₦airaland Forum

KanwuliaExtra:
Ganduje na local champion. He will not be comfortable outside his state
And HE KNOWS TINUBU WILL NOT WIN.

So why follow a politically-drowning man to the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean?

The new expert on Ganduje. In fact, it was only when he was 50 years old that his mother allowed him to go to the neighboring village.

garfield1:
There is no preferred candidate of the core north sir.no northern group has endorsed him,no notable northerner is with him.majority of influential northerners are with apc.the northerners are not foolish,another northern rule will destroy nigeria

We are talking about northern individuals not groups. Afenifere endorsed Peter Obi, does that make him win in Ogun state?

cutecommend:
A Pastor said a guy slept with a married woman and lost his job the next day.

If you sleep with a married woman will it bring a curse? Let me tell you one thing. Curses are sometimes like seeds that grow into a tree. Do you know if you sleep with a married woman today, you may not feel anything or consequence until maybe 10 years later.

Sleeping with married women is dangerous. You may escape it, but your children may begin to experience some negative stuff.

If you have slept with a married woman, please stop it and repent.

All this "a pastor said." Pastors are humans like you and they say many things, so true and some false.

garfield1:
The crisis is not as much as pdp.atiku cannot win presidency with only the core north.he needs 3 zones.he is not sure of any,tinubu and obi are already sure of one

Who are we to say how deep the crisis is? Are you a party member to have such info? He is actually the preferred candidate of the core north.

garfield1:
Yes, ortom and suswan in benue are pro wike,ombugady in nasarawa is with wike,dankwambo in gombe for wike,Ibrahim idris in kogi,Jonah jang in plateau,yakubu lado and Shena in katsina, abacha in kano,kantigi in niger,mahdi gusau in zamfara.atiku is facing a civil war in pdp

Yes we have Benue, Nasarawa and Kogi. These are not the core north. No matter how bad the civil war, the core north would vote for a northerner. Also, don't forget that APC is also having its own crisis.

garfield1:
Half of the northern pdp are not even with him.fintiri is fighting for his life

No really

garfield1:
Let atiku win his polling unit and unite his party first

Lol, that wouldn't be a problem this time

garfield1:
No indications that they have lost any vote.apc so far have won almost all elections in core north since 2019 polls.no major defections

True, northerner vs northerner. But now its different.

garfield1:
Am not sure apc are losing any northern votes except in middle belt.even if they lose voters,it won't be enough for atiku

The are losing their major voting block, the core north to Atiku and Kwankwaso. They never dominated the middle belt.

garfield1:
We don't know about that.with kwankwaso in the mix and obi getting stronger,votes will be divided.you posted an online video poll from Kaduna and Adamawa and you saw that voters were divided at the urban areas.at the rural areas,they listen to their leaders who are mainly in apc

The point here shows that many of the traditional APC voters are moving away.
The APC has always depended on the Northerner votes because the south has not been fruitful for them. Now the would be losing much of their juicy core northern vote to Atiku and a little to Kwankwaso.

garfield1:
Pdp does not have men in several northern states to carry the gospel.the few they have care about their self to even send atiku.atiku cannot be every where.he needs loyalists yo campaign vigorously at the rural areas which he doesnt.he depends heavily on party structure and elites who don't have grassroot appeal.

While both of us have not done a census to know how many men PDP has, with or without men, the core north would always vote for a northerner.

garfield1:
Borno has never had a pdp governor.the side of core north atiku is from is not well regarded.he is from a state where half of the people are Christians and he only claims fulani.his real tribe is kilba.if small yaradua could reduce buhari votes,why didnt atiku a giant do same in 2019? Do you know that yaradua won Adamawa in 2007? Atiku is overrated man.the north will be torn between a religious ticket,a fanatic in kwankwaso and a liberal northerner.votes will be divided but tinubu has the advantage. Tinubu has more network and foot soldiers up north than atiku

I am not sure you have counted Tinubu's foot soldiers and what does this have to do with foot soldiers? No one expected any strong performance from Atiku in 2007. But even if Atiku is weak and sick, the Core north would always vote for their own. They have been the most consistent voting block since 2003.

