₦airaland Forum

Shma:
I stopped reading when saw politics is way above manyora's pay grade.
professor - UON lecturer - STRONG RESEARCHER & ANALYST. POLITICAL analyst for years!!! You're not serious bana.

Assistant professor of literature.. glorified English teacher.Election is about numbers.Mutahi ngunyi took my numbers in 2013 where I had demonstrated uhuruto were unbeatable and baptised them them tranny of numbers.You want to understand Kenya politics read Charles Hornsby ..he has written excellent books on Kenya politics and regularly blog

Azimio, understand Mt Kenya and kalenjin are at least 80 percent in 17 counties..10 in Mt Kenya, 7 kalenjin and near 40 percent in another 6-7 (Nairobi,Narok, kajiado,tranzoia, lamu with significant number in isiolo, bungoma and Mombasa) that already is 24 counties.That is more than half the counties needed to win pork.How do you beat that unless you make Martha sell.. something that has failed..then stop Ruto from being competitive in luhya, coast and even ukambani & gusii

Shma:
Absolutely.

Key takeaways:
The 4.5M Rift Valley population does not translate to Ruto's win. In fact - Ruto & Raila shares nearly equal votes in the Rift.
In mount Kenya, 5.8M does not translate to Ruto's win. Jubilee defeated Nasa in the mountain with Uhuru as the mastermind - not Ruto.
Ruto only helped Uhuru garner part of Rift valley votes( in Bomet, Nandi, elgeyo, ...those areas).
So, kikuyus are now seeing something in Azimio - with Uhuru & now Martha as the pioneers. So on the mountain, expect 40%-45% Raila votes.

The rest are AZIMIO'S strongholds & with others going 50/50. If you dispute that then you don't live in kenya.

I believe manyora and any other sober Kenyan hold the above opinion.

Rift valley population is 10m plus and it's voting block is 5.3m with kalenjin making 55 percent of it and Kikuyu follow with 20 percent then maasai and luhya and turkana the balance.. kalenjin is a huge political force that has realistic governor or deputy governor in 11 counties if you include sakaja..with potential 55 mps..Kikuyu come 2nd 9 counties as governor or deputy..in raw votes Kikuyu are joggernaut..with 4 million votes plus..and about 60 mps....luo have a chance in only four counties and are hardly 2 million registered votes..luhya 6 counties .Manyora should concentrate on writing primary school short stories.. politics is way above his pay grade .In few weeks you'll be fortunate because I broke the bad news to you earlier...Ruto is not only winning but will rout Azimio in parliament by 100 plus more mps.In 2013 jubilee won just by nicking Mt Kenya and kalenjin..scoring single digits everywhere... how do you beat Ruto who is very competitive nationally..and Mt Kenya doesn't look likely ready to trust someone they have been indoctrinated for 20yrs to hate.You will cry real tears but you will thank me for breaking the bad news this early .. otherwise I have seen people get shocked and depressed after election because they believe nonsense like 41 against 1 in 2007 or 40 against 2 in 2013...

Tayser:
Raila is incumbent and Ruto is not and politics is beyond my paygrade? No bro I think we need to check your software

Azimio key partner is jubilee and current gov...it can't run away from serious problems .. Raila himself is restrained..he is the incumbent like 2013.. and he facing Kenya best propagandist William Ruto..I pity you.Come 10th august you will change your handle here.

Tayser:
Who is running as incumbent?

Raila by some twist of fate is incumbent promising people hurting from terrible three years of economic rout a continuation because uhuru has tied his hands and legs...Ruto running as the change candidate claiming he is powerless though he is defacto deputy president.Politics is beyond your pay grade my friend.The narrative in many Kenya is clear with Azimio nothing changes nothing to look forward to...Ruto is promising to revolutionize the economy.Hustler nation propaganda will surprise you on 9th but not me..for I know Ruto is a gifted propagandist..the best ever in Kenya

Tayser:
The other side of the story is that we are on the cusp of the 3rd liberation. Kenyans having a chance to rout out two fantastically corrupt and even murderous individuals. I'd say the hustler narrative had caught steam early on but unfortunately the campaign's turned out to be boyishly premature. The latter one has caught even more steam, and unbelievably it's all down to a now famous own goal.

Anyone running as incumbent with inflation is bound to lose big.What is 3rd revolution.in fact the only thing sustaining Raila is feeling that Kikuyu kalenjin bing bong is too much otherwise he has no message . Infact because he so embolden to uhuru he promising to continue with uhuru policies.. crazy.Kenyan voters will shock you on 9th..and youll probably never show up here

Tayser:
Well I've never predicted any election wrong since 2002, including the 2007 one. Not even one. The only difference is that predicting has never been easier than 2002 and 2022. Won't run away at all. No need to because unlike you I'm not as heavily invested in a Raila win or loss.

okay champ. I will see you on the night of 9th of August..mere 40 days..as soon as 2 percent of polling station report..we can call it or early as most polling station will done before then.By 9pm of the 9th.2002 was only election I was deeply involved and this one.2002 I had lunch with Raila on 25th Dec .. Christmas Eve and election was on 29th.Narc revolution was something else.Hustler revolution is very similar.You will remember on 10th October

Tayser:
I already looked at your figures and decided not to respond because they are dazzlingly erroneous its almost demeaning wasting time deconstructing them. When you start talking of ish like MaDVD and Weta bringing Ruto half the Luhya vote or Kambas not voting as enthusiastically for Raila...Even political experts are beginning to discount people who believe that sort of unadulterated bs because they are equivalent to flat earthers and Mormons.

