₦airaland Forum

My Peace, where is my Transnationwide. from 0.63 it is now 1.36!!!!!!!!

windywendy:
Thanks Temmie10! Baby's doing great.

Any new stock ideas or PPs in the horizon? I have a stash of cash waiting to be invested . . .

MTN private placment will likely start on the 7th of December. Minimum investment is US$2m. Learnt that you can pool resources together to enter. That should be good for your stashed cash!!!!!!

windywendy:
WOW! I'm gone a few weeks and look how this thread has expanded and changed Amazing. This is definitely a testimony to the talents we have in Nigeria. Keep the good work up guys!

What spreadsheet(s) is/are everyone talking about? @Pumping777 it seems there's one from you, and @Wanaj0, it seems there's one from you too. Please send me copies (email is windywendy121 at hotmail). _{Keeping up with the market is becoming more of a challenge these days . . .}

Windywendy, long time no hear!!!!!!!

The transfer pricing you talked about with Dangote Flour is about to happen now with BAGCO. So what saith thou??


[quote author=Mr. Cee link=topic=31554.msg1731829#msg1731829 date=1196354688]@ WANAJO,

Oga wanajo You know when you speak everyone listens, to select just few people to benefit from your wonderful compilation is not fair. You asked for it you made your email open I believe you should be kind enough to send the info to anyone that requested it or better still put the link on this thread so that interested people can download it. On this thread you are rated high and u should not turn your followers down.[/quote]Apologies for those offended by the selctive distribution. Like I said, it is not an article neither is it a software. It's basically historical data built over the years. Now I gave it to someone who wanted to develop a database and a website. I need to be sure that mass distribution of the same data will not jeopardise the commercial viability of his enterprise. Give me some days to check that out with him.

Like I said, no calculation is done in sheet. No alert or signals. Just historical price data of stocks dating back to 2001 and also results (quarterly and yearly) as announced on the floor since 2001. The other information is the bonus/dividend announced with dates of announcement, closure date and payment date.

So please, nothing fantastic or out of the ordinary from the spreadsheet. Moreover if you are short term/technical trader it is of little or no use.

Ignore the premature ejaculation of some people on this thread. Nothing really special. Pumping's sheet does calculation, issue elerts and many more. That's what peeps will need.

FatherOF2:
@Wanajo,

  You see  I commend your efforts. Plaudable and Plausable they're.
But its obvious we can't walk on the same road.We share very different ideals.
From all your claims,you're obviously very good at what you do.Nuff respect for that.
But try not critisize a concept you don't understand.
You're obviously a good LONG TERMER.
But you can NEVER change a very successfull SHORT TERM TRADER.

PEACE OH, lets go back to the nse.

Fatherof2, never criticize your contribution. It is not my money so why criticize. I only try to put a caveat emptor on BUY and SELL signals. Every stock recommendation will carry that. There is a reason for it. Some people here are new hence they need to know how things work.

You know what works for you. Who am I to complain so no hard feelings at all. All the best.

eniyanman:
@wanaj0

Thanks, just called their UK office, but they only deal with institutional investors. I've been asked to contact the West Africa office (in Lagos). Do you have any experience of dealing with Afrinvest West Africa?

Some changes already in their operation. Quite complex. right now, Afrinvest Uk (bought by UBA now) has little to do with Afrinvest Nigeria. Your best bet is to deal with their Lagos office.

Contact Sifashe at Afrinvestwa dot com or Bbalogun at Afrinvestwa dot com. They should be able to help you out.

Temmie10:
@fatherof2
keep your intelligent contributions coming,
what we're here to discuss is views about the market
i enjoy reading your views on NSE
The forum makes sense because theres more than one voice and more than one opinion so abeg, kp doing what you're doing,
leave the side comments alone for now,
Lets discuss the NSE,
same for wanaj0,

can't remember making side comments. This is a faceless forum for crying out loud! If I need to feel important I will not be doing it here.

Like I said, nothing personal or serious here. Everything is fun.

eniyanman:
Apologies if this has been dealt with earlier. Can anyone recommend a good stockbroker through whom I can trade from the UK.
Cheers!

I will stick out my neck for Afrinvest.

