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Wanaj0's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:58pm On Nov 14, 2007
RoughCut:
You hedge your risks by making sure you will not need to 'sell' to repay the loan

Do you have any updates regarding the zenith/ETB 'arrangement' or is it a far-fetched speculation?
One major issue with investment is managing your emotions. It becomes more difficult when you have borrowed money involved. Most often your emotions take over the decision making process. You will be surprised at the kind of decisions people make once borrowed money is involved. Panic becomes the key word!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:14pm On Nov 14, 2007
Chellarams still holding forth. waiting for Nigerian German to start another rally. Facing resistance at the 19.00 mark.

RoughCut:
It might be cheaper if you want to go down that route interest rates are low compared to Nigeria and you probably request it for a fixed period of time (fixed-term)
Yes interest rates are much lower. But when you use a loan/margin, your emotions tend to get more into your reasoning. have many around me now passing through 'counselling' for using short term loans (one year) for long term investment (capital market)

For you to do that successfully, you must be a technical trader. I'm sure you know that technical traders tend to take on much more risks.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 11:34am On Nov 14, 2007
MyPeace:
Re: Red Star Express

Since they are listed as Red Star Express, does it mean FEDEX revenue/profit will be excluded from the total revenue/profit of the year?

l know Fedex the international partner has alot influence on the performance of Red Star Express.
Red Star Express is the company that is listed and not FEDEX. So the revenue/profit of FEDEX does not impact on Red Star Express at all.

I think Red Star is planning for an IPO. No date yet but it was mentioned not too long ago.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 6:49am On Nov 14, 2007
AS at the tme of the private placement of Red Star Express, it was a STRONG BUY. Unfortunately, IBTC rationed the thing! Can't lay my hand on the prospectus right now.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:22pm On Nov 13, 2007
Red Star will be listed tomorrow. Place order and hope you get to buy. tongue

Wema seems to have lost steam. No 5% gain today.

Chellarams is still on the move.

AP result not that impressive
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:29pm On Nov 12, 2007
alliednetw:
CUTIX PLC UNAUDITED RESULT FOR 1ST QUARTER ENDED
JULY 31 2007.
2007 2006
TURNOVER N18.3m N246.0m
PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION N43.4m N65.3m
TAXATION (N15.2m) (N22.9m)
PROFIT AFTER TAXATION N28.2m N42.5m


This stock did a high of over 22naira few weeks back when they did 1 for 1.
Now the price is 7.50
Please what does the above result say of the company's performance?
Dwindling performance!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:29pm On Nov 09, 2007
jehosaphat:
Thanks Wanajo.
What stocks are you gunning for in 2008?
I know you have an interest in Diamondbank, Transexpress and such. What else is in your gunsights? Abi make we move this question to "Stocks for "08"?
2008 is still far so softle softly. Many things can still happen.

Based on what I know now, Dunlop will be a good candidate especially at a price of about 2.50.

Flour Mills is also solid.

Depending on actions in the petroleum marketing sector, I am looking seriously at OandO. Next year may just be their year.

May and Baker is also on my list. Same for Nigerian German which is a very good stock by my reckoning.

However, lets wait and see 2008 first. Our time are in HIS hands.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:15pm On Nov 09, 2007
jehosaphat:
Meanwhile has anyone heard about Obajana Cement? Are we reserving money for it or what? Is it coming to a market near me? grin
Nothing yet on Obajana. They will have to file an application first with SEC before you even start to talk of timing. So, let's wait for that.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 7:11pm On Nov 09, 2007
Geees:
So where does that keep the share holders,
I have faith in the Atedo man, guess i also have to watch Presco though he doesn't seem to be high up in management.
Cheers
Well, he adviced them to sell their shares to STANBIC. If they don't na there own be that. He siad he was selling and expect others to sell. If he was not selling, no way the merger/acquisition would have succeeded.

As per PRESCO, that a deal that went awry! IBTC was the underwritter for an offer that was undersusbcribed. Same thing they did with First Aluminium. They ahd to pay up for the shares that were not atken up. It was so much that they got seats on the board of the two poorly performing companies!!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 7:02pm On Nov 09, 2007
Geees:
I also think IBTC are "tired" of doing biz or their model is not strong because I can't understand how they run a top investment arm like IBTC and could not read the market trends to allow themselve to be swallowed.
I hope the Investement farm is still vibrant.

