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InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:30pm On Nov 29, 2007
FatherOF2:
@Wanajo,

  You see  I commend your efforts. Plaudable and Plausable they're.
But its obvious we can't walk on the same road.We share very different ideals.
From all your claims,you're obviously very good at what you do.Nuff respect for that.
But try not critisize a concept you don't understand.
You're obviously a good LONG TERMER.
But you can NEVER change a very successfull SHORT TERM TRADER.

PEACE OH, lets go back to the nse. cool cool
Fatherof2, never criticize your contribution. It is not my money so why criticize. I only try to put a caveat emptor on BUY and SELL signals. Every stock recommendation will carry that. There is a reason for it. Some people here are new hence they need to know how things work.

You know what works for you. Who am I to complain so no hard feelings at all. All the best.

eniyanman:
@wanaj0

Thanks, just called their UK office, but they only deal with institutional investors. I've been asked to contact the West Africa office (in Lagos). Do you have any experience of dealing with Afrinvest West Africa?
Some changes already in their operation. Quite complex. right now, Afrinvest Uk (bought by UBA now) has little to do with Afrinvest Nigeria. Your best bet is to deal with their Lagos office.

Contact Sifashe at Afrinvestwa dot com or Bbalogun at Afrinvestwa dot com. They should be able to help you out.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:18pm On Nov 29, 2007
Temmie10:
@fatherof2
keep your intelligent contributions coming,
what we're here to discuss is views about the market
i enjoy reading your views on NSE
The forum makes sense because theres more than one voice and more than one opinion so abeg, kp doing what you're doing,
leave the side comments alone for now,
Lets discuss the NSE,
same for wanaj0,
can't remember making side comments. This is a faceless forum for crying out loud! If I need to feel important I will not be doing it here.

Like I said, nothing personal or serious here. Everything is fun.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:37pm On Nov 29, 2007
eniyanman:
Apologies if this has been dealt with earlier. Can anyone recommend a good stockbroker through whom I can trade from the UK.
Cheers!
I will stick out my neck for Afrinvest.

Suprisingly, Afrinvest people believe that I never say anything good about them based on my harassment!!!! Seriously, they are topnotch depending on your objective.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:35pm On Nov 29, 2007
ololufemi:
@ Pumping

The guy that took N15 million is not the only one investing in the market.

I got a facility of about N2 million which I intend to invest instead of purchasing another car.

This applies to about 200 of my colleagues and immediate junior colleagues inclusive.

Thats about N300 million which is being financed from about 4 banks our firm has business relations with.

That is just one firm and a small part of its employees.

I remember that I met one Executive Director of a bank who was complaining that the share price of a particular organisation did not rise and he took a huge loan to purchase loads of those shares. The figure was about a hundred of million

Even banks give money to brokers to purchase their shares in the primary or secondary market and no be small money.

I no talk sey N15 million dey shake market but look at it from how many N15 million(X) where X is the number of people that borrow to invest.

Imagine if 100 people borrow N15 million each. Thats N1.5 billion.

Imagine if 1000 people borrow N5 million each. That's N5 billion

Now FCMB has come out with a product that gives you acess to about N10 million spread over 4 years

My brother, I am not looking at it from the micro-small level but from the macro-big level.

There is a lot of borrowed money in our stock market.
You are so right and that is the recipe for a crash. Well, we will only have a correction. Most of the loans are short term funds invested in Long Term investments. That is investment error 101. At maturity, the funds will be recalled and you will be forced to sell whether you made a profit or not!!! Because people collect a loan, they are 'forced' to buy at whatever prevailing price even if the price is not justified. They cannot be paying interest on idle cash. That's one of teh reasons behind the high returns on NSE this year, Companies that are not in production are having price increases.

I only hope the PFA funds are there to help or else there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:21pm On Nov 29, 2007
tonyjon:
STOCK FIELD MARSHAL,

What is your take with Oceanic bank plc?.