No prob.Unlike you though I have predicted every election to the dot since 2005 bar the disputed 2007.We shall meet on 9th.I suspect you won't show up here for sometime. I don't make careless statements..I have all opinion data, I watch key leaders move and many indicators. If you did the same ..start with excel give Raila the highest you can think he will get and share...I have challenged people..the best they come is 50% 50% about after giving Raila unrealistic figures.Again we have a month to go...and you won't show up here or will claim rigging..it will worse in parliament ..Azimio will struggle to get beyond 100mps while Kenya kwanza will have more than double..few mps to ammend the katiba.Just get excel and put your assumption on every county and share....youll discover why Raila has been hopeless four times and is headed for his final defeat.Tribal arithmetics simply don't add up.In 2013 was his best year...if he had not madvd.Jubilee scored 4 percent in western, less than 10 percent in ukambani, less than 10 percent in coast, very poorly in gusii.. everywhere people were against a Kikuyu inheriting Kikuyu..this time indicted by icc with Ruto..even Obama released a video...hii ya gachagua ni shadow..they won in first round with 50 percent.. understand the punch that mt Kenya and kalenjin packs..if you're taking few votes in Mt Kenya and loosing your stronghold you're dead on arrival

Tayser:
You talking of Kamotho, a Kalenjinized Kikuyu who once famously declared he was ashamed to be Kikuyu?? Dude. You should be equating his sorry @ss to Gachagua, someone whose fellow Kikuyu's hate with undivided passion. They both participated in the oppression of their own.

Kikuyu kalenjin will unfortunately rule Kenya for the next 20yrs or beyond due to many reasons..demographics, economic muscle and civil service system & deep state.Do you know kalenjin are a million plus more than luos..2019 census kalenjin were 6.4m versus Luo 5 million..add Subas..and it's a million plus.kikuyus have I think 60 elected mps with kalenjin at 55..that is already 120mps..if you add women mps it almost there to run Parliament.Luo and luhya are barely 30 mps .Get excel and do the maths...I can help you with 2009 census tribal breakdown of top 3 tribe in each county...Raila has no path to victory.Not when he loosing half luhya votes.

Predicted.

Just40:
keep arguing
Good luck arguing facts

Your country total consumption is half of Ghana

When? This must have been when you redonimated the cedis from 50,000 to a dollar to 1 to dollar. As we speak Cedis is now at 6.60.

Your middle class cannot be at South Africa level

jl115:
Shot
@$5.50 a day

SA: 56.9%
Ghana: 55.1%
Kenya: 86.6%
Nigeria: 92%

Usual Madness.
https://dangotecement.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/DangoteCement_FY2020_ResultsStatement.pdf
During the year of 2020, the construction industry and the cement market in Ghana witnessed an increase in demand owing to a rise in government infrastructure projects. Private domestic consumption also continues to grow. We estimate the total market for cement to have been over 6.7Mt for the full year.23 Mar 2021

Just40:
see how I've silenced him


Basically his country is doing half of Ghana consumption and he won't make the Nigerians rest..


Ghana has the highest per Capita cement consumption in Sub Saharan Africa at 390kg and Ghana is the largest Clinker importer in Africa.

World bank figures have link and year - etc. That 37% sound like kenya poverty line. I think extreme/absolutely poverty is half of that
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1227076/extreme-poverty-rate-in-kenya/

jl115:
I honestly don't know where you get your figures:

World Bank poverty figures: @ $1.90 a day

South Africa: 18.7%
Kenya: 37.1%
Nigeria: 39.1%

Pre-COVID projection of Kenya economy - GDP was to hit 200B dollar (if Kshs-USD was to hold steady) in 2025 - we lost one year - so in 2026

Usual madness from a country that does 4 million - Kenya does that in four months or less now.

Just40:
Now you guys can end the cement debate

they can't even produce 10 million tonnes of cement to even think of consuming 10 million tonnes

The irony here is the fact that everyone knows that Kenya population is 54 million except Kenyans

Seeking group support? Kenya monthly cement consumption is trending towards a million metric tonnes. 3 million in 2022 will be done in 3 months.

896825 Tonnes in August of 2021

theenchanter:
that one na liar na.

17 percent of kenya live in extreme or absolute poverty. This international poverty line of about 2 dollars a day a person.
40 for Nigeria.

Now when we talk poverty - they are many types of poverty - and measures - even in developed country - someone earning less than 20K dollars a year is poor and receive a food stipend.

theenchanter:
no, comrade. It's absolute number. U ain't dealing with ur fellow dumb compatriots here.