Thanks for the post
Peterside never believed in the consolidation exercise. He tried to halt it but like a moving train, Soludo pressed on. He still want to practice only investment banking. Not interested in retail banking at all. Rather unfortunately for Chartered, the ECO-Chartered planned merger did not hold. Hence they could only go the way of IBTC. Peterside simply cashed out by selling to Standard Bank. He is tired of the Nigerian Banking environment. He was basically left behind.

He is no longer the MD but now chairman of the new bank. Same wat TM Mbu was the chairman of Stanbic! Figurehead!!!




tonyjon:
This is a welcome development. I strongly believe that the rate at which the banking sector is rushing back to raise money through IPOs/POs is gradually getting out of hands.

It's high time the regulatory bodies put a stop to this. They have succeeded in mopping up almost all the money in circulation and they are still yawning for more.

Nigerian economy can never develop without the manufacturing sector contributing tremendously and the manufacturing sector is the most important sector in every economy( every sector of the economy should run pari pasu).
The rate at which the banking sector is raising money, it will be very difficult for other sectors of the economy to develop. I think CBN and SEC just have to wake up and do something before it's too late.

Peace.
Manufacturing can always raise money. With the rule of underwritting all offers, who will underwrite most of the manufacturing companies? With bad infrastructures they are not attractive to investors. Check the NSE and see where the trades are. Even if the banks are not out, investors will rather buy the banks on the NSE rather than the so called Onwuka Biz type of manufacturing companies. The good ones still have takers. But it is no longer an allcomers affair. Ask Transcorp. At a time when Dangote Sugar and Dunlop were seriously OVER subscribed, Transcorp was a paltry 26%.

It is not the banks preventing the manufacturing from coming out. Dunlop, may and Baker, Dangote, Ja Paul just showed that. For those that cannot, they can go for loans at least the interest rate is coming down!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 6:39pm On Nov 09, 2007
no_shaking:
Food for thought!!!

According to NSE DG on TV today, about 5 banks recently submitted application re. public offers and were told to hold fire for now till NSE seeks further clarification with the CBN re. the likely adverse effects of this avalanche of banks' POs on the economy etc

Besides, she opined that the banks are beginning to muscle-out the mfging companies etc from successful outing of their respective IPOs and that this has to be swiftly mitigated.

More importantly, the govt is beginning to seriously moan , ! And everyone seems to have serious reservation against banks coming back to the market the second/third time all within 3 years. Question is - what happenned to the 3 year biz plan they submitted in their then prospectus during their initial IPOs/POs (, coming back to the market wasn't part of the plan?? I tire o!!).

Anyway, let's see how the whole situation would unfold itself , This is Nigeria! We've heard all these before!!!
Manufacturing firms don't need to raise equity, they can use debt especially with the stability of the exchange rate and fall of interest rate. With well capitalised banks, the environment has changed. While I understand the concerns of the manufacturing companies, if they are good enough, let them come. Dangote came, BAGCO is coming even Ja Paul did teh same thing. May and Baker came last year. Eterna Oil did the same this year. So no point complaining. They should compete for the funds. We don't want another Onwuke Intertek type of IPO's again.

As per the banks business plans, you fine tune based on current realities. The  banks can now see the opportunity in being big so they don't want to waste time. You you do, you will get swallowed like IBTC.

Don't forget that CBN also modified the rule by talking about the $1bn shareholders fund to manage the reserves. Who will not want to manage the reserves. $500m is not  a joke.

Expect the banks to get bigger. Plan of CBN is to have Nigerian banks in the top 50-100. He said this some two years ago. So we better prepare for more of the offers, GDR, debt etc. With FG saying that JV funds for the oil industry will now be sourced through banks, you will soon see the banks going for $10b shareholders funds. If FBN took all its subscription, they will be close to the $5bn mark by now! Mind you First Bank last came to the market 2003 and that was even a rights issue.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:59pm On Nov 09, 2007
Chellarams still holding steady. Good one.

Capital Oil also still advancing.

