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Foreign Affairs / Re: US and EU Officially Lift Nuclear Related Sanctions On Iran by PBundles(m): 5:29pm On Jan 18, 2016 |
I think you are confusing the two terms (gross profit and deficit). We certainly make a gross profit from oil, but our BUDGET is at a deficit. Yes its a fact that certain areas of government run at a loss. The fact that they DONT need to make or show a profit makes them inefficient, hence you will notice that when certain government enterprises are sold off (privatization) , miraculously they all of sudden can show a profit. Of course, because it will be run as a business and so certain factors will be properly managed. Everyone knows the civil service is over staffed, but you cant privatize ever facet. In terms of job security, as strange as this may sound, the risk is less, remember, its not a business. the next year one can simply ask fro a higher budget allocation. This luxury a private business doesnt have,mind you. Chukzyfcb: |
Foreign Affairs / Re: US and EU Officially Lift Nuclear Related Sanctions On Iran by PBundles(m): 4:24pm On Jan 18, 2016 |
You would be surprised how many government owned/operated business dont generate money. The aimmay be a social one and not neccesrily for profit (ie schools of higher learning). On the oil, I dont think IMHO that its the cost to extract that is the problem. I would think that the cost to extract in Nigeria would not be that high, though we are not very good at maintaining things, so our rigs and drilling plants could be more efficient, but lets set that aside for now. The thing is our budget was done on a higher oil price, so in short we are making a gross profit per unit, BUT.........the bottom line is not enough. Chukzyfcb: |
Foreign Affairs / Re: US and EU Officially Lift Nuclear Related Sanctions On Iran by PBundles(m): 4:12pm On Jan 18, 2016 |
My esteemed Bevista, thanks for the compliment, Im humbled. I have seen your works on here too and im impressed with your depth of knowledge. I teach business at a business school in europe and work in IB at an american bank On PPP, this will be easier when we get a McDs in Nigeria, simply using the Big Mac index and factor in some other variables. There is a lot of info on the other two, though the manner its explained is not always clear. Relative eco strength goes by the principle, if you have a growing economy investors will want to BUY your currency in order to do business. I find this hard to use with exotic currencies that have extreme variances. The model I used goes on the notion : interest rate ( what the rate at CBN) minus the actual inflation rate tells me the rate at which the currency is appreciating or deprecating. Hence highlight a common mistake made by consumers when they see high interest rates at banks. If they are giving you say 15% which seems high and the inflation is say 20%,you have actually lost money. The rate of this depreciation is what I used. I factored in GDP, projected of course and income growth I simply took it at par. Oil is the joker here. Of course you can take other variables into consideration, but didnt see them having that much of an effect. I will see if I have a PowerPoint somewhere and if I do i will post it. Truth be told, Im sure (at least i hope) that the CBN has in house folk that can replicate this. I think that the CBNs biggest problem is not analyzing, but the ability to carry out an INDEPENDENT program, void of Politics, thats the problem. Most CBN chiefs are more than capable, no doubt, but when they also have to satisfy the President and his party, it get very very difficult and is a very slippery slope you nor I could walk without falling, hence at times their actions look amateurish. That why all over the world most Government Bank heads are are not allowed to be partisan, only of course in our beloved Nigeria where they say they are not, but are not. Point at hand, free floating the Naira, everyone in their rightful (economic) mind knows the Naira should free float. They dont have the capacity to continually indirectly subsidize it. I get the feeling though they the CBN has no other choice and will tell the president, sir we need either set the fixed rate much higher ( which is simply a postponement of execution) or free float. Bevista: 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: Jimoh Ibrahim Sacks Newswatch MD, DMD On Live TV by PBundles(m): 3:23pm On Jan 18, 2016 |
