₦airaland Forum

Obaboon, Angola the war torn country, with half your oil, has had GDP of 140B - now 127B. Do you think Angola has anything more than Oil.

Nigeria has had twice their oil - so 280B of your GDP is OIL.

The rest is poverty. Remove OIl from Nigeria. You cant do nothing. 90% of gov revenue is OIl.

obaaderemi:
R I P, you are not smart. If it's population why is Ethiopia not up close to Nigeria, or why's Angola not up there if it's oil?

Your GDP like I've maintained is less than $100bn. Which part of that is hard for you to understand?

How can Kenya have a bigger economy than Nigeria when you are stuck with tea as your biggest export? Your revenue target is already faltering under Ruto. You are borrowed up to your eyeballs and your debtor will start calling in their loans as from 2023. Your prognosis is scary, what with droughts and all? Try catching up with morroco first. Learn to crawl before you try flying.

And please, get over the Helios heartbreak. What's done is done. Our Target were those assets. Thank you for the additional $50m as well. Kenyans are fools.

Prof of John Hopkins University surely mad man knows some of the basics. He is not invested in Ghana local politics to want to lie for you. He is helping explain the pain. The pain is real - percentages are an attempt to guestimate the pain the Ghanians are going through - the pain of everything trippling while income remain the same.

Where does kenya come in.

Ghanian right now has to buy things 3 times he bought last year while few if any have had their income tripled.

Again how does Kenya become a subject of Ghana inflation. You cannot say Switzerland are suffering because things are still expensive than Ghana. They used to it - their income are aligned - and so is Kenya used to buy things at certain price - and income at prize - that makes them buy those things - and have business operate selling those things.

Switzerland inflation is almost zero but things are expensive - but so are incomes.

Just40:
A Turk will say same same ...

He's using the wrong basket ...
It doesn't change the fact that the cost of living for every Kenyan is super higher than a Ghanaian.

Kenya now fully on board on GMO - joining South Africa, Burkina Faso, Egypt and Sudan. GMO and fertilizer is the solution to Africa hunger problem - but Africans with poor education remain hobbled by witchcraft, voodoism and pseudo science - and has lacked behind adoption of biotechnology.

Instead of adopting disease and drought resistant GMOS - many in Africa would rather import toxic caricogenic pesticides that are causing cancers - while pretending they can afford organic farming.

Organic farming is a luxury for very rich people. Biotechnology like GMO provide Africa with opportunity to compete and produce food at scale.

TRADE CS Moses Kuria says govt has allowed importation of 10 million bags of duty-free GMO maize for 6 months; cites dire food situation in Kenya.
https:///3V2WZyL

Steve Hanke
@steve_hanke
Bloomberg reports that #Ghana's inflation hit 40.4%/yr in October. That’s the official rate. It’s WRONG. Today, I measure inflation in Ghana at 158%/yr.

Just40:
I like the way you like to project the fear of Kenyans on us but our inflation is 40% and the retail prices here are still far lower than in Kenya.. Kenyans are the one who can't even afford food... By year end when Ruto start slapping you guys with various cost increments because of IMF, you'll cry more.

Ethiopia officially start to export 400MW to kenya. We just need to ink trade deal with Ethiopia - open our borders - Eth & DRC give us market the size of Nigeria without the drama.


Addis Ababa, November 17, 2022 (FBC) – Ethiopia has officially started exporting electricity to Kenya as of today, November 17, 2022.

The Ethio-Kenya 500 kilovolt power transmission line and converter substation has officially started selling electricity to Kenya.

It is stated that the Ethio-Kenya 500 kilovolt transmission line, which officially started power transmission today, has a potential to generate up to 100 million USD in revenue annually.

It is also stated that the transmission line has a capacity to transmit up to 2,000 megawatts of electricity to countries from Kenya to Tanzania to South Africa.

Ethiopia has already started selling electricity to Sudan and Djibouti, and has signed a MoU with Somaliland, Tanzania, South Sudan and other African countries for power export.

A statement sent by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) to Fana Broadcasting Corporation (FBC) indicates that Ethiopia earned 95.4 million US dollars from power export to Sudan and Djibouti.