Transexpress no surface for market.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:56pm On Nov 09, 2007
pumping777:
For one, Ikeja Hotel is inviting with a forward PE of 8.8. I really believe in numbers, The PP investors are taking profit.
Thought they did an IPO. I just hope the figures are right. The owners of Ikeja Hotels and Tourist Company are the same and I don't think they are well managed neither are they reaping huge profits. Just be sure that the figures are right and thread with care!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:52pm On Nov 09, 2007
ferugio:
Gurus,

Re: FBN allocation.

In a situation like this, is the refund paid with interest or not considering the fund was held in a special interest earning account for such a long period of time?
Interesthuh? That na awoof money for the issuing house/registrars. Now you know why some offers take a long time. First Bank will just be getting the money now.


easimoni:
Pumping,
are you watching Ikeja Hotel's free fall? I'm going to become a hotel owner on Monday. grin (at least 1% of 1% of the hotel)
Ikeja hotels kehuh? Softly softly OOO.

What is the difference between Ikeja hotels and Tourism company of Nigeria?
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 11:48am On Nov 09, 2007
RoughCut:
Soludo is not being realistic between you and me we know that more than 90% of the debt instruments these 'BIG' banks have so far used in raising capital are from offshore sources. Give me one 'BIG' bank(may be excluding First bank and UBN) that does not have a substantial amount of debt stock on their balance sheet and the funny thing most of the debt and debenture stocks are convertible instruments which means at maturity the holders of these instruments can elect to convert to preference or ordinary shares

So who is Soludo fooling?
CBN will not give any of the BIG bank the approval to raise convertible debt that will make them target of a takeover!!!!! It is not a matter of Soludo fooling anyone. His point is simple, let them come and establish in Nigeria. They can come and establish the BIGGEST bank here and compete. But to just come and acquire one of our own BIG banks, that's what he said CBN will not allow.

Hope you know that your Access, FCMB and co are not aprt of the BIG banks tongue
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 10:18am On Nov 09, 2007
MyPeace:
BTW, if I am the architect of my life who is the builderhuh??
God is the Builder. You first decide/design the direction of your life, then God lead the way, on the otherside, if u decide/design a wrong direction, DEVIL leads the way. So up to you!! cheesy grin
Make we take this discussion go somehwere else!

If I have to decide then I am on the wrong path. There is a way that seemeth right to a man but the end thereof is, I am the builder. That's why I need to be careful what kind of material I use to build.

Hope we will not be banned!
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 10:16am On Nov 09, 2007
RoughCut:
Can you believe this Soludo guy? i have just read a report where he was quoted as saying that CBN will not allow any more foreign take-over of domestic banks and that there would a cap on the equity stakes by foreign investors in nigerian banks.

My question is how are the banks supposed to compete on the global stage if willing investors are limited in what they can invest in these banks ? the truth of the matter is there is a limit to which these banks can continue to raise funds from the local capital market (no wonder Zenith has approached the market 3 times in the last 4 years)

Foreign take-over, yes may be that needs to be disallowed at least for now but putting a cap on the amount of capital offshore investors can invest is non-starter for me.

I hope this guy has not overstayed his welcome!!
na wa o
That na old news! Foreign investors will not be allowed to take over our 'BIG' banks. However they can come and establish there own BIG bank in Nigeria. Equity is not the only way of raising capital. You can use debt to also raise capital.

Soludo will put a cap so as to prevent a take over. If they need money, banks can use debt to raise the needed capital.
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 8:13am On Nov 09, 2007
MyPeace:
Roughcut, l don't have that share, as u may believe.
well when you get, you go allocate am to me OOOO.

BTW, if I am the architect of my life who is the builderhuh??
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 8:10am On Nov 09, 2007
RoughCut:
May be i will keep my ACCESS then.

To matters in hand what say thou about Transnationwide express? have you made any headway i don dey beg Mypeace now she no gree answer me again
Don't know whether you should keep Access. But do your calculation and you will see that Access has delivered superior shareholder returns. That is a fact. You are angry with the reconstruction that reduces your number of units but it increased your VALUE which is the important thing!

