₦airaland Forum

Try to use credible news. Hilton didnt exit Kenya. They closed shop at CBD and open a new branch.

Our budget for next year is very tame. There is just a billion dollar increase when we expect revenues to increase by almost 3 billion.

We expect ordinary revenues to increase from this year 2.4 to 2.9 trillion Kshs.

We are cutting borrow to 6 billion dollars annually in any economy at 120b dollars then. Of that 6 billion dollars - we will borrow 2 billion externally - and rest internally

I think budget deficit will be less than 5% - and we shall be in course to balance the budget soon.

AfriqueDuZuid:
You saying Ghana is out of the woods is far from the truth.

Kenya new tax regime, may lead to exodus of companies changing base if they haven't started already.

Are you buying forex from minning companies or buying their gold with cedis. Unless you're then re-exporting the gold to get dollars.

vaxx:
nah, there is suspension on any external debt payment for now, that increased the liquidity anyway but it wasn't enough. the actual reason is the continue buying of forex from mining and oil sector , the increased of forex from remintance and couple with the staff level agreement with the IMF . When we reached the board level, the economy will have fully recovered.

Their forex reserves were down to 6B dollars in sept - and if they used - we shall soon find out. Definitely them refusing to pay almost all external debts - means they have run out of dollars

GeneralDae2:
Some say Ghana used her little reserves to shore up the cedis and this is why they had to announce a halt to their external debt servicing. However, I can’t find any official report to this claim, does this have some atom of truth?

There is hope for Nigeria. Is that VI? I am suprised traffic lights are on.

68816419:
Christmas road trip in Lagos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0AfLRceC50

Bankrupt Ghanian bankrupt of ideas.
Kenya debt service this year will be 1.3 trillion - our revenues including AIA projected at 2.6 trillion.
THAT is 50%
Kshs is at 123 - this is actually where KSHS should have been - and we are happy.
Central Bank is not defending KSH
This was our medium-term target - IMF wanted devaluation done ASAP but this crisis has done it.

IMF and Kenya technical analysis conclusion was that KSHs was overvalued by 20% - something like 127 was the target - Kenya gov refused to devalue saying the market will decide - IMF disagreed and categorized KSHs as managed currency

Kenya gov is happy with depreciation - this crisis has got us where we wanted.

Mind your bankrupty - and see you in 2040.

I am going to enjoy the shiet show.

Next country to watch in Africa - Nigeria - but they have got their oil game ON.

You're well done. We are moving to watching Nigeria.

Just30:
another bunch of nonsense that does not deal with Kenya reserves decline to 7 billion
Debt service taking 70% of revenue
Kenya shilling trading at 127kshs
2 items taking 140% of revenue
Kenya govt swapping it debt and domestic debt getting under subscribed leaving your govt in a desperate situation unable to finance itself.

You're wasting your time hoping kenya will join Ghana . Try Nigeria.
Kenya is Africa most resilient economy that has braced through all sorts of crisis including 1990 sanctions.
That is why we have one longest democracy and you see Nairobi - and you cant believe it.

Kenya is not your typical SUB SAHARA economy that depends on nonsense like minerals

Kenya revenues in 5 months - up 10%
Last year it improved from 1.69 trillion to 2.03 trillion.

This year the target is whoping 2.46 trillion.

That fool is almost 24 B dollars.

Give up. Next year we hit 30B dollars - and 5yrs we would be at 40-60B dollars - South Africa is at 107B dollars - from 80b in 2020.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-18/ruto-vows-big-revenue-boost-budget-cuts-after-kenya-downgrade#:~:text=Ruto%20targets%20to%20nearly%20triple,the%20US%2DAfrica%20Leaders%20Summit.

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/kra-five-month-revenue-collection-up-10pc-4058408
The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) has recorded a 10.2 percent growth in revenue collection for the first five months of the current financial year, driven by new tax measures and positive economic recovery.

National Treasury data shows KRA netted Sh758.58 billion in tax revenue for the five months to November, an increase from the Sh688.08 billion tax revenue it collected in the same period last year.