Peace.
Una don get Idi Amin for here??
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:17pm On Nov 29, 2007
dinvestor:
Kudos to all the expert analysts on this forum. I have followed this thread for a few months now and like many have said it is a wealth of information.
I have not had anything to contribute and so have not. However I feel compelled to butt in at this stage to reprimand Fatherof2 for persistently passing snide comments at Wanajo's contributions.
It defaces your (fatherof2) good contributions to this forum & detracts from the main aim of this forum, which is to share one's knowledge & experience (if they so wish).
Personally I think as with all things Nigerian, we are beginning to let our egos get the better of us.
Please let us all re-focus and remain within the boundaries of constructive criticism.
Thanks.
My brother, nothing to worry about!!! This is a faceless forum to start with. Anyone that gets angry over the internet need to get his head examined. Nothing said here take or remove from my person. So no hard feelings.

i got more punches during the Access bank PO when someone wrote a damning report on Access Bank. Though I like objectivity, in a faceless forum, you will not always get it.

I like fatherof2's contribution. It is a comic relief. But for a marathon race, I am not that bothered about what is happening at the 100m point.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:13pm On Nov 29, 2007
pumping777:
I think you are too conservative with this figure. I'm not sure the market will notice someone with N15 Million except the person is going after penny stocks. To cause a price Tsunami in this market you need much more than that.
N15m by 1,000 people is material!!!! Most of them only hear that they make money on NSE and they jumped in. The brokers also are not helping matters. They are over trading because of the commissions they get. Really a fool and his money are soon parted

With the way things are, expect a dip in March when the financial yaer end of most bank will occur except the PFA funds comes in to help. Many people are highly geared now. I fear that some will even lose their capital with the margin facility. Not good to do things that you don't understand. Imagine people collecting loans to buy the First Bank PO!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:09pm On Nov 29, 2007
FatherOF2:
Hmmmmmmm,
THE ONE AND ONLY EXPERIENCED GUY.
unfortunately, I am too young to go with that title. Guess you give a dog a big name in order to HANG it.

There are many elders and elder emeritus on this site.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:36pm On Nov 29, 2007
ololufemi:
@ Wanajo,

Must commend you on the spreadsheet. Similar to what FSDH has but took a lot of effort at modifying.

But that does not mean you will rest because I know my naija brothers even myself, we still like advise even when we know the thing to do.

Just to make sure.

Whether fundamentalist or suicide bombers, na person go buy wetin person wan sell and na person go sell wetin person wan buy.

This market is being dictated by these guys who take big loans to trade. I met this guy who took a loan of about N15 million to trade in stocks. Na them dey make market go see-saw but its important you know what you do.

@ Nairalanders,

be careful how you invest

If you can't take the pain, don't take the risk oh

Zenith Public Offer, a must buy and always in your best interest
If you take your eyes of the daily flunctuations and the emotional roller coaster that goes with it, things will be better.

Well for everyone that took a loan and make profit, there are others that took loans and made a loss.

have a friend who made a killing with BCC. Bought 1million units at <6.00. Sold teh bonus above 60.00. Collected a margin facility of close to N60m. Bought WAPCo at above 80.00 with the hype about bonus etc. When the result of WAPCo came out, he gave a sell order to cut his losses but WAPCo was already at 65.00 before he could buy.

With the profit from BCC, he took a risk that was not really necessary!!!!! He learnt the hard way now.

So, seen the good, the bad and the ugly!!!!

you and this your Zenith offer na wa OOOO.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:25pm On Nov 29, 2007
Got a lot of e-mails!!! What I sent will be of no use to most people. Ignore the premature ejaculation on this thread. I sent a proprietary information which should not be on a public forum and it was meant for selected few that I believe will have need of it. It is not a SELL or BUY signal. It is not a charting software. It is really nothing special. Believe me!!!!!

Be rest assured that I will always make available for the general use information that will benefit all. I go for a win win situation.