Never got Trans Express. My Peace to no get. She don tire for my harrassment also. Na small remain make she report me give her husband. So make we just forget about am dey look at something else. No be all meat man must chop!
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 7:37am On Nov 09, 2007
RoughCut:
Na true true you talk my brother i have made a lot of money on this stock since 04 from N1.65 but somehow i don't think its the fundamentals that's driven the share price to where it is today. The funny thing its my first stock on the NSE and its the single largest holding in my portfolio may be that's why i'm getting frustrated with them

First bank is the big elephant in the equation i have decided to ignore not my cup of tea
First Bank will always be a core holding for me.

Never liked Access Bank but since the take over by AIG and co, they've DELIVERED to shareholders. If you remove sentiments and calculate your return, you will be surprised that it is one of the BEST performing stocks in your portfolio.

Same way I don't like Union Bank (at least ot again), but they sure deliver superior shareholder return. Even better than First Bank. So cut Access some slack!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 7:25am On Nov 09, 2007
dollarmani:
Guys,

We have not seen anything yet ooo. I read today in the news segment of the nigeriansecurities website about govts proposal to fund their cashcalls through finacing from NIgerian banks. Can you imagine what $10Billion in a loans provided by Nigerian banks will do to the income of all this banks. I have had people ask me where the income of bank's raising this huge sums will eventually come from. There you are.

As regards insurance, i believe this is the time to buy insurance shares. They do not have a choice but to shape up to take advantage of the local content policy that forces multinationals to cede currently about 40% of their insurance needs to local companies. The plan by govt is to get it to 80%. Jimoh Ibrahim willsomehow eventually settle for something that will not disrupt the sector. So much is at risk for the rule of law to take its course here. It is what they call here in America "Matters of National Security". An Uncoventional
approach to setllement may be resorted to here.

UNIC

Unic has some serious technocrats who understand insurance. They are at this time refocusing and working hard in their pioneer status in the health care insurance business. They are taking a deliberate approach in building life, health and oil /gas portfolios.
Agree with all you said apart from the bolded part. UNIC plan was to divest from non life business. UNIC is not involved in oil/gas portfolios. UNIC is concentrating on Life and Health insurance, building a recreation centre in VGC. I love the business model. I have strong faith in them even though the profit right now is way below my expectation.

UNIC could not meet the requirement fro operating Life and Non Life business. The last PO was undersubscribed.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 7:21am On Nov 09, 2007
Geees:
Am wondering why you are interested in Chellarams Wanaj0. Share the news,

From what i have seen on their web site and my little knowledge of the Lagos market at least they should be making huge profit, because they are marketing abi distributing all kinds of products. Close to a conglomerate. No definite focus which I think isn't too good sha.
But they are shrouded in some mystery no financials on the web site which would make me not interested in them until they get a bit more open about what they are doing.

They sure are a coy to watch
Gees like one of my friends will say, na website we go chop!!!!! Flour Mills, Ashaka do not even have a website!!!!!! Check the Dangote group website and you will see nothing.

Chellarams is making money! They are a conglomerate. And if you know anything about Indians, they are specialist in trading. Import and Export business is their core competence. All what I know about Chellarams is in the public domain. They are a very profitable company. They always realese their results about 8 months after the finnacial year end. They've talked about raisng capital but I am still waiting for it.

By teh way, Nigeria German was to raise capital (not PO) also by Q3/Q4 this year. No news yet about that.
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 6:19pm On Nov 08, 2007
RoughCut:
Doesn't look like ACCESS is going anywhere at the minute
Your bad belle for Access serious OOOO. Do your calculations well and you will see that you have made a LOT of money from ACCESS. (never really likes Access).

As to it not going anywhere, what do you expect? Where has First Bank gone since its PO? Let's wait and see where Fidelity and co will co. The liquidity that drove the market in the first half of the year is no longer there. PFA funds are also not available. That's why you are seeing a slow down. Times like this presents opportunity to go for fairly/undervalued stocks.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 6:03pm On Nov 08, 2007
nazzyon:
Is there any perfect explanation Oceanic Bank's falling?
Perfect explanationhuh? Okay share prices always go up and down in the short term!!!!!!!

