₦airaland Forum

DeLaRue:
There is absolutely no controversy here. The press, including Arise TV, has been reporting it for several months that there are 2 refineries within the same area in Port Harcourt and only one would be refurbished this year.

One, which is about 60 years old and has 60 thousand bpd capacity (which is the one every one who follows the news know is being refurbished - just completed).

The other one is, I believe, about 40 years old and has 150 thousand bpd capacity. Refurbishment of this one will start now that the much older one has been completed.

Many people simply do not follow the news keenly. They see things on social media and jump into it with no understanding.

The old refinery that has just been completed has not produced a single litre of oil for about 30 years despite OBJ, Yaradua, and Jonathan spending hundreds of billions on it. Yet, the last govt has achieved a full refurbishment in just a few years. Yet, you people are cursing.

So, what is wrong with finishing one refinery before moving to the other. Do you not know that the project can only proceed at pace of the Italian contractor's capacity?

Do you also know how difficult it is to completely refurbish a refinery that is based on technology that is no longer in use. Infact the original company that built the refineries refused to bid for the refurbishment work because they could not cope with the ardouos work that would be involved. Most foreign companies were not interested.

The Italian company who agreed to do the work is having to re-engineer most of the parts needed for the refinery and they have imaginatively redone a 60 yr old derelict refinery in a short time under immense pressure from the govt, and yet all many of you can do is still condemn their ingenious work on the old refinery

The government has already paid all the contract fee upfront but the Italian company could not work on 2 completely different refineries at the same time, and that is perfectly understandable.

Now they hope to finish the 2nd refinery in a years time, yet you people's histrionics is palpable.

If something has not worked for more than 20 years, and we have only 1 year to wait for it to work, what is the bid deal. And we now have one that can produce 60 thousand bpd in the interim.

Doing anything for Nigeria is a thankless job.

You nailed this one. I wonder where all the negativity is coming from. For those that understand this thing from the very beginning, nothing has changed from the plan.

60,000 barrels old refinery was to be completed by end of 2023 (though initial promise by the Buhari govt was months earlier). The 150,000 barrels newer refinery was to be completed in phase 2, to be delivered 6 months to 2 years later. If the argument was about why the newer, modern, higher capacity refinery was not rehabilated first, i would perfectly understand.

These refineries have defied all sorts of solutions thrown at them for close to 30 years. Now that there is light at the end of the tunnel, i am grateful for the prospect of seeing them work again. Simultaneously as PHC refinery phase 2 is being rehabilitated, Warri and Kaduna refineries will be rehabilated but completion may be much later in 2025. Nonetheless a good thing.

My only advice is for govt to consider privatising by selling off these refineries as NNPC cannot profitably manage them. Once the borrowed funds from these rehabilitations have been recovered via current operations management model, they should be sold.

I thought this same Dodan Barracks and VP Lagos house renovations were captured in the 2023 Supplementary budget recently passed? Was it carried over to 2024 budget proposal or this is an additional vote?

Buccal verbal diarrhea

I thought PBAT's manifesto mentioned a radically different view on budgeting, departing from the traditional budgeting process to a zero based, clean sheet budgeting. It is time to show working. N18trn revenue projection is a huge target considering that we hardly generate more than N8trn in revenues in the past few years. How will it be done?

Is APC or the Courts stopping the opposition parties from merging and forming a strong common front? They missed several chances to do this before the elections and still bickering and singing discordant tunes after the elections when it is clear that individual egos that got in the way of them working together before the elections are still troubling them. They are not yet serious, when they get serious, people will pay attention.

By the way, Nassarawa is APC and the Court ruled against the Governor who won reelection. Zamfara and Bayelsa cases in 2019 are also there. Always convenient to hang the Judiciary as soon as verdicts don't go their way.

The Lagos- Abidjan highway is sponsored and funded by the African Development Bank under Akinwunmi Adesina. Not sure if counterpart funding is obtained from individual countries that the road passes through. Possibly not, but AfDB may have the right to toll or monetize the road assets to recover their investment. In any case, it is a very good idea to promote regional trade.

Pity that we only get 78km of this over 1000km road with Ghana getting over 500km. Lucky them. The Nigerian stretch is likely from Seme border up to Mile2. Will it be upgrading of the existing Lagos- Badagry expressway or the construction of a separate new road?

The basis for this report needs to be interrogated. That CBN cannot pay backlog of $6bln? And yet they have paid about $1bln in a little over a month of coming on board. That they have no experience to guide the economy to stability through float management? Based on what was this assertion made? Surely they should know a new CBN management team is in place.

Three things will change our forex situation in the short to medium term as follows - increase in crude oil production to bring in more forex, refineries coming on stream to reduce pressure on the forex demand side and investigation of some persons who abused forex allocations in the past. Some form of negotiation will happen for them to release their illegally acquired forex into the market and avoid prosecution.