No one should feel offended if I am not able to respond to their request. Hope there will be no hard feelings.

cheers
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:14pm On Nov 29, 2007
LondonCool:
@Wanaj0,

As a keen enthusiast of Warren Buffets "Focus Investment  Strategy"  I did raise my eyebrows when you earlier mentioned that you had around 40 Stock in your portfolio, but your later explanation about keeping tabs and opportunities on the others that made up 10% of your portfolio did make a lot of sense. I was about doing a clear out of my straggling Stock in order to streamline it to 15 (in line with Warren Buffetts ideal) but I am doing a rethink as they constitute less than 10 % of my portfolio ( I have 23 and about buying 4 more  and selling 12 off).

A summary of the Warren Buffet Way involves:

Choosing a few (ten to fifteen) outstanding companies that have achieved above-average returns in the past and that you believe have the a high probability of continuing their past strong performance into the future.

Allocating your investment funds proportionately, placing the biggest bets on the highest-probability events.

Leaving the portfolio largely intact for at least 5 years, and teach yourself to ride through the bumps of price volatility with equanimity (as long as things don't deteriorate) .

They key is in Stock picking.

As a GROWTH INVESTOR I bought 1,000 units of FBN Shares for [b]N6,000 and 3,000 units of UACN Property for N9,000 in 1996 as my first Stock and like you said it is only TIME that stops someone from building a N1b portfolio-it is achievable.
[/b]

My brother, all those things are easier said than done. Emotions, herd mentality etc make people to do otherwise.

Also, the peculiarity of NSE makes it unique.

yodiyokun:
@Wanaj0,

Hmmm what can I say , for once I am dumbstruck.

This should be tagged an intellectual asset because this is what it is.

This must have taken a lot of discipline, committment and hardwork.

People with such traits are hard to find and I doff my cap to you.

Thats why when you talk on this forum, everyone is eager to hear what you have to say because na expertise dey talk.

I hope you have thought about starting a consulting gig with this wealth of information you have.
A wise pastor told me last week - your most important assets should come from within (knowldege).

In this arena, you have it !
My pastoral calling will not allow me to do that. I am a pastor by calling, an engineer by training and an invesor as hobby!!!!!!!!!!

Now I know that you don't respect privacy!!!!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:08pm On Nov 29, 2007
aktopgun:
i am at work now but can hardly wait to digest this at home, thats if she doesn't go into labour tonight
My thoughts are with you and madam.

Temmie10:
na wah for you o, havent we been together on this thread for a while
abeg share the love
my brother, never you assume. taht's the first law of safety. It is proprietary information that has to be sent on a need to know basis.

Believe me, nothing spectalur about it. No analysis, no BUY or Sell information. No investment strategy etc.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:58pm On Nov 29, 2007
Temmie10:
@wanajo
please share the love grin
temietope at gmail.com
Identify yourself. Fundamentalist or suicide bomber?
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:56pm On Nov 29, 2007
aktopgun:
@wanajo

no! no! no!

i feel like i'm in seventh heaven.
may the good lord bless u real good

this makes my work and analysis so much easier. i owe u one BIG TIME man.

Respect!
That is premature ejaculation!!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:49pm On Nov 29, 2007
pumping777:
pumping777 (at) yahoo (dot) com

@Wanaj0 - See my email for here too o grin
No sweat!!!!!!!! Hope it was not junk!!!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:46pm On Nov 29, 2007
yodiyokun:
@Wanaj0,

You know my email, I wouldnt mind a copy as well
It was actually meant for you and one other person. Check your mailbox it should be there now. Just added him to it because it may be of use to him.

cheers
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:41pm On Nov 29, 2007
aktopgun:
@wanajo et pumping

all the info we collect over the next three years (god willing we are all alive and still solvent cheesy) can easily be used to start a website with uptodate analysis and info for the nigerian market, something thats lacking currently.
complete with charts and ratios and good for both fundamentalists and suicide bombers (still can't get over that joke)
aktopgun, your email is hidden. If you send me your e-mail address at ade_aoa at yahoo dot com I will send something to you now.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:33pm On Nov 29, 2007
yodiyokun:
Take it easy ooo!!! shocked shocked
Wetin happenhuh?

