₦airaland Forum

4Play:
I have seen this household budget analogy deployed by "BMC" activists but it is crass, fatuous and utterly benighted. It plays on the short memory, dissonance and naivete of the average Nigerian. Here is why:

The Nigerian government's spending obligations are largely Naira denominated and dominated by recurrent expenditure (payroll expenses and interest payment on Naira denominated bonds). If the price of a barrel of crude oil falls from $100 to $50, assuming (for the sake of simplicity) that this leads to halving of government oil revenue, the impact would be moderated by the exchange rate effect. By allowing the exchange rate to fall from N160/$1 to N305/$1, the government is able to meet much of its salary/bond payments without breaking much sweat because workers and bond investors are paid in Naira.

If oil revenue previously yielded $20bn, the FG would be able to spend N3.2 trillion (at a rate of N160/$1). If oil revenue halved to $10bn, the FG would be able to spend N3 trillion (at a rate of N305/$1). The exchange rate effect acts as a strong cushion re the government's budget against the deleterious effects of an oil revenue collapse. Interestingly, when NOI was queried by the opposition in 2013 as to why she preferred to borrow in Naira rather than in foreign currency (the latter attracts lower interest rate), this point was made and we debated it in the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/1563336/must-read-reps-50-questions/2#20372749.

So your household budget analogy is misleading. The government's revenue doesn't fall by 70% - its dollar income does fall significantly but little of the government's expenditure is dollar denominated. But the impropriety of the analogy doesn't end there. You ignore that only 60-70% of the government's revenue is oil derived. There are a range of taxes - Income tax, VAT, Corporation tax, e.t.c. - that are not derived from oil.

We also ignore the elephant in the room (this is where my reference to short memories and dissonance arises). We were told that the previous government was stealing a huge chunk of the oil revenue (have we forgotten Sanusi's $20bn allegation?). If the previous government was stealing significant proportions of the oil revenue, the mere fact of having a new and more honest government should offset some of the downside of the oil income collapse. Sanusi's claim was that oil export proceeds were not being remitted back to Nigeria. Surely, there would be some upside now that those proceeds are being remitted.

Overall, the argument citing the collapse of oil revenue as an excuse belies all we have been told about the wanton theft of the GEJ government vs the honesty/uprightness of the Buhari government. It ignores basic understanding/knowledge of how exchange rate depreciation works to protect a government whose spending is largely denominated in its local currency. It is a tedious and ignorant argument which should be read its last rites by the BMC crew and all Buhari apologists. Find another argument that doesn't insult our intelligence.

Actually you sounded like a university professor of business studies who is teaching his students how best to run a business but he has never sold N5 pure water in his life talk less of having chains of businesses.

All these years previous government, experts and the current regime have been telling us that crude oil constitute about 90% of Nigeria source of income which informed the outcry for diversification, so where did you get 60% - 70% just to support your argument? I see.

You also failed to understand that what affect the oil sector affects all other sectors since it constitute about 90% of the financial back bone.
You stated that federal govt expenses are naira denominated and you are sighting payroll, is it only fed govt that spend money in this country? what of the private sector including transportation that almost everything is imported? Why did you centered your argument on only fed govt? why can't you widen you mind to see the bigger picture? do you know how much was spent before now to import only rice into this country? do you know how much state govt are spending to import agric machineries? Your argument is so narrow that your neglected the entire private sector that import far more than the fed govt such as the aviation industry, constructions firms, the manufacturing sector that import almost all of their hardwares sourcing dollars from the govt.
Widen your mind include all other sectors without restricting yourself to govt pay roll, how much is govt even spending on salaries that warrant you to use that as an example? For your information govt employed from fed to local may not be up to 3 million out of about 170 million so please widen your mind and reproduce your argument.
And to assist you, note that the private sector is far larger and import far larger that govt... The amount used in importing food into this country by companies and individuals every day is in billions of dollars and govt is the main source of the dollar.Don't forget the manufacturing sector medical field, the aviation industry and many others.
The exchange rate your are stressing in your argument does not favour our import economy.

odogwubiafra:
Let me take you on some points you raised, you said that;

1) That the nosedive in price of crude oil was SUDDEN. There is a missing link between your analysis and the real situation. This fall in crude oil price was part of their campaign, when Tam David West opined that petroleum pump price would have sold N40 if Buhari was in power. So they ought to have believed and worked their modalities towards making their projection real.