I can't see any other outcome than a Naira recovery against the USD.

I think the bigger picture is a possible Wike vs Tinubu fallout. Wike still nurses a Presidential ambition and knows PDP offers him a better platform than APC to actualise it. Only time to actualise it is in 2027 as if he misses that window, it will take another 12 years before it comes back South, a long time to wait. Tinubu will surely seek a second term in 2027. So something will give.

I suspect Tinubu will push for Wike to join APC so he can better relegate his ambition within the party which is easier to accomplish. Wike will see through the bait and keep his options open. Things will become clearer in 2 years' time when 2027 noise gains momentum.

Tinubu can yet push for PDP to expel Wike so he becomes an orphan. Tinubu will also keep Fubara close so he can use him to pull the rug of Rivers State political control off Wike's feet. With Wike effectively orphaned, he can be isolated and his ambition checkmated. High stakes politics yet to come

The Labour Unions should thread carefully. How on earth can you declare an indefinite national strike for an issue many consider to be partisan? What was done to the NLC President can never be justified but is a national strike the remedy? As demanded, the Imo State Police CP has been temporarily removed from supervising the elections. That step in itself is unprecedented. So what now justifies the strike? Ego, partisanship and opposition should be put aside and some logical reasonong take centre stage!

I find it very fascinating to read this of the previous govt that Mr Keyamo SAN served in.

“It seeks to move away from the frenzied borrowing of the last government, check the unacceptably high jobless rate, achieve economic growth, prosperity for all, and end poverty"

Congrats to Air Peace. So when is the first flight to London?

It is curious that a yatch can be delivered without a single dime down payment. It is highly unlikely.

Let there be competitive peace. Interesting how Dangote cannot survive genuine competition. It looks like things are set to get worse with PBAT's disposition towards Dangote.

That said, interesting to see how BUA has waited until Dangote breaks grounds in business sectors like Sugar, Pasta, Cement and now Crude Oil Refining before following suit. It can be annoying sometimes lol

The status and progress of the Siemens deal should be front and centre of discussion during Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to Nigeria. The deal has suffered close to 5 years delay. An urgent revival and fastrack is desired. Germany should commit to resuming funding and instruct Siemens to prioritise delivery. This should be a major pillar of President Tinubu's agenda.

Secondary to that is Germany's objective of energy/gas independence from Russia and the look to LNG supplies from elsewhere such as Nigeria to bolster its energy needs. There is a sweet spot there for both countries. Other areas of collaboration should include car manufacturing, steel development and others. President Tinubu's team should be on top of this and create mileage from the visit.

Wike has an excellent political brain. Brave, courageous and carries his people along. Amaechi is smarter with ideas but not politically. How can Amaechi believe anyone who promised him that he can beat BAT in a contest? Once beaten, he should have aligned and restrategised for the future. By supporting Atiku in the 2023 elections, he nailed the coffin of his political career.

It takes a political brain like Wike to go back on his decades hatred of APC to align when the oppprtunity presented itself. He is now the defacto godfather of Rivers and SS politics. He is learning well from BAT.

gift01:
It’s just a matter of time that port will boom especially when the adjoining road is fully fixed by Dangote

I share this view. The Port will eventually boom, it is a matter of time. I am disappointed though with the transport infrastructure into and out of the port and adjoining areas.

Massive road and rail infrastructure should have gone on side by side with the constructiin of Lekki Port, Dangote Refinery, Fertilizer and other industries around the Lekki axis. Not doing that upfront calls the thinking of those in charge to question. They can still remedy the situation by fastracking road and rail infrastructure around the Lekki area to facilitate business.

If you remove subsidy and the cost of petrol goes up 3 fold and if you liberalise the forex market such that currency loses 30-40% of its value, where do you think inflation will be trending in the short term? It is basic economics. Inflation will first of all rise, stabilise and start trending down. It will take time to achieve that.

LP can argue about the necessity or otherwise of subsidy removal and forex harmonisation but once both policies are adopted, the outcome cannot be different from what we are seeing.

Next to Abia, Bayelsa must be the most unfortunate state with poor leaders since 1999. This is the smallest state by population with revenue earning power in the top10. There is absolutely no reason why citizens there should not be living like kings and queens

These IMF folks should try harder. This is very pedestrian advice that lacks rigour. They fall my hand.

Govt has said it will widen the tax net first, make the economy buoyant once again before contemplating tax increases. In fact it seeks tonreduce multiplicity of current taxes as incentive to tax paying entities.

How do you justify tax increases now when the low hanging fruits are staring us in the face?