Let me give you another one 'Oral Diarrhoea'
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:22pm On Nov 29, 2007
pumping777:
Ok, I get you. I[b] thought you wanted me to keep track of daily prices.[/b]

It's what I already do and I shared this convenient trick on the thread yesterday (and I used the same expression "less than 1 minute!).

My price column is exactly the same as that of FSDH so once I get their report via email, I just copy and paste.
That's what you are doing already. tongue Do this for 3 years and you will have more infomation than all those analysts that write useless reports. You will have information that will be unrivalled. That's the kind of information people should be acquiring. Information is power. Investing is a long distance race. So all the premature ejaculation is nothing!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:08pm On Nov 29, 2007
pumping777:
It appears the bears are having their voice heard in the market. Hopefully some more stocks will drop prices to an attractive level.
I have a different excel sheet for valuation to compliment what I have in my portfolio manager. So I know my stock positions at any point in time.

I also have another sheet with all the buy and sell transactions for each stock. So I know my cash position at any point in time.

The ratios in the excel sheet are all automatically updated. I only have to update the projected PAT after new interim results.

My exit points are defined per stock holding and I'm alerted once there is a cross-over.

The part I don't understand is having daily prices on each stock for each year. As in have prices for around 250 trading days in the year? sad  If so, that will be toying with my day job   grin
Just copy every day from the CTSL report the daily prices and paste into a spreadsheet. You get that done in less than 1 minute!!!!!!!!!! Not sure how that affects your daily job tongue tongue

Good that you have agood grasp of what you are doing.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 1:16pm On Nov 29, 2007
pumping777:
Interesting. The angle of rights issue and the being kept abreast of any corporate actions, AGMs etc is brilliant. This is an advanced tip from a doyen.  You too try.

To avoid having a cluttered CSCS statement, I think I will actually open a new account and maintain little quanties of any stock I trade on there.

I had similar thoughts in the past but for a very different reason. In my CSCS account, when I go into the details of any stock I own, I can see the sell and buy transactions for the stock. Once I completely liquidate the stock, this information is no longer available. So I was thinking, leave a few stocks behind when you sell so you can still see these transactions.

Unfortunately I found out that these buy and sells transactions are only retained for a while so I abandoned the idea.
That new account will still get clustered. Many CSCS accounts may even get you confused with reconciliation issues.

What you need is to re arrange that your spreadsheet. Have the daily prices on one for each year. Have the results on another sheet. Same way as CTSL is sending it to you. Then have another sheet with your list of stocks and prices to arrive at your current valuation. With a comment in the excel cell you can make a note on transactions that goes on on any stock. EPS is the only thing that you need to calculate with a new result. PE can be automatically updated. That way you have a one stop information for your analysis. You can even include teh exit price you've set for yourself or teh precentage gain that you target or realised. You can have a systematic way of doing thinsg instead of the herd mentality that pervades.

You can also have a trending of the price movements.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:54pm On Nov 29, 2007
pumping777:
Over-diversification??

My preferred option is to stick to a very narrow band of stocks. This can expose one to more risks but I think it offers the best chance of highest returns.

First, I'd like to limit the number of stocks I have to monitor in detail. Next, I like to be forced to choose the stock that I think will provide the highest returns.

I will diversify by not concentrating in one sector for instance but at any point in time, if I am investing in banking stocks as an example, I want to limit my investment to the 2 or 3 that I think will bring the highest returns.

I used to have over 30 stocks in my portfolio but the discipline now is to limit my portfolio to a max of 10 stocks at any one time.
Nice option.

However experience has taught me that when I sell a stock, I still maintain minimal holdings there.

