₦airaland Forum

They are not saying the companies will sell in Africa, but manufacture in Africa and then export to the US at lower tariffs.

Youngzedd:
Purchasing power is everything.

Africa isn't yet there. Trump knows that these companies needs the US like oxygen.

I saw this opinion printed in an Indian media. What do you think if it happens?

"Rather than bringing manufacturing back to the US, global firms may just relocate to low-tariff nations, possibly in Africa."

https://thefederal.com/category/business/trump-tariff-impact-india-global-economy-2025-180012

Probably the effect of the allotment of the RI shares. Some maybe selling. If so, there maybe a support at the RI price of N25.

RodgersAkpafu:
First Bank

Sounds like the good (bad?) old days never left.

Agbalowomeri:
Oando and forward looking statements

I wonder how many stocks per year on average, do you get chance to enter based on this entry strategy?

aj8:
@yMcy56
You probably would have guessed that that at their current prices, I would not jump into either. Why? Simply because they are way above the metrics I use for my Common Sense Entry Strategy. For this strategy, my entry is gauged either on estimated EPS, where I buy into at a price way below (EPS x 4), or buy at a price way below 10x estimated dividends. I use whichever is higher of the two metrics. I don’t however doubt their potential to appreciate bearing in mind their valuation based on P/E. The cost of raw rubber is forecast to continue its climb so would expect Okomu to do well into 2025 and probably pay higher dividends if not at least the same total of N36. So my entry for Okomu would be N360 or lower which I doubt if they would ever drop to that …hence my not jumping in but would if it does. Dangote in the same vein N300 is based on dividends. Can safely jump in if it ever drops below that price which again I doubt it would.
So far, the strategy has kept my funds safe and I pray it continues that way.

The aim remains to get into a front row seat on any stock before it starts to climb. Not when the train has departed the station. However should the train return to the station Jump in.

The gurus on this platform will be able to do justice to this. I don’t consider myself one.

These are purely my thoughts. Please pick whatever seems flesh and throw away the bone.

Thank you for the tremendous good you are doing on this platform. You have my respect.

Shouldn't we compare stocks to only their peers in the same industry? Geregu is probably ok if you compare it to Transcorp Power.

Streetinvestor2:
Geregu and gtbank in the same dividend bracket
Apr and transcorp hotel the same range.
Then check share price. Price manipulation is real in this market to be in billionaire club

Something must be coming up. There seems to be heightened media campaign going on.

mikeapollo:
Oga Bagwa, what's the next thing coming up. ?
I know you know a lot about Oando

I guess it's like people calling TCN, and all the Discos, "NEPA". In O&G there is one masquerade behind all the masks anyway

GeneralDae:
Dangote’s deal leans more on the FG committee and NMPDRA than NNPC. In the end, NNPC would only do what the regulator NMPDRA tells them to do.

Talking about Dangote. How will the changes at NNPC affect local refining? It is being said that some of the key people coming in are from Renaissance Group. I believe Aradel is in the group, and it is said that they have a refinery
Will they help local refining against imports?

Mpeace:
No be result go push first bank. Na Ote$ go push first bank. Just wait make he conclude the rights issue.
Na first bank he go use catch Dangote for forbes things. Lol

I appreciate you for referring to me as an elder. I believe that is usually a sign of respect in African societies. However, this is one elder that believes in the notion that one never stops learning. I came up as a physical scientist, where I used lots of graphical correlations to analyze data. This naturally led me to take up trading using TA rather than FA when I ventured into stocks. I did some accounting in my MBA, but it wasn't one of my favorite subjects. Well, recently I suddenly came to have a lot of spare time, so I thought I could learn some FA. That's the reason for my "lazyman's" dumb questions to Oga Emma. I beg those here that command infinite knowledge on everything to be patient with me.

9free:
Bros, easy oohh. Mr Raider na elder here oh.
Maybe old age no dey allow go through the whole annual financial report so his reason for asking.

Oando faithfuls may be interested in this T&T publication I saw. Most of the information is public knowledge already here in Nigeria.

https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/oandos-financial-woes-raise-eyebrows-over-tt-refinery-deal-6.2.2268454.518c40ba90

Thanks so much. I am sure there are a lot of silent majority benefitting from your usual generous information sharing on this subject.

emmanuelewumi:
This is the 5 year summary and trend for Nahco, from the current annual financial report

Thanks. So, every annual report should have a section giving 5 year trends?

emmanuelewumi:
Get the annual report and check out the 5 year summary

Oga Emma. My problem is getting the historical data for the whole market and analyzing it in such a way that one can filter it. Is there a website where such analysis is readily available?

emmanuelewumi:
What is the return on equity, return on invested capital, net margin, gross margin, operating cash flow margin, free cash flow margin, compounded annualized earning growth rate in the last 3 years, what is the forecast earning growth rate for the next 5 years, what percentage of the earnings are converted to free cash flow.

