₦airaland Forum

jl115:
My bru I gave you the exact racial make up of all the metros controlled by the DA.... Now stop crying and take your L

You can't wait..I want you to overlay white settlement and DA popularity versus black &ANC.The metro DA got votes.. have white population in significant number including Pretoria.Your politics is as ethnic as Kenya if we call you a white African.

MzeeMwenyewe1:
Let me digest it for you, Uhuru kenyatta decided to support Raila odinga the opposition candidate at the expense of his deputy Ruto. My guy Rvp comes from the same tribe as Ruto called kalenjins (marathoners). Suddenly everything about Uhuru turned bad including the ones he was praising him for here on Nairaland. You can dismiss him as a jilted lover who has refused to move on.

We know uhuru abilities.He cannot run things.We were electing Ruto to help him.You can tell from where we are that Jubilee in 2nd term has failed.Big 4 is epic failure.BBI epic failure.Raila project has failed and now they are desperately trying to mess IEBC and possibly invite a civil war.Ruto abilities are well known.That is why he has taken Uhuru state machinery n Raila combined..and nailed them on the wall.Uhuru has very low popularity in his own village because he has failed.Are his own Kikuyu jilted too? A failure is a failure

NTSA:
On the debate issue am sure the guys will catapult Wajackoya to share the same stage with Raila and Ruto just like they did during Kenya kwanzas manifesto launch where they were sharing the screen/airtime .Raila can't take on Ruto 1on 1 .

The mainstream media are owned by Raila friend Macharia, Kenyattas,Mois and Agha Khan..they are in dilemma now as their candidate has bailed out.Citizen will likely split screen with Raila town hall.The rest may have show Ruto alone.It will be hard to change the rules because Wajackoyah didn't make 5 percent threshold

68816419:
I pray Ruto wins, Raila is too old to lead a failed country such as Kenya.

To avoid Kenya sliding to Nigeria type zoo I agree we can't afford a 80yr old sloth like Buhari

68816419:
Wow...is this the same RVP of those dayz?

What changed.. Jubilee was okay when Ruto was working hard to deliver.That is why they won reelection with bigger mandate.

NTSA:
As of July Ruto is at 53.4 % vs Raila 44.8 according to this opinion poll allegedly conducted on behalf of NIS .

Yes this one closest to reality..you just adjust turnout differential.. coast for example turn out is low..and you get your answer..Ruto will gain 1-2 percent from better turnout in his stronghold than Raila base

NTSA:
It's amusing that Raila has never quoted infotrack or TIFA in his campaigns probably because he knows the results are manipulated....when he was lamenting on how he has lost ground in Bungoma he was quoting Intel Research Solutions (IRS) which not many know about.

InfoTrak n Tifa still have 15 percent undecided votes.InfoTrak released a coast one this week with many places with 50 percent undecided voters two weeks to the election.Its hilarious �.I think they are being paid to manipulate polls.

Kazikazi:
Kenya's rot is too huge,you can't just blame uhuru alone. I remember in many occasions the IMF have been complaining of overvalued kenyan Schilling but the authorities failed to act,insted they kept on supporting the currency instead of letting it float as the EAC policies wants.Since the gov is officially broke they will have no choice but to let the currency float freely and all hell will broke loose,massive depreciation is on a way,hyperinflations,and eventually,with the weak currency,the true size of Kenya's GDP will emerge

Kenyans are very resilient and hardworking.Unless Raila wins don't hope Tanzania will see Kenya soon.Ruto has the antidote for our economic morass and in three years we will be roaring like never before

MzeeMwenyewe1:
We move to the riftvalley especially the lower part. Nakuru, Laikipia , Kajiado and Narok In 2017 uhuru got 75% of the votes. If we take Nakuru and Laikipia counties alone uhuru had 85% of the votes while raila got 12%. This time azimio will be retaining many sitting Mps and a governor from jubilee. Come 9th, Ruto and raila will be neck and neck at 50% to 45%. Next is North Eastern......