Evidence of your almajiri miseducation. The rate already mean per capita has been factored.

theenchanter:
easy, comrade. Here's ur earlier submission. Don't come here with another rants.

in other words, ur poverty rate is worse because ur poverty rate is more than 4x ours.

And if it's by %, u're still worse cos urs is higher.

C'est fini.

We are nearly 30 percent up from 2020 - simple extropolation

theenchanter:
so, did ur chart proved u consume 10m tonnes?

Many types of poverty -absolute poverty - Nigeria rate (it taken care of per capita) - is 40 percent - and kenya is 17 percent - in short you're nearly three times poorer.

theenchanter:
should we now agree that ur poverty rate is worse than Nigeria's?

We're at 83m while u're at 23m. I believe ours is not 4x of urs.

Almajiri graduate heckling as always.

https://www.knbs.or.ke/download/2021-quarter-3-gdp-report/

theenchanter:
this man is a verified mad man, I swear. see classic denial.

Just go and sin no more sha.

Of course - If you have 100 million people in absolute poverty like you do - we should have less than 20million kenyans living in absolute poverty to be better than you.

theenchanter:
so in other words, if we're doing bad, as long as it's not 4x of yours, we're better, right?

Kenya cement consumption rose to highest in 2016 - about 6.7m - then it got into rough patch with interest rate caping - making banks unwilling to lend - it started around there - 6.5 - 6.6m - until 2019 when it rose again - and last year I bet it exceeded 10m. I think by 3rd Q - it was already 9m metric tonnes.

theenchanter:
but u didn't read where it was stated that "from last year"? That is the report is an 18month data, last year + 1st half.

Ur all time cement consumption record is 6.7m tonnes when u're constructing the nairobi- Mombasa rail line. From the same data. So how can u be consuming more cement than ur highest record?

https://www.constructionkenya.com/2176/cement-consumption-kenya/

Precisely to be worse than us - you need to be four times worse - otherwise you'll be better.

GeneralDae:
what an argument. By your logic, I could also say if we are poor, we should be 4 times more. If we have unproductive individuals everywhere, we should be 4 times more .

Why waste time with Kenya figures when I have them on my finger tips.

GeneralDae:
Kenyan cement consumption and production was 3.5 million and 3.3 million in the first half of 2021, not 5 million.

Last year but one it was 8.5M. Last year it will top 10M. We are expecting the final figures of 2021 anytime soon. But we already know half year we were nearly at 5m.

theenchanter:
post it.

They are valid all the time. You not only have to beat us - but you have to beat us 4 times - to be ahead. To merely beat us - is not good enough. Unless you are happy with just enough. If you're building roads - I expect you to do 4 times more. If you are building schools - I expect to see 4 times more - just to reach our level.

theenchanter:
they're only valid when it favour u but invalid when it doesn't is my point.

U can see the jinn called another country "tiny" simply because they have bigger GDP per Capita than them.

See you want to lie so shamelessly like a typical Nigeria. Kenya half year - six month - cement consumption that you quoted was nearly 5M. That mean end of year it will be 10M.

Al-majiri graduate just concentrate on heckling - you cannot win an intellectual argument here.

theenchanter:
ur cement consumption rate is roughly 5m, Nigeria's cement consumption rate is roughly 21m.

When it comes to imported cars, I don't want to believe u'll want to ply that route..... With money supply ratio.

don't start what u can't finish and stop projecting ur stupidity here.

They are both valid arguments. The South African has been trying to ramp through your thick head and you dont get it. If we compare ourself to Rwanda - with about 1/5 of our populaton - we might beat them everywhere - or even Mauritus - or Botswana - but everyone knows in some aspect they are miles ahead.

theenchanter:
u don't understand Kenyans psyche. When they argue and they're not favoured by the argument, the resort to "it's ur huge population" mantra. Like is it huge population that asked Kenya to have the same registered company with Lagos, a state in Nigeria?

But when it gets to "per Capita" things or "number of people living in poverty" things, it's not about population again, but the dysfunction of the country.

Werey ni won na.

Forget about crap from Nigeria stats office.
Those ar ediiots who estimate that Nollywood and such nonsense were big part of your economy
Give me the figures from your Central Bank.
Total Bank Assets
Money Supply - M1, M2, M3

GeneralDae:
Our total financial sector was 122.3 trillion naira, (293 billion dollars) as at 2019. Our banking sector was 42.6 trillion naira from that. Can you give me the records for the total financial sector of Kenya (which includes fintech)?

Kenya uses it to validate and verify their estimates. I dont question data from South Africa or Morocco. But clearly your crazy figures starting from agricluture is questionable.

Always remember GDP is an estimation of the size of economy.

Pseudo-data - are things are how many cars did Nigeria import versus Kenya - cement consumption - money supply (M1, M2, M3) - etc etc

theenchanter:
who used pseudodata? U? Would u even believe ur self on such?

You missed in first-half of the year. Times two those figures.

theenchanter:
while u're correct about Nigeria's cement consumption, u're deceitful about Kenya's. Without much research, ur cement consumption rate is roughly 5m.