I find it hard to believe that he wasnt aware of this, but I dont know how he manages his business ventures. Its possible that he designated this to various MDs and is only interested in the end of year financials. He could be getting quarterly financials which 'mask' the fact that workers were not getting paid. |
Foreign Affairs / Re: US and EU Officially Lift Nuclear Related Sanctions On Iran by PBundles(m): 12:14pm On Jan 18, 2016 |
PBundles: Bevista:Ok I will As you are aware there are 3 main ways to predict the future FX rate, PPP (Ie Big Max Index) relative eco strength and an econometric model. The first one is problematic as its hard to get a product that one could compare for parity for many reasons which I don’t want to get into as i would be writing a novel. The second is a bit easier as it uses growth and foreign investor measurements, but I prefer and used the last method, a simple econometric model, which took the following into consideration: Int rates (CBN) GDP actual and projected Income growth ( I kept at par) I derived the attached model, which is not written in stone and I admit has its flaws and this is not an exact science (way to many variables), but i don’t think Im that way off. In short if the CBN maintains is current policy towards the banks and Bureau de change and all US FX window transitions the official rate at the bank should be around 262.73 – 304.15 ( see the arrow on the graph). When you transpose that against the black market rate, which in all fairness I think is the more accurate rate to use, I get rate of 469!. At the more conservative end I got 379 (using a 33% rate against the official bank rate). FYI at this moment the market is translating it at approx 50% (official 199 to black market at 300). Im a firm believer that market (in absence of arbitrage factors) determines the price. So between 379 and 469 is the range, mid at 424. I tend to think it will be anywhere above 400. There is a caveat, OIL. The above is when Oil price is at a constant a.o.. Do i get a passing grade? Its been more than 15 years since grad school, im now used to grading papers, but now anxious like my bussienes school students I teach at night school. would be nice to book mark this around dec 2016 and see what it is. We usually wager bottles of wines here, do I have a taker
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Politics / Re: Jim Nwobodo's Thanksgiving And After-Wedding Party Photos by PBundles(m): 11:09am On Jan 18, 2016 |
So crime DOES PAY I guess and people wonder why the youth have no morals and are willing to do ANYTHING to get money. Well the reason is right in front of us in glaring pictures. |
Foreign Affairs / Re: US and EU Officially Lift Nuclear Related Sanctions On Iran by PBundles(m): 8:44pm On Jan 17, 2016 |
That is the expectation, but I think that the actual amount maybe smaller. You see the Iranians were selling their oil, via trucks within their region, yes even during the sanctions. This is well documented. Thus the actual impact may not be that much. The main issue are the reserves and most importantly the Saudi standpoint. You see the Saudis wanted to destroy the Shale oil production by making it costly. They hoped that buy over supplying and pushing the price down they would drive Shale producers out of business. That has backfired a bit. Also note that US has started to become a net oil exporter for the first time in many years and China growth is slowing so less use. Yes we could see as low as $25. As for the Naira, this will fall further and I see a N/$ at 400-450 at year end. I would explain how I go to that, but will spare you my boring calculations. Seun: |
Foreign Affairs / Re: US and EU Officially Lift Nuclear Related Sanctions On Iran by PBundles(m): 8:43pm On Jan 17, 2016 |
That is the expecttion, but I think that the actual amount maybe smaller. You see the Iranians were selling their oil, via trucks within their region, yes even during the sanctions. This is well documented. Thus the actuam impact may not be that much. The main issue are the reserves and most importantly the Saudi standpoint. You see the Saudis wanted to destroy the Shale oil production but making it costly. The hoped that buy over supplying and pushing the price down they would drive Shale producers out of business. That has backfired a bit. Also note that US has started to become a net oil exporter for the first time in many years and China growth is slowing so less use. Yes we could see as low as $25. As for the Naira, this will fall further and I see a N/$ at 400-450 at year end. I would explain how I go to that, but will spare you my boring calculations. Seun: |