That is vodoo.Nakuru Raila had I think 20 percent mostly from Luhya,Luos ,Gusii and few Maasai.Nakuru is 55 percent Kikuyus,35 percent kalenjin.Laikipia is 80 percent Kikuyus,15 percent maasai and 5 percent kalenjin.Kajiado is 50 percent Maasai,35 percent Kikuyus and other tribes.Narok is 55 percent maasai and 35 percent kalenjin..10 percent Kikuyus.If you assume in Nakuru Raila will be getting 25 percent of Kikuyu and will lose half luhya...that about 13 percent minus 5 percent..he will improve by only 7 percent in Nakuru.Lee as governor is gone,so is Natembeya and Kenta because kalenjin will give solid 35 percent headstart to Ruto candidates meaning they only need 15 percent fr their tribes.Look for tribal data for each county and you can predict the election with high precision.

jl115:
@rvp2018 @rvp20182

I guess your silence on the above means you have accepted defeat ..... Like i said SA ain't Kenya

Nope, I need my laptop to check the data against racial configuration.I know Pretoria has lot of white population.How are constituncies delimited..mamelodi slum � large white suburbs..is population the key or the area

Kazikazi:
khekhekhekhekhekhekhekhe

A drunk man's signature

He was not suppose to steer the Kenya ship but some unpatriotic Kenyans convinced him that he can handle the saddle when he can't handle his alcohol.Its been lost five years and our economy is limping.Instead of building 500,000 units of housing we have 2,000.The entire Jubilee 5yr agenda was never implemented.He couldn't even roll huduma card numbers.But we are two weeks from fixing it.

Baller254:
The kuzimia gang are in full panic mode
What's left is insults, propaganda, tribalism and a last ditch attempt to have the so called deepstate rig the elections, totally ignoring that we have our own double agents within their deep state..
.baliv254.

Yes they were living in their own bubble where Raila was winning big on sheer strength of uhuru state machinery.It was supposed to be the last piece in the jigsaw.But things fell apart starting with BBI, then Mt Kenya didn't bite the bait, and now Ukraine war has wreck their ship completely.Limping Martha was torn apart by Gachagua Infront of 34 millions of Kenya .Uhuru political strategist Dr Nancy Gitau long left the country for Australia.Its over.What remain are few scared desperados like Matiangi, kibicho and Kinoti trying to stop the inevitable.Raila is down..he is on slow puncture.. can't be rescued

MzeeMwenyewe1:
In the hyped Mt. Kenya region the voter turn out will be less than 76%. Raila will get 25- 30% of the cast votes which translates to 1M while mwizi sugu will get approx 3M. In 2017 and 2013 raila didnt get above 1% in the region except in Meru county while uhuru got 94%.

How will that help him when he is losing more than 40 percent of his 2017 base outside Nyanza.Western, Ukambani and Coast Ruto is playing around 40 percent...that will more than handle any loss from Mt Kenya in turnout(remember kalenjin will turnout in 90 percent compensating for half any Mt Kenya drop) and Raila votes.And remember the 2017 1.5m gap remain.Ruto is likely to extend the gap to two million votes... because he is net gaining compared to Raila. Raila mistake is the failure consolidate and secure gains before going on the frontal.ts like my old poor Arsenal...scoring 3 goals then leaking 5.Lesson number uno defend defend before attacking.

jl115:
riddle me this, if there is such a distrust for white people then why is it a party led by a white person has been trusted by black voters and black coalition partners to run SAs biggest metros?....also p.s I am not a DA member, I don't vote for them nationally only locally.... And the party I vote for is a majority black(not coloured) party

SA isn't nearly as tribalist as Kenya... Not even close... Hence why the three major parties are led by individuals from minority ethnic groups

Give me the racial profile or composition of one such metro

jl115:
if you going to qoute me then qoute me properly

Looks like Shma e-whipped the intelligence right out of you

It's not personal..it just black south Africa distrust anything with white folks.Kenya has ethnic problem.My difference with Shma is for example at it core ethnic.You cannot runaway from South Africa racial and income inequality.The first sign of Intellect is accepting reality because there are very stubborn thing..you don't have to go through the so called 7 stages.Stop dreaming that ANC or EFF will allow some white minorities to rule south Africa again however well meaning.It can't happen for next 100yrs possibly

j15, you actually think that black south Africans will easily forget the apertheid horrors and elect coalition led by DA.It cannot happen.Humans in a group are not rational...they are emotional.Even if DA promise heaven on earth..they are going to choose hell.Malema will possibly become south Africa leader one day before DA.

jl115:
fvcking muppet no wonder shma schools u

You're looking for moral support.I set many academic records growing up and I was nicknamed computer in highschool

jl115:
Either you are trolling or you just fvcking ret@rded

The dream of a Boer ever ruling south Africa is a lifetime away from you

Tayser:
They talk way too much! Cant wait for the 9th to send them to oblivion. Mr Lootall talks more than 98 % of the women on Earth.
That NIGGA!!

Shut your mouth.
'Cause I'm falling asleep
Shut your mouth.
I'm falling on my seat.
All you do is talk, talk, talk too much.
You don't know when to shut up.
Shut your mouth.

