₦airaland Forum

pumping777:
Well, Oando is on course. I remain loyal.

On course to where? ABEG, forget all those petroleum marketing companies. Until you have FULL deregulation, no show for them!

RoughCut:
Make sure you receive confirmation of your bonus before you sell so that way you have more to sell and of course your dividend. Did the same in anger

What use is the UBN bonus? Abeg make dem carry go! Slleping giant. Old bank with archaic ways! Making in a year what First Bank is making in 6 months!

shigidi:
@ wanajo,
diamond at 30 naira is a bit optimistic in my book. their forecast eps is 1.2, and lets not forget they are still planning a po.
maybe 25naira will be better.

Look at it this way. 6 months PAT is N5.8bn. Actually Q2 PAT was about N3.2b. If you assume the same thing for the remaining two quarters you are talking of about N12.2bn. This has not taken into consideration the ACTIS fund that they just recieved. Note also that most banks seems to generate more profit in the last two quarters. So, a full year PAT of N12b to N15b is more like it which gives an EPS of 1.3 to 1.6. At a PE of 20, you are talking of a price of 26.00 to 30.00.

Don't see them doing an offer before the current year end. Even if they do, it will likely be a GDR.  I expect them to push the price UP before any offer so that they don't get too much share in issue. Union Bank is regretting going for the offer too early!

OANDO PLC RESULT

UNAUDITED NINE-MONTHS RESULT FOR THE
PERIOD ENDED SEPTEMBER 30 2007.
2007 2006 %CHANGE
TURNOVER N174.3b N155.7b 12
PROFIT BEFORE TAX N4.4b N3.0b 46
TAXATION (N851.8m) (N694.0m) 23
PROFIT AFTER TAX N3.6b N2.3 53
MINORITY INTEREST (N676.5m) (N320.6m) 111
PROFIT AFTER TAX AND
MINORITY INTEREST N2.9b N2.0b 44



NAHCO RESULT

UNAUDITED NINE MONTHS RESULT FOR THE PERIOD
ENDED SEPTEMBER 30 2007.
                       2007     2006     %CHANGE
TURNOVER              N2.6b      N2.4b        7
PROFIT BEFORE TAX     N550.8m   N448.4m      23
TAXATION             (N176.3m) (N143.5m)    23
PROFIT AFTER TAX      N374.6m   N304.9m     23

pumping777:
See what you have all done to Diamond Bank now, rising up to 18.50 today

That one na usual gyration. It still traded at 17.50 which happens to be my benchmark price. Wait till it will start its race then we can start to talk

Not impressed with the BACGO prospectus!!! Quite expensive by my own valuation. Will let that pass. Will meet them in 2009 after their 2008 result and the paltry dividend (prorated)

Rought cut, I hear you on WEMA but you need to cover your back.

Check out WEMA's Q1 result last year and what the FULL year result finally ended with. So factor in 'surprises' into your calaculation.

WEMA is not expanding. They are not opening branches. They are not competitive. So even though there are upside (rebranding, clean books etc) don't ignore the downside also.

Though we all talked about cleaning of the books, we don't know how bad it is until you see the FULL ANNUAL REPORT. Same thing was said in the FY 2005!!!!! You don't even know whether the auditors qualified their accounts. Since they are yet to apy dividend they may still have goodwill in their books. Right now, WEMA cannot set the goodwill against its reserve or else it will have less than N25bn shareholders fund. It has to be set against profit.

As per the PO, I am not that optimistic about WEMA PO. WEMA still got a lot of work to do to start to march on again! They need to expand. The ODUA clout is no longer there. The arena is getting more competitive so they have their work cut out for them.

On UNION bank, just forget them. Old bank managed by old people with old ideas! That is a stock that has a SELL written all over it. ACCESS tried taking them over. It is only that they are not that attractive.

Diamond is looking quite lovely to me. Will continue to watch them. ACTIS fund should do them some good.

I am loving FCMB also. With the many institutional shareholders (foreign) I expect to see an improvement in their corporate gorvernance. I know people talked about the N12b for CSL acquisition. The N12bn is for acquisition and further CAPITALISATION of CSL. It is not only for acquisition. Remember that there is an increase in capitalisation requirement of stockbroking firms. Of course, SUBOMI will make money from the deal.

Except WEMA is waiting to be acquired, they will have to raise N100b to their current N25bn shareholders fund. That will require them issuing 10bn share.