2) That your wife and your children will insist on as it was in the beginning.. Yes, when it is only their expense line that were affected. Buhari could not afford nomination form, but now could afford to go on medical treatment abroad for over a month, with blood transfusion, all expenses paid in pounds. And you still believe the change begins with us and not him.

Thanks for your argument but let me take you on your points.

1 I think also there is a mix up in your statement, I want to believe that they couldn't have campaigned on crude oil but may be refined products because there is no way Nigeria can regulate the price of crude oil because it is determined by the international market. West made his prediction on the premise that the price of crude and other variables will remain as they were and of course west may be an expert in that field but certainly not an authority. But assuming that they promised to sell PMS at N40 and after taking over reality changes do you expect them to sell at that price. Again to my earlier analogy supposing that you promised to buy your wife a brand new car from money you will save next year from your salary and unfortunately your salary drops by 80% few month later will you still go ahead with that promise?

2. you stated yes that your family should insist if only it is their expense line that is affect, that is even though their expense line is over 200% your salary? Do you know why many men died leaving their families? is because many wanted to do what their salaries could not do even through magic. The family that insist on getting what they have been getting even though the financial realities changing are happy to see their daddy dead.
3 Your argument on BUHARI going out for medical treatment is very funny, you mean he should remain here and die, do you really think about the implication? Your argument is more or less a natural hatred which may not be found even among pagans. And if you are a Christian Jesus said that pray for your enemies and those who hate you and that if your enemy is hungry feed him, and is tasty give him water to drink.

Except you drop sentiments and see things as they are you may not have peace of mind and for you to say a family should insist on having what was given to them even when the financial status dropped by over 80% really speak volumes about who you are.

kynbasil01:
this shows that what you have up there is not brain.. it's rather a mucous

And the Person that has the brain is the one that is complaining of recession, hardship and poverty. loll the brain is meant for critical thinking and I don't want to believe that your brain is that of lower animals. What I have up there according to you is not brain but all those things you are complaining about including recession poverty and the likes can never one near me.

Willie2015:
It is not as simple as this. The cost of running business in Nigeria is extremely high.
I have some buses plying some routes and I know for a fact that it is not easy to run a business. Cost of basic car parts had doubled with increasing maintenance cost. Most SMEs are out of business while many will continue to do so if this administration continue on this path.

Check the result of companies quoted on the NSE, all of them are groaning as a result of inflation pressure, reduced consumer disposable income, Naira Devaluation and High Energy cost. These are factors that also affect the Agric sector.

I cannot encourage any young entrepreneur to start business during this recession period, it is better to keep your capital in Treasury Bills,Bonds and earn 17% annual yield than lose your capital in the name of doing business.

Just my opinion

If you are saying you will not advise young entrepreneurs to start any business during recessing is like you have accepted defeat and that is very very wrong. Whether you agree or not there are countless opportunities in every recession. There are a lot of people making money in this recession, what you need is the ability to be able to identify opportunities. One major problem is that many people in this country go into business without any business plan. Ask somebody why he or she is into a particular trade or business he will tell you is because he likes the business or he likes selling the product, not neccessarilry because he has identified a huge stream of customers looking for that product.. For God sake why should somebody get up and start selling shoes because he loves shoes not because he has identified tasty customers for that brand of shoes?

If you leave in a city try and locate a subburb near that city and see the lifestyle of the so called masses and owners of SMEs, the little profit they make in a day is spent on drinking beers, parties and unnecessary events.
You discourage young people from going into business and you talk about treasury bills and bonds, how long do you thing it will take for a beginner or young entrepreneur to make money that can never be over taken by inflation through treasury bills or bonds?