Buccalcavity2:
In other words. It took BBC, FIJ and almost a month of review for a university Prof to see what some of us saw in the deposition from day 1. Egbon Farouq, you're just a "partisan blinder" like your followers. Shame! I saw you on tv reeling out trash like a retard with sound phonetics and shook my head.
Your Rufai Oseni will come around soon too.
May my judgement not be impaired.

Rufai Oseni is too emotional to argue dispassionately. Always hiding under the garb of doing his journalistic work and speaking to facts, reaching conclusions that such facts don't support entirely.

A set of facts can support many outcomes. More facts or elimination of possibility of some outcomes are the ways to eliminate some conclusions. Those who have been in the crime solving scene or worked with uncertainty in their line of work can relate to what i am saying

Farooq Kperogi has written 3 or 4 articles on this CSU matter since Judge Maldonado ordered BAT's records to be released to Atiku. Each article has revealed additional info not available to him at first thereby invalidating his earlier conclusions.

The earlier articles concluded the INEC certificate was forged but this last article has gone 360 degrees to withdraw that forgery conclusion.

At least Farooq did not display intellectual stubborness and hypocrisy with the coming to light of additional info or info overlooked previously. That i commend him on. I urge him not to rush to conclusions too early next time and disspassionately analyse info and facts available to him, come up with possible scenarios that fit the data and lean on a plausible option without foreclosing other possible options.

How can anyone take Jandor seriously? He came a distant third with less than 70,000 votes. So the Court should invalidate more than 1 million votes of the first and second candidates and then declare him winner. This is a joke.

Politicians and their desperation. Just check, there is hardly any state where election results were not challenged by the losers. This is in an election that IRev and BVAS worked as intended. A few of those petitions are fine and the courts ruled accordingly. But a vast majority of petitions are a waste of Courts' time and resources. Desperate politicians who can't accept defeat. Not as if it matters!

Jackiedemie:
You didn't read it well, Tinubu collected the 1979, 1990s replacement but didn't collect 2022 replacement.
I think Tinubu misplaced the original of the 1990 but only get the photocopy of it... Which he gave to his lawyer to contact CSU to certify it for him then submitted to the INEC.

The 2022 diploma was what is in the possession of the Enaharo ( sic).

Tinubu didn't forge the certificate and why CSU can't attest to what he's paraded is because it's a photocopy not original and no institution will affirmed a photocopy of their original under an oath.

Good summary.
Original 1979 diploma certificate was collected by BAT but that was misplaced or destroyed by Abacha's people while BAT was on exile.
Replacement copy he ordered in the 1990s is likely the one he submitted to INEC.
The one he reordered in 2022 or so is the one in CSU's possession which he hasn't collected.

The CSU registrar couldn't authenticate the 1990s diploma because CSU neither kept records of replacement applications nor do they keep a copy in their records after the student must have collected it. Reason why the Registrar could not 'authenticate' it. The Registrar was also not at the school in the 1990s to know since the school doesn't keep records. The INEC copy shows it was signed by the school officials at that time and looks like diplomas issued at that time. The issue is with the addition of the text 'with Honours' which is only added for students who graduated with honours. Suggests that the sample shown by CSU were for students who didn't graduate with honours. The missing '1867' on the school logo and the 'Dean' text are all explained as the cutting off due to photocopying. The BBC report laid all these out.

zoghys:
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Why then give advice to atiku's team when in your own wisdom you think PBAT is a certificate forger. Don't it appeal to your common sense that you can't forge what you rightfully own. The salient points in the unnecessary drama are did tinubu ever attend and graduated from CSU which is in the affirmative, is he the same person, which is a yes, but not a yes daddy situation, does the school recognize the use of third party vendors to issue certificate to past students, which is also affirmative. In Nigeria, politics defiles plain logic, so I won't be perturbed if you let some unsuccessful politicians continue to manipulate your sensibility to launch a dead political career. Let the supreme Court gives it judgement, let all the arguing be done in the court room, shikena

Thanks for this view. How many elections have Dele Momodu won in his life? He is busy moralising but when he was glamourising fraudsters, drug dealers, dubious politicians and business people through his Ovation magazine, he was clean then, abi? Atiku that he supports has a million and one corruption charges and moral issues hanging around his neck. If people don't see politicians for who they really are, i am sorry for them as one side will keep using them against the other. It is what politicians do - go after their self interests alone. The one that is more strategic often wins.

Jbleenk:
The person above is so dull he couldn’t offer intelligent contribution other than to throw shades. It we find out now you go realize na one of the frustrated Obi or IPOD people.

Anyways, allowing marketers access to Dollar at the official exchange rate will strike off NNPCL monopoly allowing for healthy competition and eventually forcing down price in the long run as we have in the telecom industry. We hope this works.