For me, thanks to WEMA. See them some other time. Let me look for the next golden hen. WEMA has tried.

tonyjon:
Wanaj0,

What do you have to say as per Afribank PO?.

Peace.

Afribank? Not interested. For banks, na Diamond me dey load now!!!! Can't afford to over diversify my portfolio. No be all good thing man go dey buy.

Dunlop is set for a turn around. At below 3.00 (2.50), is a good price to enter. I expect them to declare a loss of full year 2007 but enter to profit hence forth. By then they should have paid back and restructure the balance of loan used to finance the new radial tyre plant.

UNIC, cleaned its books some two years ago. Owned mainaly by ernest Shonekan. Don't think they have any management problem. To concentrate on life insurance. They planned spinning off their non-life insurance. Major player in health insurance. Also involved in Critical Rescue. Building a club at VGC. I think they are well positioned.

BAGCO, waiting for the prospectus. But I am in love with the company. As per the litigation, nothing special based on the opinions of their lawyers. Good thing that it was disclosed. When I see the prospectus, will be able to say whether it s BUY.

Don't buy Union Bank. This is the time to sell. UBN is a sleeping giant that may eventually die if care is not taken! Union is one of the WORST bank out there. WHy anyone will buy Union Bnak is beyond me!

For me, DIAMOND is the gem. Just watching it closely. Bought at 5.50 Nov 2006. Sold at 20.20 in May 2007. Buying again now at 17.50. I expect it to be in the 25.00 - 30.00 range by June next year at the least. Anyone intesreted in joining me

On WEMA, if you are in by the technical suspension is placed, then you will wait for a long time. They will have to issue a lot of shares to be able to compete. Nothing less than 5bn shares which is still small!!!! Don't expect the rally after the lifting of technical suspension. Check out what happened to Access bank. Note also that money from the PO will likely not add to the March 2008 FY result. So, to me, not an option. Bought at 3.50 at the begining of the year so I can say THANK YOU LORD!!!!!!!

Capital oil is a small company that has cornered the petroleum distribution in the south eastern part of teh country. Unlike Lagos where teh major marketers hold sway, the independent marketers are in control in other places especially the south eastern part. Did not get teh stock to buy at 48k some months ago. Not a stock to hold on for long. But based on activity on the ground, they are doing well.

damoche07:
Hi Tmoni,

Is ETB coming to the market?I know they usually release there result very late but thats not the case now.Any snippets about them becoming a PLC soon?Is Adenuga ready to release his hold?

Rumours of private placement. The latest result is

PAT of N3.7b from 13b oustanding shares. That is an EPS of 0.28. Using a PE of 25, then I will value it at 7.00 max. If they are doing a private placement, will be looking at a price of 3.00 - 5.00 range. (assumed that teh shares are 50k ordinary shares)

nzemillion:
Wanajo, i´m confussed about this First bank po allocations, my dad bougth this First bank PO, the total units he paid 4 is 477,000 units. In this case of allocation, how many units do u think he´s going to get.

Based on the allocation, he will get 17% of what he applied for. Very simple!!!!!!! Except he has 'multiple' applications

shigidi:
@ wanajo, if they absorbed 25obn, we are looking at a very diluted eps.
BTW, what price range do you see longman been in come march?

Yes there will be diluted EPS (temporarilly) Ever bothered at how much they can get from N250bn investment? Think about the impact of that on profit? Even at 10% return on capital, that is N25bn added to current profit! Not bad in my opinion.

Not looking at Longman again. Bought at 9.15 and has achieved my target based on exit strategy.

Diamond is what I am looking at now. If it can reach 25.00 - 28.00 by June 2008 that is alright by me.

Crownvilla:
@wanajo

How does Red Star compare to Trans Express and is it (Red Star) worth purchasing? Thanks.

Red Star did a private placement (really private) at 4.00. So I expect a stock split before the offer. If the offer is at 4.00, it is worth considering. Prospectus not yet out so cannot comment.

Trans Express is doing quite well. if you acn get it to buy, go for it!

Zenith righst is 1 for 6.

walcolm:
if you are in lagos, you should rush down to first registrars office at iganmu (beside Nigerian Breweries) and give them your CSCS number to attach to your details in their register of shareholders

Sorry, First Registrars is not the registrar to the offer so they cannot help you.

It is already late anyway. Use it for future offers.

RoughCut:
One quick question when is Trans-nationwide express going to do a PO? as it appears some of us are a bit late to gatecrash the rights issue party or should i tag along with wanaj0?