May and Baker did a PO last year at 4.00. Applied for 200,000 units in my personal name and another 100,000 units corporately. Had only 13,333 units left in May and Baker. The offer was hugely oversubsribed. The allotment was simple, existing shareholders were allotted all that they asked for. New applicants got a prorated allocation. So I got the 200,000 I applied for as an individual while I got only 20,000 from the corporate account.

Another example will be rights issue. With only 500 units in WAPCo or BCC, you will qualify for the Rights. You can now apply for more than entitled rights. Yes, rights are now traded on the NSE but it is not that easy to get.

So while you may own 30 stocks, a careful analysis of your portfolio may show that 10 may contribute 90% of your holdings. The remaning 20 or so are those that can provide you entry into juicy opportunities.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:46pm On Nov 29, 2007
pumping777:
I am very married with kids but my risk appetite is still quite high. The important thing for me is not to invest with "chop" money. Any attempt for members of my family to complain grin grin
That is key if yo do not want to sleep in the doghouse. You will always need to carry your member along in your investment plans even if they do not understand everything about it. Like the bible says, make the vision plain so that everyone that read it may run with it. With a clearly communicated investment plans and objective, you can get teh support of the family members in making extra sacrifices just to get to the envisaged destination

ololufemi:
@ Wanajo,

That's the reason why I said I want to be like you in terms of financial liquidity. You even use dividend travel abroad with your family for vacation.

My own dividends get me as far as Ghana or Gambia for vacation now and it is only for me oh.

We young ones should improve our risk appetite now because later on we may not want to take those risks.

By the time I am about 60-65, i will have  large part in money market instruments and govt bonds but for now, its riding on the NSE stocks oh.
Age and status is critical. That's why there is no universal solution.

FatherOF2:
BIG BOY BILLIONAIRE.I wonder how large huhhuh,
far from it but will be getting there shortly. tongue Just need to average 50% returns for the next couple of years. Don't need to take extra risks to get 200% returns. 50% returns is enough to take me to my envisaged destination.

Aside, I have a friend that First Bank dividend is yearly used to pay for school fees of his children. 4 of them in a highbrow schools. This is the only time that the dividend came a bit late. Normally by September the money is ready. Right on time to meet the school fees. Different people, different style/strategy.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:02pm On Nov 29, 2007
ololufemi:
@ All

Has anyone got any info on Universal Insurance. Heard they are searching for cash (Private Placement)

Lets shre it on this thread.
There is another thread on it. Personally, I believe that it is way too expensive!!!! I will let that pass.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 11:57am On Nov 29, 2007
FatherOF2:
I didn't want to talk yesterday when i heard 40 stocks.I say 40 (na wa oh,how many stock dey NSE).
Me don read many a time.Diversification is good to spread and manage your risks,BUT NEVER OVER DIVERSIFY.
Out of these 40 at least 15 will be stocks that cannot command good daily volume.You can put N200k here,N300k there and N250k there,when you add up all that small small money,they'll perform better in a well capitalized growth stock.
I dey back of Roughcut for this one (only for now oh).
Well you have over 200 stocks on the NSE. How many stocks are listed in the banking sector? How many of them will you say is a BUY? How many stocks are in the Insurance sectors? How many of them are BUYs? Now move on to the Food and Beveradges and the Petroleum marketing sector. What of the Chemical and paints and the pharmaceutical sector. after that check the building and materials, conglomerates etc.

When you finish, classify the stocks that you will want into income stocks and growth stocks. Then you will know where I am coming from.

Additionally, there are stocks that I buy just to monitor, get the full annual reports, attend the AGM, get invited to the investors forum etc. That's why 15 stocks account for over 90% of my portfolio. For me that is the only way to get the FACTS behind the figures in an environment faced with dearth of information.

If you read my posts very well, I talk about overdiversification. However, there is an age you get to that your portfolio will have to be defensive. One thing you don't get is that at a certain level, growing your portfolio becomes secondary as compared to maintaining the status quo. At a certain age, you know that there are some extra risks that are not worth taken.

Everything is not just black and white. There are other issues that governs investment decisions and philosophies.

