₦airaland Forum

FBIBOT:
I don't see why the police should make this public.... Do your job.... Make arrests and come Public

The police shouldn't make an intelligence based threat public. Are you joking or what. What kind of thinking is this.

babajero:
you are just clearly supporting criminality.

They want everyone to be like them, dark minded, cunning and sinister. But see where it has led Nigeria.

I have never trusted Nigerians to make the right decisions (in number). They cannot just do it.

In this country the dregs, not the cream will always rise to the top. The worst will always succeed to public service.

The fact is that people like Mr. Obi are not the type of leaders that this country deserves. He will simply not have qualitative citizens to serve.

MemphitzDgreat1:
People wey talk say Jonathan's N97 per litre of fuel is wicked while Tinubu's N1500 is reform na im you wan listen to?

Hahahahaha....kai

God1000:
Donald trump will not be happy with this information, somebody might get sacked for this

It is called war for a reason.
You fight and get fought, you destroy and get destroyed, you kill and get killed.

That is why it is not an option.

ceejay80s:
And u want me to go and buy dangote share,
Person wey fit sleep and won't wake took and every business dies,
I have seen such,
All the shares I bought in 2005,
I no see shishi till today

You should have invested in foreign markets then. Some stocks will have doubled or tripled since then and still held value unlike Nigerian sticks that have depreciated in real terms after currency devaluation.

That is why the Dangote thing is a huge risk. The politics around subsidies going forward is not clear. The next government may give in and reintroduce subsidies leaving the refinery depending on foreign markets and the competition in the international midstream is fierce.

Franktom247:
How else do you expect him to feed no way for Nollywood again

Even if na gutter cleaning contract make dem give am

Why 'no way for Hollywood', what did he do wrong....did he build the kind of flimsy bridge he did for his constituents with his industry..... or did he just burn the bridges.

lordm:
Please leave him o,
He is looking how to get back to the national treasure

But this is an educated man with skills, a performing artist who is now privileged by political fame to really put his foot down in the movie industry out of the abundance of experiences and numerous storylines in public service to really make hay.

If you are a professional it remains in your blood for life, politics not withstanding. He is still relatively young and can simply go back to play his trade while waiting for the dinosaurs to go extinct.....except that perhaps greed will not permit him having tasted the forbidden fruit of government debauchery.

Can you imagine Arnold going to kneel down before Trump to somehow find a way to upend Gavin and give him another shot at the California State House.....unimaginable. How do you even start to understand that.

Very shameful of the actor.

PS: If when in public office he had championed issues about the industry and lobbied for massive investment in it for instance, he will not find public office hard to let go and wil have received a heros welcome back 'home'. We are so, so ignorant in this country. After public office. Arnie went back to acting and remains a Hollywood leading man.

It is easy to start violence, to start a war. It is much, much, much more difficult to put the genie back in the bottle.

Price of energy goes up in the US, it will be headline news for days with government people running around with explanations and debates all over the place, same with Europe as it affects their economy..

Here it has been a steady rise. One price increase after another...yet.
Nothing from government. Not a word of assurance, not a word of calm, not a word of empathy, no understanding, not a word of direction... like the bridge of the ship is void of leadership....as if they just don't care.
About the very item, commodity that affects everything from their precious budgets to the ability of the the local police station to put patrol vehicles on the road....just bewildering.

But here we are..... The preeminent refiner is talking about rescuing Europe and thanking the President for that capability and perhaps diplomacy....., the person of which is incidentally in Europe.

If those countries had leaders and governments that didn't care, where will.you sell your jet fuel. Will they even give you a trade license.....?

Hamachi:
My concern with this Dangote Refinery IPO is not whether the refinery is a great project. It clearly is. My concern is: at ₦525 per share, what exactly am I buying, and at what valuation?

We should be careful not to confuse “one of Africa’s biggest refineries” with “one of Africa’s best investments.” Those are two different things.

And there is one question I think every investor should be asking:

Why is only about 10% being offered to the public?

If the company has roughly 120.13 billion existing shares and is offering only 4.1 billion new shares, the public offer is a relatively small slice of the overall equity. That means the controlling shareholders will continue to have overwhelming ownership and control.