I have seen people with N100,000 and less rushing to buy stocks, for God sake how long will it take such people to make reasonable money?. I will only advice the middle and the lower class to buy shares only if they don't have anything to do with that money. Shares or stocks are for the rich. I had a colleaque in those days who bought Zenith bank shares worth N50,000 and after a year he was given N300 dividend and that same year I went into buying and selling just N20,000 worth of pure water and within 2 weeks I made a profit of N10,000 while my colleaque made only N300 in a year for investing N50,000 and that is what you are advising young entrepreneurs to do.

Though you encourage people not to start any business but I am telling you there are a lot of small business that can fetch a lot of money. If you are from the East where palm oil is produce in huge quantity for instance I will tell you that pure palm oil is not only a hot cake but gold highly needed in Abuja, somebody can leave the East in the morning with the product to Abuja and return the following day. There are many of these kind of businesses yet you are here discouraging people.

I think one other problem is that people don't want to start small they want to go into business today and tomorrow be in the same class with Dangote, it doesn't work like that

omo1010:
Crude price is currently above $50 which is more than what was budgeted, yet Nigerians are not feel any positive impact. Obj ran this country with less than $30 per barrel, managed the effect of the global economic crisis without plunging Nigeria to this type of unprecedented hardship. What we have now is offshoot of bad economic decisions that are not peoples' friendly. Truth has to e told, instead of defending this gross maladministration which is neither good for PMb nor his administration, because history will not e kind to this regime

Yea truth has to be told, Obj took over when the price was far below $30 and it climbed up so it was easy for him, Obj did not experience any shock in terms price decline. When d price nose dived during this regime is like a man who was running smoothly on a flat land and suddenly sinks into a deep hole, if you expect things to be the same with that man is wrong. Let me use another analogy, assuming you are employed and your salary is N100 per month from there you give your wife N30 for feeding. N40 you pay children school fees you give N10 each to your two children for pocket money and save N10.

Then suddenly your employer without any notice reduce your salary to N30 per month and after explaining to your wife and kids, your wife still insist you most maintain same standard of leaving as before, you most give her N30 for feeding as you used to when things were fine and that your kids most be left in the same school because she doesn't want the neighbours to laugh at her. Your kids also insisted that you most give them same amount of pocket money as you used to and also save N10 as usual will that be fear to you?

ephi123:
In case you've not noticed, I don't trade words with Hausas who are supporting the government for their own selfish reasons. You can also change your moniker to northpole while you are at it, be proud of who you are Those in the know who bought currency at a fraction of the going rate will also say they "spotted an opportunity"

I trade words with people living in the real world experiencing what is on ground. Eod.

Those who bought the currency at the fraction you stated and did not make it are suffering from the first infections of the habitual complainants (lack of critical thinking) when it comes to investment such like currency trading, you buy or sell when it is the right time not just because people are buying or selling and you rush and do same ,NO. sorry bros you unknowingly touched my field, I trade forex. And as I stated before, I only come here after making my money. I made money today because the GBP/USD traded up, and I new the exact time to enter and exit the market, that is critical thinking and analysis.

ephi123:
[s][/s]

Crossing them shows that you have those inffections but don't know that you have them that is even a pathetic situation.

ephi123:
It's not your fault. People who are being spoonfed have no clue how an economy is run. Continue typing theories online.

Pele.

Habitual complainants have 4 chronic infections .
1. lack of critical thinking
2. Inability to identify opportunities
3. fear of the unknown
4. Chronic laziness.
If you have such infections, well sorry, is like what doctors called damnation.

ephi123:
Economically viable in an economy that is virtually dead? Hilarious.

An economy where the price you buy an item today is vastly different from what it will be next week.
An economy where inflation is in double digits.
An economy foreign investors have fled.
An economy with companies folding up and the labour market continually rising.

Those who work the work see opportunities in every happening but those who have taken complaint as hobby will never ever imagine there exist any opportunity even if it is presented to then in a lay man's language.

if prices are going higher like in food stuff it is an opportunity for you to key into the value chain and get your own share.
If foreign investors are leaving it is an opportunity for you to key in, by the way foreign investors are here primarily to make money not to build your economy. when the Chinese that are coming here for instance to export our cassava, ginger and other raw materials leave, then key in and start a small export business in the area they are leaving.