PO not in the plan now. They are going for a rights issue!!!! Red Star express is going for a PO though.

I don't own a single share in Trans Express though I would love to have some.

Temmie10:
thats very positive.
where did u get this info?

was in the punch newspapers as part of the announcement. First Bank showed that it is in a separate class.

Close to 1million applicants applying for over 10bn shares!!! That na serious record! Na real elephant don come to market offer

MyPeace:
hahaha

Why you dey laugh? Make I call you? Abeg do something!

MyPeace:
shigidi u are right

The stock that can make you rich in 2008 is Trans Express.

So MYPEACE, how far?

donilors:
Hi wanaj0,

Would these be guys with right issues?

No. Right issue allotment not yet out!!!!!! Assume that you will naturally get all your rights. If you however applied for more than your rights, that may be an issue.

BTW, ETB result is out. PAT of N3.7b from 13b oustanding shares. That is an EPS of 0.28. Using a PE of 25, then I will value it at 7.00 max. If they are doing a private placement, will be looking at a price of 3.00 - 5.00 range.

damoche07:
@wanajo. u are sure about that?

how would they get the 250billion they intend to absorb if they wont allot for those above 10000k units?hope u get my point?

Sorry if I confused you. Anyone above 10,000 units get partial allotment

10,001 - 15,000 units get 74% allotment
15,001 - 25,000 units get 50% allotment
25,001 - 50,000 units get 30% allotment
50,001 - 75,000 units get 23% allotment
75,001 - 100,000 units get 21% allotment
50,000,001 and above gets 5.35% allotment

Note that all those under the preferential allotment category got all that they requested for!

Learnt that the First Bank allotment is out. Anyone above 10,000 units will get refund of money!!!! That no easy OOOO

easimoni:
I have digested the SEC website and with the exception of companies that merged (e.g Crusader), the outstanding shares of most companies can be deduced. Did you get my excel s.sheet on the other forum?

Most of the companies merged or acquired others. Some did rights/public offer with different levels of success. Some spurned off certain segment of their businesses.

toyibanj:
Wanaj0,
Easimoni seems bullish on some ins. stocks and has declared the ones he has bought or buying. Could you too do the same even though you seem less bullish.
When do you think we bail out of Wema, for fear of TS.

I have UNIC, NEM and AIICO. Note that I bought them at relatively cheap price some 15 months ago. Not bought anyone this year. Sold part of my holdings this year in those companies when they were at their year high.

Me I don't have the fear of Wema. Sold what I need to sell to lock in profits and moved to something else.

Temmie10:
Lets remember that Dangote did not offer to sell Nascon.
It was NSE that approached him to offload some of his units because Nascon was extremely illiquid and demand was high
Give the man some breathing space

Dangote is not to blame. He did not force people to buy. I blame those that bought without checking what they're buying.

RoughCut:
Will this sad development have anything to do with the stunt Dangote pulled sometime back in July i believe selling his personal holding in NASCON in a one-day spectacular and a lot of peeps rushed in to buy and jerked up the price in the process i have just had a look again at the share price trend it's being downhill since from a lofty N26 to an abyssmal N15

Nigeria we hail thee!

99% of those that bought NASCON did without any analysis due to the dearth of information. At the end of the day, hype will go and the fundamentals will stand. Why should NASCON be above 15.00??

Well, they are planning an offer. Union Dicon is also having problems. That shows that all is not well with that sector. Me I will siddon look. Not sure that risk was worth taking.

crazyT:

@ Wanaj0



I have this question for you, this is based on the fact that I have noticed (on this thread) that you are good at jumping out of a ship before it wrecked, so when is it advisable for me to dispose my CAPOIL shares? I set my target at 300% (based on scarcity) but now that the stock is on his way to 400% without any fundamental do I bail out now or still wait to ride the bull knowing fully well that the stock is not liquid.

pumping777:
Yes, you could not have put that better!!!

Not many people will survive a ship wreck so don't wait till one will happen.

I tend to be realistic when I see a winner that has become over valued without any reason!

Really, a lot has to do with your emotions. if you jump out now and you see further 400% growth how would you feel?

Back to capital oil, I think it is a company benefitting from the current energy crisis. At least, I see their trucks on the road unlike NOSPETCO. I think that they control the easten market for petroleum products.

The number of units that you have will determine your strategy. Since you are already above your exit price, you can sell betweem 30% - 50% to lock in profits while you watch further. Nothing to show that the price will come down at elast for now. Sell some so as not to be faced with a stock that no one is buying.

whitelexi:
@Wanajo

I've always been a fan, but i wont agree with u on this one. Insurance shares will do well, by the 1st qtr of next yr i expect things to change drastically for the better.