The Treasury introduced a raft of new tax measures in July through the Finance Act, 2022 including an increment of excise duty on products such as fruit juices, cosmetics, beer, wines, spirits, and cigarettes

But with just a month to cross the first half of the fiscal year, however, KRA still lags in its race to collect the National Treasury target of Sh2.46 trillion tax revenues exclusive of grants by the end of June.

KRA collected a record Sh2.031 trillion in revenues for the financial year 2021/22 up from the Sh1.669 trillion it collected in the previous year.

Just30:
Kenya is in dire need as a growing import bill and debt servicing cost has depleted the Kenyan reserves.... Even Kenyans don't want their Govt bonds and treasure bills anymore ...
Hugely under subscribed by 40% consistently.

Kenya debt now 9.7 trillion kshs and GDP 106 billion dollars with the shillings depreciating fast.

How did you get here. I told you 3yrs ago - you were going to end up bankrupt.

Debt interest alone is now going to consume 100% of revenue.

That is minus principal. Your are going to spend 20yrs to fix this - 15yrs just paying interest. Default is NOT A JOKE.

Last time Ghana got debt forgiven together Nigeria - now everyone think you need to go through proper lesson of prudent management of money

My next prediction - because it appears Ghana gov is equally mentally deranged like you - we are going to see Sri Lanka like meltdown in Q1

Just make sure you go to your village and farm. You'll need your own food. The financial system will go haywire

Just30:
Lunatic

No one has defaulted except Kenya and that is why your country is facing depression for the next 30 years and looking for countries to join in your misery.

By the time you guys will be able to reduce your 2 items consuming 140% of revenue, most of you Kenyans would have become like Turkanas

Even after years of Kenya being offered debt relief by China, the WB and Ghana even negotiating debt relief from your Eurobond holders on your behalf, you guys still managed to default on 4 debts and ran to the IMF on stretchers.

I see you"re now willing to stand you ground and not allow the boer to run all over. Yes nominal gdp is gold standard. PPP is still a concept.

Obaaderemi2:

I don't think I'm interested in these stupid cyclical arguments anymore. I said GDP nominal is more used than PPP. This is something every sane person knows.

Mad cow in his element. Default is big deal and your economy dead for 20yrs. Keep on living in lalaland but it will soon be clear.

You're still stuck in domestic debt which have come unstuck as local investors have refused to play - and have yet to process today news - where you also defaulted on almost all external debt.

You joined Ethiopia, Zambia and Chad.

Anytime you hear debt restructuring - then you've defaulted.

Just30:
I don't have to waste more words on you, this still remains a perfect write up for your ain't size brain.

Kenya that has defaulted on 4 debt already and is pushing the repayment of others as carry forward meet it obligation? Let me laugh
Youve not been meeting your obligations for 4 years now.

This publication is for current holdout creditors still thinking of being holdout creditors by the new date of 30 December.
It simply gives them 2 options to either trigger their legal clauses for govt to trigger it legal freeze clause so that the govt can move on with it CAC with the majority in agreement while the holdouts go through a lengthy court process or run for further negotiation.

If comprehension is too hard for you... You can read from the attached comment, it makes it simpler

Only if you secede management - in some special agreement.
KQ was profitable when KLM were 40% shareholder because they held 4 key position - finance, commercial, operation and aviation.
Otherwise as a majority ; you can overrule minority.

So problem here is we are NOT selling a profitable safaricom - we are selling loss makin company - that require capital and management to take off.

So Delta will only accept 49% but will insist on picking CEO and maybe top 3 directors.

vankelvin:
[b]
So far as it's profitable even if it's 20% they will pump money into it.

Maybe it's not mental but poor education. I see Vax has the same problem.

Let try English definition of terms.

Bankruptcy is a legal process through which people or other entities who cannot repay debts to creditors may seek relief from some or all of their debts. In most jurisdictions, bankruptcy is imposed by a court order, often initiated by the debtor.

Today Ghana declared to the world that it is BANKRUPT.

Kenya continues to meet it's debt obligation. Nigeria despite having exceeded 100% revenue to service ratio continues to meet it's obligation by kicking the can down.

