₦airaland Forum

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-24/oil-s-meltdown-crushes-independent-crude-pruducers-in-nigeria?__twitter_impression=true

Nigerian lenders also threatened due to $8 billion exposure
Prolonged low crude prices risk sparking a banking crisis


The rout has been bad for all the country’s producers but the pain has been particularly acute for the independents who mostly acquired assets about six years ago. Unlike oil majors operating in the country, whose average cost of producing is about $22 a barrel, these companies need between $35 to $40 a barrel if they are to stay in business.

Big Debts

Nigeria’s independents pump roughly 400,000 barrels a day out of the nation’s average daily output of about 2 million. However, they account for almost 90% of the 3 trillion naira, or $8 billion, of all debts owed by companies producing oil in Nigeria, mostly of it to local banks. While a portion of the loans are hedged at as much as $50 a barrels, the bulk aren’t, raising the risk of a default that’s been exacerbated by the threat of production halts because of the dire state of the market.

The oil price crash has also had an impact on the Nigerian banking industry, where at least a third of all loans were made to the nation’s oil drillers, according to central bank data. Many say their customers are hedged, even if the full extent of that protection is unclear.

Nigerian lenders are carefully reviewing the situation. A prolonged low-price regime may even trigger a full blown banking crisis, said Aderonke Akinsola, banking analyst at Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham.

“We expect banks to proactively restructure vulnerable oil and gas facilities and we believe they will also take advantage of the regulatory forbearance given by the central bank to cushion the impact of weaker assets,” she said. If prices stay below $30 for as long as six months, then “we cannot rule out the possibility that some banks may not survive that.”

veecovee:
heyyyyy ... only chibu... can behave like u

Where una come send Chibu go now

Justcul:
Yeah a second moniker

No ways!!!

Check my old mentions I had with Chibuking...when he was shouting Bonanza last year

Na this monicker... I dey use from SMN days to NSEMPA...to Trading view.

When Yariya see me for Trading view with same monicker she was shocked.

Person dey big pass something.

veecovee:
Seems this fellow has the blood of chibu... Oh !! Queen

pastor no kee me with laugh

pluto09:
There are merits in some of your posts but you should refrain from repeating yourself and be less assertive about your predictions.

This is not to say that some of the people who have castigated you here are not guilty of the same thing they are accusing you of.
I can bet you if someone keeps posting about how the market will go up and break out now ,they will not see any problem with that....that is called double standard.

Make your analysis and bear it in mind that anybody could be wrong

Well said

thesilentone:
You're pointing out something that is easy to spot but his biases will kick in to sensationalise. Point scoring and winning an argument is important to him than objectivity.

Don't worry I take more corrections than throw tantrum and insult people in a faceless forum

The problem is most people want to be lied to here...so they are blinded by their search for N1 gain and end up with loosing more funds.

The months ahead will clear their doubts.

DrAwo:
Check the date on that tweet by Donald Trump... Was posted in Sept 2019...

Seen it...how about current price of Brent?

Thinkbigga:
We've heard. But remember when you predicted that chams will hit N1 and how that prediction went? We know those with good track record when it comes to predictions. But all sides of the analysis are welcome.

If I enter a stock and it goes wrong...I own it
And when I exit I make it clear

Good to see you have changed into another monicker

Trump that posted about an oil deal is now posting Plenty of Oil

Oil price crashing... We expect more devaluation in coming months...more borrowing even as our ratings become junk!

In businessday papers today governors are predicting that FAAC allocation for States in June will be zero

The only argument is that some see all this downtrend for the year, but still believe the NSE is going up!


And I ask , go to where ?

My Punishment:

I would live rent free in their heads throughout the year...every time their portfolio goes down by 10%

Good morning

* You play long term yeah yeah...but you are more interested in a stock gaining N1 that you over look all fundamentals that point to a downtrend.

You go dey alright las las

onegentleguy:
@stcool u don't know and u probably will never know !!
But I understand why u are a bit anxious nowadays. ...and believe me, I feel for u.

Don't worry, beginning tonight, I have just instructed @ VCV and his fellow pastors to go on a month long prayer and fasting to help u get the price of FBNH @ N1 or even 45k.
Infact, I besieged them to assist u in ur dream and spirit realm, so u can also get the likes of GTB @ N2.1, ZENITH @ N1.5, UBA @ 90k, DANGOTE CEMENT @ N4, NESTLE @ N7 and even the NSE ALL-SHARE INDEX @ N1,850 ONLY !!