The bottomline is that we have to gradually end fuel importation and reduce demand on forex which in turn strengthens the Naira. Whether you provide a level playing field for both marketers and NNPCL to import or not, the fact is it doesn't solve the problem. Between 30-50% of our forex demand today goes to import fuel. Take that out and you substantially provide for the Naira to breathe and recover. Let us focus on bringing Dangote, Portharcourt and Warri refineries on stream and watch the stabilisation of forex market follow.

Lokpobiri should not mix things up. I know he provided the breakdown in the body of the report so not sure if it is the media house that coined the headline.

Condensates are not counted as part of opec quota so the real crude oil production is about 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day. This is still a far cry from the > 2 million barrels per day capacity that Nigeria has. Can we just focus on what needs to be done to produce close to capacity? Same with gas supply to NLNG. The Trains have been producing at about 50% capacity for more than 2 years now. This is a classical case of self inflicted injury.

Felimax:
Bunch of empty heads!
The only solution is for Nigerians to gang up in the next fours years and make sure these useless lots and their online fools are booted out of Nigeria political space.

The time for sitting on the fence and turning the other eye is over. Nigerians should get ready for the bigger one. Everyone with progressive mind should ensure no more division and ensure these crop of corrupt and satanic fools are totally expired from politics.

I know their online idiots will dare to mention me to say nonsense and na thunder from hell go scatter their generations.

Don't you think that opportunity to gang up and boot current leaders out of power was missed during the last election? Why will a block decide to split itself into 4 or more parts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? It was pretty obvious that without unity of purpose, the opposition will fail. Dislike the ruling party all we want but they came together and unified against the ruling party in 2015 and won. There is a lot to learn from unity of purpose. I see the same mistakes being made by not working together still. There is little time to the next elections in 2027 and time is now to plan. Unite, clean out the rot within the opposition parties, promote young, vibrant, articulate, result oriented persons across board and allow them be presented for elective offices in 2027 and see if they won't sweep out the ruling party.

byteem:
Retailers are not ur problem they are at the bottom of the pecking order.. NNPCl and the oil cabal now that's another school for. Another day.. They have something on tinubu of not I don't see why that kyari is still there

Kyari still there baffles me very much. It is either there are some powerful forces backing him (he is a Kanuri man like VP Shettima) or BAT is waiting for SC judgment to strengthen his hand before making much needed changes at NNPCL or perfecting his plan for sweeping changes. Whatever it is, time is of the essence. That place stinks to the highest heavens and I see no difference with the CBN saga that has led to a clear out and an investigation that is almost concluded.

There is clearly some subsidy for PMS if you factor in how much oil price has gone up and forex has deteriorated since the last pump price adjustment for PMS. Diesel, kerosene and aviation fuels have increased in price so why not PMS?

I really don't mind the policy of stabilising PMS price for the short term to avert the poor masses bearing the brunt of a vicious market. It is a sort of price cap scenario above which govt absolves for the public or subsidize temporarily. Such cost can be recouped later when oil price declines and/or forex improves, selling PMS at above cost to get more revenue in. It will be like the way excess crude account works to cushion impact of adverse market forces on the masses. Many developed countries around the world do it particularly to cushion current high energy prices and moderate impact of cost of living crises on citizens. What the managers of the economy should do is to properly articulate and explain the policy to Nigerians who i believe will see the logic clearly, not this cock and bull story that NNPCL is telling at the moment.

ganisucks:
Ayo Maero-Ese is not biased. Don't taint her reputation.

Says who? She is biased as most of her colleagues. It is only Reuben Abati that has the deep knowledge and maturity to address issues logically without emotions and youthful exuberance exhibited by those Arise News anchors

It is good Olisa Agbakogba SAN has come to his senses. He did something similar by arguing the ridiculous 25% FCT on TV. He has now seen the light

COMPAQ:
Capacity and Generation are two different things. Besides the headline is also wrong. Its not National grid capacity that has grown to 14,000MW. Its actually generation installed capacity.

And the problem is that while generation capacity is 14000MW, actual generation is about 5000MW, mainly due to unavailability of gas. But even if we generated the entire 14,000MW, we wouldn't be able to wheel all of that power due to the limited capacity of the grid, which is also about 5000MW.

However, if we decentralized the grid, a generation plant in Kaduna that cannot send enough into the national grid can create its own transmission line to send power directly to Abuja DISCO.

The Power decentralisation act has been signed into Law, enabling States and other entities participate in the Power value chain. Real challenge is upon us and we are still speaking grammar like many Nigerians do. Apart from Edo and Lagos States, who else is taking this challenge up? Talk is cheap

Best advice ever. Yaradua made a big mistake reversing that sale in 2007. Missed opportunity