They are heading to 200 - if CEDIS drop to 18 by year end - a real possibility - from 6 at start of the year.

gallivant:
Recent data from them won't be ideal; thanks to inflation hovering almost at 180% their economic outlook and figures change by the hour.

Obaboon, you're africa largest on account of population and Oil.

You remember saying kenya GDP was 30B when it was 60B . Now as we speak this year it going to be 120B (WB predicts 117B but they normally slightly understimate). Kenya this year will collect 24B dollars as revenues - and next year 30B dollars. Do you still believe our economy is 30B or now less than 100B

Nigeria is essentially stuck where it has been for more than a decade; any growth; is less than population growth; meaning per capita is falling and falling - poverty is multiplying. And with an over-valued Naira - you real economy is 200-250B dollars.

In less than a decade kenya will have bigger economy - 250B - than Nigeria - which remain stuck because it's systemic and structural issues are becoming harder and harder to fix - with oil production falling.

obaaderemi:
R I P, when you go this way it's clear you're hurting. You have very thin skin like a woman.

If we were not man enough we wouldn't be Africa's largest economy while you are stuck below $100bn.

Obaboon I choose how and when to respond to post. kenya is not Nigeria that fears Benin or that expelled Ghanians. Now I see Ghanian doing that. Kenya is free for all country because we are men enough to compete and send Helios home - 600M - they went out with 50M. I dont think they will invest in Kenya anytime soon.

There is difference btw being a man and a noisy thug or animal.

If you're men enough join Africa Free Trade Area and compete. You wont. You cant.

obaaderemi:
Typing in so many words is a display of your effeminate nature.

Kenyans are docile I repeat. And I can see you haven't gotten over how Helios, the company run by two astute Nigerians raped Kenyan taxpayers. They took your lunch and still got a thank you gift of $50m transport fare.

See this kind of noise we have got used from Nigeria. They cram themselves - 10 in single room - and then go ranting how they own kenya because they are in bar making noise.

Kenya have pulled themselves by bootstrap in mostly semi-arid baren country - by focusing on what is important - quality education and hardwork - and we have made it - compared to many places in Africa - we live in a country that works - where things functions - where many in Africa come and get suprised. They wonder how tea and coffee has created all this wealth ? How are people buying all these new cars? Living in these million dollars house? Do you have gold? diamond? oil? nope.

We dont have any fear of anyone - because right from class 1 - we go through brutal highest quality of education system in africa - and a system that instill hardwork.

You're welcome as Indian or Chinese or Nigerian to come - and try eat our lunch . Ask the Nigerian who've come here - Helios recently left minus their shirt. Your banks are hopeless - they got conned bought small tiny banks - and cannot make any money. Those that have made money - very small - they have hired kenyans. Dangote cannot dare.

Kenyans are feared in east africa because we are smart, hustle and obey the rules of the games.

As for Somalis - they are Kenya Citizen - and are in BOTTOM of any ranking - they scores the least in everything - and we give affirmative actions to join good schools, universities, to get jobs. They have good merchant class - but majority are living in arid areas barely surviving.

obaaderemi:
Kenyans are docile. You got no verve. What you call noisiness is probably confidence and a feeling of your own self worth.
You see that a lot in West Africans. Foreigners take a lot away from your effeminate asses. The Indians rule you in business, the Somalis are stealing your lunch. Even the Nigerians all the way from West Africa run rings round you in your country and you label them noisy.
Your brothers and you have spent a worthy part of your life here on nairaland making noise and embarrassing yourselves occasionally. You truly admire Nigerians. Your wives can't get enough of Nigerian TV shows and the men can't get enough of Nigerians. It's funny in a way if you really get down to it.
You're weak and effeminate and stvpid. It goes without saying.

You've never been to kenya nor meet kenyans. Ask those that have. Kenyans are not noisy & loud (Nigeria are). Kenyans are courteous, respectfully, friendly and generally obey laws - and very hardworking.

We dont carry a chip around our shoulders seeing whites or somalis or chinese or nigerians or ugandans or name them as threat or racist or such. We treat them courteously and respectfully - we do our job diligently - kenyan are happy jolly and always ready to have some fun.