U are RIGHT !! ...completely RIGHT. I made extremely negative returns in UACN and every other coy.
So NO point for further exchange.

@veecovee and other pastors, pls take note and see to the part in bold !!

Like I said...only a few here I take their word

Not someone like you that would write an epistle just to draw people to your luggage.

I don't take you serious!

onegentleguy:
My dear @stcool indeed we've made great returns from UACN. 2 very good ones !!
...with 80% holding sold 1st from N4.60 to N8.7(following my 1st call when it hit a yr low of N4.5) and AGAIN from N6.5 to N10.95(following a reversal before it hit the high of N11+)
I used the word "we" because I also made money for 4 other folks I manage their portfolio selling at near and slightly above those prices for some. 2 of the persons I manage their portfolio are even members here. But they're boses who prefer to observe things from the side line.

I would've put up 1 or 2 link as prof but I dont wish to convince u...
If u have eyes, u can dig past post to see certain clues.

Our current 20% portfolio weighting for UACN is still at a good BEP cushion.
...and yes, we are waiting for price to fall.
That doesn't mean that we do not currently hold losing position in 1 or 2 other coys, but definitely not UACN. ...and overall, we are still in a very healthy portfolio position.

U seem a bit frustrated. Could it be because of the heightened tension of waiting for the likes of ZENITH @ N9 and FBNH @ N1?
Don't worry, it will come for u by the end of the yr, and we will still join u then(if it does happen)
Pls don't cry me a river.
Am sorry for given u advice. ...I take it back !!

Continue in your imaginary world of profit...those you deceived to mop up @N9 are weeping...

You are still encouraging them to load more at N7 with hope of hitting a jackpot

You refused to acknowledge your mistake even when it was pointed out that you are towing the line of O&O

But what do I know...your money...my opinion!

Selah

onegentleguy:
So if before then(by the end of the yr as u put it), some investors have made great returns from the said stocks u mentioned(and even more), u would come here to highlight that ur assertion had come true because they trade for the low of those prices by then?
That means ur someone who focuses only price dynamics and none on arbitrage value accretion.
With ZENITH, some folks have circled btw just above the low and high u mentioned(N10.7 and N15.9 to be precise) 2 to 3 times... and will do more and probably more, and still join u then @ that N9 if and when it comes.
Some may even buy it then with the N2.5 dividend they collected in between.
This also applies to a few other healthy coys.

Meanwhile, u'll be there waiting to buy @ N9, while those with a clear investing STRATEGY has made enough returns that can match in volume and equate in price/VALUE that ur N9 entry in Zenith then, as N5-6 entry for them.
If u do not understand what the 2nd part in bold means, then it's probably because u lack the 1st part in bold.

Do u really understand how the thing about the time value for money relates with seeking value from opportunities of arbitrage. ...and how an investor with a tactical know-how can strategically compound value with time.
Look @ that tweet from POTUS above. Do u know how investors who understand the part in italics can make returns off it.
There's this book I would've advised u read but...

Good Luck to u in ur endeavour !!

Coming from somebody that encouraged people to mop up UACN...Continue with your epistles

How many round trip and profit have you done with your UACN

I know those I listen to...


I don't take you serious

onegentleguy:
@stcool, u talk too much my dear !!
...and the problem with that is that when u do, u tend to diminish what would've been a valid point and amplify the suspicion of an ungodly intent.

At 1st u kept screaming that folks should stay off the NSE because according to u, all coys will declare a woeful result beginning Q1 2020.
...and even when u were corrected(like with the post above) u still maintained ur stance.
Now UCAP has just released a FANTASTIC result, and instead of tell us how the result is woeful from an "stcool-perspective", u have suddenly deviated to talking about oil price with blatant lies/figures about extraction cost.

Ur basis for alarm bells beginning yesterday is on a drop in WTI which has absolutely nothing to do with overall typeface, Brent.
Even the said WTI drop was not the oil spot price, but that of futures due to expire this week.
Last I checked, the futures for June and July were still well above $20 and $25 respectively.
Even with yesterdays negative price in WTI(mainly because storage and refiners weren't buying given the closeness/short timeframe btw buying and selling... the result of the current glut in supply and unbalance in demand), the number of actual physical barrels being traded at that price was very limited. Most of May delivery were contracted in the $20bp region.