Suprisingly, Afrinvest people believe that I never say anything good about them based on my harassment!!!! Seriously, they are topnotch depending on your objective.

ololufemi:
@ Pumping

The guy that took N15 million is not the only one investing in the market.

I got a facility of about N2 million which I intend to invest instead of purchasing another car.

This applies to about 200 of my colleagues and immediate junior colleagues inclusive.

Thats about N300 million which is being financed from about 4 banks our firm has business relations with.

That is just one firm and a small part of its employees.

I remember that I met one Executive Director of a bank who was complaining that the share price of a particular organisation did not rise and he took a huge loan to purchase loads of those shares. The figure was about a hundred of million

Even banks give money to brokers to purchase their shares in the primary or secondary market and no be small money.

I no talk sey N15 million dey shake market but look at it from how many N15 million(X) where X is the number of people that borrow to invest.

Imagine if 100 people borrow N15 million each. Thats N1.5 billion.

Imagine if 1000 people borrow N5 million each. That's N5 billion

Now FCMB has come out with a product that gives you acess to about N10 million spread over 4 years

My brother, I am not looking at it from the micro-small level but from the macro-big level.

There is a lot of borrowed money in our stock market.

You are so right and that is the recipe for a crash. Well, we will only have a correction. Most of the loans are short term funds invested in Long Term investments. That is investment error 101. At maturity, the funds will be recalled and you will be forced to sell whether you made a profit or not!!! Because people collect a loan, they are 'forced' to buy at whatever prevailing price even if the price is not justified. They cannot be paying interest on idle cash. That's one of teh reasons behind the high returns on NSE this year, Companies that are not in production are having price increases.

I only hope the PFA funds are there to help or else there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

tonyjon:
STOCK FIELD MARSHAL,

What is your take with Oceanic bank plc?.

Peace.

Una don get Idi Amin for here??

dinvestor:
Kudos to all the expert analysts on this forum. I have followed this thread for a few months now and like many have said it is a wealth of information.
I have not had anything to contribute and so have not. However I feel compelled to butt in at this stage to reprimand Fatherof2 for persistently passing snide comments at Wanajo's contributions.
It defaces your (fatherof2) good contributions to this forum & detracts from the main aim of this forum, which is to share one's knowledge & experience (if they so wish).
Personally I think as with all things Nigerian, we are beginning to let our egos get the better of us.
Please let us all re-focus and remain within the boundaries of constructive criticism.
Thanks.

My brother, nothing to worry about!!! This is a faceless forum to start with. Anyone that gets angry over the internet need to get his head examined. Nothing said here take or remove from my person. So no hard feelings.

i got more punches during the Access bank PO when someone wrote a damning report on Access Bank. Though I like objectivity, in a faceless forum, you will not always get it.

I like fatherof2's contribution. It is a comic relief. But for a marathon race, I am not that bothered about what is happening at the 100m point.

pumping777:
I think you are too conservative with this figure. I'm not sure the market will notice someone with N15 Million except the person is going after penny stocks. To cause a price Tsunami in this market you need much more than that.

N15m by 1,000 people is material!!!! Most of them only hear that they make money on NSE and they jumped in. The brokers also are not helping matters. They are over trading because of the commissions they get. Really a fool and his money are soon parted

With the way things are, expect a dip in March when the financial yaer end of most bank will occur except the PFA funds comes in to help. Many people are highly geared now. I fear that some will even lose their capital with the margin facility. Not good to do things that you don't understand. Imagine people collecting loans to buy the First Bank PO!!!!

FatherOF2:
Hmmmmmmm,
THE ONE AND ONLY EXPERIENCED GUY.

unfortunately, I am too young to go with that title. Guess you give a dog a big name in order to HANG it.

There are many elders and elder emeritus on this site.

ololufemi:
@ Wanajo,

Must commend you on the spreadsheet. Similar to what FSDH has but took a lot of effort at modifying.

But that does not mean you will rest because I know my naija brothers even myself, we still like advise even when we know the thing to do.

Just to make sure.

Whether fundamentalist or suicide bombers, na person go buy wetin person wan sell and na person go sell wetin person wan buy.