Politics / Re: Senate Summons Emefiele To Explain N305 To 1$ by PBundles(m): 11:35am On Jan 15, 2016 |
Wait ......Let me get this straight. The Senate, the NIGERIAN SENATE is asking why the country is in economic turmoil Thats like the leader of ISIS asking the UN: Why cant our members get visa free travel to all countries, thats discrimination, did we do something wrong, why is the world angry with us, did we do something wrong 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Arms Probe: EFCC Detains German Businessman by PBundles(m): 11:30am On Jan 15, 2016 |
My thoughts exactly ..ON WITH IT NO HESITATION ! tsdarkside: 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Patrick Obahiagbon Speaks About Dasukigate by PBundles(m): 7:53am On Jan 15, 2016 |
The issue is not that the words are not real, they are used out of context. The term dum vivimus vivimus, is latin for while we live let us live, has nothing to do with the text. You cant ELIVATE dum vivimus vivimus. The guy is a clown using words just to be interesting. Remember that the purpose of communication is to ensure that the party you are talking to must be able to comprehend. If the average Nigerian can comprehend it why use the terms and phrases. I once gave an exerpt to an English professor at the institution I teach PT and all she could do was laugh. She has a Phd in Languages and said he was making ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE. zendy: 1 Like |
Politics / Re: Defection To APC Won’t Stop Prosecution Of Corrupt Politicians –presidency by PBundles(m): 5:11pm On Jan 12, 2016 |
Yes thats true. Our last cross over was our boy Ameachi and he also donated to the campaign, so please no more defectors. thanks signed Press sec APC 10 Likes |
Politics / Re: Uwazuruike To Set Up Parallel Government by PBundles(m): 5:19pm On Jan 06, 2016 |
Hope he rememebers that In April 2013, the Supreme Court held that the trial could commence after rejecting contrary submissions by Festus Keyamo. So I say start up the case and let him join his buddy Kanu. I hope they are dealt with seriously. Im from delta state by the way so no, everyone is not supportive of this Nonsense. When ppl are striving to build, we have these clowns looking to divide. To the gallows, with no hesitation. 4 Likes |
Business / Re: Elijah Oyefeso Now A Stock Trader, Earns £30,000 On A Bad Month (pics) by PBundles(m): 1:08pm On Jan 06, 2016 |
Remember THERE IS NOTHING LIKE A FREE LUNCH. When I read he charges ppl to teach them i wondered the following: if you had a secret that was making you the kind of money he claims WHY SHARE IT! If everyone starts to do it, you can no longer profit from it. I personally dont believe having worked over 20 years in banking. yes you have very good traders but none of them are Aladdin. 5 Likes |
Politics / Re: Pardon Soldiers Arrested For Mutiny Against Bokoharam- Ezekwesili Begs Buhari by PBundles(m): 11:49am On Jan 06, 2016 |
They should be pardoned. Their only offense was refusal to fight with NO ARMS. They said they were not well equipped to fight BH who had stronger fire power. You and i know that would have been suicidal. Would you ask any Nigerian team to play REAL Madrid or Barcelona without cleats, come on guys! 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: Arms Probe: EFCC Detains German Businessman by PBundles(m): 11:39am On Jan 06, 2016 |
PBundles: symbianDON: Do all three please , My pleasure. What hurts me deeply and make me feel sad is you and I know, if not for bad leadership Our Nigeria would have been the GREATEST NATION ON THIS PLANET, quote me on this because God knows its true. Which people are the most diverse and drop dead beautiful (men and women). Go North see beauty, Go SW, GO East. Food ooh we get am, weather sunshine we get am. Which county knows how to jolly more than us WHO, NONE! Met a guy a while back he asked where I was from told him Nigeria. he then asked wetin we get because his 3 sisters ONLY follow Nigerians and he from South America has heard the same thing from other people. He even joked