Please stop wasting a lot of your time in naira land posting complaints and frustration. Some of us only come here after making our money everyday and only if we don't have anything doing.



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seguno2:
Is that why we have prices of everything rising?
Is that why the exchange rate is over N400 from the N200 that they complained was not good enough?
Is that why Buhari is always in London for treatment when he has not traveled elsewhere to waste our scarce foreign exchange?
Is that why we are in recession from the prosperity that was handed over to him two years ago?
Is that why he and his minister plus his girlfriend were hiding $43 million in Ikoyi?
Oya, talk we dey listen.

You are sounding so frustrated, if pple like you will intelligently redirect your energy to doing something economically viable it will help in bringing down these prices you are complaining about.

kynbasil01:
how? Has he impacted on the life of any Nigerian positively?

Wait for Government to do everything for you while you do nothing and you will die so ratchet.

ijustdey:
why didn't the previous government collapse at least TSA wasn't in use as at those times

Because the price of crude oil was still high far above the 30 dollar it fell to during this regime. Where did you keep your primary school addition and subtraction?

Legitbaba:
Nigerians lazy?? Hausa's are hard working, Igbos are even more hard working....Yorubas or Ijaws aren't lazy too... Fulani's?? I don't know about any more hard work than walking long distances just to rare cows....
Nigerians are hard working...we are not just being treated fairly by the ruling class, though that would soon come to an end

I think the problem is that our hard work is NOT intelligently directed and focused. How can someone trek from Sokoto to OSUN state just to rear cattle instead of keeping the cattle in one place and used the energy expended in trekking for other economically gainful engagements? Also it baffles me when I see people rushing to learn how to establish and operate a business from a professor who had not sold anything in his life talk less of owning chains of businesses?

fratermathy:
So from your explanation now, this picture below was gotten from a book cover or a church poster? Can you provide any single source where she may have gotten the photo from?

https://buzznigeria.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Johnson-Suleiman-and-Stephanie-Otobo-Saga.jpg

Kindly reply please since you know so much about how Su-LAIR-man's private picture can turn up on the Internet.

As I stated earlier there are uncountable ways you can get someone's pictures not only from book cover or church poster and in this case I am not saying the lady is right or wrong but she needs to convinced us beyond any doubt. Now did you asked yourself why the background and the immediate surroundings of this your picture is hidden or not shown to the public? has forensic analysis been carried out on this your pic by experts? Coming to your argument that UBA has not come out to deny the so called bank statement she published, I know of someone who worked in a school where school fees are paid in a UBA school account. To defraud the school the man went to UBA and picked a bundle of deposit slips which are usually dropped at the counter for customers' use, he also went and cut a professional UBA stamp and was collecting school fees from unsuspecting parent under the pretext of helping them pay their wards school fees since they don't always seem to have time. This man was filling and stamping the bank tellers and giving them to the parents who thought their wards school fees were being paid without knowing that the man was using their money building houses and given them faked tellers. UBA can only say something when it is invited by a competent court of law when a litigation is initiated so the fact that the bank has not say anything does not mean that the published bank statement is authentic. Somebody could have been used to deposit money into that account using the name Johnson Suleiman that will not mean that it was the Suleiman in question that deposited the money. It is only when an objective, systematic and scientific investigation is carried out that we will all draw conclusions, until then I cannot say whether what the Lady is claiming is true or false. As it is said in the legal parlance a man is not guilty until proven.

fratermathy:
Sometimes you should think. Yorubas would say "ronu"!

She returned to Canada, got a new device, logged in with BBID, recovered messages saved on BES and Blackberry Backup. This also explains why the time is in the present.

She released her statement of account showing UBA official stamp. I hope you are aware that UBA can even lock her up immediately for that? Has UBA refuted the said document yet?

As for the BBM chat, there are two timelines here: one is from when they initially started, hence the Canadian network (Fido) showing there. The others are from when things went sour, hence the Etisalat (she was presumably in Nigeria then as her story also confirms).