You can tell a loser by how much he is berating the referee.kenya election are easy to predict with basic knowledge of our ethnic tapestry.It almost an ethnic census.Ruto know he has it in the bag

Shma:
By the time I hit your menopause age, I will be oozing out wisdom like Shakespeare. Trust the process - I'm still a young man.

Maybe but you don't have the raw materials..by class 2 I was beating the best class 8 in mathematical tables..just accept some people are gifted differently.The stuff I have done you cannot do.

Shma:
I will stop minding him. He sounds like he has some personality disorder.

TUNDRA is just an unnecessary luxury that doesn't sit well in hustlers' eyes. I don't know who is the donor of that car, but it seems the gods know that the money used in sourcing that car is unclean, that's why it's stalling everywhere. ..

The only disorder I have is that of having twice your IQ

Shma:
The emboldened sounds contradictive to your previous claim. You said you lost one bet in Kibaki vs Odinga in 2007, but I will let the lie pass. This time around, you will fail terribly. you will have to deactivate your account on 10th to save face.

I correct the parliament score and presidential vote was disputed due brazen rigging

Shma:
That was not the point. I wanted him to back up his empirical data with a link. You don't just run around with half-baked info & except people to take you seriously. But that does not mean what he posted was wrong. authentication is all I wanted - and he didn't provide it.

I have predicted all kenyan elections and referendum with precision of a skilled surgeon scalpel.In two weeks time you won't have the face to show up here

jl115:
the ANC aren't part of those coalitions my bru... Those coalitions are run successfully by opposition parties.

Also all three of South Africas major parties are led by people from minority ethnic groups, Cyril is venda, Julias is pedi and John is English.... Our political parties are not tribalistic in anyway, in fact the only party that one could consider are more a traditional ethnic party is the IFP... And how many votes did they get? In fact there are much more Zulus voting ANC and that voted for a Xhosa or Venda president than for an IFP candidate.

South Africa is not Kenya bru... Hence we don't rank as low as you in the fragility index

I know English can be a little confusing but I meant these parties unite against ANC.Once ANC is no longer a threat.They have nothing to unite against or coalesce against.Therefore you get endlessly catfights.Parliamentary systems are a dime a dozen.Kenya runs on presidential system like Nigerian or the US.Totally different systems.South Africa post ANC domination will be like Europe .. very unstable gov without the sophistry of a developed world or a kingdom

jl115:
my bru SA ain't Kenya... They ANC ain't holding anything together, we have already seen coalition governments successfully running SAs major metros like Tshwane, Joburg, Ekurhuleni ect ect

Withdraw ANC bogeyman such coalitions will not last.The incentive to unite against ANC joggernaut will be gone.ANC is giving you stability but robbing you competent leadership.Small regional or tribal parties with secretarian interest will rob you stability.That is your future as parliamentary democracy in a divided country

jl115:
cool story bro... The ANC has already lost just about every major metro and not once have we ever heard of vote rigging or unfair elections... Ever... In fact 95% of SAs believe our elections are fair and free... This is supported by WB research.

Secondly the ANC only got 45% in the previous elections.....they are polling less than 40% as we speak and basically losing and/or dropping significantly in every by election to date.... So yeah, they ain't going to be around after 2024 mate we ain't Kenya, you can't rig elections here... And as I said before our problems are mere blips, once the ANC is out of power SA will be on the path to becoming Africas South Korea

Without ANC south Africa will go Kenya way ethnic and racial politics.We had KANU before and after competitive politics we went tribal completely.Democracy in heterogeneous society accentuate division.ANC might be corrupt & incompetent but it's holding together the fabric of South Africa black tribes . What might help is your parliamentary system of government but it will become very unstable because no party will command ANC majority..so it will be annual coalitions .. unstable gov in unstable country is chaos on steroids

Kenya has improved in fragility index to 30....we use to be permanently under 20.Nigeria is no 16.South Africa doing great at 79.

jl115:
great!! So you admit Kenya is just another fvcked up African sh1thole

Say what you will about SA but our elections are one of the most fair and free in the world.....this is why our problems like load shedding and state capture are only blips in our history and said party will be voted out no questions asked

Funny enough as well is the fact that both Raila and Ruto are corrupt motherfvckers.... So it really doesn't matter who wins your country is fvcked either way.... At least in 2024 our most likely president doesn't have a single blemish to his reputation

South Africa is hellhole of runaway crime, racial divide, unemployment, immigration and now ANC corruption.The political risk of meltdown or civil war is low but xenophobia and looting remain.Kenya as promising as it is remain one of most fragile nation on account of it's ethnic politics and corruption. South Africa last had a transition in 1994..real transition..the rest has been Tanzania or China type ANC.Kenya is therefore slightly ahead.ANC is likely to rule for your entire lifetime

jl115:
you joking right

I don't joke.This stuff that makes civil war.. deputy president has promised to do zuma on the exiting president..to investigate state capture by Kenyatta & moi families and the guy know Ruto doesn't joke either.Normally the gov would be controlling the election body but this time it's Ruto who does.So gov has little legroom in rigging except now brute force of seizing election technology.The numbers don't look good for them.So the only card left is to try sabotage the election and that what they are doing now.Ruto is going to respond to sabotage by waging war.