and say abi na de joystick . i told him could be but we are just fun loving people. The bad you hear is only part of the story. Which country has the most natural resources and we are not talking only about oil. we are so damn rich. The UN had a report a while back which they said since independence roughly $60 - $ 100 Billion had been stolen from the Nigeria. To give you and idea how much that is, the last banking crisis cost the entire world $500 - 750 billion. So thats almost 20% for the whole world crisis!! even look now at the $2.1 Bln in the arms case. I can tell you that if that money were to go missing here in Europe, people will be shaking, not in Nigeria. Which people are the most industrious NONE. I have traveled all over and I tell you, you will find a Nigerian doing his thing at the top running it. Some examples, in the US do you know which nationality has the most doctors who were not of US origin...you guessed it Nigeria. Sports, football before you count 1,2 you will see a Nigerian playing there running the show. Even American football the stars coming up Nigeria, NBA Nigerian do I need to continue. Movies/show bizz, dont get me started. The last Selma movie, a nigerian had the lead role as MLK. The last Star Wars movie that will top all sales introduced the FIRST black charecter, you guessed it Nigerian. Will smith is in a move right now in which they say may get him an Oscar depicting the life of .....you guessed it a Nigerian doctor who discovered a brain sickness in NFL athletes. Should I continue.... Then go to Music, who put African Music on the map, back then it was Fela to the point they even had a Musical on his life which was shown all over the world sponsored by JZ! Now we have DBanj, PSquare, Wiz. Go anywhere be it Europe or US and call these name, they know them and sing their songs by heart. I hear their songs on the radio daily, no lie. Which African country do ALL the US stars want to perform...you guessed it Nigeria. They gave an interview where they said the wish they could perform in Nigeria all the time because what they make in one night was like for 10 shows in the US. The bank I work in held a press conference last year where they said their focus in the future will be ...you guessed it Nigeria. They say a blessing can also be a curse............I pray though that one day............. 4 Likes |
Politics / Re: Arms Probe: EFCC Detains German Businessman by PBundles(m): 9:13am On Jan 06, 2016 |
Lets stick to facts and not emotions. The High Court never said Mr Kanu was not guilty, as far as Im aware the case has not been judged. He was given bail to report back when the case resumes. I stand to be corrected. On the fact that Buhari has kept him is within his executive order. If im not mistaken Obama has also executive powers, which he uses and has used. A question, you do know that there is a film on line which this fool of a Kanu was soliciting US citizens to help him with arms to fight the Nigerian government right? Even one of the attendees, a woman I believe got up and asked, what exactly are you asking and he said...I need arms and I know you guys can get it for me. You know what, you as a US citizen try and solicit arms in a foreign country on the pretext you want to overthrow the US government because you want to form your own country and watch the hell that you will catch from the CIA and FBI. If you read the EFCC memo, they didnt JUST arrest him. The money he collected when compared to services rendered dont reconcile. They are trying to recover the money and believe me Germany will want NOTHING to do witha criminal. There are countries that show shame when their citizens are wrongly and bring shame to the country.[b] On whether or not Nigeria could do that to a US citizen, dude relax..there are US citizens in Nigerian jails and prisons NOW as we speak, NOTHING WILL HAPPEN. You commit a crime its OYO (On your own). By the way arent there citizens being held in North Korea now. When is Obama going to nuke them LOL. On a side note, its your perogative that you decided to tear your Nigerian passport. I have mine along with my US Passport and Ducth passport. I guess different strokes for different folks. Addicted2Women: 5 Likes |
Politics / Re: Haliru Bello Wheelchair: Eniola Akinkuotu's Perspective by PBundles(m): 5:54pm On Jan 05, 2016 |