These are many others are needed when looking for quality stocks

They are psychologically covered by NW

Agbalowomeri:
Una still carry Nigeria politics enter Forbes list
What about NC? NE?

Dangote leads Forbes Africa’s richest list (2025) with $23 billion, Otedola, Adenuga, Abdulsamad only Nigerians on the list

https://nairametrics.com/2025/03/29/dangote-leads-forbes-africas-richest-list-2025-with-23-billion-otedola-adenuga-abdulsamad-only-nigerians-on-the-list/

TOE still missing. SE and SS yet to get on the Forbes list

All you said is well. Except the Japanese Yen is a strong convertible currency that is very stable, and Japan has had very low inflation and even negative (-ve) interest rates for decades. So, a Japanese refinery importing crude in US$ and selling in Yen is almost like using the same currency. We Nigerians like to compare ourselves to the strongest countries on earth. But sometimes it is like a chicken saying it will fly like the eagle since it is also a bird. If you don't understand who you are it is easy to get lost.

zendi:
20 Japanese refineries import all their crude oil in the petro-currency, dollars.
But they sell products to the domestic market in the local currency. They must also be exporting, but I assume that all operations are done at profit to the refineries..

Nigeria's private refineries should pay for every drop of our crude oil in the petro currency, dollars.
To do otherwise would deplete our external reserve and subsidize the export trade of private entities.
It will also be subsidizing, unfortunately, both land and sea smuggling of refined petroleum products.

Nigerian refineries will operate even more profitably than their Japanese counterparts because "importing" crude oil from home will eliminate freight (shipping) and Maritime insurance costs from the landing cost, than would be the case if importing crude from abroad.
The same for Petroleum marketers if importing products from abroad.

Summary, private refineries should procure crude oil from wherever found, or pay for our own at the international price and currency, then sell products to domestic offtakers at whatever conversion rate that makes them profit, but not in foreign currency.

Competition should checkmate monopoly and excessive price hiking.

I'm just an ordinary citizen observing the Oligarch and the Cabal at each other's throats for control of the nation's petrolieum fortunes.

Alhaji has really gone global. The import cabals and NNPC will be unhappy to read stories like this:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-jet-fuel-imports-surge-nigerias-dangote-refinery-pushes-barrels-west-2025-03-24/

No mention of dividend

sky2891:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43388_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_-_NOTICE_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_MARCH_2025.pdf

It is possible that banks who have increased OS might use time weighted average OS to compute their EPS, just like what UCAP did.

chimex38:
For Banking stocks worst case scenario basis for F. dividend using Access as a case study.

Worst case
Since their new OS has increased by about 50%, it's ideal their Final dividend
"Just might" be discounted by same amount depending on what each investors expect as the payout amount assuming the old OS.

Assuming a payout of ₦3 (on old OS).
Access just might payout ₦3/1.5=> ₦2

Assuming a payout of ₦5(old Os)
Access just might Pay ₦3.3

Assuming a payout of ₦2(old Os)
Access just might pay ₦1.3

Remember "just might"..
Pure speculative thoughts.

Anything less, na OYO.

Not when the cause of the low had nothing to do with company fundamentals.

Agbalowomeri:
Lower low begat lower low

People should start watching the market closely. Some stocks are close to their bottom. Some banks are below their 200 dma, or almost there. Good timing will help greatly.

What will be the likely effect on oil stocks of
companies with onshore assets?

SonofElElyonRet:
Fubara, deputy governor, House of assembly suspended for 6 months.. retired military personnel appointed military administrator.. Wike remains FCT minister and would in all likelihood operate as the unofficial military administrator

A quarrel in the SW family being settled in house.

Youngzedd:
The Chairman of Honeywell Group, Chief Oba Otudeko, a former Managing Director of First Bank, Olabisi Onasanya and others are discussing “settlement” in an alleged N12.3 billion fraud case under the supervision of the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation.


https://nairametrics.com/2025/03/17/otudeko-others-discuss-settlement-with-efcc-under-agf-supervision-over-alleged-n12-3bn-fraud/


Otedollar

This Alhaji refinery versus NNPCL and independent marketers war get as ebi. Just saw an MRS station with a line of almost 100 cars in the hot sun. But just few 100 meters down the road are 3 stations belonging to independent marketers with only 1 or 2 cars at each of the statioms. In one of the stations there were two fuel trucks parked and waiting to offload.

Confusion as Yochaa reports prices for FBNH, FirstHoldCo and FIRSTHOLDCO.

Yeah. Thankfully there is always a way out.

SonofElElyonRet:
No worry about God's own if you won't be "a cheerful giver" as stated in the holy writ

That's double taxation

jonnysessy:
Don't forget to pay your 10% tithe. You have no choice but must pay Government 10% tax from source 😜