Kikuyu, Kenya political risk of a meltdown just increased.You might want to evacuate your loved ones before it goes down.The economy unlike 2007 is limping so it won't survive a political crisis.It appears gov or uhuru aware that they losing are trying to sabotage the election.They know they are headed for a dog beating and then liquidation by Ruto.They don't have IEBC as Chair is Ruto guy and so are three other commissioners.This may go down into a civil war.Ruto is not one to backdown from a fight..he has crazy millions of young kalenjin warriors ready for war, Museveni and Salva kiir ready to assit.Within a week Kenya security forces will split into tribes.It could go down easily into civil war meltdown.We could join Ethiopia soon.Drunk Uhuru has to sober and realizes he has been beaten by smart Ruto.If he goes to ICC he will find Ruto lawyer Khan waiting for him.If you're in Kenya be careful this coming weeks and at least get a passport ready to escape to exile.https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-22-chebukati-police-confiscated-all-electronic-items-demanded-passwords-from-3-foreigners/

Shma:
In my honest opinion, Rigadthi was more vocal than Martha - but still... zero content & manifesto. He said nothing worthwhile - just pure KK swotted up ideals from Hussain. Dude can't even define state capture in his regurgitating drill... He's asked what is the price of kerosene, he answers, I don't go to the supermarket... The HELL! That dude was overdoing. Martha politely demolished him in things that require intelligence --- although, for Kenyans, they like to see and hear violence and disses... He won that!.

You are smart enough my guy, Don't celebrate nothingness... Drop any meaningful or intrinsic agenda he gave and I will join you in celebrating.

Why would anybody know the price of Kerosene?.And word of advice..try to use the English you understand.Try simple prose in old plain English until you master the language to string together something cerebral and readable

kikuyu1:
NO.JUST. NO. We don't vote for him cause he's even more untrustworthy than anyone else! You're new here and need to know some things: I'm that nigga who's ALWAYS trying new things. That guy who's perpetually, some say with some justification obsessively searching for info to see what new projects I can get into. Fyi, I'm in real estate, sugar cane ( after ToT began; in fact I told everyone here) forex and derivatives trading, agriculture, investment betting and dabbles in other ventures.
Of late I've been having a close look at the Coast, specifically Kwale where I've some land- I looked at bamboo, oil and sugar palm and settled on aquaculture, specifically catfish for its fast growth and its price of 600 shs is better than tilapia. A consultant involved in Dominion Farms in Siaya (rmbr them?) told me what happened- or rather who sabotaged them.
These guys began irrigated farming and aquaculture in 2003 revolutionizing the analog ways with their commercialised ops. SOMEONE, guess who saw them as a cashcow for his comical campaigns to reach State House and be crowned the King of Kenya. He demanded and got 100 mn in 2013. In 2017 no doubt emboldened and desperate he demanded 600 mn.
Calvin Burgess the US MD closed shop a few months later killing one of the largest employers in the region.
Your man at best is a joke, a comedian. Even with world class policy papers at his disposal ( if he could comprehend them is another story!) he'll be at best a rent seeker; the simple minded nigga who knows the price but is clueless on the concept of value.

[
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent-seeking

He could've jump started aquaculture regionally and nationally using his vote bank I admit exists : my research tells me its doable and the Phils' and Bangladesh earn billions annually. Uhuru, despite his laziness and selfcentredness least was intelligent enough to see the potential and initiated the Blue Economy.

Look at that!



https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Annual-fish-production-in-Bangladesh-over-the-last-18-years-2000-01-to-2016-17-DoF_fig1_338822344

Imagine just 20% or even half of that annually received by the millions of poor in his own L Vic support base which has the potential! Such a man shouldn't even be near the chairmanship of the village cattle dip! That story is JUST one reason I CAN'T vote for him UNDER any circumstances whatsoever.
Tbh, I'd vote for my dog FIRST- ofc you'll pretend my choice is rooted in negative ethnicity BUT that's ok.

Yes Dominion is back to being mosquito breeding ground after Raila grabbed it.The Canadian headed to Nigeria.