Though this has nothing to do with the NSE, I know that even if u were a US investor, u won't want to consider how the gradual reopening of economic activities in some states in the US will help tilt the unbalance in WTI demand upwards and/or other favourable factors to see if there can be reward for u to benefit from... U would still be crying wolf.

If as an INVESTOR, one does not understand that the stock market is that place where they constantly need to see through both real and virtual OBSTACLES to unlock OPPORTUNITIES and seek VALUE, then u shouldn't be here. ...I''ll sincerely advise u go do some other business. Everyone must not be an equity investor.

Imagine advising someone to sell off their stakes in a coy like MTN and MAY & BAKER(for instance) because of covid-19 and oil price slump, when INFACT they are making far more money now than when there was no such global concern as covid-19.
Do u know why the likes of ZOOM, AMAZON and WALMART have delivered more returns to investors now than pre-covid-19 period?

If on the other hand, u know some of these things but probably hold an intent to DECEIVE, just know that u may soon become caught up in the web of that which u are building.
It pays to be HONEST and when u want to adjudge things, have a PROPER BALANCE with RELATIVE PERSPECTIVE !!
...that's why some of us have NOT advised folks to align with all coys in the NSE.
What we have always said, is that as with every global/national event(including the current one), there will be WINNERS and there will also be LOSERS.
The KEY? Look to associate with the winners but do so seeking a VALUE that aligns with ur investment personality and goals.
While both a BULL and BEAR mkt can make one some money, there is a reason why the LATTER PERIOD is when the most monies/returns are made !!

Pls read this article(written on the 10th of March) if u are yet to do so; https://www.booksie.com/618814-alarm-bell-in-nigeria-between-fear-risk-and-opportunity-

"There are basically 2 great days in a person's life;
The day u were born, and the day u discover why u were born.
In the Stock market, that 'discovery' is tantamount to knowing why u are where u are, and having a sound reason for been there.
...for if u do not know why u are in the market, then u probably won't know why u should succeed in it."
~Sinclair

"If u desire to EXCEL in the Stock Market, then don't just be an optimist or a pessimist. ...be BOTH.
...then WORK to seek a fine line with a proper BALANCE between the 2.
Unless of course u wish to receive less and give up much more when u least expect it."
~Sinclair

Selah

Like I said earlier. I am done.

Intent to deceive...is the gain or loss coming to me.

I would pull this out later in the year. Then

Zenith could be sub N9 or Above N15
FBHN sub N3 or Above N6

Let it rest!!!


Selah

Mcy56:
This got me lmao.
Stcool can make someone pi.ss for body. If Fbnh is trading for N1, that means the likes of Transcorp, eti, wema etc, will be in ICU, 0.01 kobo. Lol.

Look at it this way...If you have N5 Million in idle funds...would you put it inside the market with current event?

Or you will wait for direction...

My warning is for those parking funds into market now with hope to come out in next 1 month or 6 month with a kill...

It wont work

By Oct-Nov 2020

You will be begging me to take your GTB & Zenith sub N10

FBHN sub...N3

NSE patience is key!

I am done till further notice!

TraDeRR:
FBHN at 1 please don’t tell me I will have to go to luth to look for Transcorp.. I don die oo ! Ha!

Not necessarily

My point is if you have funds in the market...take profits as they come unless you have a long term horizon

But if you are putting new funds now with all that is happening and you expect bumper harvest...especially JiJo apply caution.

TraDeRR:
FBHN at 1 please don’t tell me I will have to go to luth to look for Transcorp.. I don die oo ! Ha!

Not necessarily

My point is if you have funds in the market...take profits as they come unless you have a 5yrs horizon

But if you are putting new funds now with all that is happening and you expect bumper harvest...apply caution.

RabbiDoracle:
Where you go hold am? For pocket? E get cash wey no fit enter pocket o.

The panic was in March 2020. I could be wrong o if there is another one loading. But in my opinion, it isn't going to be earth-shattering like that of March.

My point is the possibility of FBHN trading @N1 on the NSE while the entity survives a crises and your money will be intact in your account.

Off course FBHN can't be wiped out unless Nigeria seizes to exist.

Anyways let me stop here! They are already crying that I am predicting doom

leo1234:
Stop saying what you do not understand.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Nigeria-Boasts-Oil-Production-Cost-of-23-Per-Barrel.amp.html

$23 average as at 2019...so what are you saying. Do we have current official figures for 2020?