Just30:
Kenya govt is bankrupt with just w items consuming 140% of revenue.. Ghana govt is not

You can't be running lose making businesses and expect your govt who has defaulted so many times already not to be bankrupt... That should be your worry for now and not a country with so much money to finance big budget projects

Who will accept minority shareholding - yet pump their money to turn it around. It not that easy. If i was the one doing the same; I would insist on being the majority.

You gotta choose pride or the money.

Ghana you dont even own Anglo Ashanti

vankelvin:
[b]
Don't trust nobody because every business partner have their own interest to protect.

It's only an issue if like Emirates and Ethiopean airline they also own airports. If they just own the birds; I dont see it become such a big deal. Most ships worldwide fly with funny little country island flags.

It may be hard to invite foreign investment if you insist on majority -51 percent ownership - yet you're broke and bankrupt like Ghana.

It better to allow foreign investors to bring as much much as they can and own as much shares as they can.

vankelvin:
We are on the same page
I prefer at least 10% owned by Government
41% owned by citizens (indigenes)
then at most 49% owned by foreign partners

OR

90% owned by citizens
10% for Government

KQ is bankrupt. Ghana gov is bankrupt. Focus on the bigger elephant and your mental health

Just30:
make KQ profitable and maybe you'll be able to compare

Yes, foreign ownership can go as high as 70%; 30% for kenyans; as per the laws of local ownership.
KLM already own 7.5%....reducing...as they have elected not inject any more capital...their shareholding has been diluted from 40%.
Considering our mismanagement and corruption; I would sell 70% to delta.

vankelvin:
The emboldened is the way to go
but K-nyansh Government should own at least 10% share , Kenyans people should also own about 41% then Delta can take the remaining 49%

You cant teach us about airlines or anything now that you're bankrupt.
We can only listen to Ethiopia

Ethiopia fired their legendary CEO - who now works for Delta.

That is the guy we want in Kenya Airways...Tewolde Gebremariam

Ghana you have a long way to go. And when you're broke the last thing you want to get into is airline. IMF are NOT going to accept such ventures.

Pay debt first - otherwise that airplane will be SEIZED on the air - by gazillion of creditors -- they would rather jack it .

Even those agreement - and even your embassies - some of them could be sold by your creditors.

You cant run airline when you cant manage debt.

Tanzania one is getting their planes seized all over.

Just30:
new arrangement for Ghana Airline... Asante Airline will own 49% share, Ghana govt will have 10% and the remaining will be floated to Ghanaians.

Ghana has 68 air service agreements with various countries.

Something like this won't be bad for Kenya plus a little piece of the agreement stating that the Kenyan government will not be liable for any debt or loses incurred

Understand the genesis
1963-1978 - we had one airline with Ug and TZ called East Africa Airline. Tanzania became consumed by jealous and we killed EAC - every pilot took off with their plane - and each country went to start their own.
1978-1995 - we had gov owned Kenya Airways - and again it became difficult to maintain
1995 - we executed africa most successfully privitasation of the airline - KQ was owned 40% by KLM; 25% through IPO; and 35% by kenya gov.
1995 - 2012 - KQ was profitable and one best airlines in Africa.
2012 - 2022 - last decade - it hit serious turbulence - gov has lend it money to survive - the money has been converted into equity
Now gov has been forced to own KQ again - with Kenya Banks - as 2nd biggest shareholders.
2023 - hopefully we sell 49% to Delta; the rest to Kenyans ; kenya gov can own maybe nothing.

Why did kenya gov inject money - the last 10yrs to save KQ - because it strategic and because we can fix it - and maybe recover the money we invested once we sell to Delta.

So hopefully Delta will pay off gov investment the last 10yrs - and KQ goes back to being private airline it was.

Nobody would have lost nothing.

vankelvin:
[/b]
Oh! so that's what it is all about?
Seeing millions of foreign human beings in JKIA then what next? you use your taxes to pay off all the debts incurred by your airline ?
Can't private people(Kenyans) be made to run that airline instead of your Government?

Major reforms require political will - change in laws and etc. Land reforms, Immigration, Crime, Eskom and Union require a president ready to bite the bullet and a party that understand.

Right now only Malema is shouting reforms using crude ways and means because ANC have failed to continue with land reforms to ensure more South Africans struggling in urban centers are gien land to farm their own food in small farms for example. Land redistribution should be top priority even if the Boer disagree.