This market is being dictated by these guys who take big loans to trade. I met this guy who took a loan of about N15 million to trade in stocks. Na them dey make market go see-saw but its important you know what you do.

@ Nairalanders,

be careful how you invest

If you can't take the pain, don't take the risk oh

Zenith Public Offer, a must buy and always in your best interest

If you take your eyes of the daily flunctuations and the emotional roller coaster that goes with it, things will be better.

Well for everyone that took a loan and make profit, there are others that took loans and made a loss.

have a friend who made a killing with BCC. Bought 1million units at <6.00. Sold teh bonus above 60.00. Collected a margin facility of close to N60m. Bought WAPCo at above 80.00 with the hype about bonus etc. When the result of WAPCo came out, he gave a sell order to cut his losses but WAPCo was already at 65.00 before he could buy.

With the profit from BCC, he took a risk that was not really necessary!!!!! He learnt the hard way now.

So, seen the good, the bad and the ugly!!!!

you and this your Zenith offer na wa OOOO.

Got a lot of e-mails!!! What I sent will be of no use to most people. Ignore the premature ejaculation on this thread. I sent a proprietary information which should not be on a public forum and it was meant for selected few that I believe will have need of it. It is not a SELL or BUY signal. It is not a charting software. It is really nothing special. Believe me!!!!!

Be rest assured that I will always make available for the general use information that will benefit all. I go for a win win situation.

No one should feel offended if I am not able to respond to their request. Hope there will be no hard feelings.

cheers

LondonCool:
@Wanaj0,

As a keen enthusiast of Warren Buffets "Focus Investment  Strategy"  I did raise my eyebrows when you earlier mentioned that you had around 40 Stock in your portfolio, but your later explanation about keeping tabs and opportunities on the others that made up 10% of your portfolio did make a lot of sense. I was about doing a clear out of my straggling Stock in order to streamline it to 15 (in line with Warren Buffetts ideal) but I am doing a rethink as they constitute less than 10 % of my portfolio ( I have 23 and about buying 4 more  and selling 12 off).

A summary of the Warren Buffet Way involves:

Choosing a few (ten to fifteen) outstanding companies that have achieved above-average returns in the past and that you believe have the a high probability of continuing their past strong performance into the future.

Allocating your investment funds proportionately, placing the biggest bets on the highest-probability events.

Leaving the portfolio largely intact for at least 5 years, and teach yourself to ride through the bumps of price volatility with equanimity (as long as things don't deteriorate) .

They key is in Stock picking.

As a GROWTH INVESTOR I bought 1,000 units of FBN Shares for [b]N6,000 and 3,000 units of UACN Property for N9,000 in 1996 as my first Stock and like you said it is only TIME that stops someone from building a N1b portfolio-it is achievable.

[/b]

My brother, all those things are easier said than done. Emotions, herd mentality etc make people to do otherwise.

Also, the peculiarity of NSE makes it unique.

yodiyokun:
@Wanaj0,

Hmmm what can I say , for once I am dumbstruck.

This should be tagged an intellectual asset because this is what it is.

This must have taken a lot of discipline, committment and hardwork.

People with such traits are hard to find and I doff my cap to you.

Thats why when you talk on this forum, everyone is eager to hear what you have to say because na expertise dey talk.

I hope you have thought about starting a consulting gig with this wealth of information you have.
A wise pastor told me last week - your most important assets should come from within (knowldege).

In this arena, you have it !

My pastoral calling will not allow me to do that. I am a pastor by calling, an engineer by training and an invesor as hobby!!!!!!!!!!

Now I know that you don't respect privacy!!!!!!!

aktopgun:
i am at work now but can hardly wait to digest this at home, thats if she doesn't go into labour tonight

My thoughts are with you and madam.

Temmie10:
na wah for you o, havent we been together on this thread for a while
abeg share the love

my brother, never you assume. taht's the first law of safety. It is proprietary information that has to be sent on a need to know basis.

Believe me, nothing spectalur about it. No analysis, no BUY or Sell information. No investment strategy etc.

Temmie10:
@wanajo
please share the love
temietope at gmail.com

Identify yourself. Fundamentalist or suicide bomber?

aktopgun:
@wanajo

no! no! no!

i feel like i'm in seventh heaven.
may the good lord bless u real good

this makes my work and analysis so much easier. i owe u one BIG TIME man.