That isn't automatically bad. Many companies maintain concentrated ownership. But as a minority shareholder, you need to understand what that means for you.

You are essentially being invited to put fresh money into a gigantic business while the existing owners retain the dominant position. So don't just ask:

“How big is Dangote Refinery?”

Ask:

- What is the post-IPO valuation at ₦525?
- What are the company's actual profits and free cash flows, not just revenue?
- How much debt is sitting on the business?
- What is the actual capacity utilisation?
- How much does it cost to produce each barrel?
- How exposed is the business to FX and crude-supply risks?
- How much of the ₦2.15 trillion will actually strengthen the company?
- What percentage of future profits will realistically come back to shareholders as dividends?
- And most importantly, is ₦525 cheap, fair or expensive relative to those earnings?

The refinery can be an exceptional Nigerian industrial achievement and the IPO can still be overpriced.

That's the part investors need to separate.

Also, the proposed expansion from 700,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd sounds exciting, but future capacity is not today's earnings. Expansion requires capital, execution and time. Investors shouldn't pay today's money based entirely on tomorrow's projections.

So before rushing into the IPO because of the Dangote name, I would wait for the full prospectus and financial statements and calculate the valuation properly.

A great company can be a bad investment at the wrong price.

The real question isn't “Will Dangote Refinery succeed?”

It is: “At ₦525, is the portion of Dangote Refinery being offered to me worth the price I'm being asked to pay?”

That's the question investors should answer before subscribing.

Thanks for the detail.
Let us see where it is headed first.
There are too many questions unresolved.

In addition to what you have pointed out it is important to note the political angle. The economy has to improve substantially so that the economic pressures on the public and calls for a subsidy reintroduction does not affect its operations.

Dangote is smart to lure people into broadening ownership so as to mitigate future political interference. But I am not too sure at the moment.

cyril10:
All i know is that investors will reap bountifully at the long run. Go for it if you can.

There is absolutely no guarantee about that. I will rather wait for the security to gain altitude so that the direction of travel is clear. Let it hit the market first to know the true value.

I also think an order should be made for people to stop inhabiting structures under construction. It is one of the most dangerous things a person can do because the warning signs are not always as visible and audible as with completed structures.

Signs such as a door that no longer closes or opens easily or swings strangely on its own may indicate movement too imperceptible to the eye.

Cracks are also more pronounced in finishes such as gypsum plaster, paint, masonry tiles and glass.

Observe these subtle signs and be curious. See a crack and mark its beginning and end with a pen. Eyeball it regularly. If it shoots past the pen mark start to pack your things.

Flangelo12:
If you're asking whether people who had Jlno work yesterday but but that now have jobs created by the productivity of the refinery or the new logistical and byproducts opportunities that it creates in addition to saving us the demand for forex, increasing forex inflows, and yet you prefer to dismiss it, you are not speaking from a place of sincerity but cynicism.

How many people are employed by Dangote compared to how many people will be paying terribly high price for energy....that is transport and power in the coming days and weeks.

Can Dangote industries compensate economically for the potential job losses and revenue losses to government.

You still.maintain tunnel vision.
The problem is not Dangote,.the problem is with the manager of the economy who should anticipate all these and if they dis not have plans pre subsidy removal, should be doing so now.

What is the war escalates and oil hits 110,.120,.130...you think it will not affect everyone including Dangote and the government itself, you think it will not affect security and infrastructure and everything on government's plate...

nairalanda1:
We have been saying this thing for several years that Nigerians are poor.

But when it is time to talk about how to end poverty, all the ideas we get from.both goverment and opposition is more borrowing for welfare programmes.

Nothing about improving domestic productivity.

The poverty discussion in Nigeria is a prop for political points scoring.

Reno, seeing as he is now in goverment, is excusing nonsense

They have no plans for economic recovery the way you and I think, the way it concerns improved atmosphere for businesses, the way enterprises mushroom and the consequential rise in employment and compensations...

It is a tax and spend government anchored on welfarism which is typical of feudal setups. Big government, small private sector and the inevitable political patronage that comes from crumbs from the master:s table to oil the loyalty machine.