RabbiDoracle:
You can't keep money in the bank if the country goes down. Banks will be wiped off as well

So where do you keep the money? You want to heap money under MATTRESS?

Nigeria will not learn from this event. Though this event is worst than 2014 to 2016 oil price decline. I must confess.

Oga Oracle my point is better to hold Cash both in Naira and $...becos once e don red...

NSE is always first to get hit hard! You can't hold unto a Zenith @N12 and watch it go down to N8 when you could have easily kept your cash and buy later at N9 when its all over.

Remember in a crisis...Shares can even trade at zero...but the entity may survive or get a bailout. Just saying.

TraDeRR:
Wahala dey oo..

Exactly...but the guy wants me to paint a slight picture.

You are selling @$12 with no single buyer and its cost you about $30 to produce same barrel

Tell me where you are heading...recession is an understatement unless the unexpected happens!

Worst is our leaders don't even know warris happening... The governors are waiting for month end to rush to Abuja to share money. Until dey will hear no money one day!

Afon1:
Stop causing panic pls.

Panic ke...is like you don't know warris going on

This is how low Bonny light is...no single buyer yet!

BAMOFIN1:
This post by stcool needs to be taken seriously. It is common knowledge that the current bull in the Nyse is artificial as it is the handwork of the Feds buying shares and bonds to delay market crash before the US election. Most enlightened investors are sitting on cash knowing that the fed's effort cannot be sustained to November. Buffet is currently sitting on billions of dollars in cash and he is selling some of his holdings. We have no Cbn cash to prop our exchange. May be instead of cashing out as suggested by stcool, we should from fresh investment and be very very watchful as the repercussion of the events of the last two months begins to manifest.

I keep shouting until reality sets in...I will just laugh!

Its shale oil falling, it's not Nigeria Brent.... wait for the weeks ahead all will follow suit.

Even the stimulus to small businesses from FED is currently exhausted. Once it comes to a point the market says FED can't fix it...that is the real crises for the market...how long can FED keep pumping before the market says this is not working.

Hold CASH in coming months...I rest my case!

Nigeria has not been able to offload cargoes for weeks now even at $9 discount from price.

I told you this week is last opportunity to sell off and hold cash...till Q4 2020

Its OK to ignore...A lot of money will be wiped off from NSE!

Be wise...Bailout now or get wiped out!

emmanuelewumi:
If UACN should make a profit after tax of over N150 billion like Zenith bank, GTB, MTN, that means the CEO will be paid a whopping salary of over N2 billion.

Anything from Ocean & Oil...my hand no dey

Oando....oh Oando...oh my Oando

DeRuggedProf:
Hmmm! Demolitions can be this expensive?.
Double impact!
A floating submarine has only one final destination.
Richy practically bought a dredger disguised as a cruise ship, see Gobe....

Peter is hooked! E shock am

stcool:
This week presents the last opportunity to bail out from the market...

Reality kicks in from next week until yr end.

A word is enough....CASH is KING

NSE is not NYSE...CBN is not FED!

Currently No stock is worth holding on the NSE...as you will get them at a lower price on or b4 Q4 2020.

Earning season is over...reality will soon i kick in.

This week presents the last opportunity to bail out from the market...

Reality kicks in from next week until yr end.

A word is enough....CASH is KING

NSE is not NYSE...CBN is not FED!

stcool:
People are still buying... Even after earning season is over

Una go learn the hard way

If you are a newbie...kindly keep your money.

Hold cash...you will buy stocks like Zenith below N10 later in the year.


Next entry season is Q4 2020...

People are still buying... Even after earning season is over

Una go learn the hard way

ehay:
hey Ogaaa, I understand your fears. I'm kind of new to stock market and just wanted to ask you a couple of questions wrt the pull backs you have been warning about. Let me just keep following you. And I'm a lady not a guy.

No vex...

It is best you ask your questions in the open here... We have experienced people that will give you directions.

I also learn a lot from them...you will learn more by posting your questions here and getting response from everyone.

*It is a faceless forum!

locodemy:
Hey man,kindly discuss it here.
My man can't be a prey nah.

You get time...me I just ignored both him and the message he sent to my inbox.

For this COVIK-1 9 period

Mcy56:
My thoughts too. I dont really see banks performing below expectation in Q1.

They would lots of haircut...I see CBN asking banks to shore up their capital.


Currently only 2 Nigerian banks can withstand any shock from a crises. Or you have not seen the report.

Wait in coming weeks, when CBN starts hitting them.