But trully, Oceanic has tried. It will be <30.00 until the result is out. Not epxecting it to go past 33.00.
InvestmentRe: Stocks That Can Make You Rich In 2007 by wanaj0: 5:45pm On Nov 08, 2007
RoughCut:
Correct me if i'm wrong this share reconstruction for bank PHB is not technically a reverse split there was a merger between habib bank and Platinum and they exchanged the shares between the two banks' shareholders in the ratio you mentioned and that's how bank PHB came to be. Check again there was no share recosntruction.
ACCESS did a share reconstruction 2 for 1(may be as a result of the banks they acquired) by doubling the price and reducing in half the shares outstanding so that way the shareholders do not see a reduction in the value of their holding this is is no way comparable to the situation with habib and platinum
Bank BHP did a share reconstruction. As at 26th April, the price was 5.43. On the 27th of April it was 17.10. It was the same thing that ACCESS did. After the private placement and merger with Habib, the issued share was so huge that without share reconstruction, no way the share price will move up!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:37pm On Nov 08, 2007
shigidi:
wanajo if they are so hot why will you allow a po pass. this coy. looks hot
PO comes after the people don chop clean mouth! You mean I should scramble after a PO whose share price was 1.59 at the beginning of the year but now @ 6.99. Don't forget the year end was in March so any PO now will not benefit from the BONUS tongue that they may give us next year!

I only buy PO's of companies that I plan to own for life if there is anything like that.
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:22pm On Nov 08, 2007
pumping777:
You are not the only one at all but getting the stock is another matter. Only 15,000 units were sold today. I've given up looking for the stock after 2 weeks of trying.
My brother the thing tire me OOOO. Wanted to BUY more this year @ 1.83 but no show!!!! Had some small unit that was bought at <N1.00 some 2/3 years ago. Collected 15k dividend many times plus a bonus of 1 for 1. They will definitely come out for their long over due PO but I will allow that to PASS!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:17pm On Nov 08, 2007
RoughCut:
I think they will mark down the price by the amount of dividend they are paying which is N1.00 so if you have made more 100% on the stock since the PO then i'm sure you can afford to live with selling your holding including your bonus less the dividend afterall the dividend is going in your pocket by the way

So nothing lost
Waiting for dividend sets you back by 10% tax that you pay on the dividend!!!! Also, most often whe time spent waiting for th bonus certificate is not worth. Definitely not for a non performing company like Union Bank!!!!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:14pm On Nov 08, 2007
Anybody watching CHELLARAMShuh?? Na only me dey look amhuh?? EPS of 0.94. At N6.99, PE is 7.40. Using a PE of 10.00, you are talking about N9.00 minimum! Gained 4.95% today with only one deal and total trade of 15,000 units!

Any CHELLARAMS shareholder herehuhhuh?
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:09pm On Nov 08, 2007
pumping777:
Well, Oando is on course. I remain loyal.
On course to wherehuh? ABEG, forget all those petroleum marketing companies. Until you have FULL deregulation, no show for them!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:05pm On Nov 08, 2007
RoughCut:
Make sure you receive confirmation of your bonus before you sell so that way you have more to sell and of course your dividend. Did the same in anger
What use is the UBN bonus? Abeg make dem carry go! Slleping giant. Old bank with archaic ways! Making in a year what First Bank is making in 6 months!
InvestmentRe: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:02pm On Nov 08, 2007
shigidi:
@ wanajo,
diamond at 30 naira is a bit optimistic in my book. their forecast eps is 1.2, and lets not forget they are still planning a po.
maybe 25naira will be better.
Look at it this way. 6 months PAT is N5.8bn. Actually Q2 PAT was about N3.2b. If you assume the same thing for the remaining two quarters you are talking of about N12.2bn. This has not taken into consideration the ACTIS fund that they just recieved. Note also that most banks seems to generate more profit in the last two quarters. So, a full year PAT of N12b to N15b is more like it which gives an EPS of 1.3 to 1.6. At a PE of 20, you are talking of a price of 26.00 to 30.00.

Don't see them doing an offer before the current year end. Even if they do, it will likely be a GDR.  I expect them to push the price UP before any offer so that they don't get too much share in issue. Union Bank is regretting going for the offer too early!

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