8 years of this government will pass and we will be saying the same thing as from the beginning till the bitter end. Bookmark this.

If you want to revive an economy there are deliberate steps to take. If you want to reform an economy there are deliberate steps to take. The only reforms made by government so far have concerned giving it more revenue. That is all. This does not translate to economic success as much as taking a bank loan does not translate to business success.

Flangelo12:
Unless you choose to ignore fact:

The Dangote refinery has driven a major surge in Nigeria's petroleum product exports, averaging 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) in international exports by the second quarter of 2026. [1] (https://www.facebook.com/AriseTVNews/posts/dangote-refinery-drives-nigerias-fuel-exports-to-350000-barrels-daily-us-reportt/1658338062964726/), [2] (https://www.instagram.com/p/DacdPLAlSnQ/)Key Export HighlightsOverall Shipments: Nigeria's total seaborne petroleum product shipments (including exports and domestic coastal shipping) reached an average of 561,000 bpd in Q2 2026, up from just 79,000 bpd in 2023. [1] (https://dangote.com/us-hails-dangote-refinery-as-nigerias-petroleum-exports-surge-seven-times/)Exports to Europe: Shipments to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in Q2 2026, which included a notable shipment of approximately 466,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe in June alone. [1] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68004), [2] (https://www.facebook.com/thenationnigeria/posts/dangote-refinery-makes-history-surpasses-us-supply-in-jet-fuel-n757bn-exports-to/122273896982255308/)African Markets: Regional exports to other African countries (such as Ghana, Cameroon, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire, and Tanzania) reached nearly 120,000 bpd in Q2 2026. [1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dangote_refinery), [2] (https://www.facebook.com/Nairametrics/posts/nairametrics-dangote-refinery-exports-456000-tonnes-of-fuel-to-african-markets/1389691716536118/), [3] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68004)

And.....
Of what effect does that have on a person paying 20 percent more for transportation to work today, today, today, this morning.

Once more the discord between statistics and reality. Dangote is not in charge of this economy, the government is.

And it is the responsibility of government to ensure the economy works for all. If Dangote could do it alone. He will not be doing an IPO.

And he is doing an IPO because he wants security: cash and sentiment because he knows the risks of energy affordability and politics. He knows the high cost of energy is fuelling (pun intended) inflation and his business can come under political threat if the people yield.

Flangelo12:
You mean you would sell your wares at government controlled prices even if you can get times 4 in the international market?

And then do what with the money....share it...
Three and a half years of sharing more money than ever before (so they say), what is the grand effect on the economy....

What has their 'investments' yielded.so far....nothing.

Look, I am pro subsidy removal only because of the criminality involved and the institutional failures associates with it. Accountability failures that haven't been addressed in government's alternative policy of collection and sharing, aka 'tax and spend'.

So whether it was former/private/citizen waste or present/government waste of resources the effects are similar. Waste is waste.

The very fact that investments have not been made back into the place from where the money was taken out speaks volumes. It is the people's money government is taking and deciding it can invest/spend it better.

You cannot take a loan from bank claiming you can make money for both yourself and the bank and then turn around to tell the back to adjust to the reality of a smaller balance sheet and manage the losses. The bank expects to be better off giving you that money.

Nigerians expect to be better off allowing you take their subsidy. It is their livelihoods you are playing games with.

Now the conundrum facing the country is how to make a one trillion dollar economy out of the ingredients of escalating poverty.

How to attract foreign investment when the purchasing power of the average Nigerian is declining due to rampaging inflation with enough fuel (pun intended) to keep inflation airborne.

The middle class decimated over the years is now completely buried. Who are the investors going to serve when it is widely known that foreign investment overwhelmingly targets the middle class.

No one will come here to make 'pure water'.or invest in 'akara' business. They come to make goods and offer services the middle class consume.

BMW's first overseas facility was recently opened in India to assemble the iconic 7 series.

That is a statement of real progress. That there is a critical mass of people in that country and the sub region that can afford automobiles worth north of a hundred thousand dollars a pop.