And one wonders why the common man has no compassion, its things like this. I remember reading the sentence of Mrs Ibru, my colleague who is a corporate lawyer in EU said she would have done at least 10 years and if it had involved a US company they would have hit her with the patriot act/ML where she would have served another 10-15. allanphash7: 2 Likes |
Politics / Re: Lagos To Install 10,000 CCTV Cameras Across The State by PBundles(m): 12:12pm On Jan 05, 2016 |
Typical Nigerian fashion.................IS THIS WHY WE HAVE HIGH RATE OF CRIME!!!! Why are we so daft! Do we have constant electricity to power this? I have an idea, why not: Revamp the police force, hiring graduates etc Train them properly and give them good uniforms and pay so they are PROUD to serve Instill the knowlegde and up keep of the laws. Just these 3 things will curb crime more than all the CCTVs. Imagine, its like someone saying go buy me 100 bags of garri, I want to make garri for everyone, but what about the soup.....um Im coming, thats for later |
Religion / Re: Desmond Tutu's Daughter Weds Her Lesbian Partner & he Was there (Pics) by PBundles(m): 7:45pm On Jan 04, 2016 |
Sorry but i dont think that accurate. The Knights of Malta were commanded back in the day by the pontiff as an elite army. They were not freemason which is something else. Its celebrated every year or so at the vatican and there is no initiation. I stand to be corrected, but this is how rumors are spread. cocolacec: 2 Likes |
Religion / Re: Desmond Tutu's Daughter Weds Her Lesbian Partner & he Was there (Pics) by PBundles(m): 7:39pm On Jan 04, 2016 |
I can understand the outrage, but to an extent. Funny thing is Nigerians claim to be holier than the pope, the vatican, the holy scriptrures and all put together. You cant go past a a post with someone reciting a bible verse and claiming IJN. Issue I have is with all that Holiness, one would think Nigeria is next door to the Heavenly gates, but from a critical point let me see: our kids are on the verge of starvation the common man is dead broke and many have turned to armed robbery, not because they are bad but because of hunger our students in higher learning have no toilets and the females are forced to sleep with profs to pass ritual killing is a daily occurrence, with the title WARNING GRAPHIC IMAGES Our politheifians steal right under our noses, yet at mama put and ese wu joint we will be forming strong man , only to chill when they show up as e hail them for the few naira (pity full) we cant quell BH in the North and the SE crew has held the country ransom all the while....................... we are busy wondering who is smashing who, like really. For someone who asked the man in the 1st pic on the left is King Willem Alexander of the Netherlands. Id li9ke to know the dignitaries that attended your weddings. One favor please I beg you....LET GOD BE GOD, if the God you serve is as great and mighty as you claim, i dont think he needs your help, advice or suggestion on mankind. LET HIM SORT IT OUT Wish we would place more effort in the few things I mentioned above, if just one. 9 Likes 1 Share |
Crime / Re: Nigerian Killer To Be Deported To Nigera Despite Never Setting Foot Here by PBundles(m): 6:04pm On Jan 04, 2016 |
What you quoted is absolutely SPOT ON! This is not a case of emotion but immigration law. When he was born in Germany, its likely his parents were not legal residents, hence he has no German nationality. There is a misconception that you automatically get citizenship based on where you were born, not true, Many EU countries DO NOT have this in their immigration law (unlike the US). They traveled to the UK and seems they havent acquired residency or citizenship. Note on the former, residency can be revoked in many countries for heinous crimes such as this one. So from a legal standpoint, the UK government has a very strong case. They even have proof, the mom, so its a simple question of obtaining docs from the Nigerian embassy. His case that he has never been there before holds no water. I know of many US citizens who acquired it based on the fact that their mom/dad is a US citizen. His humanitarian case or well being is the responsibility of his government, in this case Nigeria. Does he not have family or was his mom an orphan, so no case. Should have thought of that when he was forming Tupac/Thuglife instead of going to school and getting an education. God knows the trouble his mom must have gone thru to survive as an illegal let alone now. ttmacoy: |
