₦airaland Forum

Kenya Election Update:
With an 1 hr and 30mins to go; and with rigging/voter suppression largely having failed; Biometric has been used in 99.9% of stations so far;

Azimio next straw is Low Mt Kenya Turnout.

Let see if tallying and transmission will be free and fair like the voting has been.

From 5pm - polling station will transform into Final Tallying Center - the only rigging that can happen there is for agents of opponent to be kicked out and POS to be compromised.

I deleted once I checked and discovered it was FAKE News. No voting happened in Australia. I instead replaced it with image of areas where voting will happen in diaspora...12 countries doesnt include Australia.

Only: Canada, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, South Africa, UK, Burundi, USA, South Sudan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany.

Tayser:
Glad you deleted what you had written earlier. It has already turned out the opposite.

They export lots of beggars - nearly all disabled beggars in Kenya are from TZ -

gallivant:
Tanzanians nowhere to be seen. They have exported only laziness!!

Kenya is first rising and will overtake Ghana in a year or two.

GeneralDae:
Top Diaspora remittances to Africa in 2021.

Nigeria: $19.2 billion
Ghana: $4.5 billion
Kenya: $3.7 billion
Senegal: $2.7 billion
Zimbabwe: $2.0 billion
Democratic Republic of Congo: $1.3 billion
Uganda: $1.1 billion
Mali: $1.1 billion
South Africa: $900 million
Togo: $700 million

I predicted a national turnout of 72%.
Mt Kenya turnout will drop from 83- 88% last time to 70-75%. 65% is way too low...that is what you get in Coast.
Elsewhere outside Luo and Kalenjin - I see turnout dropping 5%.
Biggest drop in turnout will happen in Northern kenya as manual register that aided top up rigging is gone.
Heck even in Luo Nyanza we will see drop in turnout if they have been doing top up rigging.

IEBC are reporting about 30% turnout mid-day.
I think normally most people vote early morning and immediately after lunch (2-4)

But by default turnout will drop by 5% - for simple fact that register is old - wasnt completely cleaned (lots of dead people, transferred)

So 72% is sort of the histogram .... but it could go down to 70%

StivoH2022:
This time turn out will be approx 70%.....Mt Kenya 65%.
And that will be the last nail of Ruto's quest coffin

Kenyan diaspora vote - London Kenya embassy

Diaspora is 291 const - only vote for the presidency

Sound racist to me

jl115:
nope, he is a murdered and thief..... He will be no better than any other president.

Both your candidates are morally corrupt... Its like us having to choose between only Zuma and Magashule.

And a DA coalition are just about to take over NMB metro... Meaning a DA coalition would be controlling 5 of SAs 7 metros..... Kenya ain't catching sh1t

This was my analysis a day or two after 2017 elections
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=5258.0

It takes a lot of work/time to acquire domain knowledge - Charles Horsnby though a colleague here at Europe working in IT like me - but has Phd in kenya politics. I personally grew up reading kenya politics and I understand almost every nook and crany of kenya - and it's issues/politics/dynamics.

You cannot just do number crunching without extensive research and knowledge... Nate Silver does it for sports and politics..others do it for stocks. PREDICTION is very very tough. So many variables that throws you off - almost impossible to predict tomorrow.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

obaaderemi:
Number crunching is actually a full time job for many. I wasn't talking about just doing it for elections.

It's online - in other forums I participate in. We have election every 5yrs - why would this become a full time job?

obaaderemi:
We didn't see your predictions in 2017 though you were on these threads then(at least the other thread).

But this time around by the end of today we'll know if you are really good at this. Your numbers are right now in public domain. I hope this is part of what you do for a living and not just as a dilettante.

Kenya is one of Africa long standing democracy - without any military rule - since 1963 indepedence.
Long lines before even breakfast.

Kenya Diaspora votes -

This was my 2017 re-run. I predicted Uhuru would get 97, Raila who had boycotted 2%, and Turkana boy 1%. The turnout was off because NASA unleashed violence on the election day.

I have done this since 2005. And I have been absolutely right except in presidential election of 2007 (Charles Horsnby was also wrong as election was brazenly rigged) - I nailed the parliamentary numbers though. To imagine I can get it wrong by more than 1 percent is crazy.

2010 - opinion polls were saying 20:70 - I predicted 33 versus 67 - final score was 32 versus 68.
2013 - all opinion polls were predicting no one would win in 1st round and most were for Raila win - final score 51 versus 45 - I had predicted 51 versus 46.
In 2017 - I predicted 54 versus 44 - it was bullseyes.
In 2017 repeat - I predicted Raila would beat the Turkana to score 2% with Uhuru scoring 98% - it was bull eyes.

And not only that I predict mps/senators/governors seat.

Tayser:
Thats why im happy for you because you finally have a golden chance to prove your credentials. One of the things I hate in life is arguing over things that cannot be falsified, like what you've been doing. Thats why I kept ignoring your incessant arguments till now. Now finally, your figures are falsifiable within the next few hours. All you need to do is calm your statistical tiddies and wait.