But if you treat kenyan badly - then you'll see the other side of kenyan. This is now reserved is mostly for west africans who are badly behaved.

The whites learnt long time ago during armed struggle to respect kenyans, the indians learnt this, somalis have and others - treat kenyan well and they treat you back well - try your Nigeria type of nonsense - and you'll see. I have seen Nigeria weep like babies - that is just unmanly - most kenyans are hardcore - and will not cry - they will hurt you badly.,

Kenyans respect and value hardwork - honest good living - and money - the rest are details - whether you're yellow or green - you'll feel very welcomed.

Just ask Nigerians who've been in Nairobi long enough. Nobody in kenya will treat you with hostility because frankly what are coming to take from us nothing - you have to hustle like everyone to make money in kenya. We dont have gold or diamond or business or name it you're coming to steal. You're welcome to hustle your way like everyone.

Things you dont do in Kenya - CRIME - people will lynch you on the spot - and if you're lucky police will shoot you dead.

obaaderemi:
Kenyans are bigger noisemakers than anyone else. Your men are more like women than West Africans. They lack control and can't take control. Any wonder Indians, Chinese and Nigerians take charge in your country? Even Somalis Lord it over you. Get out of here with your projections.

Apart from fuel - and related transport component - the inflation in kenya has been arrested.

Wuoche:
Cooking oil Prices are dropping at a very high rate.

@650 the Naira would still be over-valued because the black-market rate is now 800 - until you get both rates in sync - the naira remain over-valued and you're enriching the few who can get dollars from 450 - and enslaving the majority who have to go to the backstreet and buy at 800.

GeneralDae2:
Speculation??

Actually what your Nigerian consider manly is shouting, behaving badly, being rowdy and unruly - that is in fact womanly - just like your cousins across the altantic - who always like to biatch - but cant get anything done without being into crime or laziness.

Men are stoic, reserved and dont need to shout.

obaaderemi:
How is this Nigeria? Kenyan men are known to be more effeminate than Nigerian men. You've lost it so much you've fallen to gallipig's level.

What is wrong with you Ghanians. University of Cape what? No 4 in Africa? Who died? Capetown university? Even best of Kenya UON - we are happy to be no 8 or 9 in Africa - you've got at least 5 world class south african universities. Why would you slowpoke imagine university of cape coast can be even in top 10 of Africa or west africa?? why?

Here is 50 acres - 30 acres planted with cocoa and someone is complaining. Kenyans with even 3 acres will not complain. Just admit your agricluture is stone age. I have seen Ghanians come to kenya and marvel at simple things in farming. 50 acres of tea - you can build your own tea factory. 50 acres of cocoa if Ghana was not a zoo you should have your own chocolate farm. Why not import cow semen and start rearing dairy ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ7EPj8LsrM

vaxx:
it is simply a hint for you to have idea of our living expenses , A cocoa farmer whose business is not formally represent has lots of cash to send his kids to an expensive university abroad , many Kenyans in formerlly legalized jobs can't try it.

Ghanaian tertiary institution is one of the best in africa , university of cape coast was recently rated 4th best in africa , well ranked than any Kenyan university . Having an international profile in CVs is very common among educationist here .

Look like Nigeria cant hold the Naira anymore - expected to be devalued to 650 to a dollar

Biggest Devaluation in Six Years May Be on the Cards for Nigerian Currency

Africa’s largest economy is expected to devalue its currency after elections in February by the steepest margin in six years to align it with market perceptions, according to a survey of investors and analysts.

Nigeria operates a multiple exchange regime dominated by a tightly controlled official rate, cutting off access to many businesses and individuals, which in turn drives demand to the unauthorized black market. This has led the spread between the managed and parallel markets to significantly widen. The difference is almost 77%.

Of the 13 participants in the Bloomberg poll, 11 expect the Central Bank of Nigeria to devalue the naira after the election. The remaining two predict it will continue with a gradual depreciation of the currency that started with the adoption of the more flexible NAFEX, also known as the investors and exporters exchange rate, last year.