Celebrities / Re: DJ Cuppy & Temi On Otedola’s Yacht (Photos) by PBundles(m): 12:52pm On Dec 22, 2015 |
I dont understand the need to flaunt this? Wasnt there dad caught up in a bribe scandal due to his involvement in oil marketing? Drawing unnecessary attention IMHO. They do realize that the EFCC has a mandate. |
Pets / Re: Just Got Myself A Baby Parrot;need Tips On How To Train It by PBundles(m): 10:45pm On Dec 20, 2015 |
Apologies, I see that you were referring in the past tence and NOT me. Please accept my apologies. I will delete my post. tosyne2much: |
Pets / Re: Just Got Myself A Baby Parrot;need Tips On How To Train It by PBundles(m): 10:43pm On Dec 20, 2015 |
Hey that looks like an African Grey one. They are the smartest and VERY talkative. ollybosieb: |
Pets / Re: Just Got Myself A Baby Parrot;need Tips On How To Train It by PBundles(m): 10:34pm On Dec 20, 2015 |
[quote author=PBundles post=41126056]You would be shocked what they can do. They can sing and imitate anything they hear. The best believe it or not is the African Grey parrot as its very intelligent. You then have the quaker parrot and the parekeet. The last two are hard to teach but the african is the best. this looks like a quaker. My friends own was an African Parrot, cost him a fortune but that bird was really cool. The bird could rap pharses of Tupac becuase my friend was a huge Tupac fan. It was cool to see that bird bust out a rhyme from no where. That are also very loyal and know who their boss is. but as i mentioned THEY CAN TALK NON STOP, which can be annoying at time. |
Fashion / Re: Snail Facials: Ladies, How Far Will You Go To Look Beautiful? by PBundles(m): 6:04pm On Dec 18, 2015 |
Though I agree that this just shows the vanity of man, i dont think snail slime is poisonous. Its mucous. Snail slime has also been used by the Bamiléké people of Cameroon to treat burns. Currently its being used in the cosmetic world. whirlwind7: |
Pets / Re: Just Got Myself A Baby Parrot;need Tips On How To Train It by PBundles(m): 5:55pm On Dec 18, 2015 |
You would be shocked what they can do. They can sing and imitate anything they hear. The best believe it or not is the African Grey parrot as its very intelligent. You then have the quaker parrot and the parekeet. The last two are hard to teach but the african is the best. this looks like a quaker. My friends own was an African Parrot, cost him a fortune but that bird was really cool. The bird could rap pharses of Tupac becuase my friend was a huge Tupac fan. It was cool to see that bird bust out a rhyme from no where. That are also very loyal and know who their boss is. but as i mentioned THEY CAN TALK NON STOP, which can be annoying at time. astrid97: 4 Likes |
Pets / Re: Just Got Myself A Baby Parrot;need Tips On How To Train It by PBundles(m): 5:39pm On Dec 18, 2015 |
You can train it by repeating a phrase a couple of times a day. when you do that always from the same spot at the cage. after some time when you go to that spot it will repeat that phrase. I used to have a friend that taught his to say hey whats up cutie. when he had girls over they thought it was cool. On a different note, they can run you crazy with talking. To keep them quiet the trick is to cover the cage with a cloth. They think its night. but dont do it all the time, as its not good for them. 10 Likes 1 Share |
Celebrities / Re: Freeze Of CoolFm Writes A "Poem" To His Rolex Wrist Watch (Photo) by PBundles(m): 12:28pm On Dec 17, 2015 |
How does the saying go again, petty achievers are thrilled by petty things. So true. |
Properties / Re: The Newly Commissioned Olive Court In Ibadan - Photos by PBundles(m): 12:24pm On Dec 17, 2015 |
Developments like this must be applauded BRAVO on the housing and most importantly job creations, i love this. Dont you love to see the happy faces of my Nigerian people employed doing their thing. The sad part is that this is possible for WHOLE of Nigeria, but we have polithiefians whose prime goal is not to enrich the masses but enrich themselves. 3 Likes |
Crime / Re: ASP Tortures Carpenter To Death In Ogun (photos) by PBundles(m): 10:44am On Dec 17, 2015 |
My thoughts exactly, sir you let them kill your boy. We are talking about the NIGERIAN POLICE here not her Majesty s Secret service. fpeter: |
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