Voting has started. William Ruto votes in his polling station in rural Eldoret

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-jQPznvkrY

If you're asked to derive your numbers what will you say - you're an abuse of our education system. Numbers should never be thrown carelessly. I for example I have spend a lot of time - watching opinion polls/rallies/studying the dynamics/ethnicity/tapestry of every region - so many indicators - every number I put down is meticulously researched. I am the Nate Silver of Kenya election - and I cannot compete with an idiot like you. Yes Charles Horsnby - yes I respect such a person - he put in great deal of effort into his work - although he isnt a kenya.

Nate Silver is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC New

Tayser:
We will see who is the joke tonight.

Tayser:
Regarding the bolded, you guessed right. Let me remind you that its no longer a wager if you only win and cannot lose. If both Ruto and Raila are winning from your calculations then we have a major problem. Remember we had a our own small club of Poll Rules where I had to defend my unbeaten streak? Yea, today is that day.

You're a joke.You just guess numbers. To imagine we can go toe to toe on number is crazy. I respect Charles Horsnby - he is deeply studied kenya politics and understand it' -

Voting to open in five minutes in all 46k polling station and in 12 diaspora Countries.There at least 97 observer missions.So far attempt to rollback democratic gains by scared president had been defeated by vigilant public.Voting closes at 5 pm and by 9 we will have good idea who will become the next president. The preliminary results will be transmitted electronically if gov doesn't try monkey games and being randomize by 7ish it will be clear who will win.

jl115:
that's why you'll never catch South Africa.... Kenya,typical African sh1thole

if we elect Ruto youre done

jl115:
this is how Rvp predictes every election..... He just states every possible scenario and afterwards he says "look I predicted it" we went all they way from 56% Ruto win to 51% Raila win

Hunter,few hours...mine is 55.5..Charles is 52 percent

Hornsby - absolutely!! I also called 2007 for Raila and he was brazenly rigged out - the rest not even a percentage point off.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog/eve-of-poll-prediction#comments
should know when to quit and I've called them roughly correctly since 1992 (apart from 2007, which I missed, but which I would have called for Raila). Still, let us see what the next four days hold ! Every Kenyan election holds something new.

Charles Horsnby is pretty good...but it been difficult year for him. Ruto cannot lose this election even if he wanted.
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog
Final predictions. I still predict William Ruto will win the presidential election narrowly – by 51% or 52% to 48 or 49% for Raila. 8.3 m for Ruto to 8.1 m votes for Raila with negligible votes to the other two minor candidates (<1% combined), based on a mid-range runout of 74-75%. This is a tiny majority, but over 50% and meets all other requirements. But it is far from certain. Small changes to my estimates (much lower turnout in Mount Kenya, a complete ANC/FORD-K collapse in Western) could flip this the other way, rising to a 51%-49% Raila win. But still, I predict a small Ruto win, to be followed by aggressive attempts in the courts to invalidate it.

Uhuru thought he could rig in NEP. Gunshot fired. Ruto has counter-intelligence - this looking like 57-58 game now. Mt kenya has failed. Now to remote areas

BREAKING: Wajir - Eldas CDF office where ballot papers are being held has becoming a battle field. Bullets are being exchanged by un-known people and armed police officers. #WajirDecides #IEBC #Elections2022 pic.twitter.com/TwqUyt3rqt

— Insecurity KE (@InsecurityKE) August 8, 2022

Half the Kenyan guys here - young guns like Shma and Tayser - will disappear for a few weeks in great shame - and in depression - then will crawl back in new handles - and they will learn to respect their elders.

samorobo:
This are the last hours. Tommorow we will hear the result and then the dust can finally settle on this thread.

Recap of Last Kenya election - 2017 General Election.

Presidential - I predicted 53-54 versus 44-45% - the final tally was 54.4% versus 44.4%. Raila rushed to the court but the numbers were never impugned.

Parliament

The summary
FINAL RESULTS :
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
1.JUBILEE MPS--------------163 ( MOASS Predicted 159)
2. NASA MPS---------------114 (MOASS predicted 108)
3.INDEPENDENTS-----------13 (MOASS predicted 23)
TOTAL==========290
WOMEN REPS :
1.JUBILEE WOMEN REPS-----------31 (MOASS predicted 25)
2. NASA WOMEN REPS---------------16 (MOASS predicted 21)
TOTAL========47

Senate - I think 40 against 47.
Governorship -- I got 39 right against 47

The polls will open in few hours - and results should be ready by 9 pm tomorrow.

Like I have done in every Kenya election and referenda since 2005 - I calling this for Ruto at 55.5% against Raila's 43.5% - Waja & Mwaura combined will get 1 percent.

Ruto likely to score 57% as attempt to manipulate and rig election has so far failed - the use of crossing of names in manual register that aided topping up voting has also been declared illegal last minut.

PREDICTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 9 AUGUST 2022
===================================================================
Source: MOTHER OF ALL SPREADSHEET


NATIONAL SUMMARY
===================================================================
Registered voters: 22,199,312

Votes Expected To Be Cast: 16,072,665 72% - weighted historical average without cleaning register will see 5% drop of turnout.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Candidate Party Votes %
-------------------------------------------------------------------
William Ruto UDA 8,772,405 55%
Raila Odinga AZIMIO 7,058,158 44%
Others OTHERS 242,100 2% - Wajackoyah will score 1.7% - Mwaura 0.3%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 16,072,665
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Lowest Ruto will do is 54% of 8.5M; Lowest Raila will do is 6.7M of 42% - factoring all plausible Shenagians.
Highest Ruto will do is 57% of 9.2M; Highest Raila will do is 7.2M of 45% - if election is free & fair

The numbers settles at 55% of 8.7M for Ruto and 44% of 7M for RAILA

Firs they closed it claiming Ruto was using it to launder money. Then the Kenyatta acquired it silently and it got back to business.
https://www.theelephant.info/features/2020/07/02/its-our-turn-to-eat-cousin-of-kenyas-president-has-stake-in-sportpesa-betting-firm/

Saddamochieng00:
I'm just from seeing this on Twitter. I had no idea at all what was happening behind the scenes. All along I thought Ndungu was the one who was behind the infighting and subsequent fall but it seems his buddy Uhuru short-changed him too.

Saddamochieng00:
Yes I don't think Dick was aware of the technical side of it but he played a critical role in the early stages of setting up the firm.

The Bulgaria mafia killed him when he started issues...uhuru better be careful after he is done..those Easten Europe mafias are the worst. I know uhuru plans to come to Switzerland for few months a year so he better not think he will be able to walk freely after snatching Bulgaria mafia wealth

Tayser:
@ RVP, Shma....final predictions before d-day. Be specific, no ranges.

Mine
Azimio - 57 %
Kenya Kwanza - 41 %
WTF - 1.99 %
Mwaure - 0.01 %

Any other Kenyan free to chip in. Lets see the modern day Nostradamus.

Is there a formula to this madness or this just a wild guestimating.

I pity those who will work with Ruto. In fact Uhuru hated Ruto for all that pressure - Ruto even forced him to go to gym and reduce alcohol. MaDVD will cut weight and alcohol.

Ruto until Uhuru relieved him of duties - always reported to work at 5 am - normally 1st meetings he does by 6 am. That 1st appointment if you want to see him. By 10 in the morning - Ruto is done with office work - and go to field. You can bet as president he will be starting work at 5 am. Maybe cabinet meeting will be six!!!! and last will be shortly before 10pm.

Ruto has zero tolerance for stupid, lazy and drunkard...he can rain blows on you

NTSA:
Am sure his government operations will also be run with the same kind of meticulous planning and zeal......no politician in Kenya can match him he is in a class of his own.

What is big deal with mega rallies in the same place. Raila just never learns. This is what he has been doing since 1990s and he is going for his 5th loss.

Moi in 1990s did the opposite of mega rallies - holding many small rallies in villages and hamlet. This is what Museveni also does in Uganda. This strategy Ruto adopted. Just yesterday he did 4 rallies. Nyayo stadium was well attended.

Now Raila strategy since 1990s - same mega rallies in the same cities or towns - attended - you'd be suprised by Luos in those urbans areas. I was in ODM - and in our town Kericho - I attended one rally - Luos were almost the majority - they left their hustlers - to come and see Raila.

I think Nakuru he outed himself when he went tribal - and started greeting folks in their tribal language - he got the biggest roar when he spoke in dholuo - majority Kikuyus in the town were MIA. Raila once he retire next week to review why he lost - one thing he will discover - he has been preaching to Luos from Mombasa to Kisumu to Mandera.

When this election is over - you'll realize Ruto has run the campaign last seen under Moi - the most extensive the most intensive grassroot focussed campaign ever - reaching places never reached before. Those people in end of the world - are likely to be impressed by such visits.

And when Moi won - even with rigging here and there - there was no doubt he had run brilliant campaigns - and harvested many Mps. Ruto is probably the only person to spend days in Northern Kenya - sleeping there for a week. Turkana he combed villages. Everywhere he has combed - doing 12 rallies per day.

NTSA:
Those of us with ears and eyes know how both camps mobilize crowds.UDA chaps paid before Azimio...whoever paid last ended up with the crowd.
I was near a city county facility where Azimio guys were getting their T-Shirts yesterday, after which they were told payment would be done in Kasarani...plus the Diamond euphoria.

Make sure you put the money in some escrow account. Otherwise they will cry rigging, server and other tall giants. All one need to is get an excel. Ruto can only lose if he underperform nationally and score about 55% of GEMA. Otherwise he has two million gap btw him and Raila when you use realistic scenario. All one need is an excel....play around with %.

It not even close. In parliament is absolute massacre..

NTSA:
Am so sure of a Rutos win that I have total bets 15k. Should my man lose I am "broke", should he win, l will have a small choma party .