Respect!

That is premature ejaculation!!!!!

pumping777:
pumping777 (at) yahoo (dot) com

@Wanaj0 - See my email for here too o

No sweat!!!!!!!! Hope it was not junk!!!!!!

yodiyokun:
@Wanaj0,

You know my email, I wouldnt mind a copy as well

It was actually meant for you and one other person. Check your mailbox it should be there now. Just added him to it because it may be of use to him.

cheers

aktopgun:
@wanajo et pumping

all the info we collect over the next three years (god willing we are all alive and still solvent ) can easily be used to start a website with uptodate analysis and info for the nigerian market, something thats lacking currently.
complete with charts and ratios and good for both fundamentalists and suicide bombers (still can't get over that joke)

aktopgun, your email is hidden. If you send me your e-mail address at ade_aoa at yahoo dot com I will send something to you now.

yodiyokun:
Take it easy ooo!!!

Wetin happen?

Let me give you another one 'Oral Diarrhoea'

pumping777:
Ok, I get you. I[b] thought you wanted me to keep track of daily prices.[/b]

It's what I already do and I shared this convenient trick on the thread yesterday (and I used the same expression "less than 1 minute!).

My price column is exactly the same as that of FSDH so once I get their report via email, I just copy and paste.

That's what you are doing already. Do this for 3 years and you will have more infomation than all those analysts that write useless reports. You will have information that will be unrivalled. That's the kind of information people should be acquiring. Information is power. Investing is a long distance race. So all the premature ejaculation is nothing!

pumping777:
It appears the bears are having their voice heard in the market. Hopefully some more stocks will drop prices to an attractive level.
I have a different excel sheet for valuation to compliment what I have in my portfolio manager. So I know my stock positions at any point in time.

I also have another sheet with all the buy and sell transactions for each stock. So I know my cash position at any point in time.

The ratios in the excel sheet are all automatically updated. I only have to update the projected PAT after new interim results.

My exit points are defined per stock holding and I'm alerted once there is a cross-over.

The part I don't understand is having daily prices on each stock for each year. As in have prices for around 250 trading days in the year?  If so, that will be toying with my day job  

Just copy every day from the CTSL report the daily prices and paste into a spreadsheet. You get that done in less than 1 minute!!!!!!!!!! Not sure how that affects your daily job

Good that you have agood grasp of what you are doing.

pumping777:
Interesting. The angle of rights issue and the being kept abreast of any corporate actions, AGMs etc is brilliant. This is an advanced tip from a doyen.  You too try.

To avoid having a cluttered CSCS statement, I think I will actually open a new account and maintain little quanties of any stock I trade on there.

I had similar thoughts in the past but for a very different reason. In my CSCS account, when I go into the details of any stock I own, I can see the sell and buy transactions for the stock. Once I completely liquidate the stock, this information is no longer available. So I was thinking, leave a few stocks behind when you sell so you can still see these transactions.

Unfortunately I found out that these buy and sells transactions are only retained for a while so I abandoned the idea.

That new account will still get clustered. Many CSCS accounts may even get you confused with reconciliation issues.

What you need is to re arrange that your spreadsheet. Have the daily prices on one for each year. Have the results on another sheet. Same way as CTSL is sending it to you. Then have another sheet with your list of stocks and prices to arrive at your current valuation. With a comment in the excel cell you can make a note on transactions that goes on on any stock. EPS is the only thing that you need to calculate with a new result. PE can be automatically updated. That way you have a one stop information for your analysis. You can even include teh exit price you've set for yourself or teh precentage gain that you target or realised. You can have a systematic way of doing thinsg instead of the herd mentality that pervades.

You can also have a trending of the price movements.

pumping777:
Over-diversification??

My preferred option is to stick to a very narrow band of stocks. This can expose one to more risks but I think it offers the best chance of highest returns.

First, I'd like to limit the number of stocks I have to monitor in detail. Next, I like to be forced to choose the stock that I think will provide the highest returns.