The FaceTime screenshot she shared has been authenticated already so it's old news but even if it was fake, WHERE DID SHE GET HIS PICTURES FROM? I searched for Su-LAIR-man's pics online and couldn't see any that featured in the FaceTime chats and even these BBM DPs.

Even Su-LAIR-man has not denied any of these claims, he only deflected them. He's busy running from pillar to post doing media control, further making him ridiculous. He should just shut up and go to the sidelines if he doesn't want to confess YET. I emphasised "yet" because he would eventually do that whether he likes it or not.

Why am I surprised you can't piece together the puzzle? Sheep aren't known for being very bright. Even if a video is released, you guys will come out and shout that it was videoshopped! Some of you are asking for pictures of both of them together. If that is released today, you will come and say it is also photoshopped. Finally, you guys' opinion on this matter won't change the glaring facts. After all, you are the ones that also lied that Otobo went to Auchi to confess when that was also a lie! Like "apostle", like sheeple.

As for Su-LAIR-man, better go and confess your evildoings. Your media crew and defenders are only making things worse for you. Silly defences such as these reveal that they are ready to be blinded forever. Imagine him telling those who "contemplated believing" the scandal to knock themselves from "stupidity"! Later he threatened that anyone who criticises him or any pastor would have his/her life cut short. What a pastor!

If any of you sheeple dare quote/mention me to say rubbish, I will ridicule you and the man that you worship further.

Your argument about Suleiman's picture made me to doubt your argument. I am neither supporting him nor among those crucifying him except that I am interested in reading critical thinking arguments. The fact that Google does not have his pictures in its search engine does not mean that it can not be found anywhere. By the way Google and all other search engines and directorates do not contain everything except those uploaded by humans. Suleiman has written many booklets and other print materials that carry his pictures both on the cover and inside which anybody can scan and use, there are thousands of his church posters with his photographs pasted in some major cities in Nigeria which can also be extracted. Also anybody cab snap him with a camera during church service or programme like is very common in Nigeria... there are so many ways to get his photograph please.

zinnywonders:
Really! Oya clap for yourself..... so consuming of food and juice is something special right? I guess u ain't blind to see Bassey has more potential than ur so called boring Bally a.k.a juice consumer and Debbie_Rise has the highest vote.. . Lolz.... I no blame u cos u will think lyk ur boo boo gbagam!

which debbe- rise has highest? go and check d votes again, is it because she was called first? may be ebuka did what u could have done

zinnywonders:
Honestly, I didn't see this coming ooo.. thought that Bally will be leaving tonight cos he has nothing to offer jare!

He has something special to offer Northerners for your information, if you are supprised that he came first go and put on a thinking cap. His style is that of an average ntherner and we love it. He does not need to appear almost naked or continuously lick female lips b4 he can be said to have something to offer

idris4r83:
Wake me up when the dollar is less than N200

I will wake you up when it goes down to N150 when Good luck took over from Yar' Adua

nwakibie3:
Does the president has the power to reject whomever the NJC recommends to him?

Yes if he is found wanting, such as engaging in acts that are detrimental to national security, that is why the NJC must recommend someone without blemish. Don't also forget that the person so recommended must pass security vetting by the SSS and likewise senate screening. If such person is found wanting can be rejected and the NJC will make a new recommendation.

nwakibie3:
I will tell u since u don't knw


The Federal Judicial Service Council, FJSC, forwards names of the most senior Justices of the Supreme Court to the National Judicial Council, NJC, for consideration.
The NJC is required to consider the the names sent by the FJSC and recommend one of them to President for appointment and subject to confirmation by the Senate..
Mostly, the tradition allows the most senior Justice to succeed which was why Onnoghen emerged. And this is also the procedure in appointing the supreme court judges.

I was thinking you will state that either the federal judicial service council or the National Judicial Council has the power or the chief justice of the federation has the power to appoint, I was disappointed to see you talking about recommendation to the president. If they are fully independent let them go ahead to appoint without recommending to the president. For you to say that INEC should appoint national commissioners because it is independent then the judiciary should also do same since you think that being independent is literal.

nwakibie3:
Are judiciary and legislative not independent So tell me, do they source for their own money for their salaries and not collect allocation from govt

So who appoint the chief justice of the Federation and other supreme court judges is it the judiciary an independent arm of govt or the president? To say an agency is independent may not necessary be literal.