Getting a bit religious now, what is the objective your objective of investing? Just to make moneyhuh? Many don't have a clear objective in mind. When your objective is met, it is GREED that will make you to take extra unnecessary risks. Sometimes the additional risk is unwaranted based on your portfolio size and objective.
BusinessRe: Lagos Building Investment Corporation. Private Placement by wanaj0: 7:34am On Nov 29, 2007
The Universal insurance private placement looks expensive to me!!!!!! The PE is out rageously high. You will not qualify for declaration for year 2007. Hence you may really be disadvantaged at the end of the day. Except there are material errors on the profit forecast, the PP is way too expensive by my reckoning. After the offer, there will be almost 14bn shares in issue and PAT is forecasted to be between N600m and N1.2bn over the next three years or so.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:23pm On Nov 28, 2007
RoughCut:
Not sure about the private shareholders angle i thought there were some shareholders(his cronies no doubt) that were to be alloted the shares on a preferential basis (about 20% of the shares on offer and that doesnt make them private shareholders. He offloaded 25% of his holdings in Dangote Flour to the public to satisfy the requirements for listing on the NSE. he wanted to do a PP when the SEC were giving him some hassles(they reckon the offer price of N15 was a bit on the high side) so not sure when the PP was done and i don't think there are any shares in Dangote Flour capital structure

hmmmmmmn, remains a mystery to me
Look at it this way, any company must have at least two shareholders. So who is the other shareholder(s) of Dangote flour? Same thing happened with Dangote Sugar. As at the time the company was formed/incorporated, you already have shareholders. No need for a PP for this to happen. Upon listing, it is this categories of shareholders that can 'move' the market.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:56pm On Nov 28, 2007
RoughCut:
Well even in the worst-case scenario you expect a portfolio worth N500M to be giving you at least  N125M assuming a 25% yield on a yearly basis so there'e no need injecting N2M but the point i'm trying to stress is the strategy you need to adopt to get to the N500M mark.

You are forgetting that the only shareholder in Dangote Flour is the man himself(not aware of any private shareholder though) until the certs are distributed so that basically means its a level playing field going forward so i expect  a rally and then may be after he's paid a couple of dividends the share price will definitely not break its  resistance or support level depending on the share price trending which is EXACTLY what has happened to Dangote Sugar the share price has become unresponsive to the quarterly dividend the guy is paying so Dangote Sugar is now trading within its support  and resistance channel i only expect side-ways movememt for now same will apply to Dangote Flour
There are private shareholders. However, with the imperfection in the market, you will be seeing trades right from day one that the stock is listed. It happened with Dangote Sugar and almost all the other companies. Though all animals are equal, some are more equal than the other. The registrars can decide to print and despatch your certificate last!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:38pm On Nov 28, 2007
RoughCut:
As long as the self-desclared holiday or is it garden leave as the medics would put it does not become a permanent one grin grin grin grin

Let me try and confuse you a  bit more grin grin grin

You calculate a trailing ratio either PE or EPS or PEG based on the declared figures for that company. For example if a company releases a half-year result you can calculate the trailing EPS  by dividing the PAT for the half-year period by the number of shares outstanding during the period in question and also if you want to know the trailing PE divide the current share price by the EPS you  calculated. The figures you arrive at will be trailing meaning they are based on past results for a given time frame in this instance  half-year or six months

You calculate a forward or projected ratio by extrapolating based on the figures you have at the moment. If a company releases half year figures you can EXTRAPOLATE the full-year results e.g PAT by increasing the half-year figures by a factor two(this will be accurate if the company makes the same proportion of its PAT for any given timeframe either quarterly or half-yearly) so your estimation will give you the forward or PROJECTED ratio and also ascertain the number of shares you expect to be listed for that company for the period in the future. For example if you know the number of shares for FCMB that will be listed by year-end which is April 08 then you can extrapolate the PAT for the whole year based on the half-year PAT they have declared
I will also consider the use of any interim (once it is not audited) report as projected. This is because the interim figures are also projections in their own right. I use only full audited result for trailing EPS or PE's calculation.