@Easimoni

Do you agree with wanajo? Anyways, i'm in the insurance sector for long keeps, but if things are going to go wrong, i might as well sell when things get slightly better.

Guess you are misintepreting my comment. INSURANCE companies holds value. However, not sure of the current valuation. Some corrections have taken place already which is good. Check the highs and lows and you will see the corrections. Valuation is difficult when you don't have the full information.

I have insurance stocks. I am however wary of buying some at current price levels.

Temmie10:
gist is that Union bank is giving dividend of 1 naira and a bonus of 1 for 5.
Not bad at all.

Correct. Result declared today as predicted. Not expecting it to affect the price that much though.

Still expecting the UNIC result.

May and Baker result also is quite impressive.

tonyjon:
@ Wanaj0,

Is it advisable for one to buy into the insurance sector now?.

Peace.

Personality differs so it is difficult to say.

Insurance companies hold value for the future. Not sure however that the current prices are good for entry. So many 'hidden' things about them. So thread with care.

bootas:
Proshare News and Analysis
BAGCO: N7.27 bn IPO opens Nov 7
Posted Tuesday,6 nov
The Initial Public Offer (IPO) of Nigerian Bag Manufacturing Company Plc (BAGCO) is to commence November 7, 2007. The company is offering to the public 1.87 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N3.90 per share. This was after its shareholders approved its decision to raise the funds through the capital market. The offer which is scheduled to close on 14th of December 2007, is 80 per cent underwritten on a firm basis by Zenith Bank Plc.

The offer, according to the offer document, is undertaken to give investors opportunity to become part owners of the company which is currently a wholly owned subsidiary of Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc. After the conclusion of offer, Flour Mills 100 per cent holdings will be reduced to 70 per cent while the remaining 30 per cent will belong to investors in the IPO.

The Managing Director of the company, MR. Peter Soutar Low, disclosed that the proceeds of the offer would be utilised to settle current deposits which it incurred in the process of the making the company an efficient manufacturer of different types of bags.

He said, “The estimated net proceeds of the offer of N6.95 billion after deducting the cost of the offer, estimated at N320.76 million will be utilised in the repayment of loans valued at N6.26 billion, representing 90 per cent of the offer proceeds, while N695.27 million representing 10 per cent would be used as working capital, in addition to the fact that it will make it possible for the company to meet the requirements for listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).
It forecasts a turnover of N12.46 billion, N15.45 billion and N17.15 billion for years 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively and a profit after tax of N1.07 billion, N1.67 billion and N1.89 billion respectively.
It promises to pay its shareholders a dividend of 17 kobo per share in the 2008 and 2009 financial year while they will be enjoying a dividend of 18 kobo per share in 2010.
It disclosed that with the coming on stream of United Cement Company of Nigeria Limited (UNICEM) in 2008, its bottom line will be boosted considerably, as it is the supplier of first choice to the company. “In addition to its existing markets, Bagco is supplier of first choice to UNICEM which is due to come on stream in 2008 and it is ready to take advantage of this.
It is generally accepted that Nigeria’s appetite for cement will continue to grow strongly for the foreseeable future. In conjunction with its dominance of its core market, it is embarking on other areas of packaging. Bagco Morpack will produce high quality film packaging for the consumer products industry,” The prospectus noted. - Vanguard

Except there is a mistake in this report, then BAGCO offer is very expensive!!!!!!!!!! forward PE of 22.8 for 2008 is a no no!!!!!! The new investors will likely not partake of teh 2007 declarations. Forward PE for 2009 itself is not that encouraging at PE of 14.

If this is true then I will just let the offer PASS!

Temmie10:
Actually unic's results are out 2day

At last. Hope we will see the oustanding shares beased on the last PO. Hope to see the treatment given to the life insurance aspect of the business and what their plan is going forward.

RoughCut:
Also take into consideration they will have to acquire the assets and libilities of CSL and i noticed they made a provision of N3.2B for risk assets(another name for goodwill) is this to do with the acqusition of CSL ? They will have to charge this to the profits or their reserves so not sure anything changes

They will likely charge the goodwill against their reserve (share premium). Effect will only be on balance sheet not on profit and loss account.

Risk assets are provision for bad and doubtlful loans. I think that is consistent with previous years. Don't expect CSL to come with high bad and doubtful loans.