A statement more credible than any statistic or rhetoric coming out of any government. Here reverse is that case, businesses are either walking away or 'adapting' (which in Nigeria lingo means cutting corners) to remain afloat.

If the government is not interested in finding ways to bringing down the cost of energy, bringing to single digits the rate of inflation and spurring local businesses and enterprises through direct PPP investments and rigorous privatisation of government enterprises, then poverty rates will continue to climb and the trillion dollar economy will remain a mirage.

It is the people that make the economy. GDP is a measure of productivity. Productivity is the people doing and making things.

They say it is because of the war in the Middle East as if this is the first war to have been fought in that region, a place where wars come as regularly as seasonal weather.

And the fact that some of these wars are because the combatants want cheap.or cheaper oil fie their economies, ours don't care about the economic effect.

We who have the oil for industrialization are too lazy to exploit it, to corrupt to benefit from it....all before it becomes as obsolete commodity as coal became, that is in decades to come.

FreeStuffsNG:
Smh.

That is being humble and many arrogant poor unsuccessful people don't get it.

He went out of line and realized he was wrong and now begging for forgiveness. That is courage and he earns my admiration for that courage to say " I am wrong and I say sorry".

But when is he going to kneel down before the electorate that should matter in his quest to get back in the saddle.

When is he going to beg you and me that he is supposed to serve to mark his examination paper.

But he can't because you and me don't matter to him and we like it that way because our mindset is subjugated, rendered powerless, our wills and desires are switched off to prove our 'loyalty'.

So if he eventually gets a reprieve from the 'Oba' will you and I still go and stand in the ain and rain to vote him....kai,. democracy....we really miss Abami Eda...he will have waxed so many Grammy winners with the state of our democracy if he was still alive.

Factcheck0001:
never try to outshine the master

Na so...master indeed.
Just call it what it is....Dictator.

runningriot:
That is when you contiously and intentionally allow yourself to be stupendously inept. Apparently, if this young man was working for the improvement of the livelihood of his people he would have gotten their support to muscle power from his oppressor but he chooses to be advently clueless... Now look at the result!

Well, that is how it should work.
But do the people themselves believe they can be governed impactfuly....doubt it.

A people that don't even know what an economic recovery should look like...

A people that sit by and watch their lives degrade year after year yet cannot make the linkages between their choices and their experiences....just give them a strong man or a money man to think for them and they follow loyally.

Feudal rule in practice.

If this happened in the US and involved POTUS Trump, some will write an epistle.

Just bewildering. Democracy, no. Monarchy, yes. All hail Gbaja the King of Surulere.

Oh, another price hike thread.....hahahaha.
Make I settle down read through the 'Lamentations of Brother Jeremiah'.....hahahaha.

Once again, 'I told you so'....enjoy.
The internet is a library. Recall and study.

Chai...I just dey one corner dey laugh.
Shalaye no go end for dis matter.
Anyway, I told you all....nothing more to add. The internet is a library. Recall and study.

The black man is feudal in nature, that's why.
They respect the king more than the counsel. That is why the people remain like that.

I am yet to see the politician I respect. There is absolutely none. To me they are at the very bottom rung of society.

If you tell me you want to join politics, I consider your life to be over, period.

If Arsenal didn't buy Konsa at the closing stages the story will have been a lot different.

The guy is probably taking a cold shower with a very dry martini. He will wake up tomorrow with aches in a thousand places.

This Brobbey is a freaking rhino...gosh....

Well Chelsea fans you know the Premiership edict.

Lose five matches and you cannot win the title.
This is September and if this stands that will make it two out of five....hmmm..

What are they campaigning about.

'...Manage for another four years, we are busy building highways with your money. But here, take a satchel of rice to ease your pains instead and vote us back...'

Is that not all, what else is there about the campaign that concens the people.

The Premiership.

The most competitive league in the world.
Have an off day and donate points to your opponent, simple.

Half a billion dollars worth of talent, on show doesn't faze anyone in this league. You have to outperform to win.

Well she is in the land of the brave and the free. None of my business.

Well in a certain, unfortunate way he is correct.
Why will you agree to procreate and bring to this world the kind of men that say and do things like that. Is it not better to be sterile.