I will diversify by not concentrating in one sector for instance but at any point in time, if I am investing in banking stocks as an example, I want to limit my investment to the 2 or 3 that I think will bring the highest returns.

I used to have over 30 stocks in my portfolio but the discipline now is to limit my portfolio to a max of 10 stocks at any one time.

Nice option.

However experience has taught me that when I sell a stock, I still maintain minimal holdings there.

May and Baker did a PO last year at 4.00. Applied for 200,000 units in my personal name and another 100,000 units corporately. Had only 13,333 units left in May and Baker. The offer was hugely oversubsribed. The allotment was simple, existing shareholders were allotted all that they asked for. New applicants got a prorated allocation. So I got the 200,000 I applied for as an individual while I got only 20,000 from the corporate account.

Another example will be rights issue. With only 500 units in WAPCo or BCC, you will qualify for the Rights. You can now apply for more than entitled rights. Yes, rights are now traded on the NSE but it is not that easy to get.

So while you may own 30 stocks, a careful analysis of your portfolio may show that 10 may contribute 90% of your holdings. The remaning 20 or so are those that can provide you entry into juicy opportunities.

pumping777:
I am very married with kids but my risk appetite is still quite high. The important thing for me is not to invest with "chop" money. Any attempt for members of my family to complain

That is key if yo do not want to sleep in the doghouse. You will always need to carry your member along in your investment plans even if they do not understand everything about it. Like the bible says, make the vision plain so that everyone that read it may run with it. With a clearly communicated investment plans and objective, you can get teh support of the family members in making extra sacrifices just to get to the envisaged destination

ololufemi:
@ Wanajo,

That's the reason why I said I want to be like you in terms of financial liquidity. You even use dividend travel abroad with your family for vacation.

My own dividends get me as far as Ghana or Gambia for vacation now and it is only for me oh.

We young ones should improve our risk appetite now because later on we may not want to take those risks.

By the time I am about 60-65, i will have  large part in money market instruments and govt bonds but for now, its riding on the NSE stocks oh.

Age and status is critical. That's why there is no universal solution.

FatherOF2:
BIG BOY BILLIONAIRE.I wonder how large ,

far from it but will be getting there shortly. Just need to average 50% returns for the next couple of years. Don't need to take extra risks to get 200% returns. 50% returns is enough to take me to my envisaged destination.

Aside, I have a friend that First Bank dividend is yearly used to pay for school fees of his children. 4 of them in a highbrow schools. This is the only time that the dividend came a bit late. Normally by September the money is ready. Right on time to meet the school fees. Different people, different style/strategy.

ololufemi:
@ All

Has anyone got any info on Universal Insurance. Heard they are searching for cash (Private Placement)

Lets shre it on this thread.

There is another thread on it. Personally, I believe that it is way too expensive!!!! I will let that pass.

FatherOF2:
I didn't want to talk yesterday when i heard 40 stocks.I say 40 (na wa oh,how many stock dey NSE).
Me don read many a time.Diversification is good to spread and manage your risks,BUT NEVER OVER DIVERSIFY.
Out of these 40 at least 15 will be stocks that cannot command good daily volume.You can put N200k here,N300k there and N250k there,when you add up all that small small money,they'll perform better in a well capitalized growth stock.
I dey back of Roughcut for this one (only for now oh).

Well you have over 200 stocks on the NSE. How many stocks are listed in the banking sector? How many of them will you say is a BUY? How many stocks are in the Insurance sectors? How many of them are BUYs? Now move on to the Food and Beveradges and the Petroleum marketing sector. What of the Chemical and paints and the pharmaceutical sector. after that check the building and materials, conglomerates etc.

When you finish, classify the stocks that you will want into income stocks and growth stocks. Then you will know where I am coming from.

Additionally, there are stocks that I buy just to monitor, get the full annual reports, attend the AGM, get invited to the investors forum etc. That's why 15 stocks account for over 90% of my portfolio. For me that is the only way to get the FACTS behind the figures in an environment faced with dearth of information.

If you read my posts very well, I talk about overdiversification. However, there is an age you get to that your portfolio will have to be defensive. One thing you don't get is that at a certain level, growing your portfolio becomes secondary as compared to maintaining the status quo. At a certain age, you know that there are some extra risks that are not worth taken.