Immigration - has to be crackdown - to reduce the number of illegals so people dont have to take law on their hand and do it themselves. Police should be one making life hell for any illegal immigrant. Why not start asking for ID randomly and build a prison for all illegals.

Eskom has to be broken down into distribution, regulator, generation, supply. Right now Eskom can collapse south Africa. It has just too much power. They should never control generation, distribution, supply. Those should be decoupled. It should take few months to split Eskom into 10 companies...and reduce the systemic risk of a meltdown.

But you have delayed - and now power rationing starting to look normal like Nigeria have normalized theirs.

Crime - whatever you need to fix this - fix it. If it mean more police add. Crime and rape should never be that prevalent. You're already homicide capital of the WORLD - that takes a lot of effort. I feel fixing immigration and land reforms will reduce crime - because poor South Africans resort to crime as both a political protest and also lack of opportunity

AfriqueDuZuid:
Government shortcomings are suplimented by private sector which happens to be the strongest

It not nice - it great - because JKIA IS hub - just like Ethiopia's Adis and Jobur - and it make interconnection easy.
We just mismanaged ours due to corruption.
And now we have to sell it.

We have kept it this long because it strategic asset. You just need to see JKIA passengers number approaching 10 million - while Accra will struggle to get a million passengers annually.

vankelvin:
Having a national airline is nice but there's no sense in running a profitless National airline
That's pure nonsense

Seriously you should get mental help.

Just30:
Well to your surprise.. They negotiated with their external holders long ago ending October and reached a 30% haircut for them with new swap agreement to be publish.



This publication is for current holdout creditors still thinking of being holdout creditors by the new date of 30 December.
It simply gives them 2 options to either trigger their legal clauses for govt to trigger it legal freeze clause so that the govt can move on with it CAC with the majority in agreement while the holdouts go through a lengthy court process or run for further negotiation.

If comprehension is too hard for you... You can read from the attached comment, it makes it simpler

Read this again slowly - it for all external debts - including bilateral debt - when UK loan you - they dont issue Eurobond - they wire the money directly - and you pay.

And there is no hint of any negotiation.

Again dont argue with stubborn facts. You will LOSE again and again and again.

Domestic front - deadline has been pushed - no takers

We are looking at classic default by early January.

Now that you have empitied your forex to do kamikaze run on the USD - and all that positive sentiment - has today been eroded.

Just30:
again you fail to understand...

Govt reached out to it external creditors long ago and reached and agreement with most of them which we've all come to know as 30% haircut for external creditors.... The new terms for their bond swap will be announced soon.

Nigerian gas is not a bond buyer

If Ghana central bank burned it forex, the Cedi will not be appreciating this much ... Infact Ghana central forex has surged to almost 10 billion since it dropped to 7 billion in July.

Next excuse for Kenya desperate need to look for company in it default

You have no idea what negotiation strategies are

I agree South Africa institutions are pretty admirable backed by a modern constitution. Even USA dont have such. Kenya has to build it institutions and we are probably half way there. We have had sitting president election annualed and that gave our judiciary real cojones. They have seen done many great things.

Definitely South Africa Judiciary is Africa best by a mile. Kenya is half way there - with 2010 constitution mostly borrowed from South Africa - what is ailing us is underfunding of the judiciary and a crazy backlog. Ruto has committed to work with judiciary to double the judges and magistrate - and build lot more courts.

I dont know enough of the rest - but I think ESKOM should be biggest concern - because it has systemic risk to the economy and general wellbeing. That should occupy Ramaphose and ANC every day.

jl115:
Ramaphosa hasn't had the backing of the ANC to implement the reforms necessary to get SA on track faster, however under his presidency he has been able to prosecute and jail a former president for defying the law, something which will not happen in Kenya, he has uncaptured and started rebuilding several institutions like the NPA, Denel, transnet, Eskom(approved IPPs) and privatised SAA, cracked down on corruption(to an extent), acquired billions of dollars of FDI.

We are not talking domestic default you had few days ago.

We are now on external debts- bonds - and even bilateral & multilateral loans that are not issued as bonds. Not just Eurobonds. Even Nigeria Gas wont be paid.

