economy of supply and demand states that, when supply is high, value (aka price) goes down.

The reason is simple, Nigeria is not export oriented and those huge government spending will not drive an equal huge demand for Naira and as such the supply will out pace the demand...not too many people want Naira out there, in fact many people e.g. Airliners who have huge stockpiles of Naira because of the prior artificial scarcity will want to swap out their Naira stock piles now that the government seem to be walking back their prior policies, thereby pumping more dead weight Naira notes into circulation.

Jorussia:
I see the dollar falling to around 170 in next 18months due to increase in FDI and huge government spending. This is the first the country will be adopting a flexible exchange rate,i am optimistic that if well managed, this policy will be of great economic benefit to the nation