“There will be a major devaluation either on President Muhammadu Buhari’s way out or in the first few months of the new administration,” Ikemesit Effiong, head of research at SBM Intelligence in Lagos, the nation’s commercial hub, said in an emailed response to questions.

The scale of the devaluation may be influenced by who wins the presidential vote, said Daniel Sodimu, sub-Saharan Africa analyst at FrontierView, who estimates the naira’s fair value at 650 against the dollar.

“If a pro-business leader wins the election, then it is likely a devaluation would be sizable enough to make Nigeria’s economy smaller than South Africa’s, using the official rate to convert,” Sodimu said. Such a move would help stop the shortage and rationing of dollars, which have been a drag on business operations in the country and an overall disincentive to invest in Nigeria, he said.

An incumbent party retaining power may see modest changes such as “the current crawling adjustments to the exchange rate will remain, so it will keep Nigeria as the largest economy, on paper,” Sodimu said.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biggest-devaluation-in-six-years-may-be-on-the-cards-for-nigerian-currency-1.1847025

Why?

GeneralDae:
This is temporary, Nigeria should be top place again this month. Back to number one position.
Bookmark this post and remind me again first week of December.

The zoo is weaning herself from oil by force.

"Nigeria is now ranked as Africa's fourth-largest oil producer behind Libya, Angola, and Algeria", according to Oxford Economics Africa, citing IEA data, as Nigeria output estimated at 1m barrels in October

These are big falls in oil production in both Angola and Nigeria over the last decade and a worrying trend. Sets a big challenge for governments that have to start taxing their people rather than use tax revenues from commodities. The temptation is naturally to borrow instead

vaxx:
it is even abnormal to used minimum wage has standard here . Ghana Labour market is highly influence by informal sector . More than 70 percent Ghanaian are in informal sector , more than kenya . Using apple against orange is what I don't get here. Very obtuse . It is just like Nigeria having a larger informal sector and yet with a lower wages .

The india wannabe wonder why you see Murano and wrangler here despite we earn just a dollar per day using 12 cedis as a standard of daily wages. Using GDP per capital has a standard . In 2017 Ghana has a minimum of 4700 why kenya has 3700. In simple terms , the economic rules simply illustrates that it is easy to make money in Ghana than kenya hence the poverty ratio of kenya being higher than Ghana

A barber in Ghana is absolutely doing well
than her counterpart in kenya factoring factoring GDP per capital

How much of that GDP is minerals... like Gabon and Eq Guinea.Your people earn less than a dollar a day...that crazy..in Kenya nobody will work for less than 4-5 dollars a day

Japanese yen or even Veitnam dong or South Korea won are STABLE. You dont see them depreciating yearly. In fact their problem is of no inflation.

You cannot talk about cost of living when you live in Zimbwabwe when currency has depreciated since independence by 150,000 to dollar now.

Kenya since independence - it's 120 to a dollar.

You cannot convince me that people income have risen by 3 times the last three months. Or 150,000 since independence.

Ghanians are wailing. You live in Zimbwabw or Zambia

vaxx:
our issue with cedis is more of internal one ( speculative individual who used it for business and black market operator .you don't value the number of cash that buy Apple's but how much of that cash available to buy the Apple's. If we are buying dollar for another 14hundred thousand and we have billions equivalent of it in dollars that is what that matters . It will takes you thousands of Japanese yen to get you a 100 dollar that doesn't mean they are performing poorly .

vaxx:
they are always unwritten rules behind every penny you borrowed , china might sized and control their railway , freezed your asset taking with chinese loan etc if that becomes a must ? What are you leaning on ? Tea and flower ? You must be mad ?let me give you a hint, Somewhere in 2008, the IMF decided to sell more than 400 tons of their Fund’s gold. Gotten from Ghana and all other rich mineral resources country . the IMF earned about 3 billion more than it expected. And that billiion was used to give low-income countries low or no-interest loans like yours a relief , i doubt the potential of tea and flower .

Give yourself a read , your country forced more than three banks in 2016 when it becomes obvious there are already in distress

With Ghana certain debt profile , it is already in the process of shedding it , what is your country doing?

What are you talking about...last banking crisis we had was 1998.There are 45 banks in Kenya...some are family banks for use by small clientele. Banking crisis only is an issues if affect big banks..in Kenya no single bank has even 10 percent market share...now they are 38 banks and more getting license.