Tonymegabush1:
Why should the federal government nominate inec Rec officials, inec is an independent body they should be allowed to act independent

INEC should source for it own money to pay staff salaries, run the office and conduct elections and not collect allocation from govt because it is independent

coolitempa:
Soon the onikuje of Kuje prison will convert to Islam..... ...his brain is gradually being reset...

May be to enable him adopt terrorism to achieve Biafra as it is not allow in christianity

weedtheweeds:
Nigeria needs to change the country's name from Nigeria to Benueria. The blood spilled on the River Niger during the Biafra/Nigeria civil war keeps holding the country back. The name has to be changed for this country to move forward. All corners of the world the name Nigeria strikes fear in the hearts of people. The name is a stigma to us and posterity. To me, i would advise every state to become a country. Lagos is bigger than Togo, Plateau is bigger than many countries in land mass.
change our currency and change our country's name. The name is tarnished already. We are stigmatized and profiled everywhere because of our country.

It is not the name of the country that matters but the attitudes of the people of that country, if you like change Nigeria to any name as long as the attitudes of the people remain the same the profiling and stigma will stii be there. A poisonous substance by any name still remain poisonous even if you decide to call it honey.

Raphael81:
Started by Jonathan almost completed by zbuharideen, just like Attah initiated good things and Akpabio completed them...

Sorry this is FCT project is different from the Federal Govt project, the project was initiated by FCTmanagement to serve the city

102

Please I work with a government agency that monitor some of these items, may I know which market or super market this garri is sold? If anyone has an idea pls let me know. Thanks

The United African States claimed to be a Government not a company or organisation, its current president is one Brimmy OLAGHERE ( prof ) . The concept is to collapse African Countries into one Country to be known as United African States just like United States of America with Abuja as the capital city. The concept was initiated by African leaders summit in 2010. Presently, UAS has its own constitution different from Nigeria constitution, as stated earlier it is an acclaimed Government fusing Africa into one Country. According to the President the United African State day is coming up in March 2017 and general election to produce its first elected president is coming up in 2020.

damagepbuh:
U see wat am saying now u are saying dat northerners are better
Why is Nigeria today in d world map for terrorism
Which side of d country is responsible
I guess they are ibos too
No matter wat southerners do with drugs northerners have painted nigeria blacker dan any other side

Don't forget that militancy is an act of terrorism. Terrorism basically means a premeditated act of violence which involved unlawful use of force by a group against another or against a government or a state. sponsored by an individual, a group or state. You will agree that bokoharam is fighting against the state and militants are also fighting against the state and both groups employ the used of violence and both have killed. IPOB will soon gradaute to a terrorist group just like bokoharam when it ( ipob) begin to carry weapons to fight the state. So you see terrorism is not only in the north, the only difference is the size of sponsorship which determined the magnitude of violence.

mightyhazell:
well,dose in the south prefer hawking aand handcrafts to suicide bombings and beheading pple because book is haram

Where did you push kidnapping, armed robbery, drug pushing, yahoo yahoo, 419, cultism etc to?

damagepbuh:
Are u serious?? Am talking of 1914 u re talking of 1960. Cant i be sarcastic again. And moreover did i blame any tribe here?
I am not a tribal bigot, i say things d way they are. I dnt care watever tribe u come from, but nigeria is soo incompatible dats wat i want u to see.
Instead of putting our heads together to find a way to stop d way nigerians are disgracing themselves we are busy calling Igbos, afonjas and abookis. For God's sake the international community call them nigerians

If 1914 was a mistake, 1960 was a golden opportunity to correct the mistake if it was trully a mistake

EmeeNaka:
Nobody will stop North from tapping oil in their land if there is any. It's just that it seems there is not oil in commercial quantity there. Buhari may be wasting the scarce resources Nigeria has for a wild goose chase.

The oil in the south was not explored in one day nor one year neither in Niger Republic, let wait and see what happened at d end of exploration