On domestic front - domestic investors have refused to return their bonds to exchange for new ones. That mean youre going to do the classic default - because they dont accept your terms.

And now we are hearing Ghana CBK took their last forex - flooded the Ghana market - to sustain a run on the dollar - and now they have nothing left in the coffers/

Therefore, we have a classic default.

Just30:
read again.... It seem you didn't understand

Not even close to a default ... We will not be joining Kenya in that league

This is a follow up to the new bonds that have been agreed upon which signified zero coupons for the year 2023..

The new agreement for the external debt will be published soon.


Your lack of reading comprehension will always hurt your attempt to make an understanding of things like finance and economics.

This publication is a CAC designed for hold out creditors to either trigger their lawsuit clause which will lead the govt to trigger it clause on freeze on litigation

Turns out the DEADCAT BOUNCE WAS PROUDLY SPONSORED BY GHANA GOV. These Ghanains dont think at all. They took the few remaining forexes - and tried to game the USD market - went bankrupt completely. Whoever got the cheap dollars; hold on them;

https://twitter.com/BBSimons/status/1604781546749104128
Okay, I was wrong. I told folks at various times that the govt of Ghana will not suspend payments on external debt until it formally engages creditors on a plan next year. I did not anticipate that it will burn thru its reserves to reinforce a run on the dollar.

You took an hour to recover. Drink some milk. This is going to be two decades.

Ghana announced that it will default - starting today

The default start now - when next interest or principal payment is due - and they indeed honour their word not to pay - they would have defaulted.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2T30IG

The IMF has said a comprehensive debt restructuring is a condition of the deal.

Just30:
not a default lunatic

This is a follow up to the new bonds that have been agreed upon which signified zero coupons for the year 2023..

The new agreement for the external debt will be published soon.


Your lack of reading comprehension will always hurt your attempt to make an understanding of things like finance and economics

Ruto is the real deal. You'll soon his crazy hardwork paying. Him and the Zambian president are the new kids in the block. Ramaphosa has disappointed. Seem to tired to lead. The South Africa reform train has totally derailed. ANC gov is just there. More sleepy than Buhari

jl115:
BTW so far I'm impressed with Ruto... Especially his no nonsense approach to failing SOEs

We shall have this engagement sometime in 2023 inshallah.

jl115:
it's not what you believe, it's what the facts tell us, and in terms of the indexes available to us it places SA above Egypt and Joburg above Cairo

The silence from resident madman is proudly sponsored by Ghana sovereign default.

They should default daily so we can have some peace to engage in mature adult convo.

I believe Egypt's Cairo when we compare infra, housing, and such will beat Joburg

jl115:
like I said before SA is ahead of Egypt in terms of pure infrastructure as well.....so what's your point

WB/IMF uses nominal GDP for that - and also for daily poverty rate and middle class.
I know Kenya will get to upper middle income when we approach 4,000usd.
South Africa need to get to 12,000usd to become like Mauritus a developed country.

USD is just gold standard for international comparison despite drawbacks like temporary currency shocks and of course south asains who keep their economies strength hidden.

jl115:
Yes its more complicated to calculate however it is a much more fair means to compare economies.... That's why they developed it.

Also glad you saw your mistake wrt to GDP nominal not being a factor when measuring which income class a country falls in.

Now that we are on the right track - let resume next year on those indicators. Leave political-social indicators. Egypt is military islamic dictatorship. I wont want to live there.

jl115:
Ive already posted several sources that clearly show SA is far ahead of Egypt wrt infrastructure as well so yeah.... Even this argument of yours has gone bust

It has drawbacks - it hard to update (for example we already know Ghana has tanked using USD) and secondly it doesnt take care of quality - haircut in Kenya and South Africa - are not exactly the same - South Africa one likely to be more hygienic and will include massage. Here in Geneva I pay 10 times for haircut - but the number of haircutting machines they have is also 10 times.

jl115:
GDP ppp is much more useful at comparing countries with each other since it takes into account cost of living.....a fvcking important factor when evaluating the efficiency and well being of an economy.

And no, GNI is used to classify a country within a certain income group, not gdp nominal