Everything is not just black and white. There are other issues that governs investment decisions and philosophies.

Getting a bit religious now, what is the objective your objective of investing? Just to make money? Many don't have a clear objective in mind. When your objective is met, it is GREED that will make you to take extra unnecessary risks. Sometimes the additional risk is unwaranted based on your portfolio size and objective.

The Universal insurance private placement looks expensive to me!!!!!! The PE is out rageously high. You will not qualify for declaration for year 2007. Hence you may really be disadvantaged at the end of the day. Except there are material errors on the profit forecast, the PP is way too expensive by my reckoning. After the offer, there will be almost 14bn shares in issue and PAT is forecasted to be between N600m and N1.2bn over the next three years or so.

RoughCut:
Not sure about the private shareholders angle i thought there were some shareholders(his cronies no doubt) that were to be alloted the shares on a preferential basis (about 20% of the shares on offer and that doesnt make them private shareholders. He offloaded 25% of his holdings in Dangote Flour to the public to satisfy the requirements for listing on the NSE. he wanted to do a PP when the SEC were giving him some hassles(they reckon the offer price of N15 was a bit on the high side) so not sure when the PP was done and i don't think there are any shares in Dangote Flour capital structure

hmmmmmmn, remains a mystery to me

Look at it this way, any company must have at least two shareholders. So who is the other shareholder(s) of Dangote flour? Same thing happened with Dangote Sugar. As at the time the company was formed/incorporated, you already have shareholders. No need for a PP for this to happen. Upon listing, it is this categories of shareholders that can 'move' the market.

RoughCut:
Well even in the worst-case scenario you expect a portfolio worth N500M to be giving you at least  N125M assuming a 25% yield on a yearly basis so there'e no need injecting N2M but the point i'm trying to stress is the strategy you need to adopt to get to the N500M mark.

You are forgetting that the only shareholder in Dangote Flour is the man himself(not aware of any private shareholder though) until the certs are distributed so that basically means its a level playing field going forward so i expect  a rally and then may be after he's paid a couple of dividends the share price will definitely not break its  resistance or support level depending on the share price trending which is EXACTLY what has happened to Dangote Sugar the share price has become unresponsive to the quarterly dividend the guy is paying so Dangote Sugar is now trading within its support  and resistance channel i only expect side-ways movememt for now same will apply to Dangote Flour

There are private shareholders. However, with the imperfection in the market, you will be seeing trades right from day one that the stock is listed. It happened with Dangote Sugar and almost all the other companies. Though all animals are equal, some are more equal than the other. The registrars can decide to print and despatch your certificate last!

RoughCut:
As long as the self-desclared holiday or is it garden leave as the medics would put it does not become a permanent one

Let me try and confuse you a  bit more

You calculate a trailing ratio either PE or EPS or PEG based on the declared figures for that company. For example if a company releases a half-year result you can calculate the trailing EPS  by dividing the PAT for the half-year period by the number of shares outstanding during the period in question and also if you want to know the trailing PE divide the current share price by the EPS you  calculated. The figures you arrive at will be trailing meaning they are based on past results for a given time frame in this instance  half-year or six months

You calculate a forward or projected ratio by extrapolating based on the figures you have at the moment. If a company releases half year figures you can EXTRAPOLATE the full-year results e.g PAT by increasing the half-year figures by a factor two(this will be accurate if the company makes the same proportion of its PAT for any given timeframe either quarterly or half-yearly) so your estimation will give you the forward or PROJECTED ratio and also ascertain the number of shares you expect to be listed for that company for the period in the future. For example if you know the number of shares for FCMB that will be listed by year-end which is April 08 then you can extrapolate the PAT for the whole year based on the half-year PAT they have declared

I will also consider the use of any interim (once it is not audited) report as projected. This is because the interim figures are also projections in their own right. I use only full audited result for trailing EPS or PE's calculation.

Note that projected figures are not necessarilly always the same. It depends on the assumption being made by the person doing the computation. I may decide to use a straight line profit growth while someone else may use another assumption. What you need is a validation of the assumptions used. Don't work towards getting similar answers because it is not rocket science. It is a subjective analysis.