Just40:

Basically... Kenya is a true reflection of a zoo

Even junk like KFC cost a finger to get.. you can only wonder how many kidneys it will cost to get a boutique meal

Is that why you cedis is now 150,000 to a dollar... remember you redominated the cedis,removed four zeros and peg it to a dollar..now it gone 15 times down..and you can bet income has not risen 15 times... unless you gov or private sector increase salaries.Youre just another Zimbabwe or Zambia

vaxx:
nah , you goofed boy, ours comes as result of global phenomenon like covid 19 ( same things that causes your debt unstablity and the internal government police like the financial clean up exercise . So you knew nothing. Your government was not doing enough In 2016 when he forcefully acquired three debt ridden banks , your bigger problem has been prosponed , Ghana is handling his own nah , that is just the difference .

Despite your stubbornness to fact that can be obtained from open source , you still fumbled. Chinese citizens will eat you alive for saying their price index hasn't changed of resent. If it is way lower than many developed nations like them , it doesn't changed the fact they are not under inflation , maybe well managed but the fact is they did not excaped it . When the whole world was at his knees during covid 19, Ghana cedis was performing best to the dollar , Ghana was giving free water to her citizens , lowering electricity cost for her citizens and so many social responsibility , if kenya try that , your country will bleed out . She is not in a financial position to rely on tea economy to drive such bill. nah almost your entire population workforce are into agriculture , so what types of diversification are you talking about ? That is even bigger than Ghana entire population. So you aren't doing better than Togo bro. If you are borrowing at such alarming rate in which constitution was even thrown to the gutter to allowed for more debt profile. Borrowing beyond what you can pay. And china care less. they suddenly add another 11 million dollar to your debt for your failure to refuse paying up what you borrowed.
But if push comes to shove, what are you leaning on in kenya ,, Tea and flower , you must be mad .

We have billions if not trillions of dollars sitting in form of common dirt sands ( gold in our soil ) borrowing hasn't become a problem , the world is aware, it is it the ability to pay back on time . We are capable .

Mindless ranting.Which bank did Kenya gov acquire and why would it even do that.If a bank in Kenya get into problem, central bank closes it, protect stakeholder money and is promptly sold to other banks.There are many such small banks in Kenya..and more getting license.Kenya and Ghana debt crisis did not start with COVID.It was already a problem.Kenya started to dial down and got into imf program as soon as it was available.Ghana delayed, continued to borrow and is now crushing. Debt market are not interested in long stories about dust..they want money in gov coffers.Kenya economy generates 21 billion annually in revenue.Its 115 billion dollars economy as of last year... likely to hit 120 billion this year.Ghana you're dead if imf doesn't come in quick. Kenya will always confound primitive extractive economies like Ghana and Nigeria wondering how we have build all these stuff with tea and coffee...no we use our brains.. human capital..the western world don't have any gold or diamond or oil...they invest in their human capital ..you take refuge in natural resources and crushes every three years

obaaderemi:
The largest shareholder of Safaricom is the British company, Vodafone with it's 40% indirect ownership. Safaricom is not really a public company.
So in essence it's still a monopoly and it affects other players in the field and by extension Kenyans.

There was a time Nigeria used to import cement and clinkers like Kenya does. A Nigerian company stepped in and today local production meets our entire demand. It's still expensive because of factors such as power supply but this will change with time.

The baffling thing is why cement costs in Kenya is a tad more expensive than in Nigeria. Recall that as at March cement prices in Kenya was a maddening $9. If we convert that to Nigeria using the black market rate you are find of quoting, that's about N7000! Now it's back to ksh 650, that's about $5.2. That's still more than in Nigeria.

Safaricom is largely own by public with Vodafone as the strategic investor...that is why chairman and CEO are appointed by Kenya gov.Safaricom has dominated market by being innovative.. giving the world mpesa and that their critical advantage.Yes mpesa now need to become a bank....then telcom business can compete. As for cement...Dangote final price even without current global crisis was higher than anywhere.In Zambia dmDangote sell for 1800 naira

obaaderemi:
Nigeria is more industrialized than Kenya. Another baffling thing in spite of our power supply issues.