Note that projected figures are not necessarilly always the same. It depends on the assumption being made by the person doing the computation. I may decide to use a straight line profit growth while someone else may use another assumption. What you need is a validation of the assumptions used. Don't work towards getting similar answers because it is not rocket science. It is a subjective analysis.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:31pm On Nov 28, 2007
feelgood:
I bought nahco @ 24Naira when the ts was just lifted. After a few days dip, its been on the rise. Will it continue its rise or Is it wise for me to sell now and buy japaul? I need the money in feb.
I shall appreciate your kind advise please - fatherof2, wanajo, pumping, et al, una dey there so?
If we share similarities, I would have sold. NAHCO is over priced. Well, it dropped today to 28.00. Sold day before at 29.00. Bought at the IPO though so our situation are not the same. You need to ask yourself why you bought and what was your exit strategy.

Temmie10:
Yeah thats pretty much how to calculate sector average pes
Trailing PE is what you get when you use the last year's earnings (or last reported earnings) in calculating eps.
Forward is what you get when you use the expected/projected earnings for the current/next year.
Obviously forward PE is a bit more important because we buy a company because of expected performance.
Most times what people do is a weighted average. A straight forward average can be misleading. You also need historical PE's to show you the shift/changes taking place.

Ololufemi, on why do you think that ETI is expensivehuh?
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:40pm On Nov 28, 2007
Market today na so so!!!

Nigerian German lost today (Shigidi na you cause am OOO). NAHCO also lost as expected.

OandO crossed the 90.00 mark!!! That is great news. Inter is on the march again. Ikeja hotels is stagnant. Chellaram is stagnant!!!!

Has the technical suspension on ETI being lifted? That is a good value stock.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:27pm On Nov 28, 2007
RoughCut:
I think a better startegy will be to aim to grow the portfolio by a combination of the returns you expect from your investment and also capital injection from your personal resources i think you can reduce the time frame to achieve your goal. If you have fixed-assets as part of your portfolio( then you don't need liquidity injection) as this will grow organically without you pumpingyou are already pumping anyway in additional cash but for the liquid assets side i think you might need some more capital injection for a few more years but then it depends on the size of your liquid  portfolio and how deep your pockets are grin grin grin
pumping777:
Oh yes, I will continue to feed my portfolio with more capital and I also have other investments which should shorten the years.
Well, you get to  a level where your 'miserly' capital injection is of no use.

Actually the scenario was done with the fact that after some years, you actually stop injecting new capital and it really does not affect your bottom line. A N500m portfolio does not really 'need' a N2m yearly capital injection!!! Hope you get my drift.


RoughCut:
Please tell me you are kidding me but then i suppose that person should be on the board of directors of that company with a shareholding of  N1B

As for RedStar i put a limit on my order anything above N6 they can forget it obviously i'm not going to get it so looks like another  one slipped through my finggers not the first time smiley smiley smiley

The funny thing its this massive over-subscription of Dangote Flour Mills that will push up the price. As at the time the PO came on the market i was one of the people that said it was expensive at a PE of 15 or thereabouts i think the fair value we arrived at then was around N10 but its now looking cheap at the offer price of N15(market inefficiency) so i wont be shocked if the price shoots up to more than N25 after TS. I think the market has already priced in this scenario

It is not fundamentals that will be driving the price of Dangote flour but market sentiments but then i guess everybody already worked that one out
25m units of First Bank will not get you on the baord. Some years ago IBTC was asking people with N1bn to come forward and they will invest it and get them on the board of companies. Now, 1bn is not enough again!!!!!

Massive oversubsription will push up the price before teh common men get their shares certificate or get it into their CSCS account. Once it becomes an all comers affair, water will find its level. Definitely, market sentiment will drive the price up but it is not suatainable. Just check Dangote Sugar from N56.00 now to about N36.00

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