garfield1:
Yes,a very special northerner like buhari.you cannot compare him to buhari.it doesbt mean that they will always vote a northerner automatically

Not really, and nothing special about him. Take a look at 2007 when a little-known Kastina Governor reduced Buhari's northern votes by half.
The Only constant factor is that the core north only votes for the core north. That comes first before the Party.
In fact, the core north Never votes for the party. It's always the candidate, that is why Borno, Kano, and Kastina have all had PDP governors. In fact, right now Sokoto has a PDP governor. So the idea that the north votes for party and not the candidate is wrong.

garfield1:
Yes but the core north party anpp adopted falae

I never spoke about party. The point is, since 2003, the core north has always voted for a northerner.

garfield1:
Oga,obj won core north in 1999
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-1999.html&ved=2ahUKEwj7pMiXmOL5AhWB_KQKHdcXDBsQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2-XoClXNCl7E0Fij8A6-mB


So you see,I've given you reasons why atiku will lose

What are you talking about? was there a northern candidate? Oga go and check in 1999, only two candidates. Both were Yoruba's

garfield1:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html&ved=2ahUKEwjjyIXwiOL5AhUfYPEDHSR2DTQQFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Cm5sYiHGT0j9wghBS1yGz


Oga check that link.obj got 40% in core north.defeated buhari in Kaduna and even in niger...tinubu will win kwara,niger,kogi.atiku can only win plateau and nasarawa,kebbi,sokoto,Kaduna,Adamawa,taraba,gombe.nothing else.
Why buhari has been winning core north is because he was very popular and loved plus his party was very strong in the core north.is atiku loved like buhari? How strong is pdp in the core north?

These are the states OBJ easily won. Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara and Taraba. None of these states have an Hausa or Fulani majority. Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Taraba remain PDP strongholds.
Southerners do not win in the core north.

garfield1:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html&ved=2ahUKEwjjyIXwiOL5AhUfYPEDHSR2DTQQFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Cm5sYiHGT0j9wghBS1yGz


Oga check that link.obj got 40% in core north.defeated buhari in Kaduna and even in niger...tinubu will win kwara,niger,kogi.atiku can only win plateau and nasarawa,kebbi,sokoto,Kaduna,Adamawa,taraba,gombe.nothing else.
Why buhari has been winning core north is because he was very popular and loved plus his party was very strong in the core north.is atiku loved like buhari? How strong is pdp in the core north?

Obj never won in the core north. We know the states he won.
Buhari won 11 core north state while OBJ won all the middle belt states.

garfield1:
The core north voted for obasanjo in 1999 even though anpp which controls core north then aligned with falae.obj got 40% in core north in 2003 same as gej in 2011.PDP is very weak in the core north now so how can they win? Apc is very strong in ss but cannot win.anpp won most parts of the core north in 1999 guber polls but many defected to pdp just like its happening in ss
The 2023 polls will be like 1979 or 1993

No northern option in 1999. In 2003 OBJ did not get 20 percent from the core north. He got most of his votes from the middle belt and very little from the core north. Buhari won 11 of the core northern states.
The only middle belt state Tinubu stands a chance is Kwara

QuotaSystem:
Stating that you’re being delusional with your permutations isn’t an insult but a statement of fact. So far, others have tried to spoon-feed basic political logic but you remain obstinate.

If I told you you were probably high on tyre fumes while typing the statement below, then it would be an insult.



Understand the difference. Regards.

Do the rightful sir

QuotaSystem:
1. I have no concern beyond clearing the delusion upon which you built this thread on a public forum.

2. Your home-training or lack of it matters little in this discourse.

3. The fact the you uttered the statement below underlines your political delusion and is sufficient proof that you have nothing to tell me. Cheers.