Tiles is something Uganda type countries celebrate..not Kenya.Dont lie to yourself Kenya is industrial giant in sub Sahara with most of our manufacturing companies operating regionally..only south Africa and Egypt are bigger..plus say Morocco.

vaxx:
kenya staticians institution is highly politically influence , who knows if that is the exact figure ? Cus consumer price index keep exposing them..

For example , you can still have a good meal in any standard restaurant with just two dollars in Ghana (about 28 to 30 cedis ) I doubt it will happen in kenya. I have checked on common food outlet like KFC.

Kenya is transparent.CPI include raw price data.Ghana doesn't.Hanke has flagged your inflation...for being grossly understated and people are wailing on the streets.

Thanks. I didnt know they had reign on them. That is why cement prices have remain inflation proof until recently. Dangote just makes a call to Bua and they agree to charge equivalent of 1,200ksh - and that was last year - before you add transport. That is twice kenya plus.

gallivant:
It's the same for cement and almost every other consumer good. Kenyans can never subjected to Dangoteism, inflation and monopolies. Kenya is not a unregulated free trade area, a zoo!!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FF00GbxWQAEJJbA.jpg

You basically need to do something similar to what we do with petrol/diesel prices.
Every month - a study is done to determine all the cost.
And maximum price for all kenya region factoring transport is issued.

So oil companies dont jack prices willy nilly or collude to rig the market.

Every 15th day they publish maximum prices to avoid Dangote capture.

https://www.epra.go.ke/maximum-retail-petroleum-prices-in-kenya-for-the-period-15th-november-to-14th-december-2022/

It doesnt but it's largely a public company - benefiting the public. That only area where monopolies are allowed. If public didnt have a huge stake in it - it would have been forced to reduce the market share.

Does Nigeria have something like Competition Authority to check on Dangotes
https://cak.go.ke/

Look in Kenya - for example - when study was done - and it was determined that oil companies had formed an oligopoly ( a cartel like Dangote & BUA) - the petrol prices are regulated by gov.

obaaderemi:
Does this stop Safaricom from being a monopoly?

Safaricom is owned 35-40% by Vodacom - which is owned 60 percent by Vodafone. Vodafone therefore own about 20% of Safaricom.15% by South Africans.
kenya gov owns 35%
Kenya public - investors - own 25% that Kenya gov sold via IPO through NSE.
Kenya gov being custodian of public investor has huge say in Safaricom.
Right now both Chairman and CEO are kenyans appointed by Kenya Gov.

In short Safaricom is a largely a public company with kenya gov controlling things and protecting public interests. It's not owned by Dangote.

obaaderemi:
Still less than the 70% market share controlled by the British owned Safaricom in your telecom sector. That's a monopoly.

Inflation is falling.
You can check the prices at https://www.carrefour.ke and you may notice kenyans are not complaining.
Ghanians are one being gutted and you can hear their wails.
Sugar/Maize had gone to 125kshs/Kilo - now they are down to 90 per kilo.
Normally they should retail for 50-60 kshs per kilo.
Cooking gas/oil - also down by huge margin.

Only problem is petrol & diesel - but it's not increasing - just reducing by 2 kshs.

So I expect a massive cut in inflation in nov and dec - might go one or two percent down.

https://www.carrefour.ke/

obaaderemi:
Says the one who has always muddled up his numbers here.

What has arithmetic got to do with the fact that your inflation rate obviously is rising and not subsiding?

Market share. Dangote 60%. BUA 20%. Lafrafe 19.5%. The rest 0.5%. Outcome some world most expensive cement prices. Dangote & BUA just meet and fix the price.
Kenya most are 15% market share - with Bamburi having 30% (maybe 20% now). Dangote would never dare come to Kenya.

This was 2018 - I think three new players have join the market. Kenya gov owned Portland Cement is at 15%. Bamburi is majority owned (60%) by LafargeHolcim

68816419:
you said "Dangote is expensive because there is no real competition" , BUA group produces about 12 million tones of cement per annum, amd will surpase dangote in some years to come