Oga, there are enough insultive threads. You would feel at home in many of them. I am not sure this is the best place for you.
You can apologize and you would be accepted to our decent society.

garfield1:
It does.it is actually the reason why pdp was winning from 2003-2011.buhari cleared core north not the whole north becsuse cpc and anpp was very strong.it took an alliance of parties for buhari to win in 2015.obj got 40% of the north in 2003,yaradua won him in the north....dont forget pdp has never won in zamfara,yobe,borno.presently,PDP is weak in katsina,kebbi....
Osun has always been a difficult place where incumbents lose.in 1983,bola ige lost.in 2003,akande lost and 2007 oyinlola lost.you saw how difficult it was in 2018,oyetola lost at the first ballot.osun like most part of the west is a difficult place.the biggest factors are popularity and performance before structure but you can see the narrow margin of victories to show you how strong apc is there. See how pdp was humiliated in ekiti...atiku cannot win this sir

Obj never won in the core north. Even at it's strongest PDP never won the core north.
PDP was really strong. The won governorship in many of these states but the core north never voted for a southerner. PDP's best result was with Yaradua a fellow northern.

QuotaSystem:
There is nothing I expected you to say in the first place.

You were only being informed.

Do you think you are the only APC person on this thread? The others who choose to be respectful, do they have 2 heads? We have been having dialogues and disagreements but we all choose to be respectful because we have some home training. We would have answered your concern but some of us were not brought up on the streets. We would not lose our respect fighting for politicians. I hope you understand. Warm regards.

garfield1:
They will get over 40%.the party structure is bigger than pdp and nnpp combined.

PDP structure was bigger from 2003 to 2015 yet Buhari kept clearing the north. Party structure does not work. Party structure did not save APC in Osun.

QuotaSystem:
You’re clearly delusional or pretending to be.

Tinubu getting over 40% in the North isn’t even a question to be pondered if you knew anything about northern politics. You think he opted for M/M ticket out of fancy? You think the political heavyweights behind him are for jokes? Ganduje? Zulum? El-Rufai, Yakassai et al? Lol. The fact that you even think Kwankwaso is a threat (and didn’t factor the high probability that he would eventually step down for Tinubu) exposes the limits of your political sagacity.

You people had better learn to manage your expectations otherwise I can only imagine the anarchy you guys might cause in your region in the face of Obi’s defeat, going by your reaction to the kicking out of Jonathan.

Whenever someone begins his post by attacking others, I don't take the person seriously. I only read your first sentence. Rewrite it in a more polite way and I promise to read and reply to you.

garfield1:
The votes will he divided between the three but tinubu will slightly have more votes

Because they love him more than their people right? Or they regard him more? Even with rigging, 25% would be hard for APC. And APC need at least 40% from the north to win.

garfield1:
He is that is why they love him.he defends northern interests

So they don't love Atiku and would not vote for him but the love Kwankwaso and would not vote for him. I see

garfield1:
I am right.atiku is not a fanatic

And Kwakwanso?

[quote author=garfield1 post=116044817]They loved Buhari, but they dont love atiku[/quote Wrong, but your opinion.

The PDP has always won Abuja in every presidential election. Would this year be different? What demographies determine the Abuja vote? I don't stay in Abuja so those who do, please tell us what the atmosphere in Abuja feels like.

famouscargo4u:
Na you dey think that way o, they're not. Did you see the crowd that met him in Bauchi? I agree with you in a way sha. Tinubu is not supposed to even get much votes but his advantage is inheriting the votes of strong APC candidates vying for senate and House of reps in the north.

That is actually APC's only hope. That other PC candidates would rub off on the presidential. It is not mostly like that. We have seen states vote for the PDP governor and Buhari in the presidential. It happened in 2007, 2011, and even 2019.

famouscargo4u:
Na you dey think that way o, they're not. Did you see the crowd that met him in Bauchi? I agree with you in a way sha. Tinubu is not supposed to even get much votes but his advantage is inheriting the votes of strong APC candidates vying for senate and House of reps in the north.

That is actually APC's only hope. That other PC candidates would rub off on the presidential. It is not mostly like that. We have seen states vote for PDP governor and Buhari in the presidential. It happened in 2007, 2011, and even 2019.

ItsTutsi:
Atiku needs to win massively in the north, that's the problem, because PO is playing spoiler in SE/SS where Atiku should have been a natural beneficiary of votes

In the north, we have 3 voting blocks
1. The core north that would vote for a northern Muslim no matter what. They make up 60%
2. The northern Christians, make up 20 to 25%
3. The more political and swing votes make up 15 to 20%

APC would be lucky to score 30% of the votes in a free and fair election. The average Northerner is excited by an opportunity to rule.